NFBC Message Boards

We're happy to welcome Nate Ravitz of RotoTimes and a 2005 NFBC champion to our weekly chat session. Bring your questions for Nate and let's have some fun for the next hour.



To get things started, here are Nate's replies to a couple of questions submitted in advance:



Response No. 1 to the question of Ron Shandler said ,"I have never competed in the NFBC, although several of

my writers have. Despite all the trash talk challenging me to participate,

that’s not likely going to happen. It has nothing to do with the fear of

failure like some suggest; I hold my own wherever I compete. It’s strictly a

legal thing. I was advised by my lawyers a long time ago that, in order to

protect my business and to avoid any perception of impropriety, I should

avoid participating in any public competitions that play for money." nate -

i know you participate in the NFBC. do you buy ron's answer? if so, why

isn't there a legal issue for you? thanks.:



Well, first of all, Ron has been in this business a long time and doesn't

have to prove himself to anyone, in my opinion, and I'm sure he isn't scared

to compete in NFBC. My attorney didn't have any issue with me competing. I

suspect the potential appearance of impropriety would come into play if Ron

drafted someone that he had been openly critical of in his work - then

someone might think he'd intentionally mislead his readers to gain an

advantage. It's ludicrous to think Ron would do that, but that issue has

come up before.



Response No. 2 to the question of Great article, Nate. You said that you won't take one dimensional players,

but where do you draw the line? It seems like if you projected someone to

hit 100 bombs with a .250 average, you'd have to go for him. Similarly, if

Dunn was available in the 12th round, you'd have to consider him, wouldn't

you? Can't you sometimes lose value by sticking to such a hard rule?:



Thanks for the compliment. Quick plug. For those who don't know, he's

referring to my article "NFBC: Money in the Bank" from this year's Roto

Times Guide to Winning Fantasy Baseball (available on our site). It will

also be available in the Roto Times online draft kit, which will be launched

later today or tomorrow on our web site. Now, I didn't write that I won't

take one dimensional players, just that I won't take them in the first few

rounds. That's basically an absolute. I won't take someone like Scott

Podsednik or a closer in the first few rounds of an NFBC-type draft under

any circumstances. But I will definitely take one-dimensional guys when the

time is right. A big part of my success last year was getting Ryan Freel in

the 12th round. Now, I did say that I basically guys expected to hit below

.270 or guys with expected high ERAs and WHIPs. But of course you have to be

ready to make exceptions. If Troy Glaus slips to the 10th round, I'll take

him. Reality is that a player like Glaus (great power, guaranteed to hurt

your BA) will almost certainly come off the board well before I would

consider him. One thing to remember about your example, however. If a guy

hits 100 bombs, but I only need 30 from him to win the homers category,

those extra 70 are worthless to me, and his .250 BA continues to hurt for as

long as he's in my lineup. I'm less concerned about a player's "value" in

NFBC - because you can't make trades - and more concerned about putting

together a team that I think will win.

Hey guys. I'm here. Shoot any questions my way.

I'll get things started by asking Nate who are some of his top mid- or late-round value picks this year?

By the way, my response above should say "ow, I did say that I basically DON'T TAKE guys expected to hit below .270 or guys with expected high ERAs and WHIPs"

Here are some more from the other thread. Do some copying and pasting if you have to Nate



Nate , What are your thoughts on the new ballbark in St Louis, Hitter or pitcher friendly. Also what the changes at some other ballparks (petco and citizens bank park) mean. thanks



Nate,

is keeping the flex spot open really more important than taking a D.Ortiz at #15 or a Hafner @ #30 ?



nate - what do you think about BBDS (Blind Bidding on Draft Slots) using FAAB money? thanks.



Who are your 3 most likely candidates for the following things this year's



1) Beltran first round bust

2) Cantu out of nowhere to stud

3) Carpenter- a good pitcher turned ace

4) BJ Ryan- solid choice on draft day closer turned elite





Can you see Chone going in the first round in any drafts?

Can you see Chone being drafted in the first round in any drafts this year?

I have to give away mid-late round value picks??!!!



Okay, here are a few I like:



Mid: Orlando Hudson, Shea Hillenbrand, Anthony Reyes, Ryan Madson



Late: Dave Bush, Ryan Shealy, John Rodriguez

Nate, congrats on a great season in 2005! I was hoping to get your opinion on a few players to avoid that other "experts" seem to be touting.

Originally posted by NateRavitz:

I have to give away mid-late round value picks??!!!Don't worry, nobody's going to remember this in your league in a few weeks.



[ February 22, 2006, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

It wouldn't stun me if Chone Figgins went at the very end of the first round in NFBC. I think he's more likely a mid-late second round pick, though I probably wouldn't take him quite that high.

Players other "experts" are touting who I would avoid (or at least not take as high as you'll probably need to)



Conor Jackson

Brad Hawpe

Segio Mitre

Chien-Ming Wang

"nate - what do you think about BBDS (Blind Bidding on Draft Slots) using FAAB money? thanks."



I thought it was a terrible idea, and I told Greg as much.

Question: "Who are your 3 most likely candidates for the following things this year's



1) Beltran first round bust

2) Cantu out of nowhere to stud

3) Carpenter- a good pitcher turned ace

4) BJ Ryan- solid choice on draft day closer turned elite"



1) Miguel Cabrera - because he has so little lineup support. And, um, some other reasons.

2) Orlando Hudson or Jose Lopez

3) Chris Young or Dan Haren

4) Chris Ray

Originally posted by NateRavitz:

"nate - what do you think about BBDS (Blind Bidding on Draft Slots) using FAAB money? thanks."



I thought it was a terrible idea, and I told Greg as much. Uh oh, Gekko's not going to like this one. Be prepared...

I saw there was a lot more discussion on the other threat about the Shandler issue (why he doesn't play NFBC). To clarify, my position at RT is "editor in chief", which basically means I run Roto Times, our premium web site (Fantasy Hot Sheet) and everything else. I am not the owner of Roto Times currently, but I once was and I would have played NFBC at that time all the same. There's no specific "legal" reason not to (according to my counsel).

Let's go non-fantasy for a second Nate. Which teams do you think will be the most improved this season and are they any you think are primed for a fall?

Nate , how does the new Busch stadium pan out.

Question: "Nate, Why did you skip the auction drafts this year?"



Basically to lighten my load for the week. See I arrive in Las Vegas on Tuesday for the FSTA conference. I spend Wednesday/Thursday at the conference, having a lot of meetings with business contacts, plus drafting in an FSTA experts draft - and yes, doing some networking (aka: partying, gambling, etc). It's a bear, and I wanted to have Friday off this year.



Full disclosure: In last year's NFBC AL-only auction, I completely botched the auction, gave up on the team by June 1 and finished last (I think). I hated not paying attention to it, but I just had too much on my plate last year. Which is no excuse for botching the draft. That's just one of the things that happens.

"Let's go non-fantasy for a second Nate. Which teams do you think will be the most improved this season and are they any you think are primed for a fall?"



I think the following teams will be improved:



Mets, Blue Jays, Giants, A's.



The Yankees could be primed for a fall, simply because their starting pitching could be atrocious if Mussina doesn't rebound. Obviously the Marlins will fall off.

Question: "Nate how does the new Busch stadium pan out."



I live in St. Louis, and no one here seems to know. The dimensions are basically the same as old Busch, with he alleys possibly being a little deeper. Supposedly, the gaps are deeper to account for the fact that the designers expect the ball to carry better there than at old Busch.



In related news, to the naked eye, it looks unlikely that the park will be 100 percent finished in 6 weeks.

Nate,

you dont seem to be concerned about drafting closers high or even 2 within the 1st 15 rds. Is the edge gained on offense (and starting pitching)by eschewing closers that much more important than scrambling the rest of the year overbidding for closers ?

I'm not sure where you get the idea that I wouldn't get two closers in the first 15 rounds. I drafted my closers in rounds 5 (Cordero) and 7 (Looper) last year, and then the combination of luck and aggressive FAAB bidding got me Todd Jones.



In fact, looking at my NFBC article, I specifically suggest getting two closers in rounds 5-10.

Does the Friday DL replacement rule change your strategy at all on draft day?

Question: "Nate,

is keeping the flex spot open really more important than taking a D.Ortiz at #15 or a Hafner @ #30 ?"



Absolutely not. In fact, I don't think keeping the flex spot open is especially important in NFBC play. I try to not have a DH-only in regular leagues because having flexibility there really increases your trade opportunities, which obviously don't exist in NFBC.

Nate,



Do you ever punt categories or positions? And what are your thoughts on the all reliever strategy, hair-brained or do you think it has any merit? And when you draft do you hope to see some imploring that strategy in your league?