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Last week, I listed my all-underrated fantasy team with the likes of Paul Konerko, Kelly Johnson, and Alex Gonzalez. Now, by popular demand (1 person), I am listing my all-overrated team.. and NO, Derek Jeter is not on the list. Not just because he has had a great start to the season, but just because he actually fell dramatically this year in ADP (128) and may soon be on the underrated team... Once again, as I said in my previous post, I drafted some of these guys, so I am guilty too...

C - Miguel Montero - Sorry, not a fan. Sure, he put up decent numbers in 2011 with a .280+ BA, but I just don't see why he was being drafted (6th round ADP) so far ahead of guys like Russell Martin (14th round ADP).. for a few points on average, I would rather wait and get a guy that has done it for years and gives you a few steals in replacement of average.

1B - Mark Teixeira - Consistantly a 2nd round pick, YES, he gives you superior HR and RBI numbers, but his batting average has been declining rapidly, and would much rather wait on a guy like Paul Konerko in the 5th or 6th round that gives you 30-100-.300.

2B - Dan Uggla - a 4th round pick on average, who WILL kill you in batting average and cannot steal a base. Granted, he will give you HR/RBIs, but how about waiting until the 13th round for Kelly Johnson? Now, granted, pairing Uggla with a bunch of good "Batting Average" guys is not a bad game plan, but just saying....

3B - Evan Longoria - OK a little controversy here.. I know the position is thin... and I know he is an all star... but 25-30 HR's and 100 RBI's with a mediocre batting average doesn't equal a 1st round or even early 2nd round pick, in my mind. I just think it might be a better play to wait for Aramis Ramirez or Edwin Encarnacion... and use your top pick on a STUD. Longoria, to me, is not a fantasy stud. Maybe he turns into one, but we are through 6+ seasons and he isn't one yet..

SS - Derek Jeter - NAH just kidding - How about....Jimmy Rollins - Still drafted in the 5th round (by me, BTW), he has been declining rapidly, does give you steals and 15-20 HR's but not a good batting average and no upside. Input Ian Desmond in the 15-17th round... thank you very much.

OF - Andrew McCutchen - Definitely has 30-30 potential, but on a bad hitting team, he is not a first round draft pick or top 2nd round pick. Now, if you could wait a few rounds, and take Shane Victorino, then maybe take Kinsler or Pedroia in place of McCutchen... Now, obviously people draft on potential, so the upside is huge with McCutchen.. but until he gets out of Pittsburgh, I think we are in for a disappointing career

SP - Zack Greinke - Everyone was hyping this guy at the drafts... and I get why you might want him as your #2, but he is not a stud pitcher to me. He has had 1 really good season. His ERA the past two seasons were 3.83 and 4.17 Yes, he went 16-6 last year and stuck out 201 batters. But, I saw him going in the 2nd and 3rd rounds!! Crazy, in my mind. CJ Wilson was a much better risk on a championship calibar team going in the 5th or 6th round.

SP - Josh Beckett - Scary ERA - other than last season, and doesn't strike guys like he used to. A rich man's Ryan Dempster...


So, those are my overrated fantasy players...I was trying not to base these on 2012 YTD, just on numbers from the past vs 2012 ADP.... Any others to add? Not agree with mine?

Miguel, I look for average not steals from the catcher spot. I AM a fan (you can have russell all day and tomorrow to). You miss out on Konerko in the 6th then you end up with Ike Davis. Maybe that will end up just fine. Maybe. I'll take big Tex over him (or Hosmer, at least this year!) all the way to the bank. The rest seem spot on to my thinking, Evan is about to see his clock strike midnight once again. IMO which dosn't mean alot.

Two of my players make your all-overrated squad, those being Andrew McCutchen and Josh Beckett. The funny thing is that I also happened to draft your cited poor man's version of each player, Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster respectively. I understand the misgivings about the Pirates, but I'll roll the dice with McCutchen. I definitely get the reservations about Beckett. My thinking on him was that, after Boston's September debacle and the role Beckett played in it, he would be especially motivated to bounce back to top form. Wishful thinking? We'll see.

Kevin

Youch! I have two on the list.

Not sure why your are confused by the love Miguel Montero is getting. How many other catchers are in their prime (28), playing for a contract (doesn't always help but can't hurt), bat left handed (a plus when batting against right-handed pitchers whom Montero hasn't hit less than 0.286 for the last three years), hit in a money position (only a small handful of catchers bat 3rd or 4th and he is typically batting 4th), hit in a ballpark that tends to be very favorable to runs scored and LHB average, shows plus power, has a good chance at 475+ AB, and has decent contact/walk rates which support a potential for an overall 0.270+ BA. Just not that many players period meet those kinds of parameters, much less catchers. But that is ok. I also have Russell Martin as my #2 catcher in the Main!

I also have Longoria. Injuries and some bad luck seriously curtailed him last year, and he still basically had the 30/100 in less than 490 official AB. And he is only 26 with already 3+ years of major league service. In 2009 and 2010, he hit RHers well and LHers GREAT with a great eye so 0.280-0.290 is there. Gets loft on the ball with ++ Power with at least league average speed (10 SB is not out of the question). Ability and opportunity. He has both. A gamble in the first (maybe), but this is a case where you have a better than average chance at being ahead of the curve rather than behind it.

Just different opinions I guess, but I sure hope I am right!

Edwards Kings wrote:Youch! I have two on the list.

Not sure why your are confused by the love Miguel Montero is getting. How many other catchers are in their prime (28), playing for a contract (doesn't always help but can't hurt), bat left handed (a plus when batting against right-handed pitchers whom Montero hasn't hit less than 0.286 for the last three years), hit in a money position (only a small handful of catchers bat 3rd or 4th and he is typically batting 4th), hit in a ballpark that tends to be very favorable to runs scored and LHB average, shows plus power, has a good chance at 475+ AB, and has decent contact/walk rates which support a potential for an overall 0.270+ BA. Just not that many players period meet those kinds of parameters, much less catchers. But that is ok. I also have Russell Martin as my #2 catcher in the Main!

I also have Longoria. Injuries and some bad luck seriously curtailed him last year, and he still basically had the 30/100 in less than 490 official AB. And he is only 26 with already 3+ years of major league service. In 2009 and 2010, he hit RHers well and LHers GREAT with a great eye so 0.280-0.290 is there. Gets loft on the ball with ++ Power with at least league average speed (10 SB is not out of the question). Ability and opportunity. He has both. A gamble in the first (maybe), but this is a case where you have a better than average chance at being ahead of the curve rather than behind it.

Just different opinions I guess, but I sure hope I am right!

Hey. just my opinion. Sorry I am talking down on some of your guys.. they are some of my guys too. I understand the love for Montero.. Just don't see him going in the 6th round, when you can get a much bigger producer from another position in that round and wait for Martin or Ramos 8 rounds later. Its not like Montero has a huge track record. Ramos could easily put up close to Montero type numbers.. Just saying its really early for a non-stud catcher. I have him in several leagues, so I bought in too.

As far as Longoria, we are in year 6!! Not a first round pick in my opinion. Ability yes... opportunity yes... production? 3-4th round... See Aramis Ramirez.

BK METS wrote:As far as Longoria, we are in year 6!! Not a first round pick in my opinion.

No problemo, but you might want to check your resources. Longoria did not break camp with the Rays in 2008 and had no MLB service prior to that. I have his MLB debut in April 12, 2008 at age 22 after only 37 games (end of 2007, beginning of 2008) at AAA. Since he had nearly 450 AB in the Majors in 2008, I guess I should have said four years rather than 3+, but in any regard, this is the fourth year he has broke camp with the team and the fifth year he has been in the majors.

Still only 26 though.

Tex is overrated but Hosmer wasn't?

I get your take on Teixeira - but see there is one hole is the argument that you wait on Konerko. Tex and Hosmer were the 2nd round options at 1B this year. After those two generally 7 1B were off the board. So THEN we go down to the next tier that started with Konerko - so if you waited - 8 other guys were waiting as well. If you missed on Konerko you likely ended up with Mike Morse or settled for Cuddyer, Berkman, Freeman, K Morales, Ike Davis, Lind or Mourneau. For me drafting Tex often came down to my position in a 15 team draft, but by no means do I think anyone grabbing him in the second round necessarily made a bad choice. Consistency counts for something.

You keep pointing to Kelly Johnson, but there's so many unknowns with Johnson. With Uggla, I know I am getting 30+ Hrs, 90+ RBIs. Johnson could get 20 HRs. He could steal 15 bases. He could bat .270. But there's been too many seasons where he hasn't done it. Also, Uggla's 2nd half last year gives me reason to believe he'll fair better in the average department this season.

2 things- in full support of mr. kings. yes- we know it is your opinion- but when you (and many others) use the phrase "I don't understand"- that can be taken at face value- or as an insult to those that drafted said player. at face value- edward gave very good reasons to "help you understand". bats 4th, 28, good hitting park, bats lefty. in fact- it might be you that doesn't understand. double in fact- those are all reasons (except switch hitter) that people drafted weiters. 2nd thing- and ryan pointed this out- is roster construction and draft flow. you could miss on konerko. you are in second round- you don't know what will happen in round 5 and you want a power 1st basemen. for me- at pick 25 in st louis it was (in my mind) between hos and tex. i took tex. you would have said you were going to pass and wait for konerko in round 5- except in st louis he went in round 4. better to say- "lots of good 1st basemen late- i will wait" than to say " i will just take konerko. that is a roster construction issue. i get tex and someone in 5 and you get someone else in round 2 and not the guy you wanted in 5.

Edwards Kings wrote:

BK METS wrote:As far as Longoria, we are in year 6!! Not a first round pick in my opinion.

No problemo, but you might want to check your resources. Longoria did not break camp with the Rays in 2008 and had no MLB service prior to that. I have his MLB debut in April 12, 2008 at age 22 after only 37 games (end of 2007, beginning of 2008) at AAA. Since he had nearly 450 AB in the Majors in 2008, I guess I should have said four years rather than 3+, but in any regard, this is the fourth year he has broke camp with the team and the fifth year he has been in the majors.

Still only 26 though.

You are absolutely right, we are in year 5... my bad.

Ryan C wrote:Tex is overrated but Hosmer wasn't?

I get your take on Teixeira - but see there is one hole is the argument that you wait on Konerko. Tex and Hosmer were the 2nd round options at 1B this year. After those two generally 7 1B were off the board. So THEN we go down to the next tier that started with Konerko - so if you waited - 8 other guys were waiting as well. If you missed on Konerko you likely ended up with Mike Morse or settled for Cuddyer, Berkman, Freeman, K Morales, Ike Davis, Lind or Mourneau. For me drafting Tex often came down to my position in a 15 team draft, but by no means do I think anyone grabbing him in the second round necessarily made a bad choice. Consistency counts for something.

I get what you are saying on Hosmer... but I tried not to put in 1st or 2nd year players, just because they might just be worth all of the hype. I know there was a lot of hype for Hosmer, Lawrie, Darvish.... but I tried not to use hyped guys without a track record. Just a little different take.

And yes I hear ya on Teixeira, but his severely declining batting average scares me. I only bring up Konerko as an example, but for me, consistancy that Konerko brings you or the upside that Freeman might bring you is what I was saying. Teixeira, if paired with the right guys, would win you a title... I just think he is overrated as far as being a 2nd round pick. I think, in the 2nd round, there needs to be little negative in a guys game. Maybe a 3 category guy with an average BA would be ok, but drafting a guy in the 2nd round that has a very good chance to hurt you in a category, is risky and I don't like too much risk in the 2nd round. Yes, Teixeira is the last of the top 7 first basemen, then there is a big slide... but truthfully, if I didn't get one of the top 6, I would just as well wait and fill in other positions. Don't get me wrong... I don't think those who took Teixeira in the 2nd round made a "bad" choice". Paired with the right guys, he can definitely win you a title.

headhunters wrote:2 things- in full support of mr. kings. yes- we know it is your opinion- but when you (and many others) use the phrase "I don't understand"- that can be taken at face value- or as an insult to those that drafted said player. at face value- edward gave very good reasons to "help you understand". bats 4th, 28, good hitting park, bats lefty. in fact- it might be you that doesn't understand. double in fact- those are all reasons (except switch hitter) that people drafted weiters. 2nd thing- and ryan pointed this out- is roster construction and draft flow. you could miss on konerko. you are in second round- you don't know what will happen in round 5 and you want a power 1st basemen. for me- at pick 25 in st louis it was (in my mind) between hos and tex. i took tex. you would have said you were going to pass and wait for konerko in round 5- except in st louis he went in round 4. better to say- "lots of good 1st basemen late- i will wait" than to say " i will just take konerko. that is a roster construction issue. i get tex and someone in 5 and you get someone else in round 2 and not the guy you wanted in 5.

Please let me know when I said "I don't understand". I gave my opinion and gave alternative later round picks.. I never said that "I don't understand" and if you look at my rosters in all of my leagues, many of these players are on them (especially Montero and Rollins). So.. if I am insulting anyone, it includes myself. I believe what I believe.... doesn't mean I am right. Just giving you my opinion.

One thing....
Teixeira is on the list because of a falling average.
Yet, taking Martin eight rounds later is better than Montero.
Martin's average, even during his last resurgent year, has fallen every year since 2007.

Just sayin'

These kind of lists are tough...

sorry- that really is my bad. you said " i don't see why". my bad. but.............. his explanation was to tell why you might "see why". and then the rest of what i said holds true. we know they are your opinions and i think kings gave good reasons why montero is a good 6th round pick. my other point on tex was roster construction.

1B - Mark Teixeira - Consistantly a 2nd round pick, YES, he gives you superior HR and RBI numbers, but his batting average has been declining rapidly, and would much rather wait on a guy like Paul Konerko in the 5th or 6th round that gives you 30-100-.300.

I would take Teixeira in the 2nd rd over "off the juice" Pujols in the 1st any day...Pujols has to be the most OVERRATED player during the frist 4-weeks, possibly EVER! He's absolutley killing two of my teams, what a joke.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:One thing....
Teixeira is on the list because of a falling average.
Yet, taking Martin eight rounds later is better than Montero.
Martin's average, even during his last resurgent year, has fallen every year since 2007.

Just sayin'

These kind of lists are tough...

I think you misunderstand... I did not say Martin was better than Montero. Obviously I know that Montero is worth more than Martin. I said, it might be better to wait for Martin, instead of taking Montero in the 6th round, and take a more proven, better producing player in the 6th round.

I will stop the lists.. I was trying to be point out some overrated and underrated fantasy players.. Just giving an opinion.

BK METS wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:One thing....
Teixeira is on the list because of a falling average.
Yet, taking Martin eight rounds later is better than Montero.
Martin's average, even during his last resurgent year, has fallen every year since 2007.

Just sayin'

These kind of lists are tough...

I think you misunderstand... I did not say Martin was better than Montero. Obviously I know that Montero is worth more than Martin. I said, it might be better to wait for Martin, instead of taking Montero in the 6th round, and take a more proven, better producing player in the 6th round.

I will stop the lists.. I was trying to be point out some overrated and underrated fantasy players.. Just giving an opinion.

Don't stop the lists! I certainly did not take any offense (nor do I believe anyone else did or should) and enjoy a good argument (which is much different than a fight). To me it provides good discussion and content for the boards.

Bring it on!

I don't misunderstand. You stated that you didn't see why Montero should be taken eight rounds ahead of Martin. The reason is the same reason for the Teixeira dis.
No big deal.

I agree with Wayne. You shouldn't stop lists because of disagreements. Disagreements are the backbone and heart and soul of the Boards. My daughter says her and her husband never fight. I guess that's great for public consumption, but at the same time, I think they have a very dull marriage.
Same on the Boards
Just think if we were all like Glenn and agreed with everything Greg said
It'd be great for Greg! But darned boring for the rest of us!

Keep making the lists and people like me be damned for disagreeing with you!

Lively discussion here. I have to speak up on Uggla. It makes no sense that he goes so high. You can get Carlos Pena who has an almost identical skill set 12 rounds later. Second base, you say? Bah, 2B is not worth much more than OF this year. Hell, my Utility guy is a second baseman.

No, he probably won't hit .233 again, but he probably isn't going to hit much better than .250 either. My system has him at 79/32/96/.253/2. That is a totally fair estimate of what he may do (maybe a bit light on runs, we'll see) and it's just not that valuable of a line. It makes him the 8th most valuable second baseman in my system, just ahead of, yes, Kelly Johnson (13th round), Danny Espinosa (11), Aaron Hill (14), and Jose Altuve (19).

Even worse is Ricky Weeks. I don't have much of a problem with his skills but after you account for injury risk he is not near worth where he goes.

I commented that Longoria is a bad pick on these boards a while ago, but after doing the analysis, I've come around on him. He has mad skills and plays at a weak position.

Finally, imo, the worst way to estimate future ERA is by using past ERA. Greinke had just about the best peripherals of any pitcher last year. You replay the season and give him those same rates, he is going to be an easy Cy Young candidate. I believe his swing-and-miss rate wasn't on par with his K/9 so that's a good argument for regression. I believe in him, but if I didn't I'd dig deep, not shallow.

bjoak wrote:Lively discussion here. I have to speak up on Uggla. It makes no sense that he goes so high. You can get Carlos Pena who has an almost identical skill set 12 rounds later. Second base, you say? Bah, 2B is not worth much more than OF this year. Hell, my Utility guy is a second baseman.

No, he probably won't hit .233 again, but he probably isn't going to hit much better than .250 either. My system has him at 79/32/96/.253/2. That is a totally fair estimate of what he may do (maybe a bit light on runs, we'll see) and it's just not that valuable of a line. It makes him the 8th most valuable second baseman in my system, just ahead of, yes, Kelly Johnson (13th round), Danny Espinosa (11), Aaron Hill (14), and Jose Altuve (19).

Even worse is Ricky Weeks. I don't have much of a problem with his skills but after you account for injury risk he is not near worth where he goes.

I commented that Longoria is a bad pick on these boards a while ago, but after doing the analysis, I've come around on him. He has mad skills and plays at a weak position.

Finally, imo, the worst way to estimate future ERA is by using past ERA. Greinke had just about the best peripherals of any pitcher last year. You replay the season and give him those same rates, he is going to be an easy Cy Young candidate. I believe his swing-and-miss rate wasn't on par with his K/9 so that's a good argument for regression. I believe in him, but if I didn't I'd dig deep, not shallow.

100% correct on Longoria and Greinke. If you think Longoria is a batting average risk, well....you may want to take another look at the underlying stats. He's more likely to .300 than .260. His K rate keeps decreasing while his BB rate keeps increasing, he hits for power, throws in some steals, and plays a premium position. He's also just entering his prime. I think he's the favorite to win AL MVP this year.

Whether Uggla is a good pick or not depends on how you want to construct your team. He's not the kind of player I generally draft that early, but different strokes....

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I don't misunderstand. You stated that you didn't see why Montero should be taken eight rounds ahead of Martin. The reason is the same reason for the Teixeira dis.
No big deal.

I agree with Wayne. You shouldn't stop lists because of disagreements. Disagreements are the backbone and heart and soul of the Boards. My daughter says her and her husband never fight. I guess that's great for public consumption, but at the same time, I think they have a very dull marriage.
Same on the Boards
Just think if we were all like Glenn and agreed with everything Greg said
It'd be great for Greg! But darned boring for the rest of us!

Keep making the lists and people like me be damned for disagreeing with you!

Wayne and Dough, I'm not convinced you're right - there are more reasons to avoid posting lists. Here's my top 10:

1. Any list is either negative or exclusionary by nature, so any list is a slap in the face either directly (for negative lists) or by absence (for positive lists). BK just sealed his fate with me, because people that make lists are at the top of my list of people that I hate.

2. Every player discussed will be on someone's team, and you shouldn't offend people because of a bad draft choice. Someone in every league will disagree with every player listed, so keep it to yourself unless it's over something obvious like the idiots that drafted Ichiro, screw those guys.

3. Your comments might be misinterpreted. Like when Ozzie Guillen said he loved Fidel Castro, but what he meant was that he loves Cuban people. There could be death threats, why risk it?

4. If people agree with parts of your list but disagree with others, you'll leave them conflicted. Then they'll start viewing you as gekko II, not knowing what is real and correct and what is meant to throw you off the trail.

5. On the other hand, if people really like your lists, they might push you to create and populate a new forum, such as BK Mets's Daily Lists. Then you'd have to retire and rack your brain all day to come up with interesting content.

6. If you're wrong about a player, you'll be criticized later in the year. So unless you trash an obvious no-talent zero, once again I'll use my Ichiro example, you might look foolish in a few months.

7. Your league-mates will see your true tendancies and know how you think. So when Sunday rolls around, you'll have to bid triple to get a player you really like, such as Gekko and the Estrada train.

8. Writing words is time-consuming. Geniuses get their point across with stick figures. Try to look smart, not stupid.

9. Top ten lists were cool when David Letterman was a skinny kid from Indiana getting a new gig on TV in New York. They're very 80s, don't risk looking like a dork by making a top 10 list.

So to summarize, lists are exclusionary and negative, offensive, a threat to your well-being, conflicting, foolish, self-defeating, stupid and just not cool.

Or in the words of Jupinka ...

10.

KJ Duke wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:I don't misunderstand. You stated that you didn't see why Montero should be taken eight rounds ahead of Martin. The reason is the same reason for the Teixeira dis.
No big deal.

I agree with Wayne. You shouldn't stop lists because of disagreements. Disagreements are the backbone and heart and soul of the Boards. My daughter says her and her husband never fight. I guess that's great for public consumption, but at the same time, I think they have a very dull marriage.
Same on the Boards
Just think if we were all like Glenn and agreed with everything Greg said
It'd be great for Greg! But darned boring for the rest of us!

Keep making the lists and people like me be damned for disagreeing with you!

Wayne and Dough, I'm not convinced you're right - there are more reasons to avoid posting lists. Here's my top 10:

1. Any list is either negative or exclusionary by nature, so any list is a slap in the face either directly (for negative lists) or by absence (for positive lists). BK just sealed his fate with me, because people that make lists are at the top of my list of people that I hate.

2. Every player discussed will be on someone's team, and you shouldn't offend people because of a bad draft choice. Someone in every league will disagree with every player listed, so keep it to yourself unless it's over something obvious like the idiots that drafted Ichiro, screw those guys.

3. Your comments might be misinterpreted. Like when Ozzie Guillen said he loved Fidel Castro, but what he meant was that he loves Cuban people. There could be death threats, why risk it?

4. If people agree with parts of your list but disagree with others, you'll leave them conflicted. Then they'll start viewing you as gekko II, not knowing what is real and correct and what is meant to throw you off the trail.

5. On the other hand, if people really like your lists, they might push you to create and populate a new forum, such as BK Mets's Daily Lists. Then you'd have to retire and rack your brain all day to come up with interesting content.

6. If you're wrong about a player, you'll be criticized later in the year. So unless you trash an obvious no-talent zero, once again I'll use my Ichiro example, you might look foolish in a few months.

7. Your league-mates will see your true tendancies and know how you think. So when Sunday rolls around, you'll have to bid triple to get a player you really like, such as Gekko and the Estrada train.

8. Writing words is time-consuming. Geniuses get their point across with stick figures. Try to look smart, not stupid.

9. Top ten lists were cool when David Letterman was a skinny kid from Indiana getting a new gig on TV in New York. They're very 80s, don't risk looking like a dork by making a top 10 list.

So to summarize, lists are exclusionary and negative, offensive, a threat to your well-being, conflicting, foolish, self-defeating, stupid and just not cool.

Or in the words of Jupinka ...

10.

Seems like another list, to me at least That's ok KJ, if you hate me. I was just having some fun. If this is what constitutes being on "KJs list of hated people", then thank you for welcoming me to the club. I am in many leagues with you, including your 2 MLBC leagues. Strong words for something as harmless as a few opinions, when I prefaced both lists by saying that I personally bought into the hype on the overrated players and missed out on the underrated players. I am sorry I didn't conform to your post "etiquette". I will work on that, next time.

facepalm.jpg

Pssst Alan, as one Mets fan to another, KJ was being facetious (and quite funny if you ask me).
Love the Juprinka line.

Keep posting Bud....if others don't like 'em, screw 'em.

BK METS wrote:
I am in many leagues with you, including your 2 MLBC leagues.

Alan, all those drafts and you haven't pegged my sense of humor yet?