NFBC Message Boards

I know many owners do not like to do this, but I believe there are some who do. If anyone has some insights,strategies, would be interesting offseason discussion.

For example, I have learned that there has been a shift in pitching and I believe if you don't hit on 2 early aces by 7 round, you will have a difficult time.

Where I struggle is some young players have excellent econd or third year and others...heyward...don't....how do you predict this? K rates?

Here are a few concepts I'm embracing going forward: treat health as a skill; don't pay for a career year; don't punt any categories; never pay for a rookie closer; keep up with international prospects. There are plenty of others but let's see if others are sharing

Some things I'm thinking about going forward are: (1) placing a greater emphasis on youth in this supposedly PED free era; (2) while I understand that many adhere to the two highly-ranked starters approach, and I may follow it when circumstances warrant it, I'm more interested this coming year in nailing a deeper starting rotation (thus, while I probably will not draft two starters in the first four or five rounds, I may look to grab five starters in the first 12 rounds); (3) despite best intentions, I still think I spend a disproportionate amount of my preparation on the beginning of the draft and not enough time on the back end, and I plan to change that this year; (4) while I think I am getting better at FAAB, this is an area of my game that still needs improvement); (5) I am resolved to place less emphasis on chasing wins while putting my ratios at risk - too often this year I started a risky two-start pitcher over a better, safer one-start pitcher; (6) along the same lines, I am contemplating making greater use of a dominant set-up man (like Trevor Rosenthal this past year) as opposed to a less-skilled starter with a questionable matchup (better for ratios, probably no worse in Ks); and (7) placing less reliance on one-category base stealers (in other words, I want to find base stealers with some pop as opposed to perhaps the stronger base stealers that have no power; e.g., draft Coco Crisp before Ben Revere this past season).

Not sure how successful I'll be implementing these strategies, or how much my strategies may change by the time I start drafting for 2014, but these are my current thoughts and plans at this time.

Mike

fwicker wrote:Here are a few concepts I'm embracing going forward: treat health as a skill; don't pay for a career year; don't punt any categories; never pay for a rookie closer; keep up with international prospects. There are plenty of others but let's see if others are sharing

Excellent advice in here IMO..

poopytooth wrote:I know many owners do not like to do this, but I believe there are some who do. If anyone has some insights,strategies, would be interesting offseason discussion.

For example, I have learned that there has been a shift in pitching and I believe if you don't hit on 2 early aces by 7 round, you will have a difficult time.

Where I struggle is some young players have excellent econd or third year and others...heyward...don't....how do you predict this? K rates?

I find Mike Lins slow draft team then cross those players off my to draft list...

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”

An adage we’ve all heard, an adage many live their life by, an adage that I’ve used to manage my teams.
Well, it’s taken me 6 years , but it doesn’t work in the NFBC.

In the past, I’ve had 3 different Main Event teams that were in first place as late as Aug 30th. Each time I have failed to finish in the money. Almost always because I was under the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” allusion.

Oh sure, I tried to “fix” my teams in Sept while I was being passed , but it was far too late. What I should have been doing is “fixing” my teams in June, July and August while I was riding high in first place. But I thought my teams weren’t “broken” and I sat idle.

And so last October after having been dropped from first place entering Sept, to finishing fifth and falling fast at season’s end, I decided on a new phrase….

“It might not be broke, but it can be better”

Think about it. Do you think any of the 9 Main Event Champions would say they had a Perfect Team?
Good? Certainly
Great? Yes
Perfect? I doubt it.

So with that in mind, I tried to “fix” my team every Sunday. Sometimes it worked, other times not so much.

This year my team finished 241st Overall, I think that is my second (maybe 3rd) worse career finish, yet I am currently feeling like I’ve never had a better season.

My team started horribly from a combination of injuries, “under-performance”, and a poor draft during which I tried to place square players into round holes.

On Monday July 22nd my team was in last place in my league with about 48 points and I was 407th in the Overall. Yet I knew my team was getting better. I had been making moves and studying the standings to see where I could improve. I was motivated to finish in the top half of my league (I didn’t, 9th), I was motivated to beat a particular owner in my league (I did not), and I was motivated to get into the top 200 of the Overall (I didn’t, 241), but I know my team had a great second half and I am very happy with where I finished.

I know what I’m writing here is no great revelation to the top players in the NFBC, in fact I’m guessing that they have learned this lesson long ago and it is one of the reasons that they are already great. But for me it’s been a long time coming and I’m looking forward to next season already.

"It might not be broke, but it can be better"

Bronx Yankees wrote:(3) despite best intentions, I still think I spend a disproportionate amount of my preparation on the beginning of the draft and not enough time on the back end, and I plan to change that this year; (

Mike

Great thread.

I thought the same on #3, but I went back and looked at all of my leagues (7) and it appears that pretty much after round 20, 80-90% or more of these players get dropped. There are a few diamonds in those rounds, but not sure they are evident come draft time regardless of the amount of prep time. Most of them are fortunate gets.

My take is to have a plan for a few mid-round guys. I think there is some value to gain in the mid-rounds. I agree on drafting health early. Hard to compete if you lose picks at the top.

Most of all, FAAB hard every week. This game is won more on the weekly pickups than it is with the drafts (but the draft is by far the fun part!).

ReedBTLines wrote:

Bronx Yankees wrote:(3) despite best intentions, I still think I spend a disproportionate amount of my preparation on the beginning of the draft and not enough time on the back end, and I plan to change that this year; (

Mike

Great thread.

I thought the same on #3, but I went back and looked at all of my leagues (7) and it appears that pretty much after round 20, 80-90% or more of these players get dropped. There are a few diamonds in those rounds, but not sure they are evident come draft time regardless of the amount of prep time. Most of them are fortunate gets.

My take is to have a plan for a few mid-round guys. I think there is some value to gain in the mid-rounds. I agree on drafting health early. Hard to compete if you lose picks at the top.

Most of all, FAAB hard every week. This game is won more on the weekly pickups than it is with the drafts (but the draft is by far the fun part!).

FWIW, I spend the overwhelming majority of my prep time on rounds 11-20. The first thing I do is determine who is going in the later rounds that I feel is being severely undervalued. Then I make it a point to draft them slightly earlier than they usually go (but not so high as to destroy the "value"). These are they key players in my drafts. I generally determine who I am going to draft early by figuring who (and when) I'm going to draft late. Basically backwards drafting.

Sometimes it works (Cobb, Castro, Dom Brown, Parra). Sometimes it doesn't (Jon Jay, Jamie Garcia).

I don't have one set strategy for snake drafts. I am more likely looking for value and red flagging players I DONT like. I do like to have a top closer. Most of my teams had Kimbrel on them, this year. Even though he is a high draft pick, he is worth not having to worry about that category all season. I also like waiting on outfielders.. try to fill my position players first. That's about all I can share, although looking at my main event teams this year, you might not want to take my advice

Quahogs wrote:

poopytooth wrote:I know many owners do not like to do this, but I believe there are some who do. If anyone has some insights,strategies, would be interesting offseason discussion.

For example, I have learned that there has been a shift in pitching and I believe if you don't hit on 2 early aces by 7 round, you will have a difficult time.

Where I struggle is some young players have excellent econd or third year and others...heyward...don't....how do you predict this? K rates?

I find Mike Lins slow draft team then cross those players off my to draft list...

lol
is that all there is to it?

I learned repeatedly a closer or set up guy may get 3 k's in a week and a back end starter may get 3 a start. So if the starter has 2 starts, what you get in extra k's, you lose in whip and era.

I've never won a league by totally punting a category. Strategically aiming for a mid-table finish in a certain category? That's fine. Tanking one in order to strengthen all the others? Mistake IMO. Too many categories relate to each other (i.e. Saves --> ERA+WHIP, Wins --> Ks, HRs --> RBIs) If you tank one, you are severely limiting yourseslf in atleast one other, sometimes two, and you're limiting your max potential. The guy in my league who finished second 0.5 pts back of me did kick Wins and Ks to the curb for a stacked lineup and he nearly pulled it out, so it can be done, but I just think it limits your possibilities. In the final week, it was mine to lose (and nearly did), but I was active in more categories for potential gains in the final weekend. With a week to go I coulda finished anywhere from 99-107 (ended up with 102.5), and he coulda finished anywhere from 98-103 (finished 102). His best chance was me collapsing. The guy who punted SB in my league finished 13th when a few of his power bats underachieved, and the two guys who punted saves and finished 7th and 10th.