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First off, before I share my opinions on this topic, I'd like to make clear that I'm not an expert** and don't try to pass myself off as an expert on Roto or ADP or anything else. I'm a writer who likes to stay in practice by writing on topics that interest me. If I wrote about things that everyone agreed upon it would make for pretty dull reading. I don't expect others to share my opinions.

In another thread we've been discussing ADP in regard to one particular league but rather than dwell on that. I'd like to share my views on ADP in general.

Average Draft Position charts can be a useful tool in determining where a player might get drafted based on where others within a similar skill set have drafted him on average. I'd never suggest it's a good idea to have the ADP chart beside you during the draft and look to see who's "next" available when your turn comes around. That kind of paint-by-numbers approach sounds like it would take all the fun and personality out of rotisserie baseball drafts.

Instead I feel that ADP is a tool much like a barometer which indicates what is likely to happen based on the current evidence available. Before even looking at ADP, managers would be well served to scout the player pool and get an idea of which players they like and don't like. It's probably a good idea to rank them; most of us do.

Where ADP charts come into play for me next is by giving me an idea of how long I might be able to wait to take a player I've ranked as one of my targets. I don't care how highly a player is on the ADP chart, if I don't like him I'm not going to draft him (eg. ARod, Adam Dunn, any Rockies Pitcher). This year I had Yu Darvish ranked below Felix Hernandez but the ADP told me to take Yu first and I ended up getting both. Maybe I would have both anyway if I took King Felix first but I'm very happy with the way things turned out.

Rotisserie baseball is at it's best when the baseball gods throw you curveballs and things don't go as planned. Take Chris Davis and Albert Pujols for example. If it were all over after the draft we wouldn't have six months of excitement, anticipation and regret to look forward to each year.

Please feel free to debate the merits of ADP in this thread but I'm not going to use this as a forum to discuss further any comments I've written about any particular league or draft.


**Disclaimer
As proof that I'm no expert:
I drafted Kyle Seager in the 14th this year and was stupid enough to waive him two weeks into the season.
Bartolo Colon was on my team when the draft concluded but I waived him after just one week. Not crazy but regretful.
I had Marco Scutaro on my team in week 1 but after a poor April he was on the waiver wire.
Josh Willingham was my 10th pick.

Nuff said.

my(our) best team(who I have a partner ,who does all the dirty work) has an adp of minus 536. I really dont use adp for anything other than making sure I dont completely over reach for someone.

Rog wrote:my(our) best team(who I have a partner ,who does all the dirty work) has an adp of minus 536. I really dont use adp for anything other than making sure I dont completely over reach for someone.

Hmmmm, I wonder who that could be?

Top 10 in the Online Championship out of over 1100 teams speaks for itself! Keep it going guys.

I have found that the longer I play this game, the less I rely on ADP. I understand the general usefulness of knowing about where players tend to be drafted but, at least for me, it has been more of a hindrance than a help. For instance, there were times when I really liked a guy in the sixth round but, because his ADP was in the eighth round, I waited on him, only to have him taken by someone else before my next pick. Similarly, although less frequently, I occasionally would reconsider a player who I only liked modestly because he had become a so-called value. More often than not, there were good reasons why that player fell and probably should have fallen even further. More recently, I am simply picking who I like best whenever it is my turn to draft. I think I'm getting better, although time will tell on that score. More importantly, now, with my current approach, I am much more likely to have a team with more of "my guys" for better or worse. Also, I do put in a lot of time researching and ranking players and I now figure if I am going to go to such efforts, I may as well rely on my own rankings and not on the average rankings of all drafters - good, bad or otherwise - that picked in earlier leagues (based in part on information that may have grown dated). Although I've been moving in this direction for a few years, it was reinforced by my participation in the first NFBC "slow" draft of the season. There was no ADP - we were making it! I found it liberating. Just my two cents.

Mike