NFBC Message Boards

Not a Lawrie owner anywhere but nice to see for those who jumped in early on him. Couldn't see late 2nd early 3rd for a 7th place hitter.

3rd, 6th, 9th...it's all the same.

Actually batting 6th today, but looks way over-drafted no matter where he is in the line-up. I think Aramis 3 rounds later has the better fantasy season.

a nice little 0 for 6 start for those that invested today.

KJ Duke wrote:Actually batting 6th today, but looks way over-drafted no matter where he is in the line-up. I think Aramis 3 rounds later has the better fantasy season.

if lawrie provides 15-20sb, i don't see any way ARAM could provide more value

(unless he pulls a gordon beckham)

both HRAM and Stanton are 0-8 with 3Ks. slow starts all around

Gekko wrote:

KJ Duke wrote:Actually batting 6th today, but looks way over-drafted no matter where he is in the line-up. I think Aramis 3 rounds later has the better fantasy season.

if lawrie provides 15-20sb, i don't see any way ARAM could provide more value

(unless he pulls a gordon beckham)

More power, more BA, more run production and ~10 less combined HR/SB = advantage Aramis. We'll see. I have Lawrie cheap in the NFBC Keeper, so it's not like I'm not pulling for him. Just couldn't pay up for him in any other league.

in last 5 years...
**hasn't played in 150+ games in a single season
**OPS on road (every year) has been below career road OPS
**he's had 123 at bats in miller park. a total of 4hr and a .240 batting average

With him being 34 this year, odds say to expect a decline

Gekko wrote:in last 5 years...
**hasn't played in 150+ games in a single season

Neither has Lawrie, last season 116 games.

Gekko wrote: **(in the past 5 yrs) he's had 123 at bats in miller park. a total of 4hr and a .240 batting average

That's just a (rotten-) cherry picking stat line ... 123 ABs. He's a career 270 hitter with 15 HRs in 300 AB's in Miller Park. That's a statistically insignificant 4 hits in 300 ABs below his career BA, and a slightly better HR per PA ratio than his career avg.

Gekko wrote: With him being 34 this year, odds say to expect a decline

Lawrie's 22 yrs old, what are the odds of him being a top 30 player? Justin Upton was 22 in 2010 and was widely regarded as a more talented prospect than Lawrie. He hit 273 with 17 hrs, 18 sbs and 73/69. Great season for a 22yr old; that's in the ballpark of what I think Lawrie can do this yr, which would be well below the fantasy value of Ramirez in 2011. Speaking of which, Ramirez played last season for a pitiful Cubs organization that couldn't wait to finish the season. This season he goes to a better club in terms of coaching, support players and opportunity to win, and he's got something to prove after signing for less than expected. He hasn't shown any sign of decline yet, hitting 318 in the second half - 35 pts above his career avg. I think he tops last season and delivers 3rd-4th round value versus his 5th-6th round ADP, while Lawrie is more likely to finish as a 5th-6th rd value with a 3rd round ADP. Even if they meet in the middle in terms of performance, which is certainly possible, Aram owners win the battle having taken him 3 rounds later.

KJ Duke wrote:

Gekko wrote:
That's just a (rotten-) cherry picking stat line ... 123 ABs. He's a career 270 hitter with 15 HRs in 300 AB's in Miller Park. That's a statistically insignificant 4 hits in 300 ABs below his career BA, and a slightly better HR per PA ratio than his career avg.

the past 5 years in miller park = 4hr in 123 at bats. this matches up to his declining power as he gets older. don't be using his stats when he was 25/26/etc. "what have you done for me lately"

We can also flip the Miller Park stats into a positive for Ramirez.
There, he has only had to face Brewer pitching. He is batting .179 vs. all current Brewer pitchers, who for the most part, are the same hurlers Ramirez has faced over that time frame.
Without facing these pitchers, Miller Park becomes a friend, not foe.
Not to mention that he trades batting against tough (for him, especially) Brewer pitching for yummy Cubs match ups.

I assume you're not so much of a dumbass that you think 123 AB is meaningful in any context, which means you're just being a clown

34 years old seals the deal

Hells Satans wrote:I assume you're not so much of a dumbass that you think 123 AB is meaningful in any context, which means you're just being a clown

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!