Post
by CC's Desperados » Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:57 am
My head is in a quandary about the AL LABR. The LABR auctions are the longest running industry events in fantasy baseball. It’s a league I have followed for many years and I value the results as key information as I have prepared for my home AL auction league for many years. In 2004, I crossed over to the high stakes market and I played in the first events in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). I remember buying the USA Today Baseball Weekly as the Monte Carlo in Las Vegas. I would look at all the prices and then come up with a plan for my team. I thought the LABR results were the best information I could find to compete in my event.
As a result, I have won a couple of NFBC AL auction and one NL auction since 2004. There were times I had to chase the auction values from Greg Ambrosius of the NFBC. Lucky for me, Greg ran the NFBC plus he was a long time participant of the LABR. In 2010, Greg asked me if I wanted to join him in Arizona to compete in the LABR. I thought it was a great honor and a title I hope to win. Now the quandary, in three weeks I am entered in the NFBC AL auction in Las Vegas with a $1300 entry fee. I know many of my competitors will be following LABR as it will be broadcast on Sirius Radio. I thought the radio broadcast was a big win last year and I hope it is something that will continue going forward.
Money or prestige….the easy answer is both. I think I need to bring my “A” to both events, but I also realize I’ll have to adjust my plan in three weeks. Over the past three months I’ve been writing about the players and the teams. I’ve spent the last three days coming up with some auction prices. I’ve done three slow drafts. I think I have a feel for the player pool and each player’s value. Tonight I went over a couple of ideas with Greg and we finalized our core plan for tomorrow.
As many of you know, I’m a planner and I like to have core players for my hitting and pitching. Here’s our thought process and plan:
Our first question is always saves. Do we see any value? Is that 15 dollar closer more valuable than second tier starter? My first thought was to land Joe Nathan. He is a beaten down veteran with a solid resume. I thought he would be discounted. After talking to Greg and discussing starting pitching options, we decided to punt saves initially in the auction. If we miss on a top starter, we may adjust on the fly. We will take a couple of shots at closers in waiting and we will keep our eye open if a closer falls below $10.
In the AL league, I start my plan with a 190/70 split. I will adjust my plan when I have a feel for player’s value. If I can land a deal on offense, it may lead to more spending on pitching. For pitching staff, our goal is to start with David Price at $24 or less. Last year starting pitching was discounted and we need to be aware that a better arm may be in play. Lester is in play as a fall back plan. We will out any pitchers as we view our offensive core as more important early in the auction. If we land Price, we will be tracking Darvish, Moore, Jimenez, Morrow, and Buchholz. Two of the players are young and I’m not real sure of the real price an owner is willing to pay for them. Morrow and Jimenez have talent plus they have risk, but their risk may come at a discount. Buchholz is neutral player. He is coming off an injury but he pitches for a good team. The second pitcher will be on feel and timing. I’d like to own Sale in this auction. His price point may be a value based on his upside. I have to be careful and not overspend for a young player. If things go well, we should own three arms for $50. By punting saves, we can hopefully build our back end of our pitching staff. We then would be looking to buy a veteran arm at a discount or roster a couple pitchers with upside. I’m thinking our fourth starter will fall in the $8 range. We will use the last $12 to finish the staff.
It’s really hard to think clearly when you are passionate about some players. I don’t know why, but I really want to own Mike Trout this year. He may spend half the year in the minors, but I think he will make an impact in an AL only league. I will not wait until the end game to call him out. I want him on the mat early so I can move on from him. Our first call is going to be Evan Longoria. I think he is a solid major league bat that will give us solid core stats in four categories plus add some speed. We will not miss on this player. Our second key player is Adrian Gonzalez. Ideally we would like him to be called out before Pujols and Cabrera. I think his price point will be higher as each first baseman comes off the board. This group tends to respect batting average which will make him attractive this season. We won’t have pay for him unless the inventory is drained before he is called out. We want a top tier first baseman.
Normally, I’d be looking for a player with Ellsbury, Crawford, or Jennings skill set. I think this year I’m going to go in another direction. Crawford may be discounted, but I’d rather avoid risk in the auction. Ellsbury is going to go high. I will push him and may be a get stuck with him if he is discounted. He is a $40+ player this season. I like Jennings and I have to have an open mind when it comes to him. Our plan is to own Ben Revere and Elvis Andrus. I’m think they have a chance to steal between 70 and 100 bases this year. If they run, we are hoping to trade speed for saves at some points. Andrus will go full price and I’m not sure of Revere’s price point. From what I’ve seen, there isn’t anyone that really loves him. If he is called before Gardner or Crisp, his price may be fail. I don’t think he is a must own and I think we can get out without him. I’m just thing he is a moveable piece.
At catcher, we are looking to roster one of the top four catchers with the understanding the Carlos Santana will be out of our price range. If we land a deal prior to him being called out, we may have extra dollars to commit to him. Wieters, Mauer, and Montero are attractive this season. I’ve been a huge Mauer fan in the past, but Greg seemed hesitant about him. If he falls below $20, we will be in the bidding. If we have to take a detour, we are interested in Kurt Suzuki for fewer dollars plus we may try to own a solid second if we have to take a drop down in price. I think Salvador Perez would by our target if we had enough money for a second catcher. Tyler Flower will be our short money target if we buy an elite catcher.
If our plan is on track, we will have about $50 for the rest of our offensive roster. I think we need two solid major league outfielders that will bat in the middle of the order somewhere plus a solid second baseman.
After sleeping on the game plan, I thought I was over committing on some of the players and I didn’t have enough money to execute the plan properly. The Trout commitment may bring too much risk if his price point is too high and he spends two months in the minors. He is a player of interest, but we have to see if we can stay within our budget. Sometimes I just can’t shut my mouth in these events.
We had a discussion between Desmond Jennings and Elvis Andrus. We decided that he was in play if he came out first and his price point was in the $27 range. I think he will offer more power and more speed upside in the $4 difference in price point. If we do buy Jennings, we would drop all the way down to a player like Mike Aviles at short.
I think second base is a tough position. Maybe we should be interested Cano or Pedroia, but they aren’t in our plan. We decided to settle in on Dustin Ackley. Everyone knows he has talent, but what does he really offer…speed or power? I don’t think anyone thinks he will offer an edge in either area this season. I think comes down to process of elimination. I like Kinsler, but I’d rather avoid the risk. Zobrist and Kendrick look like solid players. I think their price point we be out of our price range. We should have our speed covered so Weeks doesn’t fit our plan. Kelly Johnson looks decent, but I’m not a fan of his skill set. This really leaves us three options: Kipnis, Beckham, and Ackley. I could live with any of the three. I’m leaning toward Ackley based on his talent plus where he will hit in the lineup. I can’t see his price point being too high based on his performance and his overall skill set last season.
We know we aren’t going to make a bunch of deals to save the franchise after the draft. We need to be balance and we need to have assets with upside so we can adjust our team as the season goes.
When the gate opens, we will spend early and often if the players we like are being called out. Once we have $60 left, we will try to position ourselves to take advantage of the end game. It requires extreme patience and one wrong move will put you behind the eight ball late in the auction.
That guy loves a challenge and winning both LABR League titles would excite Childs almost as much as winning the NFBC Main Event overall title. I said "ALMOST!!" 
