NFBC Message Boards

Hey folks, we're happy to welcome our good friend Matthew Berry to the forums today. It should be an entertaining hour -- assuming Matt shows up on time.



To get things started here are Matt's answers to some questions asked in advance:



1. Where does Gagne go? How much in auction?



I think he's a solid, upper level closer in the Cordero (both of them), Izzy, Hoffman level. But it's hard for me to say becuase I never draft closers high or pay for them. I have long long long been a "Never Pay for Saves" guy - before it was cool, baby. In an NL Only auction, I wouldn't pay more than $23 or so for him. Too many questions marks.



But seriously. Think about Chad Cordero getting 40 saves last year. Think about the Brian Fuentes, Derrick Turnbow, Todd Jones of the world. You can always find saves. Gagne has been hurt most of the past two years... it's just too much risk for what it will probably cost for me.





2. My first question is on I. Suzuki. I had him two years ago and he was money but his fantasy worth as an early round pick is tied up in his speed. Not just stolen bases, but his BA is predicated on beating out ground balls. At 32 most speedsters are at risk of losing a step, which could be danger for an extreme GB hitter. Do you think that Suzuki is still a good late first round, early second round choice?





Closer to mid second round, I think. He's gonna get you 30 bags, hit .300 and score a bunch of runs, but I don't see any upside. At the end of the 1st, I'd rather have Jason Bay or Chone Figgins (I'm a posistion scarcity ***** ) or David Wright or even Crawford if he is still available (just got him at 11 in a draft Id id yesterday). Guys that will get those numbers and could explode for more...



3. Do you have any speed sleepers that do not play in Tampa Bay?



Yes, in fact, we have over 2500 words devoted to this very subject in the TalentedMrRoto.com MLB Draft Kit, he said whoringly. But I like Eric Reed and Jeremy Hermidia in Florida, Ronny Cendeno in Chi-N, Chris Duffy and Nate McLouth in Pit (both of them will play), Curtis Granderson in Det... if you wanna go real deep, Jerry Hairston in Chi-N, Eric Young and (if he makes the team) Freddy Guzman in SD, anyone on the Angels - seriously - and Jason Ellison in SF.



Anderson Hernandez of the Mets and I think Renteria bounces back in a big way. Oh and Lofton still has wheels and LA will run this year.



4. Would you draft Guerrero 3rd overall?



Assuming Puljols and AROD are off the board, and we're talking Vladimir, not Wilton....of course.



5. Will Figgins repeat last year's performance and be worthy of an early to mid 2nd round pick?



Yes, very much so. Love his posistional flexibility, Angels did not get the big bat they wanted in off season so they will continue to generate offense by being one of the most aggressive base stealing teams in the bigs and Figgins is still very young. He's getting better....



6. Will Fat Bart be 100% opening day (I know you don't like him)?



Excuse me, that's Big Fat Bartolo Colon and yes, current indications are yes. That said, despite my personal feelings, my general rule is that you never pay for a career year. No way he does better this year than last and coupled with the injury, unless he drops below market value or past like the late 5th ... I would avoid. I would much rather wait for ten more rounds and get Kelvim Escobar or Ervin Santana, both of whom will have huge years for the Angels. Bud Black is the best pitching coach in MLB that no one has ever heard of...

I'm here. Let's get this party started. And no, Tom, that does not mean you take off your clothes.

Originally posted by Matt Berry TalentedMrRoto.com:

I'm here. Let's get this party started. And no, Tom, that does not mean you take off your clothes. Too late for that.



But carry on.

I'll kick it off Matt. Who would be your top sleeper pick for this season and who would be your top bust pick?

Matt, We had some discussion here on a statement made by one of you pro's who indicated he thought Third was a very deep position this year. Some disagreed. What do you think about the depth at third?

Hi Matt,



In NL Auction, how much for Gagne?



In NFBC, what round for Gagne?



Are you drafting this year in NFBC?

Any thoughts on the Reds closer situation?? If/when Weathers falters do they turn to Wagner, or is it Coffey??

Did we lose Matt?

I'm checking.

There seems to be something funky happening to the boards. Matt can't get through. He's going to keep trying.

Here are some answers from Matt:



well, quickly, my answers are that 3b is deeper this year but there are more ? at 1b in my opinion, so more CI will come from 3b making it more shallow.



20 for Gagne, 23 if 5x5 in NL - i wouldn't take him before 6 or 7. Not doing NFBC. No time.



biigest sleepers are frank thomas (incentive laden contract, hit hr every 8 AB last year) and Mike Jacobs. Biggets bust is furcal. his avg is below mendoza line in dodger stadium career

Hey folks, we're going to bag the chat for today since Matt's been having trouble accessing the site. He's rescheduled for 3 p.m. ET tomorrow. Sorry again and hopefully everyone can return tomorrow.

for about 20 minutes, I was getting that infamous "server not available" type message. And I had such a great question that got lost in bit-hell.

matt - will felix hernandez be the #1 or #2 SP entering draft day in 2007?



also, will cantu get 30 hr's this year?



thanks!

Don't know if we're starting a new thread or I'm just picking up this one. Yeah, Viper, man, I was getting that too. Driving me nuts.



Ok, Reds closer situation...I have to believe that Weathers loses gig fairly quickly - pretty much as soon as he realizes he is David Weathers. They want Wagner to be the guy - assuming he is throwing well in Spring Training, I think he's the logical guy there.



Gordon, very possibly on Felix, although I try to keep my prognastication to one year in advance. And honestly, does it matter if Felix is one, two or 5 in '07? He is a total stud. Legit in every possible way. Felix = Fantasy Goodness.



I'm not convinced Cantu gets enough AB to get 30, believe it or not. Upton has to play eventually and they like Lugo a lot as well. I'd count on 20 from Cantu and anything above that is gravy...

Matt, Why did you dump Konerko and Jenks for Buehrle and a half-eaten frozen pizza in Tout Wars? Thanks.

Originally posted by Matt Berry TalentedMrRoto.com:

Don't know if we're starting a new thread or I'm just picking up this one. Yeah, Viper, man, I was getting that too. Driving me nuts.



Ok, Reds closer situation...I have to believe that Weathers loses gig fairly quickly - pretty much as soon as he realizes he is David Weathers. They want Wagner to be the guy - assuming he is throwing well in Spring Training, I think he's the logical guy there.



Gordon, very possibly on Felix, although I try to keep my prognastication to one year in advance. And honestly, does it matter if Felix is one, two or 5 in '07? He is a total stud. Legit in every possible way. Felix = Fantasy Goodness.



I'm not convinced Cantu gets enough AB to get 30, believe it or not. Upton has to play eventually and they like Lugo a lot as well. I'd count on 20 from Cantu and anything above that is gravy... Wouldn't Cantu's at bats come from 3b then? I know everyone loves Sean Burroughs....

You're talking about the deal I made with Sam Walker at the deadline last year. And well, it just goes to show that every trade can't be judged in a vacuum. You have to understand where and what folks are doing and needing then.



I was set in power. Wasn't going to be able to make any moves up or down in HR and RBI.



I could, however, make up three points very quickly in K's and another 2 by end of season.



I also had Dan Johnson who I grabbed in the reserve round of the draft last year sitting on my bench. No one wanted to del for him becuase everyone thought Durazo was coming back. Couldn't give DJ away.



Of the top K pitchers, only Buerhle was on the market. So it was Konerko for Buerhle. Jenks was a throw in - he gave me back an crappy OF - I forget who - and he just wanted a MR for his pitching. He asked for Chad Orvella, actually. I had Baez and Hermanson and rumors then were Baez was going to White Sox. And remember, Jenks was getting lit his first few weeks he was up.



So... I didn't want to give away my Baez insurance and while I liked Jenks a lot - I grabbed him for a $0 bid the few weeks before - I didn't think there was a real chance he would close. And besides, I was in pretty good shape in saves.



So, at the time, I was dealing surpluss for a category where I really needed help and could move up quickly.



That's why. Sam doesn't give you all the details...

Matt,



Who are some movers and shakers on your draft board from anything you have heard out of spring training, aside from the obvious of Lawrence, Percival, B. Boone and Kip Wells?



Also, if Wickman breaks down do you see Mota or Betancourt getting first crack at the closer job? Still probably too soon for F. Cabrera.

OK, since were TB talking....



Gathright..How many AB's? Does he get traded?

How hard would you laugh if say in 2005, you were picking 10th in a 15 man league for over 1000 dollars with a ML universe and the guy before you used his first round pick on Ben Sheets?

Originally posted by Matt Berry TalentedMrRoto.com:

You're talking about the deal I made with Sam Walker at the deadline last year. And well, it just goes to show that every trade can't be judged in a vacuum. You have to understand where and what folks are doing and needing then.



I was set in power. Wasn't going to be able to make any moves up or down in HR and RBI.



I could, however, make up three points very quickly in K's and another 2 by end of season.



I also had Dan Johnson who I grabbed in the reserve round of the draft last year sitting on my bench. No one wanted to del for him becuase everyone thought Durazo was coming back. Couldn't give DJ away.



Of the top K pitchers, only Buerhle was on the market. So it was Konerko for Buerhle. Jenks was a throw in - he gave me back an crappy OF - I forget who - and he just wanted a MR for his pitching. He asked for Chad Orvella, actually. I had Baez and Hermanson and rumors then were Baez was going to White Sox. And remember, Jenks was getting lit his first few weeks he was up.



So... I didn't want to give away my Baez insurance and while I liked Jenks a lot - I grabbed him for a $0 bid the few weeks before - I didn't think there was a real chance he would close. And besides, I was in pretty good shape in saves.



So, at the time, I was dealing surpluss for a category where I really needed help and could move up quickly.



That's why. Sam doesn't give you all the details... Matthew, was Jenks the "closer" when you made this deal?

Chest, yes, possibly... except Huff will get AB there. They're gonna have a crowded OF and that's before Delmo Young comes up. DH will rotate as well.... I just think until we see what kind of manager Maddon is - and who "his" guys are - I am not comfortable thinking Cantu gets close to 600 AB again. Especially when his K/BB rate continues to be horrific.



I like him - he was on my pre-season sleeper list last year - I just think 20 is much more reasonable for him.

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How hard would you laugh if say in 2005, you were picking 10th in a 15 man league for over 1000 dollars with a ML universe and the guy before you used his first round pick on Ben Sheets? And how would you feel when that same fool beat you the next year?



Anyway, sorry, we should let him get back to the chat.

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

How hard would you laugh if say in 2005, you were picking 10th in a 15 man league for over 1000 dollars with a ML universe and the guy before you used his first round pick on Ben Sheets? And how would you feel when that same fool beat you the next year?



Anyway, sorry, we should let him get back to the chat. [/QUOTE]I have seen your draft, no worries about you beating me.



I just thought mr roto should know the guy giving him a hard time about the trade is also the same guy who used a mid 1st round pick that way.



Call it my own little public service announcement.