NFBC Message Boards

I'm going to be on Rotowire's SiriusXM Fantasy Baseball show tomorrow at noon EST and thought I'd also set some time aside tomorrow afternoon to answer any other questions you may have about the upcoming season. I'm not trying to steal any thunder away from Shawn's Live Chat on Sunday night -- not that anyone could do that -- but I just thought I'd make Tom and myself available this week in case you had any NFBC, industry or MLB questions.

Ask away anytime between now and tomorrow afternoon and we'll answer when we can. Then we'll make ourselves available tomorrow at 3 pm EST for an hour of Chat and have some fun. You boys and girls have been WAAAAAAAAAAY too quiet this off-season and it's time for us to TALK BABY!!!

Remember when everyone wanted Gekko to shut up on the boards? Now he's as quiet as a mouse and I'm hearing complaints that the boards are dead!! Hah, trust me, I LOVE the boards!! I think people are really focused and busy with the Slow Drafts this season and any opinions of players are being proven in the ADPs. It's a lot easier to see what folks are thinking about players this off-season by just watching where they are being drafted in these NFBC Slow Drafts. You don't have to agree with the ADPs, but they are a road map nonetheless.

Okay, enough of that. Post some questions or thoughts or feedback in the next day and we'll do our best to answer them. Time to chat before Shawn's Live Chat on Sunday at 5 p.m. EST. And remember that Shawn and I will be teaming up next weekend in Phoenix at the LABR League drafts. If you think we struggled to agree on everything last year, wait until you see us together this year!!!

Let's CHAT!!

What's the good word on who the Brewers are going to throw out in LF the first 50 games? Aoki? Schafer? Damon?

NorCalAtlFan wrote:What's the good word on who the Brewers are going to throw out in LF the first 50 games? Aoki? Schafer? Damon?

Well, we did just sign Jay Gibbons today!! It's going to be RYAN BRAUN!!! It's taken this guy 5+ weeks and he still doesn't have a decision. For him to keep the 50 games now would be crazy. Something is up and hopefully the decision will come tomorrow. The Brewers seemed to think it would come Wednesday or Thursday of this week, but nothing seems imminent today. Let's cut to the chase tomorrow MLB.

I have to get ready for LABR next weekend in Phoenix with Childs, so someone load me up with some player questions so that I can sound smart!! C'mon, it's lonely when nobody chats with ya. Let's get this rollin' today.

What is your plan for NL First Base? Is it worth paying for Votto and getting the one sure thing? If not, who do you like out of the leftovers?

What 3 players -- pitchers or hitters -- would you target who are in a "walk year" this year (i.e., end of a long-term deal, only on a 1 year deal, or free agency pending for the first time, etc.)?

And what 3 players who, say within the last 2 years, would you AVOID who are already signed to long-term contracts (e.g., Jasyon Werth)?

Thanks!

Do you think Mat Gamel succeeds? Will he begin the year in a platoon, with a Corey Hart getting ABs at 1st vs lefties, thus getting another OF in the lineup.

Do you think Ichiro could produce a 1987 Wade Boggs like year from the 3-hole?

Joe Sambito wrote:Do you think Mat Gamel succeeds? Will he begin the year in a platoon, with a Corey Hart getting ABs at 1st vs lefties, thus getting another OF in the lineup.

Gooooooooood question. Now we're getting there. Time to play hoops, clear the body and mind and then return with a Subway sandwich and all of these answers. See ya after lunch.

What can we expect out of Johan Santana this year? It appears he will be ready for opening day but is he a shell of his former self?

low talkers wrote:What is your plan for NL First Base? Is it worth paying for Votto and getting the one sure thing? If not, who do you like out of the leftovers?

piggy-backing, similar question - which of these young 1B will have the best season - Freeman, Ike, or Goldie ?

Greg, sorry to break up the great fantasy related questions, but I have one on the contests, the NFBC XII specifically.

The Main Event, the Slow Drafts, the Auction Championships, the Premium Leagues all seem to be selling like hotcakes and have already or seem assured to sell out or better. The XII seems to be lagging behind a bit.

Are your expectations for that specific contest the same as when you started? Do you still expect to sell out?

I'm considering grabbing a 2nd team. However, I'd like to know that the prize structure will remain as is if I do. Is there any chance at this point that the prize structure gets reduced?

I bumped the thread a few days ago, but don't recall seeing a reply (which is fine - something tells me you are busy ): What's the status of the ncaa viewing party? It sure sounds like fun, but if it's not going to happen, I'd like to know sooner than later so I can make other plans.

Okay, it's like spring training weather here in Wisconsin: blue skies, 40+ degrees, sunshine and no snow on the ground. LET'S PLAY TWO!! I don't have any answers prepared ahead of time, so bare with me as I type fast. Thanks for joining me and load me up with some more questions in the meantime. I have an hour to spare. Thanks.

first up: NL First Basemen.

low talkers wrote:What is your plan for NL First Base? Is it worth paying for Votto and getting the one sure thing? If not, who do you like out of the leftovers?

It's interesting that you ask this because Ray Flowers asked me the same question the other night on SiriusXM. I haven't talked to Shawn yet, but I'm not sure you have to go overboard for Votto in an NL-only league even though it's clearly one of the weakest positions in the NL now without Pujols and Fielder. Hey, there are still 8 or 9 worthy options and the key is to not get left without one of the Top 10. I'm sure others will be thinking the same thing, but I'd have no problem targeting Freddie Freeman or Gaby Sanchez. Michael Cuddyer also qualifies here and so does Carlos Lee, serviceable options. So I don't think you have to make Votto your cornerstone, but I'm sure the bidding will be healthy for him off the bat.

Joe Sambito wrote:Do you think Mat Gamel succeeds? Will he begin the year in a platoon, with a Corey Hart getting ABs at 1st vs lefties, thus getting another OF in the lineup.

Let me jump to this one. Do I think Mat Gamel will succeed at first base? I hope so. He was a First Round pick in 2005 and he's 26 now, having spent 6+ years in the minors. It's do or die time for him. He has been able to hit at every level but the majors, but he also has never had a fulltime gig in Milwaukee. Each year he has been promoted to the majors to pinch hit or fill in for a bit and he's never gotten into a rhythm. I think if he has a good spring the Brewers will throw him out there almost every day and see if he can settle in at first base. Defensively, he shouldn't be a downgrade at all.

It sure doesn't sound like Hart wants to play first base. They've asked him to take some reps there and he didn't seem excited about learning a new position. It's not like the Brewers have an excess of good hitting outfielders. If Braun has to sit at all, I'd shutter to think of Gomez and Morgan both in the starting lineup. I'm not sure there's enough offense to go around to make this a .500 team, but if their starting pitchers can hold up you never know in this weak division.

I'm not very optimistic about Gamel. He's had plenty of chances to succeed in the past and has failed every time. Maybe things will be different now but I'm not seeing a strong reason to think that's the case. Personally, I think the Brewers are going to be in big trouble this season even if Braun avoids the suspension. If he's suspended for any length of time their season may be over before it starts. I just don't have a lot of faith in that offense without Fielder complementing Braun.

Joe Sambito wrote:Do you think Ichiro could produce a 1987 Wade Boggs like year from the 3-hole?

Boggs was 29 that year. No comparison to Ichiro, who is definitely showing his age now.

Ichiro didn't have a single at-bat anywhere but leadoff last year. He could be leading off with two outs a lot this year, but that's another story. I don't see anything in his numbers that leads me to believe a drop in the order is the cure-all for this 38-year-old. His .272 average was the worst of his career and snapped 10 straight seasons of .300+. His OBP was only .310, another career low. He's certainly not going to develop more power at the age of 38 and who needs a few more RBIs when it could cost him the same number of stolen bases?? I'm not diggin' this move or believing it will help. Nor should you. His ADP in the NFBC is 112 and it's unlikely he goes Top 100 in many drafts this year.

76erfan wrote:What can we expect out of Johan Santana this year? It appears he will be ready for opening day but is he a shell of his former self?

It's hard to evaluate someone who hasn't pitched in more than 18 months. I'm definitely looking for younger pitchers who have a chance to pitch 180+ innings, rather than someone who definitely will be limited in the number of innings he pitches even if he returns healthy. I hope he bounces back because he was one of the best in the game at one point and just a fierce, first competitor on the mound, but I'd be guessing if I told you I knew how he would do. His ADP in the NFBC is 303, so he's definitely being drafted after Round 20 with the hope that there's still some finesse in that left arm. Spring will tell us a lot more, so watch his progress and act accordingly.

What are some of the most extreme strategies that you have seen work in the NFBC nl only auctions and mixed league auctions?

Roy Oswalt just stated that he will wait for midseason to choose a team. Do you think it is wise to grab him now or is the roster spot too valuable to grab players like these. I know Clemens did this a few years ago and was valuable down the stretch, just is he worth drafting or waiting on this year because of that.

Who are 5 guys that you want nothing to do with this year that are draft-worthy, and who are 5 players that you would want on everyone of your teams if you were playing.

Over/Under:

25 - Johan starts

30 - The Beard saves

40 - Ellsbury steals

rockitsauce wrote:

low talkers wrote:What is your plan for NL First Base? Is it worth paying for Votto and getting the one sure thing? If not, who do you like out of the leftovers?

piggy-backing, similar question - which of these young 1B will have the best season - Freeman, Ike, or Goldie ?

I think there really is a lot to like about Freddie Freeman. Remember, he was just 21 last year and he more than held his own offensively and defensively. He hit .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBIs, and he even hit .292 after the All-Star break despite a rough September during the Braves' swoon (.226). He definitely wore down, but the smooth swing and talent is there. Yes, he needs to improve against left-handers (.247), but that's expected of any young hitter. I really like him and would have no problem building my NL-only team with him or even my NFBC team at the corner.

Goldschmidt looks like the real deal. I saw him twice in the playoffs against the Brewers and he can hit big-time homers to left field or right field. Just a real nice swing and good plate discipline. His ADP is 151, while Freeman's is 111. Goldie could be the better bargain here. I like them both.

Glenneration X wrote:Greg, sorry to break up the great fantasy related questions, but I have one on the contests, the NFBC XII specifically.

The Main Event, the Slow Drafts, the Auction Championships, the Premium Leagues all seem to be selling like hotcakes and have already or seem assured to sell out or better. The XII seems to be lagging behind a bit.

Are your expectations for that specific contest the same as when you started? Do you still expect to sell out?

I'm considering grabbing a 2nd team. However, I'd like to know that the prize structure will remain as is if I do. Is there any chance at this point that the prize structure gets reduced?

This is why I wanted to host this Live Chat. This is exactly the type of question I want to answer. Let me answer these other baseball-related questions first and then I'll give you my honest assessment of the NFBC XII and what we need to do going forward. We are not where I expected us to be at this point, nor where we need to be, but if everyone is holding back then we'll never get there. But I'll address this shortly and hopefully we can solve this one. It's my one real puzzle I need to solve in March.