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It is interesting just how many first rounds picks are not performing like first rounders. It seems every year, 1/2 of them never live up to thier ADP, the hype, the "expert" opinions, etc.... The current performing top 15 contains some interesting names.

In regards to the "experts", They spend 90% of their time talking/writing about ADP in the preseason of the top 15, maybe top 30. After that you barely ever hear them talking or writing about players after that top 15/30. It amazes me most of us seem to fall into the First round ADP trap year after year. If you took Kemp, Votto, Strasburg, Stanton, Verlander, Trout, Kershaw, Pujols, in the first round you have to be feeling disappointed so far. I think some of these players will crack back into top 30 status by years end, but others will fall out. It does appear that about 50% of the top 15 never come close to that value each year. One thing that obviously affects performance is injury. It's interesting so far, that Pujols, Kershaw, Votto, Stanton, and Kemp all had injury concerns at the end of last year and into spring training.

Using the NFBC rankings is just one way at looking at it all. However if you drafted 10 of the first 15 players currently, you got would have the team to beat.


First number is the current NFBC Performance Rank. The Second number is the Round that number correlates to ADP based on a 15 team league.

Top 15 Draft picks based on ADP

#1 Miguel Cabrera 20 2
#2 Mike Trout 65 5
#3 Ryan Braun 23 2
#4 Robinson Cano 9 1
#5 Matt Kemp 156 3
#6 Andrew McCutche 40 3
#7 Joey Votto 86 6
#8 Albert Pujols 202 14
#9 Carlos Gonzalez 11 1
#10 Prince Fielder 30 2
#11 Troy Tulowitzki 24 2
#12 Giancarlo Stanton 739 49
#13 Justin Verlander 83 5
#14 Stephen Strasburg 157 11
#15 Clayton Kershaw 58 4


First number is the current NFBC Performance Rank. The Second number is the Round that number correlates to ADP based on a 15 team league where these players were drafted usually.

Top 15 Players based on Current NFBC Rank


#1 Justin Upton 1 2
#2 Coco Crisp 2 13
#3 Yu Darvish 3 5
#4 Chris Davis 4 8
#5 Jacoby Ellsbury 5 3
#6 Bryce Harper 6 2
#7 Clay Buchholz 7 19
#8 Matt Harvey 8 9
#9 Robinson Cano 9 1
#10 Dexter Fowler 10 13
#11 Carlos Gonzalez 11 1
#12 David Wright 12 2
#13 Chase Utley 13 8
#14 Adam Wainwright 14 4
#15 Adam Jones 15 2

Now THAT is great stuff, Mike.
Good to see you step down from the PEDSestal and come up with some really good stuff.
Excellent. An Attaboy for you!

Outlaw wrote:It is interesting just how many first rounds picks are not performing like first rounders. It seems every year, 1/2 of them never live up to thier ADP, the hype, the "expert" opinions, etc.... The current performing top 15 contains some interesting names.

In regards to the "experts", They spend 90% of their time talking/writing about ADP in the preseason of the top 15, maybe top 30. After that you barely ever hear them talking or writing about players after that top 15/30. It amazes me most of us seem to fall into the First round ADP trap year after year. If you took Kemp, Votto, Strasburg, Stanton, Verlander, Trout, Kershaw, Pujols, in the first round you have to be feeling disappointed so far. I think some of these players will crack back into top 30 status by years end, but others will fall out. It does appear that about 50% of the top 15 never come close to that value each year. One thing that obviously affects performance is injury. It's interesting so far, that Pujols, Kershaw, Votto, Stanton, and Kemp all had injury concerns at the end of last year and into spring training.

Using the NFBC rankings is just one way at looking at it all. However if you drafted 10 of the first 15 players currently, you got would have the team to beat.


First number is the current NFBC Performance Rank. The Second number is the Round that number correlates to ADP based on a 15 team league.

Top 15 Draft picks based on ADP

#1 Miguel Cabrera 20 2
#2 Mike Trout 65 5
#3 Ryan Braun 23 2
#4 Robinson Cano 9 1
#5 Matt Kemp 156 3
#6 Andrew McCutche 40 3
#7 Joey Votto 86 6
#8 Albert Pujols 202 14
#9 Carlos Gonzalez 11 1
#10 Prince Fielder 30 2
#11 Troy Tulowitzki 24 2
#12 Giancarlo Stanton 739 49
#13 Justin Verlander 83 5
#14 Stephen Strasburg 157 11
#15 Clayton Kershaw 58 4


First number is the current NFBC Performance Rank. The Second number is the Round that number correlates to ADP based on a 15 team league where these players were drafted usually.

Top 15 Players based on Current NFBC Rank


#1 Justin Upton 1 2
#2 Coco Crisp 2 13
#3 Yu Darvish 3 5
#4 Chris Davis 4 8
#5 Jacoby Ellsbury 5 3
#6 Bryce Harper 6 2
#7 Clay Buchholz 7 19
#8 Matt Harvey 8 9
#9 Robinson Cano 9 1
#10 Dexter Fowler 10 13
#11 Carlos Gonzalez 11 1
#12 David Wright 12 2
#13 Chase Utley 13 8
#14 Adam Wainwright 14 4
#15 Adam Jones 15 2

Good stuff. I would do the same analysis with espn ratings which I feel are much better quality. The overall point is well taken. The top 15 in my book always include people that I just don't agree with. Kemp is a perfect example. With his injury and overall volatility of his performance should put him at the 2 nd round IMHO

Very good analysis

Chthroop wrote: I would do the same analysis with espn ratings which I feel are much better quality.

Now that's funny stuff

BK METS wrote:

Chthroop wrote: I would do the same analysis with espn ratings which I feel are much better quality.

Now that's funny stuff

You don't think the espn player rater does a better job of rating players performance than stats player ranking system ??,

The reason I looked at Stats, is because it shows the performance using the NFBC scoring system and compares a player to the league average in each of the respective 5 Cats. Espn, Yahoo, CBS who knows how they do it and they sure are not looking at it the way Stats does.