Pre-Spring Training Blues
Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:21 am
Finally it is February. The same month where baseball wakes up, does the proverbial nut-scratch, and gets back to playing. I really envy you Arizona and Florida guys who are able to get a six-week jump on the rest of us.
Normally for me, this is when prep for the NFBC hits high gear. Not this year though. My job really reeks right now and is “in-transition” which of course means I am out. I will have a new job somewhere, sometime mid-year when this gig ends. It is a shame too because it was pretty cool here for a very long time. Oh well, with “transition” comes a lot of down time which means I have been in high gear looking at the 2012 campaign for some time now.
That being said (or written), I have finished my rankings of the players. For base information, I use prior year stats and Baseball HQ projections to start me on my rankings though this year I have also looked at Todd and the Masterball team’s excellent work too as well as The Bill James Handbook. To me, three primary sources is the max I can assimilate but this year I went a little overboard. There are some consistencies to my approach, but each year I also run down a few different bunny trails.
I generally do not use stuff from the newsstand. They are typically too general, aimed at guys who have 8-team mixed superstar leagues and where Elvis Andrus is a “sleeper”. Boredom has driven me to pick up a couple this year despite myself and for material to take with me to the men’s room. Lindy’s Sports Baseball 2012 Preview is actually a nice read but by no means waste your money on Sporting News Fantasy Source. It is not even worth leaving in the can to be used for “emergency” situations.
Anyway, I lump the players into groups pretty much I imagine how most do…OF, C, MI, CM, SP and CL/MR. With so many players with multiple positions, to me it is counter productive to break down further (i.e. SS, 2B, 1B, 3B). And I ignore DH’s. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, there are just not that many who qualify only as a DH. I know Ortiz, Butler, Hafner, and Montero are there, but lack of position limits my roster flexibility too much. I know some think Montero will get at least 10 games in at catcher, and he might. With Olivo (pre-season noise from Wedge says he is the starter) and Jaso on the roster, I just do not know when. Here is a good betting idea…who gets qualification first? Jesus Montero at catcher or Mark Trumbo at third? Over/under anyone? My bet is never and never.
After competing at this level (or I should say against this level) for so long, no earth shattering revelations jumped up. Almost everyone agrees that third base is just about as dry as catcher this year. This is the second year it has been so bad in my opinion. Last year people were jumping on McGehee in the top 10 rounds because it was so thin. This year, the “irrational exuberance” is tied to Lawrie who is generally being drafted in the third/fourth round, just turned 22, broke a finger in September, and has 150 AB of major league experience. I may be all wet about this guy, but that is just panic buying to me. I think, however, that those who can poach a proven contributor at the position early will be able to sit back on their heals and giggle at the rest of us as we squeak out “Chipper Jones” late.
For the snake draft, I have the players ranked and placed in levels broken down by differences of 5 “units” roughly approximating auction value. Strictly speaking, I do not use the same numbers for my auctions that I do with my snake drafts. Using auction values in a snake draft is like mixing anti-freeze with motor oil. They are related, but serve different functions in the machine. Auction values are driven as much by tactics (stars versus scrubs for example) and snake drafts are more about opportunity cost. My snake draft numbers are more about relative ranking than about resource allocation or price.
Then, I take those values and break MI and CM into four general tiers, catcher two, outfield six, starting pitching seven, and relievers three. The reason why is pretty obvious given the make up of our starting 23.
In essence, this becomes my starting point for all the subsequent tweaking. Now all I need is to follow the spring training activities…injuries, trades, free agent acquisitions, and general batting orders, especially as it has to do with lead-off hitters, #3 hitters, and clean-up hitters. Those positions in the batting order GENERALLY do not change except via injury. At least that is what I learned in Fantasy Camp at the “Getting the most AB out of your roster!” seminar.
But with so much time on my hands, I will now be digging deeper into some of my projections. This may be dangerous because I am one of those people who sometimes forget an AB is just an AB, so I could outsmart myself trying to outsmart the people in my league.
A few other general impressions. One, the dearth of quality defensive catchers in starting roles means that stolen bases will stay at the high level we have now as opposed to four or five years ago. It may not go up, but I do not think stolen bases will decline appreciably.
Second, much of what I have read has given me the impression that most think that outfield is a deep position. I just do not see it. After my top 45 at that position, I think it gets real scary. By the time most get even to their fourth outfielders, the available players will rank not much different than the lower level of guys I would consider for my middle-infielder position.
I have a few others, but I should not give away all my “secrets”!
Please accept these dribblings as what they are…an exercise in my boredom.
Normally for me, this is when prep for the NFBC hits high gear. Not this year though. My job really reeks right now and is “in-transition” which of course means I am out. I will have a new job somewhere, sometime mid-year when this gig ends. It is a shame too because it was pretty cool here for a very long time. Oh well, with “transition” comes a lot of down time which means I have been in high gear looking at the 2012 campaign for some time now.
That being said (or written), I have finished my rankings of the players. For base information, I use prior year stats and Baseball HQ projections to start me on my rankings though this year I have also looked at Todd and the Masterball team’s excellent work too as well as The Bill James Handbook. To me, three primary sources is the max I can assimilate but this year I went a little overboard. There are some consistencies to my approach, but each year I also run down a few different bunny trails.
I generally do not use stuff from the newsstand. They are typically too general, aimed at guys who have 8-team mixed superstar leagues and where Elvis Andrus is a “sleeper”. Boredom has driven me to pick up a couple this year despite myself and for material to take with me to the men’s room. Lindy’s Sports Baseball 2012 Preview is actually a nice read but by no means waste your money on Sporting News Fantasy Source. It is not even worth leaving in the can to be used for “emergency” situations.
Anyway, I lump the players into groups pretty much I imagine how most do…OF, C, MI, CM, SP and CL/MR. With so many players with multiple positions, to me it is counter productive to break down further (i.e. SS, 2B, 1B, 3B). And I ignore DH’s. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, there are just not that many who qualify only as a DH. I know Ortiz, Butler, Hafner, and Montero are there, but lack of position limits my roster flexibility too much. I know some think Montero will get at least 10 games in at catcher, and he might. With Olivo (pre-season noise from Wedge says he is the starter) and Jaso on the roster, I just do not know when. Here is a good betting idea…who gets qualification first? Jesus Montero at catcher or Mark Trumbo at third? Over/under anyone? My bet is never and never.
After competing at this level (or I should say against this level) for so long, no earth shattering revelations jumped up. Almost everyone agrees that third base is just about as dry as catcher this year. This is the second year it has been so bad in my opinion. Last year people were jumping on McGehee in the top 10 rounds because it was so thin. This year, the “irrational exuberance” is tied to Lawrie who is generally being drafted in the third/fourth round, just turned 22, broke a finger in September, and has 150 AB of major league experience. I may be all wet about this guy, but that is just panic buying to me. I think, however, that those who can poach a proven contributor at the position early will be able to sit back on their heals and giggle at the rest of us as we squeak out “Chipper Jones” late.
For the snake draft, I have the players ranked and placed in levels broken down by differences of 5 “units” roughly approximating auction value. Strictly speaking, I do not use the same numbers for my auctions that I do with my snake drafts. Using auction values in a snake draft is like mixing anti-freeze with motor oil. They are related, but serve different functions in the machine. Auction values are driven as much by tactics (stars versus scrubs for example) and snake drafts are more about opportunity cost. My snake draft numbers are more about relative ranking than about resource allocation or price.
Then, I take those values and break MI and CM into four general tiers, catcher two, outfield six, starting pitching seven, and relievers three. The reason why is pretty obvious given the make up of our starting 23.
In essence, this becomes my starting point for all the subsequent tweaking. Now all I need is to follow the spring training activities…injuries, trades, free agent acquisitions, and general batting orders, especially as it has to do with lead-off hitters, #3 hitters, and clean-up hitters. Those positions in the batting order GENERALLY do not change except via injury. At least that is what I learned in Fantasy Camp at the “Getting the most AB out of your roster!” seminar.
But with so much time on my hands, I will now be digging deeper into some of my projections. This may be dangerous because I am one of those people who sometimes forget an AB is just an AB, so I could outsmart myself trying to outsmart the people in my league.
A few other general impressions. One, the dearth of quality defensive catchers in starting roles means that stolen bases will stay at the high level we have now as opposed to four or five years ago. It may not go up, but I do not think stolen bases will decline appreciably.
Second, much of what I have read has given me the impression that most think that outfield is a deep position. I just do not see it. After my top 45 at that position, I think it gets real scary. By the time most get even to their fourth outfielders, the available players will rank not much different than the lower level of guys I would consider for my middle-infielder position.
I have a few others, but I should not give away all my “secrets”!
Please accept these dribblings as what they are…an exercise in my boredom.
