Will Justin Upton's Trade To Atlanta Improve His Value?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:05 am

Each week on our STATS Fantasy Advantage show on SiriusXM, Tom and I will open the first segment with a look at the moves that took place during the last week and analyze their impact on fantasy drafts. We will give our opinions on those moves, but we also want to give YOUR opinions on those moves. That's right, we're going to read 2 or 3 opinions from our NFBC members each week.

What I'm looking for is 2-3 sentences with STRONG opinions. Something like Twitter feedback, 140 characters or so. That will allow us to read 2-3 good ones. Okay, step up to the plate and provide this one:

Q: Will Justin Upton's trade to Atlanta help or hurt his value in the NFBC in 2013? Why or why not?

I'll give you one more question to respond to, even though I'm not creating a poll for this one:

Q: Now that Brian Cashman has stated that it's possible that Alex Rodriguez could miss the entire season with his hip injury, would you even consider drafting him in our 30-round, 15-team Main Event? Why or why not?

Let's see some responses and we'll read the best ones on the air, AFTER we give our opinions!!

Let's do it.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:00 am

I will start with the easy one - Absent any more information by draft date I don't think Alex Rodriguez is draftable with 30 man rosters with no DL slots. We aren't sure if or when he will play in 2013 and at what level he might be at when he first returns and roster spots are far too valuable to tie one up for three months or longer.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:23 am

Both of the Upton's have long been touted with superstar ability, but lacked consistency or motivation. Justin's value goes up under the assumption that his brother as well as the other young uber-stud Heyward will challenge and motivate him. Obvioulsy unhappy in Arizona, Upton should also get a boost from the player friendly but competitive Atlanta organization.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:28 am

The talk of ARod being out for the season can be treated as so much hot stove noise. However, since he will have to miss a potentially extensive portion of the early season, fantasy owners must be willing to waste a reserve spot for a DL stash for an unknown period of time. In a 15-Team 30 Rounder, ARod garners only a late round flyer and most of those from Yankee fans.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:15 pm

The Upton's picked the wrong team.
Sure, they may play on a pennant contender. And, their fantasy stock may rise as both have remembrances of their childhoods in trying to out-do each other on the field.
Heck, they may even both be drafted in first rounds next year.

BUT, they are 542 home runs away from Hank and Tommie Aaron in home runs hit by brothers in the Majors.
Worse, even setting a TEAM record for home runs by brothers is not probable.
Hank and Tommie had 746 of those home runs in the Braves organization.

Roy's Outlaws · Post by **Roy's Outlaws** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:35 pm

Justin Upton ADP will move up to 11-13 because someone will think that this will now be his breakout year. New team and playing with his brother will help motivate him. Good luck to them.... IMHO both Upton's = high blood pressure and sleepless nights. I'll let them be someone else headache.

A-ROD I think will be back by late July, but have no idea what type of player he will be? Can't waste a roster spot for that long, plus the Yankees are hoping he doesn't come back at all this season so they can collect the insurance on his contract .

Roy

CALI CARTEL · Post by **CALI CARTEL** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:38 pm

Upton will be a wash in drafts -- stats will be negatively affected by park, but will be positively affected by better lineup.

I don't think I was planning on drafting A-Rod before the news came out that he might miss the year.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:39 pm

Roy's Outlaws wrote:IMHO both Upton's = high blood pressure and sleepless nights. I'll let them be someone else headache.
Roy

OHHHH!!! We might have a winner here!! Nice job Roy.

In the first five NFBC drafts after his trade from Arizona to Atlanta, Justin Upton went 19th, 13th, 19th, 21st and 27th. His ADP before the trade was 24. So Roy is right, his stock will go up and maybe as far as the first round. Interesting.

Bronx Yankees · Post by **Bronx Yankees** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:52 pm

There is no physical reason why Justin Upton's draft value should increase due to his trade to Atlanta. The home ballpark is less friendly than the one he is leaving, and the lineups are about equal. But, as Yogi said, baseball is ninety percent mental (and the other half is physical). Getting out of Arizona, where he wasn't wanted, will be a plus. Playing with his brother will be another plus. Being healthy - assuming he stays that way - would also be an improvement over last year when he dealt with a nagging injury. You put it all together, and you get an improved Justin Upton. Whether we see the MVP-caliber Justin Upton that folks have been waiting for, however, is the million dollar question. I'm skeptical that we will see Top 10 performance out of J-Up, but his prior position in drafts as a late-2nd round or even early-3rd round pick was too low.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:10 pm

AROD - definitely not a draft and hold. But maybe a draft, 1st cut, bury in FA list #30 pick. By the All-Star break he'll be forgotten by half the league that he's sitting in the FA pool and can be a nice $2 FAAB pickup a month before he comes back.

However only if he's a player that is NOT made available if he wasn't drafted. He'll start the season on the DL and in most leagues won't be drafted. Since he won't be on the active roster come draft day will he show in the FA pool in April ? Greg do you know the rule for the DL player ? I don't recall if the DL type players are available if they weren't initially drafted.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:00 pm

Quahogs wrote:AROD - definitely not a draft and hold. But maybe a draft, 1st cut, bury in FA list #30 pick. By the All-Star break he'll be forgotten by half the league that he's sitting in the FA pool and can be a nice $2 FAAB pickup a month before he comes back.

However only if he's a player that is NOT made available if he wasn't drafted. He'll start the season on the DL and in most leagues won't be drafted. Since he won't be on the active roster come draft day will he show in the FA pool in April ? Greg do you know the rule for the DL player ? I don't recall if the DL type players are available if they weren't initially drafted.

Those are good points Steve. I do believe that A-Rod will be available view FAAB even if he's not drafted originally because our rules state that DL players are eligible via FAAB. You won't have to draft him in the 30th round and then cut him because he will be there anyway. So you are right, it will be very interesting to see when he starts getting picked up and stored on reserve rosters in the NFBC. From our rules:

12. Free Agents

Any player who is not on a team roster within your league and is on a major league roster or once was on an NFBC team in your league is considered a free agent for that league. Even players on the MLB disabled list are eligible to be picked up during the FAAB bidding process.

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:47 pm

Enjoyed listening to you on xm this morning Greg and I want to chime in on the NFBC player/FSTA Draft conversation you were having. The proposition centered around whether the NFBC player knows more than the industry pro due to the disparity in our respective ADP's. Honestly, I don't have a clearcut answer for that, but I do know that the NFBC player has a home grown ADP list that we all participate in creating, consequently we know that if we want Verlander/Strasburg/Kershaw we better start thinking about them at the end of the first round. I'm not sure if it's the right play, but their ADP value is driven by our internal marketplace. To put it another way 'The things that come to those who wait are what's left behind by those who got there first'. I can't quite remember who I'm stealing that line from, but it's a fit nonetheless. And yes you can put me down as another vote saying you should have taken Strasburg in the third round of the FSTA draft

I think Upton will get a small/medium bump in ADP value after the trade to Atlanta, despite the obvious move from a hitters park to a site friendlier to pitchers. Two reasons: While happier players don't always make for better players, I do think that the happy camper factor will be in play here and secondly and perhaps more importantly is that the mystery surrounding him is over. We're like the stock market, nothing upsets us fantasy players more than uncertainty.

As for Arod, based on his presently surmised status, the only people who will draft him outside of Yankeedom are those who get to that point late in the draft feeling that they mangled the 3B/corner position. Unless his status is upgraded substantially, (pre all-star break) I recommend they not waste the draft pick. They'll end up dropping him long before he comes off the DL. Our 7 reserve spots are too valuable and few.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:15 am

Okay, this is a good start, but is this it for our SiriusXM show?? C'mon, we need some more feedback to read on the air and mention the names of the authors behind these quips. The top 2-3 points get on the air. Let's see some more opinions on Justin Upton. What do you have for us?

Check out the poll above after you've voted. The results are very interesting right now.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:31 am

Greg,

As a die hard Yankee fan if A Rod never suited up again for the Bombers that would be fine by me! (Wishful thinking, I know). That being said, as for being rosterable (or draftable) I would not touch him. Main reason is money. The Yankees can recoup a large portion of A Rod's 2013 salary but only if he was to miss the ENTIRE season due to injury. I am not saying that is going to happen but I do believe he will be "strongly encouraged" to sit out the year.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:44 am

ALL-IN JD wrote:Greg,

As a die hard Yankee fan if A Rod never suited up again for the Bombers that would be fine by me! (Wishful thinking, I know). That being said, as for being rosterable (or draftable) I would not touch him. Main reason is money. The Yankees can recoup a large portion of A Rod's 2013 salary but only if he was to miss the ENTIRE season due to injury. I am not saying that is going to happen but I do believe he will be "strongly encouraged" to sit out the year.

See, now that is a good analysis!! That could definitely see some air time, I think.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:52 am

My rates are reasonable too!!

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:25 am

Upton's best years were 2009 and 2011 (EOY trend). Mashes at Turner... three year slash line is .406/ .457/ .656. No Gibson, improved club chemistry and better lineup will offer more opportunities... age 25, five-tool player and doesn't need to be the hero with BJ, Heyward, Uggla, Freeman and McCann around him. Everything points upward for him.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:32 am

Maybe a new topic should be added-
That report out of Miami is scary stuff for A LOT of ball players.....

Lobbyist999 · Post by **Lobbyist999** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:50 am

Captain Hook wrote:I will start with the easy one - Absent any more information by draft date I don't think Alex Rodriguez is draftable with 30 man rosters with no DL slots.

Might be time to include PED slots in league settings.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:30 am

Even a Yankee fan, thinking of taking a flyer on ARod late will probably say no now.

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:43 am

Gio Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz have been mentioned as well.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:49 am

Fourslot40 wrote:Gio Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz have been mentioned as well.

Yep, we can look for their adp to take a tumble...

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