DOUGHBOYS wrote:I really enjoyed Jason Grey's commentary before he left to be with the Rays (Does that organization know talent or what?!
I suppose someone had to enjoy that hack
Todd, being a writer, you influence a lot of folks.
Are there any writers that you are influenced by?
Who?
A few names come to mind as an influence, then a couple more I'll share as guys I enjoy reading now.
Before there was Twitter, Facebook, the NFBC Forum, the Mastersball Forum, there was recreation.sports.baseball.fantasy one of the old usenet newsgroups. Here is where I first encountered Rotoman, aka Peter Kreutzer. I admired his intelligence, I admired his style and I admired the way he handled himself in a public forum. So I began following his work including a chapter on projections in one of the Peter Golenbock books ('93 or '94 I believe). From those book I also happened upon Les Leopold whose ideas have withstood the test of time and would still be apropos today - mostly auction dynamics (keep in mind back then almost all game play was AL and NL only 4x4 auctions with no FAAB or reserves). And you can't mention Peter without citing Alex Patton, one of the true pioneers in this hobby.
So these guys influenced my game theory style of thinking. Knowing the "non-baseball" stuff.
Then there is Ron Shandler who brought advanced analysis to the mainstream. Anyone who plays this game whether they want to admit it or not is influenced by Ron, because if you didn't formulate an opinion based on something Ron wrote, you formulated it based on something written by someone influenced by Ron. I suspect Ron and I share some early influences like Patton, Leopold, Golenbock, Benson, Mann etc.
But the guy that tied it altogether was that hack, Jason Grey. He was the absolute best at melding analytics, scouting and playing fantasy when he wrote. And he also gave me the best advice I ever received and it why my influences stop there. For those that don't know, Jas founded Mastersball in 1997 and brought me on as one of his first writers. It had to be around 2001 or 2002, when I had sort of established a name for myself, we were grabbing a sandwich before an AFL game in November and I asked him what he wanted me to write about for the upcoming season and he said that's the last time he wants me to ask that question -- because the answer is always going to be the same thing from now on -- put yourself in the place of someone reading a web site looking for information they can't find anywhere and write about that. And the rest, as they say, is history. I developed my own style and did my thing.
As for who I think is really good presently, it doesn't bet any better than ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft. He doesn't have the scouting that Jas had, but he has everything else. The other name is someone those playing the FanDuel games should Google - Derek Carty. Kid knows his shizzle and is learning how to apply raw stats knowledge to fantasy.
Also, we don't expect a Ryan Braun or Mike Trout to come out of nowhere in any given year, but these two have shown it can happen.
In your mind, who is the most likely candidate(s) to be taken lightly by NFBC drafters, but finishing in first rounds of drafts next year?
I sort of disagree with the notion that Trout and Braun came out of nowhere. They both did what they did sooner than expected - but they both had the pedigree to do it.
That said, other than who is going to close for X since Y blew the save last night, it's these crystal ball questions that frustrate me the most. I analyze numbers and based on what I see and what historically happens based on those numbers, I make my best guess as to what that player will do. This question is asking "what player is most likely to do something the numbers don't indicate he will do?"
Honestly, the question doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless I approach it a little more analytically, and that is to identify players that at least have the skill set to even be able to "come out of nowhere".
So I want a guy with some upside in an area. Is there a guy who has the power upside to do what Jose Bautista did? Here'e one - Jay Bruce. I don't THINK he'll do it, but if he drops the strikeouts and gets zoned in, he can hit 50.
Maybe speed upside -- what happens if Ellsbury stays healthy and goes 20-50? He's ended the year with 1st round value twice already. Why not again?
Batting average upside? What if Kinsler goes 25/25 and hits .290? Guess who's back in the first round?
And for kicks, I'll say Machado, Myers, Profar and Oscar Tavares because they're all young with a strong pedigree.
