What Are Your Thoughts On KDS For 2013

[Greg Ambrosius]

We have already set up 30+ NFBC leagues so far and it's been fun to watch the draft preferences of our current players. Not much has changed since we first started these drafts in November as folks seem to have the same strategies now as they did when we started. But of course things could change between now and late March.

I'm definitely seeing folks set their KDS preferences one way or another. The straight butter 1-15 isn't being used by many owners anymore. Veteran players know that planning a draft strategy ahead of time makes sense and thus even tweaking later preferences makes sense.

What I am seeing is a lot of folks picking spots 1, 2 and 3 in some order first of all. Some people go 1-2-3, some go 3-2-1 and some go 2-3-1. But the vast majority of owners are using those three picks somewhere near the top of their preferences. After that things get interesting. Some folks have the Top 5 or 6 picks at the top, while some owners go down to 15 or 14 or 13 after the Top 3.

So, if you don't mind displaying some of your strategies, what does your KDS preferences look like? What area of the draft are you most comfortable in? If you've done Draft Champions Leagues already, what are you learning about the different areas of the draft? Inquiring minds want to know if you're willing to provide some information. Thanks all.

[Edwards Kings]

First, I am going to get an old baseball cap. Then I am going to tear up some little pieces of paper numbered 1 to 15. As I pull them out, that will be my KDS!

[Greg Ambrosius]

First, I am going to get an old baseball cap. Then I am going to tear up some little pieces of paper numbered 1 to 15. As I pull them out, that will be my KDS!

Hey, that's how we did the draft orders in 2004!! My 9-year-old so enjoyed doing that. Now she's heading off to college and computers do this much more quickly for us and much more efficiently!! Damn I miss the old days!!

[ToddZ]

I'd love to start my squad with Braun or Cabrera, so 1 and 2 are at the top.

I'll let someone else take Trout.

Cano is the only other guy I am 100% comfortable with so I may put 4 then 3, figuring in almost all leagues, Trout will go top 3.

Then it gets hairy. Next up for me is McCutchen, but I'm not sure I prefer Cutch at 5 or a wheel pick to pair up a couple of others. Basically, I don't see a whole lot of difference between 5 and 15 in this year's pool.

And Greg, I see through your ruse -- this is just a way to help you pick your spot in the FSTA draft

[Bronx Yankees]

Sure, I'll take a crack at this. My most recent KDS was 2-1-3-11-10-9-8-12-13-7-15-14-6-5-4. My 2-1-3 start was based on how I view the top players. Like most, Braun, Miggy and Trout are my top 3. I place Trout a bit behind Braun and Miggy, however, because he only has done it for one year and I think he has bigger downside risk (not by much, just relative to Braun and Miggy). I would have a tough time picking between Braun and Miggy. I'd give a slight edge to Miggy in four of the five categories, but a big edge to Braun in SBs. It's always nice to get strong contributions to all five categories with your first pick, but I think OFs are more plentiful than 3Bs. Thus, because I have no strong preference between Braun or Miggy, I started out 2-1, figuring I'd be thrilled with whichever one was not taken. I put 3 next, because I'll gladly take a late 2nd round pick to have Trout and/or a chance that Braun or Miggy will fall to me.

Next, I put 4-5-6 at the back end of my KDS. I really do not like the 4th pick this year. If I had it, I probably would take Kemp because of his high upside. But, I don't see a huge difference between Kemp, McCutchen, Cano, Pujols and Votto. I also see at least one SP being taken in the first round (but not by me), and could happily live with Fielder or Bautista towards the back of Round 1 (and with a high 2nd round pick). Thus, after my 2-1-3 start, I went 11-10-9-8. I would rather have Fielder or Bautista and another pick around 20 than Kemp, McCutchen or Cano and not pick again until 26-27. Some may think that is stupid, but I expect very strong years from Fielder and Bautista. Figuring I probably could get one of the above hitters even later in the first round, I did 12-13 next. I'm not as crazy about picks 14 or 15 because, depending on who is taken before me, I might not get a first rounder that I really like.

I confess that I do not think beyond Round 2 in setting my KDS. To me, getting in the top 3 is worth a late second round pick. If I can't have a top 3 pick, I would rather pick in the 7-13 range than at 4-6.

By the way, for the above KDS, I was awarded pick 3 for a draft starting tonight. For three reasons, I have no qualms about revealing my strategy. First, for tonight's draft, I consider pick 3 to be somewhat "idiot proof." Whichever of Braun, Miggy and Trout is not taken with the first two picks will be taken by me (with apologies to whoever got the 4th pick and was hoping for a miracle ). Second, I can be very fickle, and may very well use a totally different KDS strategy and ranking of players in a future draft. Third, I am hoping that by posting this, others also will discuss their strategies, which I am very interested to read about.

Mike (Bronx Yankees)

[Greg Ambrosius]

I'd love to start my squad with Braun or Cabrera, so 1 and 2 are at the top.

I'll let someone else take Trout.

Cano is the only other guy I am 100% comfortable with so I may put 4 then 3, figuring in almost all leagues, Trout will go top 3.

Then it gets hairy. Next up for me is McCutchen, but I'm not sure I prefer Cutch at 5 or a wheel pick to pair up a couple of others. Basically, I don't see a whole lot of difference between 5 and 15 in this year's pool.

And Greg, I see through your ruse -- this is just a way to help you pick your spot in the FSTA draft

Yeah, just to let everyone know that we are picking our spots in next Monday's FSTA Experts League LIVE on SiriusXM tomorrow at 11 am ET. Once our name is drawn, we need to then pick our draft spot. So a live KDS on SiriusXM tomorrow.

I can say that I'd be happy to go 2,3,1 and then like you said maybe 6 or 7. I'd let someone else take 4 or 5 for me. I'm not saying why, but I'd be happy to move down a little. I'm not sure what after that. As we both know, in these industry drafts starting pitchers don't go early so there's less of a need to go all the way down to the bottom of the draft order to get some of the K's or other pitching stats you may want. It should be fun.

See ya tomorrow on air.

[ToddZ]

As we both know, in these industry drafts starting pitchers don't go early so there's less of a need to go all the way down to the bottom of the draft order to get some of the K's or other pitching stats you may want. It should be fun.

See ya tomorrow on air.

This is not a back-handed way of saying I'm taking Verlander or Kershaw in the first, but this trend is FINALLY changing, based on the mag mocks and other mocks and conversations I have done. I predicted this would be the trend two years ago and unlike the Mayans, it has come to fruition.

I think there may be some surprises on Monday night.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I asked a few drafters about this. Here are some comments-

1-15
Just give me the top player on my list. I will then calculate the inventory of the players left and make later selections based on that inventory- signed, Shawn Childs

Just give me 1-15
The rest of the drafters don't have my plan. No matter which number I am, I plan to have the best player in that round.
May as well start with MY choice. Each round thereafter, mine will be in the top three, no matter where I pick!
The simplicity of this game is an amusement to me- signed, Gekko

1 15
9128568198871237`91765713518734- 8765, 985 034
That one was from Todd

1-3, 7-9, 4-6, 10, 15, 13, 11, 14, 12
I just want to see if the NFBC is picking up what I'm laying down.
signed, Bryan Vogel

15-1
1-15 would be thought of as a progression. Going against the tide.
signed, Dan Kenyon

15, just give me 15, I want to give everybody else a fair chance at beating the best!
Mike the Mouth

[Greg Ambrosius]

As we both know, in these industry drafts starting pitchers don't go early so there's less of a need to go all the way down to the bottom of the draft order to get some of the K's or other pitching stats you may want. It should be fun.

See ya tomorrow on air.

This is not a back-handed way of saying I'm taking Verlander or Kershaw in the first, but this trend is FINALLY changing, based on the mag mocks and other mocks and conversations I have done. I predicted this would be the trend two years ago and unlike the Mayans, it has come to fruition.

I think there may be some surprises on Monday night.

I'm not seeing the same things as you Todd. In the Rotowire Magazine Draft, I got Strasburg in the 3rd round (39th overall) and Bumgarner in the 8th round. Industry writers still think you can fill in with starting pitchers at anytime and NFBC guys are definitely locking down aces earlier. There's a major difference in drafting philosophies. Last year in the FSTA Draft, I took the first pitcher (Kershaw) at No. 23. The lovely Kay Adams interviewed me on SiriusXM and asked if maybe I took a pitcher too high and if I should have gone with Halladay instead of Kershaw (sorry Kay, I made the right choice). Maybe there will be a tidal shift on Monday night, but I'd be surprised. I think SPs will be readily available later than NFBC drafts and I'm drafting with that in mind. If they surprise me, I'll be ready.

[ToddZ]

Strasburg is a polar guy -- not quite as much as Trout, but there are definite differences of opinion. My problem with Stras is the innings - I don't see more than 200-210 so he's at a disadvantage when compared to Verlander and Kershaw - 3rd is about right for me.

In the USA Today mag mock, 9 SP were taken by round 4, 12 by round 5. This is higher than previous years.

I'm not talking about the top guys. What we're seeing is the run of guys just below the elite is R3-R5 (like the NFBC) as opposed to R5-R7 like our industry brethren usually do.

Here are the first four rounds of a mock put together by Cory Schwartz, we do this every year by e-mail. This more a social gathering/experimental exercise than a serious mock though many of the guys are blogging about it

ROUND PICK TEAM PLAYER POS
1 1 Erickson Braun, Ryan OF
1 2 Carroll Trout, Mike OF
1 3 VanRiper Cabrera, Miguel 3B
1 4 Mack Kemp, Matt OF
1 5 Carty Cano, Robinson 2B
1 6 Zola McCutchen, Andrew OF
1 7 Gardner Votto, Joey 1B
1 8 Michaels Gonzalez, Carlos OF
1 9 Gonos Pujols, Albert 1B
1 10 Sheehan Posey, Buster C
1 11 Collette Stanton, Giancarlo OF
1 12 Steinhorn Fielder, Prince 1B
1 13 Flowers Kershaw, Clayton SP
1 14 DiFino Longoria, Evan 3B
1 15 Schwartz Tulowitzki, Troy SS

2 1 Schwartz Harper, Bryce OF
2 2 DiFino Hamilton, Josh OF
2 3 Flowers Verlander, Justin SP
2 4 Steinhorn Upton, Justin OF
2 5 Collette Reyes, Jose SS
2 6 Sheehan Kinsler, Ian 2B
2 7 Gonos Hernandez, Felix SP
2 8 Michaels Heyward, Jason OF
2 9 Gardner Pedroia, Dustin 2B
2 10 Zola Beltre, Adrian 3B
2 11 Carty Bautista, Jose OF
2 12 Mack Strasburg, Stephen SP
2 13 VanRiper Price, David SP
2 14 Carroll Phillips, Brandon 2B
2 15 Erickson Encarnacion, Edwin 1B

3 1 Erickson Granderson, Curtis OF
3 2 Carroll Darvish, Yu SP
3 3 VanRiper Wright, David 3B
3 4 Mack Castro, Starlin SS
3 5 Carty Lee, Cliff SP
3 6 Zola Hamels, Cole SP
3 7 Gardner Ramirez, Hanley SS
3 8 Michaels Zimmerman, Ryan 3B
3 9 Gonos Ellsbury, Jacoby OF
3 10 Sheehan Jones, Adam OF
3 11 Collette Upton, B.J. OF
3 12 Steinhorn Holliday, Matt OF
3 13 Flowers Bruce, Jay OF
3 14 DiFino Weaver, Jered SP
3 15 Schwartz Cespedes, Yoenis OF

4 1 Schwartz Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
4 2 DiFino Teixeira, Mark 1B
4 3 Flowers Gonzalez, Adrian 1B
4 4 Steinhorn Rollins, Jimmy SS
4 5 Collette Craig, Allen 1B
4 6 Sheehan Butler, Billy 1B
4 7 Gonos Andrus, Elvis SS
4 8 Michaels Zobrist, Ben 2B
4 9 Gardner Ramirez, Aramis 3B
4 10 Zola Choo, Shin-Soo OF
4 11 Carty Cain, Matt SP
4 12 Mack Kimbrel, Craig RP
4 13 VanRiper Bumgarner, Madison SP
4 14 Carroll Trumbo, Mark 1B/OF
4 15 Erickson Headley, Chase 3B

[Greg Ambrosius]

I would have to say that Cory pushed up Bryce Harper further than anyone else I've seen to date!! 16th overall is getting it done. Wow.

[Greg Ambrosius]

If Ray Flowers hadn't taken Kershaw and Verlander in Rounds 1 and 2, I'm not sure anyone else would have. I'll say that Ray is one of us and not part of the old guard!! Again, let's see what happens on Monday night. I have a feeling you and I will see value when these guys drop too far and scoop them up.

[ToddZ]

If Ray Flowers hadn't taken Kershaw and Verlander in Rounds 1 and 2, I'm not sure anyone else would have. I'll say that Ray is one of us and not part of the old guard!! Again, let's see what happens on Monday night. I have a feeling you and I will see value when these guys drop too far and scoop them up.

Ray is a pitching late guy and admitted to seeing how a team would look if he went to the dark side. I applaud him for that.

By the comments after the picks, they would not have been on the board very much longer.

In a few early drafts, I have purposely done the opposite of Ray and waited a little longer than normal for my first arm and have Jordan Zimmermann anchoring a couple of teams.

Keeping in mind while Lawr will not be physically at the draft Monday, we will be hooked up via g-chat, I suspect we'll have a pitcher fairly early.

My problem will be holding him off on the second one -- but the microphone will be in front of me

[Captain Hook]

IF we are talking NFBC, one should have a great (personal) reason to stray from 1-15.
Shawn and some of the other top players tend to go that way every draft - they know the player pool and feel like you should get the best player available.

BUT IF you also know the people in your draft well enough to solidly judge what will happen (and if you think none of them will make a mistake relative to your rankings) then you might pick a (much) later spot than where you are drawn to make a strategic pick.

I am generally not willing to bet on somebody in front of me not making an error and I probably have a different draft list than the generally accepted ADP - look at this year as an example the first three picks are set absent some aberrant drafter and Cano usually goes 4th .... but there are lots of people who would draft Kemp or McCutchen or even Verlander or Strasburg that I want to go 5th so I can get Don'tyaknow in lots of drafts etc., etc., etc.