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Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:12 am
by Hells Satans
I was in a number of leagues this year (non-Main Event) where teams purposefully punted HR/RBIs and generally went with a SP/SP/SP start, tried to lock up 65+ pitching points, finish high in BA/R/SB, get to mid-90s, and finish in the money.

I thought this was a really interesting strategy, and, if executed properly, was a really good way to finish in the money (although not really to win the league). It hasn't worked out for those teams in my leagues. I'm curious as to whether people would do this again? What went wrong? Whether they think the margin for error is too low when you punt multiple categories?

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:17 pm
by Quahogs
It looks nice on draft day especially when you pound 3 top 10 starters and pocket 55-60 wins. But then they play the games.

On paper you say to yourself to make it work I CAN'T miss on the closers. So you have to overdraft the the Kimbrels and Chapmans. That puts you at 2 offensive players within the 1st 7 rds. Runs and BA are going to suffer. There are no ways around that.

OK so instead you fade the top closers. Get two joes and spend $$$$ on FAAB closers. You don't need all that money in pocket since you won't be chasing starters and PX. That still may not solve the WINS category because that is the true wildcard.
But if you can pull a 14-14-12(svs)-10W-10K that puts you at 60. But wow you better nail those SP's.

But the bottom line is I just don't think you can get the Runs and batting avg. to dance. You get the 15 SBs thru quantity but the quality R-BA-SB guys are going while you are drafting SP's. 15sb-1hr-1rbi- and say 8run, 8ba =33. Not bad since that score will probably get you double your $. But are you really getting an 8 in Runs ? There's the rub. Of course hindsight is 20-20 but 3 teams that tried this are DEAD LAST in runs.

Forget about how hard it is to keep up with wins. Forget about praying your closers can get you 90 saves. Peripheral stud SPs' and RUNS simply don't go hand in hand.

It's difficult to forecast this strategy being a $ maker.

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:49 pm
by Hells Satans
Awesome, Steve. I had not noticed the runs issue, but I think you nailed it. You can't get 10+ points in runs without drafting the 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup or the very best leadoff hitters on the best teams (Choo, Jackson, Gordon) and those guys are gone when you take SP early. You can't make up for it with Everth Cabrera-types.

The other piece, I think, is that no matter how good the SP are that you draft, you can't guarantee 14/15 points in Ks if you also want to get 12+ in saves. Several teams will punt saves halfway through the season and stream nine pitchers. If you're throwing 6 or 7 SP out there, they will pass you.

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:29 pm
by Quahogs
Yup. Good luck managing 7-2 6-3 into 14W 14k 12sv. I don't think I could do it even drafting 9 pitchers with my 1st 9 picks !

Like I said hindsight is 20-20. Back in March I didn't have the guts to try it. What held me back was my usual "Ahhh F***" moment in May when I find out I'm wrong about 1/2 the players I drafted. When 5 of your 80 run starters you draft in the mid to late teens don't pan out and that's all your 1st five guys are going to get you... well there's just no faab fixing that.

The perfect 2 cat punt strategy really is the Stanard. That's the only way you can nail the 3 categories (pitching) without sacrificing hitting. Goes together like peas and carrots.

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:22 pm
by 751542
i did this strategy in the diamond, in retrospect, i wont do it again. steve, as usual, is correct! the runs category was the biggest fly in the ointment. i would never have thought it would be so tough. i would have cashed with approx 90 points if strasburg didnt have such bad luck. it is feasible in a very competitive league BUT it has to work out perfectly :(

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 4:51 am
by TOXIC ASSETS
I punted steals, runs, rbis, avg, wins, era, whip this year. Not a way to win $$$. Punting just two categories might be a better bet 8-)

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:39 am
by rockitsauce
I love these discussions. Thanks for posting Bob. As you & Steve both know the Contract League is a different nut to crack, especially if your goal is manager of the year. A few teams annually try the punt power strategy and it seems to be a viable method to cash. This year Shawn employed the PPS and unfortunately for him he fell far short in the category Steve mentioned - RUNS. CC ended up dead last and I mean 300 runs behind 14th place last....whereas Dave Shovein managed to finish middle of the pack there. I bring up Dave because he was 2013 MOY. He destroyed evryone in SB and finished middle of the pack in most pitching cat's. He was weak in HR/RBI, but nowhere near as bad as CC's team was in those cat's (not to pick on Shawn, just as a comparison since they both went PPS).

Anyways, Congrats Dave!

Congrats to Glenn X for coming in 1st, KJ 2nd, and BK Mets (Alan G) 3rd. Great job, strong work 8-)

Steve, btw I did try the punt strategy we talked about back in Vegas in a $125 satellite, so the stakes were far lower, but I was still interested to see how punting Saves would pan out. Well, it didn't work out and I have one player to blame - Kelvin Herrera ! I drafted him very late thinking maybe he would end up closer and if I could get another closer in FA I could finish in 12th place in Saves instead of dead last. And Herrera GOT A SAVE that 1st wk of the season so that got my hopes up....The plan may've worked - I won both Valverde & Gregg in FA, but as we know now Papa Grande would not last. But what if he did? It certainly gives me pause :ugeek: .

I really think I probably should've just stayed with the plan of PUNTING SAVES. Never should've drafted Herrera. Never should've spent a dollar on a closer. As you spoke of then, take advantage of not using 2-3 prime draft slots on closers by getting more SP & hitting. When you talk with Steve (at least me) you feel like you've ascended some mountain in the Andes and have gained audience with THE GURU ! He is very modest and would laugh at my description of Steve "Phil Jackson" Jupinka, but there is no denying he is a sharp dude :D

Congrats to all the winners....and to all my fellow LOSERS aka Cubs fans :twisted: better luck next year !

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:32 am
by Rog
I have a slow draft where i punted saves (not intentionally) drafted madsen and rondon as my closers.
finished with 0 saves but the interesting thing is I ended up with 106 league points
which had me finishing in 5th place but makes me wonder if I would of used my 15and 16th pick on better picks if I could of pulled it off ? I finished 55 pts hitting and 52 pts pitching

1 117
2 115.5
3 110.5
4 109.5
5 106

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:33 pm
by Coots
I punted Saves in an online league this year.. I was lucky enough that everything fell my way and I won the league so it can be done. It was very difficult though and wouldn't do it again...

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:38 pm
by Likewhat17
rockitsauce wrote:
Anyways, Congrats Dave!

Congrats to Glenn X for coming in 1st, KJ 2nd, and BK Mets (Alan G) 3rd. Great job, strong work 8-)

Thanks David!

It was obviously a plan that was constructed well in advance of draft day to punt power in that league, as I employed a similar strategy and came up just short of MOY honors last year. As the draft unfolded however, and we realized that there were two or three other teams that were employing the same strategy, we decided to shift our focus slightly. We probably gave back a little bit in pitching by doing so, but wanted to make sure we eked out a few points in HR and RBI against the teams also punting those cats, rather than finishing at the bottom.

Luckily for us, it ended up working out. Was certainly a crazy battle though as with four days left in the season there were four teams separated by just 2.5 league points.

And it was really Shawn's strategy that I think may have been the best idea in theory, he just wasn't fortunate to get the high batting average that he needed to take it down.

Now that the cat is out of the bag though, and several others are undoubtedly going to try the same thing next year, I'll spend the next few months crafting a new strategy on how to succeed in that format next year :D

Re: Punting Power Strategy

Posted: Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:12 am
by joshguy
Rog wrote:I have a slow draft where i punted saves (not intentionally) drafted madsen and rondon as my closers.
finished with 0 saves but the interesting thing is I ended up with 106 league points
which had me finishing in 5th place but makes me wonder if I would of used my 15and 16th pick on better picks if I could of pulled it off ? I finished 55 pts hitting and 52 pts pitching

1 117
2 115.5
3 110.5
4 109.5
5 106
without seeing your league specifics, you would have been better off probably had madson and rondon been the closers. I would guess 70 saves would be about 8-10 pts, not to mention the probably uptick in era and whip. K's and wins would suffer but at least you would have the option of going down a closer or two as needed to massage the categories as the season wore on.