NFBC Message Boards

We're happy to welcome Ron to our weekly chat sessions. To kick things off, here are his answers to questions submitted ahead of time:



Have you ever competed in the NFBC? If so, how did you do? If not, why?



I have never competed in the NFBC, although several of my writers have.

Despite all the trash talk challenging me to participate, that’s not likely

going to happen. It has nothing to do with the fear of failure like some

suggest; I hold my own wherever I compete. It’s strictly a legal thing. I

was advised by my lawyers a long time ago that, in order to protect my

business and to avoid any perception of impropriety, I should avoid

participating in any public competitions that play for money.

A lot of people give you a hard time about straight drafts. But you have

stated in the past that your not really a straight draft kinda guy. You

said you cut your teeth on auction drafts and as the record shows you are

an expert there. Would you say the Auction drafts are really where the

pro's shine due to skill?



It’s a different type of game. In auctions, you not only need to know the

players but you have to play the economics, which gives you more

flexibility to shape your roster. I like to leverage my risk management

skills, but I can’t do that as much in a straight draft because, when my

turn comes up in the first round, I HAVE TO choose a first round

player. Last year, nearly 50% of first-rounders went belly-up, but in an

auction, I never would have considered high-priced stars like Helton,

Beltran, Rolen… who flopped.



But that’s not to say that straight drafts don‘t have their own strategies.

FWIW, I’ve participated in a ton of straight drafts in recent years and I

like them a lot. For one thing, you don’t have to sacrifice a whole day to

draft (not usually, anyway).



what were your to

what were your top 3 highest ranked players going into '05 that you totally

whiffed on (not injury related). What in your analysis went wrong and did

you modify your projection formulas going into '06 because of it ?



Three biggest misses… Big power follow-ups for Sean Casey and Shawn Green,

and a meltdown from John Smoltz. Casey and Green were similar in that I

put too much weight on recent performance and external factors, and not

enough weight on their strong ground ball tendencies. Smoltz was just one

of those guys who defies all the percentage plays. What were the odds that

a 38-year-old pitcher who had not thrown even 85 IP in a season since 1999

(and not 200 IP since 1997) would hurl 200-plus with a sub-3.00 ERA? You

don’t change your mode of prognosticating for the outliers; you just know

ahead of time that every year will have a few.

Given the player movement (to date), the changes in the ballparks (WAS, SD,

PHL), and the managerial changes (Leyland), which team do see as being the

2006 version of the ChiSox?



The Kansas City Royals. Same division, a lot of young talent with some

veteran leadership, and….. only kidding.



Actually, while a lot has already been written about the possibilities of a

team like Milwaukee, I think there is enough unrest in the NL Central that

I would not be surprised to see them win that division. Ben Sheets could

win the Cy Young this year.

I'm here. Fire Away!



RON@HQ

Ron,



I'd like to get your thoughts on the three new Red Sox. Will Coco warrant a sixth round pick in the NFBC? Who do you see having a more productive season Lowell or Loretta? Thanks.

Ron, suppose that you've been asked to choose a free agent acquisition process for your favorite fanalytic league. What would you go with? FAAB? The Vickrey method? Another?

I'll get things started Ron; a lot of attention has been focused on Soriano's move to the NL but Edgar Renteria is back in the NL as well after a down season in 2005. Do you think he'll bounce back with the Braves?

Originally posted by TheKing:

Ron,



I'd like to get your thoughts on the three new Red Sox. Will Coco warrant a sixth round pick in the NFBC? Who do you see having a more productive season Lowell or Loretta? Thanks. We're projecting big things for Crisp this year. All his skills indicators are on the upswing, he's at a good age and in a good ballpark. With the exception of BA, his numbers could exceed Damon this year. Lowell and Loretta are both risks but Lowell's upside is greater. Slight edge to him.

Ron, do you think this will be the year for Delmon Young or BJ Upton to become meaningful fantasy contributors?

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

Ron, suppose that you've been asked to choose a free agent acquisition process for your favorite fanalytic league. What would you go with? FAAB? The Vickrey method? Another? I hate FAAB. Playing fantasy baseball is all about control and FAAB is 80% luck. Vickrey is better in that it allows you to have some control over your budget. Lately, I've been leaning towards just reverse order of the standings, but limiting it to one pick per week. It maintains the sanctity of the draft, blocks out those guys who like to turn over their roster and instills some parity into the season.

Mike Lowell disappeared last year - what happened and why does he rebound this year?

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I'll get things started Ron; a lot of attention has been focused on Soriano's move to the NL but Edgar Renteria is back in the NL as well after a down season in 2005. Do you think he'll bounce back with the Braves? Yes. Renteria was uncomfortable in Boston all year. He could have a very nice bounce-back season in Atlanta.

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Ron, do you think this will be the year for Delmon Young or BJ Upton to become meaningful fantasy contributors? It's possible but Tampa has to clean out some of the excess parts that are standing in their way. If Huff and Gaithright move on, then there is no question. If not, Young might only see a few hundred ABs while Upton might get stuck in AAA most of the year.

Ron, who are the best players in each league nobody's talking about enough?

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Mike Lowell disappeared last year - what happened and why does he rebound this year? Lowell is the one player where there are no outward clues as to what happened. If he was hurt, which is possible, he hid it well. If he came off the juice, which is possible, he hid it well (of course). Personally, I think the truth lies in one of the above, which unfortunately does NOT bode well for a rebound. But we just don't know. If it was JUST an off-year, or some type of psychological snowball disaster - as we are being led to believe - then a rebound is more likely. Best percentage play right now is to assume 2006 will be somewhere between 2004 and 2005, which is the easy copout. But even if that is true, he might have a pretty good year.



[ February 15, 2006, 02:15 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]

What exactly is xBA? I know expected Batting Average but how is it figured? A higher xBA is a reason given that you think Edwin Encarnacion will have a good year, 2003 and 2004 he hit in the .260's in double A, do you really think he'll bust out this year?

Does Keith Foulke bounce back this year?

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

Ron, who are the best players in each league nobody's talking about enough? Ten years ago, this would be an easy question to answer because information was tougher to come by. These days, everyone knows everything, more or less.



Still, two names that I keep bringing up... Best catcher in the NL this year could be Michael Barrett. As I mentioned earlier... Ben Sheets, Cy Young.

Would you take either Victor Martinez or Joe Mauer in top 40?

Ron,



Put yourself in the shoes of an NFBC participant. You've drawn the 4 spot and Arod, Pujols, and Vladdy are off the board. Do you take Crawford?

Ron, what does Leo Mazzone focus on that increases the probability a pitcher will improve under his watch ? And do you believe any positive he'll bring will be totally countered by the improved offenses of Tor & TB not to mention the stalwarts bos and ny ?



Q

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

What exactly is xBA? I know expected Batting Average but how is it figured? A higher xBA is a reason given that you think Edwin Encarnacion will have a good year, 2003 and 2004 he hit in the .260's in double A, do you really think he'll bust out this year? xBA says that it's NOT about batting average, it's about seeing the ball and making contact with authority. We take those skill components and calculate an expected BA off of it. If the xBA is significantly different from a player's actual BA, then he is likely to see a change in fortunes. Encarnacion posted an xBA over 40 points higher than his real BA last year. It's a small sample size so you have to take that into consideration, but there is upside here.

It seems you projections of Bobby Jenks are a bit low. He has a nasty curveball that simply seems unfair with his triple digit heat. Playing on that team, with that group of starters I would think he has a chance to be in the elite class of closers. Is it his injury history that tempers your projections? And are they injuries that could very well appear in 2006?

Originally posted by agd:

Does Keith Foulke bounce back this year? I wouldn't bet a 12th round pick on it. Heck, I'm risk averse - I wouldn't bet a 23rd round pick on it.