NFBC Message Boards

The top three players on most draft lists right now are Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera. A case could be made for other players, but those three seem to be at the top of most draft boards right now.

So what the heck, let's see what the NFBC owners have to say about these top three players. If given the choice today, who would you pick first overall? Feel free to make your vote above and then post a reasoning below. Thanks all.

(Just an FYI: After you vote once, you have access to the vote totals going forward. This poll will last 10 days.)

Greg: Tough choice, but I went with Braun for my vote. I think Trout is going to be great, but it is tough to see him matching or exceeding his performance from last year. Possible - yes; likely - not sure. Even if Trout's upside may be the highest, Braun and Miggy have been doing it year after year, and so I have them over Trout. I guess I give a slight edge to Braun because of the stolen bases. For the AVG, HR, R, and RBI categories, I think Miggy is the best. But, when you add the SB category to the equation, it puts Braun ahead of Miggy, in my mind at least, because the two are relatively close on the other four categories but Braun has a huge advantage over Miggy in SBs. At the top of a draft, the ideal pick would be strong five-category performance with great consistency and health. I think Braun fits that bill. Now, if you'll only give me the first pick in my upcoming slow draft, I'll put my money where my mouth is ....

Mike

I'm amazed every time I look at Mike Trout's numbers from last season. Some of his splits are very telling of his talent:

.399 OBP
49 of 54 in stolen base attempts (90.7%)
He hit .346-23-66-44 against RHPs
He hit .318-16-39 at home and .332-14-44 on the road
He hit .341-12-40 before the All-Star break and .312-18-43 after the break
He hit .324 with runners in scoring position and .341 leading off an inning
He did all of this despite not turning 21 until Aug. 7th

When you look at Trout's final numbers, it's hard to argue with the fact that they actually could go up since he played only 139 games in 2012. Despite the May call-up, he still led the league in runs (129) and stolen bases (49). Imagine what he could do in 162 games, right?

Well, the one statistic that scares me the most is last year's .383 BABIP. This means that his average was .383 for every ball he hit in play. That's either hitting the ball extremely hard or extremely fortunate or maybe even defenses not quite positioned in the right spots during his debut season. There's no way that he can continue to have a .383 BABIP, so the batting average would likely be the first of his numbers to fall. And you have to wonder if eventually he won't move into a power-hitting position in the lineup even though he could be the fastest player in the majors. At 6'1", 200, he has the body and solid swing of a power-hitter and I could see the Angels eventually moving him down in the lineup (although probably not this year).

I'm looking forward to seeing a full season of Trout in 2013. I'm not sure he can duplicate 2012, but I can't wait to find out. If I was projecting his numbers now, I know I'd lower the BA, but with good health you could make a case for all of the other counting numbers to be right there or slightly improved. They don't compare him to Mickey Mantle for nothing.

matt kemp and carlos gonzalez are just 2 reasons why i wouldnt take an OF #1 overall. I feel like every year there is some new hot OF to pounce on. Elsbury, josh hamilton and justin upton are 3 others from past years that were must haves.

miguel cabrera plays one of the toughest positions to get quality fantasy stats from, so while trout and braun may put up better overall numbers mostly because of steals then you need look at who you can get later on. i think it makes far more sense to go with the guy that doesnt play the Outfield. i know we keep hoping that pablo lays off the fatty foods, that zimmerman finally shows us what he can do, we hope that beltre and longoria can stay healthy a whole season and we all hope, if we draft him, that hanley ramirez starts to get his shit together. i wont even mention gekko's new favorite chase headley because who honestly thinks he duplicates what he did. i dont. then its not so much what you can get with your first pick, but what combo gets you the best stats.

if i see miggy or braun ill pass all day on trout. everyone just had to have hosmer and lawrie last season and what happened? now i know that trout is far more polished player but dont you all worry that after one season it could go to his head? that maybe this offseason he doesnt work as hard because he is already counting his stats like all of you are? dont you think that maybe pitchers have a better book on the kid, or simply bear down more and put more effort into pitching to him? there is way too many question marks for me to pass on those other 2 guys.

We posted this survey before the Draft Champions Leagues started and the final results were as follows:
Braun 43%
Trout 29%
Cabrera 26%

However, during our first 9 NFBC Draft Champions Leagues, going first were:
Cabrera - 4 times
Trout - 3 times
Braun - 2 times

It will be tough for any player to crack the Top 3 this off-season unless something strange happens (which obviously can and does happen). It's the 4th pick where things get interesting. Robinson Cano went 4th 7 times, while Andrew McCutchen and Matt Kemp went 4th once each.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:We posted this survey before the Draft Champions Leagues started and the final results were as follows:
Braun 43%
Trout 29%
Cabrera 26%

However, during our first 9 NFBC Draft Champions Leagues, going first were:
Cabrera - 4 times
Trout - 3 times
Braun - 2 times

It will be tough for any player to crack the Top 3 this off-season unless something strange happens (which obviously can and does happen). It's the 4th pick where things get interesting. Robinson Cano went 4th 7 times, while Andrew McCutchen and Matt Kemp went 4th once each.

I think the Wisconsin contingent is stuffing the ballot box

Give me a sure thing at 1.1 in any draft. Give me Cabrerea, give me Braun. Give me Strasburg. Give me Pujols despite the stats declining a little. I'm taking the veteran guy each and every time at this position. I'm never drafting a guy like Trout this high in a draft. Ever.