NFBC Message Boards

C'mon Yankees fans, let's hear from ya. What do you think of your beloved Yankees giving Jacoby Ellsbury -- an injury-prone 30-year-old -- a seven-year, $153 million contract? Was it the right move or will this contract bite them in the butt when he's 35, 36, 37? From a fantasy perspective, does this raise Ellsbury's value or do nothing at all for it? In our first 7 NFBC Draft Champions Leagues, his ADP was 15.7 as he went anywhere from 8th overall to 24th. Where will he go now?

And let's also hear from ya about:

The Tigers unloading Doug Fister to Washington for very little. Fister in the NL seems like an improved value, doesn't he?

Joe Nathan signing with Detroit for two years and $20 million. Well, that's one way to settle the closer's job there.

Dexter Fowler going to Houston for very little, unless you think Jordan Lyles will be a star in Coors Field. Is this the end of Fowler's fantasy value or will this wake him up?

Jim Johnson headed to Oakland to close, with Luke Gregorson as the perfect setup man. Seems like the Orioles didn't value Johnson, but the A's are really building a solid relief corps.

Marlins sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia for 3 years, $21 million.

Twins sign Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. That won't increase the fantasy value of either pitcher, will it?

Paul Konerko is back with the White Sox for one year to possibly steal playing time from Jose Abreu. The Cuban slugger has been a hot pickup in early fantasy drafts, but now what??

Justin Morneau to the Rockies for two years, $13 million. Is there anything left there? AJ Pierzynski to Boston for one year. Not a bad pickup to replace Saltalamacchia.

Who has some opinions on these moves? Let's hear one at a time if you have some thoughts. Trust me, it's cold here in Wisconsin, so a little Hot Stove League will do us all good. Thanks all.

Greg, five 'values' in one post. Really?
You've gotta get away from radio for a bit!

Nathan in Detroit is a nice closer option if the old man can stay healthy.

Fister's value should be about the same; he won't suddenly become a 200+ K guy. Maybe his ERA goes down a bit, but I would be surprised to see him become a sub-3.00 ERA guy.

Ellsbury needs more power, like 20 HR and 75ish RBI, to become 1st round material in my opinion.

The rest of those guys are role-player type material and shouldn't see big changes in value based on their new places.

Yankees will regret Ellsbury signing NLT year 3 if not sooner. Hes 30 and has been injury prone his entire career. Bad signing.

Outlaw wrote:Yankees will regret Ellsbury signing NLT year 3 if not sooner. Hes 30 and has been injury prone his entire career. Bad signing.

Disagree...

He's accident prone, not chronically injury prone

Collided with Beltre and cracked 4 ribs
Had Reid Brignac fall on him and injure his shoulder
Fouled a ball off his foot

I don't think three flukes is a harbinger of another injury

This brings Ellsbury further up in my estimation.
I agree with Todd in that Ellsbury has been more misfortunate than prone.
What is frustrating more than the injury itself is his recovery time. Even that can be excused with misdiagnosis by team doctors.
Ellsbury becomes a top flight choice for me and I think he'll be taken first Overall in a few drafts.

WAIT>1st overall before trout and cabrera? please sign me up for those leagues immediately.

FYI.

2013 Average Homerun and Flyball Distance:

Elvis Andrus: 269.42
Jacoby Ellsbury: 268.16

ikenbaseball wrote:WAIT>1st overall before trout and cabrera? please sign me up for those leagues immediately.

FYI.

2013 Average Homerun and Flyball Distance:

Elvis Andrus: 269.42
Jacoby Ellsbury: 268.16

Numerish.
Ellsbury has hit more homers in one season than 90% of current players.
There.

I like Ellsbury for the Yankees and I think he will help them in his first few years. I am just concerned that they are just acquiring a glorified player they already have (Brett Gardner). If they don't end up signing Cano, I don't like this signing . If they do sign Cano, I think its a good move. I love the McCann signing for the Yankees though. I would still be worried about the pitching staff.

Hoping the Mets do something. Haha...,,,, no seriously. If the Mets can somehow pull it off, Granderson is within their budget and would be a good fit. He's a good guy with ties to New York already and will fit in well batting behind Wright. I would still like to see the Mets trade for a bigger outfield bat, but am not counting on it.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:C'mon Yankees fans, let's hear from ya. What do you think of your beloved Yankees giving Jacoby Ellsbury -- an injury-prone 30-year-old -- a seven-year, $153 million contract? Was it the right move or will this contract bite them in the butt when he's 35, 36, 37? From a fantasy perspective, does this raise Ellsbury's value or do nothing at all for it?

I would like to say Ellsbury will go 30/30 in 2014 but you'll tell me that's statistically impossible.

It would be darn fun to watch though. Sox fans would go nuts. Yankee fans would gloat (even more, I mean).


Sincerely,
An Idiot

Greg Ambrosius wrote: Yankees giving Jacoby Ellsbury -- an injury-prone 30-year-old -- a seven-year, $153 million contract?

Ellsbury climbs like a scared cat in the ADP. And will be a bust. Those "bad luck" injuries DO make him fragile and injury prone. I ran into my fat cousin Edna going for that last piece of pecan pie and only broke one rib. As I said in another post, Ellsbury will be as valuable as another Boston import...not Ruth...Youk.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:The Tigers unloading Doug Fister to Washington for very little. Fister in the NL seems like an improved value, doesn't he?

Agree with a previous poster. Fister will not be a K-help. Keeps his value as back-end of the rotation filler.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Joe Nathan signing with Detroit for two years and $20 million. Well, that's one way to settle the closer's job there.

So who exactly did Benoit piss off? 2.01 ERA, 21 saves and a 73/22 K/BB ratio over 67 innings this year. Probably could have had him for millions less.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Dexter Fowler going to Houston for very little, unless you think Jordan Lyles will be a star in Coors Field. Is this the end of Fowler's fantasy value or will this wake him up?

And since he went so cheap, why didn't the Braves get him last year? Since power never really showed up, no real damage there and he probably won't have to fight for at bats as much as he did with Colorado trying out Moe, Larry, Curly, and Shemp. I am probably in the minority, but I say value goes up depending on the spot they end up batting him in.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Jim Johnson headed to Oakland to close, with Luke Gregorson as the perfect setup man. Seems like the Orioles didn't value Johnson, but the A's are really building a solid relief corps.

No change in Johnson's value. Smoke and mirrors will work in Oakland, too.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Marlins sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia for 3 years, $21 million.

Sunny Florida...a place where blue-haired old ladies and catchers with decent power go to die. Not saying it wasn't a nice pick up for the Marlins, but fantasy wise, he is dead to me.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Twins sign Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. That won't increase the fantasy value of either pitcher, will it?

Not for Nolasco, but I think the move for Hughes means fewer HR...wins are mercurial, but otherwise worth a flyer definitely, which he wasn't in NY anymore.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Paul Konerko is back with the White Sox for one year to possibly steal playing time from Jose Abreu. The Cuban slugger has been a hot pickup in early fantasy drafts, but now what??

Less may be more at this time for Konerko. $2.5 million may not be too much for quality AB against LHers. I think it hurts Dunn more than Abreu.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Justin Morneau to the Rockies for two years, $13 million. Is there anything left there?

Not that I think Morneau will hit 30 again, but I think this makes him a nice CM for fantasy purposes. BA up a bit, but Colorado plays a lot of people, so 550 AB may be hard to come by.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:AJ Pierzynski to Boston for one year. Not a bad pickup to replace Saltalamacchia.

Who will pay him for the year he becomes back-up quality? If Ross is healthy, could be a nice one-two punch with neither getting 500 AB.

ToddZ wrote:

Outlaw wrote:Yankees will regret Ellsbury signing NLT year 3 if not sooner. Hes 30 and has been injury prone his entire career. Bad signing.

Disagree...

He's accident prone, not chronically injury prone

Collided with Beltre and cracked 4 ribs
Had Reid Brignac fall on him and injure his shoulder
Fouled a ball off his foot

I don't think three flukes is a harbinger of another injury

Semantics about his injuries, bottom line is, he has them. And as far as his big HR year (2011), the season before Greenies were outlawed and PEDS testing started in earnest. I believe Brady Anderson had one power year too and he later admitted he was on Roids when he had it. Ellsbury Season HR totals in majors, 3, 9, 8, 0, 32, 4 and 9. RBI totals, 18, 47, 60, 5, 105, 26, 53. Ellsbury will probably have a good year or two over the next 3-4 years, the question is which years. He is more like Brett Gardner than a Mike Trout.

As a Yankee fan, this signing would have been OK at 4 years/ 60 million. At 7/155 million its one big waste of money.

Outlaw wrote:Semantics about his injuries, bottom line is, he has them.

It's more than semantics. Bottom line is he HAD them -- question is goes that make him more vulnerable or susceptible to future injuries? I don't believe it does.

The rest -- performance, why or why not, -- isn't my fight. I'm just refuting the injury prone claim.

ToddZ wrote:

Outlaw wrote:Semantics about his injuries, bottom line is, he has them.

It's more than semantics. Bottom line is he HAD them -- question is goes that make him more vulnerable or susceptible to future injuries? I don't believe it does.

The rest -- performance, why or why not, -- isn't my fight. I'm just refuting the injury prone claim.

Fair enough...the big question for all fantasy players every year, who gets injured or who is injury prone...the list is endless every year on the top players... Kemp, Tulo, Cargo, Hanley, Reyes, Stanton, Wright, etc....

I think Mets fans are so hungry for a player, any player, that they'll regard any signing as a victory.
Curtis Granderson is 32.
His speed has slowed.
His batting average has wilted to the .230's and .220's. Shifts have killed him along with trying to pull everything to take advantage of Yankee Stadium fences.
He's from another New York team and has character, but how much is character worth?
Most likely, any club who signs him will be paying for his past, not his future.
He really is not a good fit for the Mets and that field. Choo would be the better fit for them all the way around. Loves hitting gaps, great on base percentage. Home runs are not a necessary part of his game. A lineup jump starter.
If signing with the Mets, Granderson is a signing appeasement. Not somebody to make a team a winner.

Would be a typical Met signing, day late ad a dollar short!

And those who took Mujica in early drafts, hoping for Saves, are now saying, "Aw Crap!"

DOUGHBOYS wrote:And those who took Mujica in early drafts, hoping for Saves, are now saying, "Aw Crap!"

With Uehara's health history and the way they banged on that rental car last season, I'm saying the opposite. With so many established guys on the market, Mujica wasn't going to be signed to close -- but this is a good spot to be Avis/Burger King/Pepsi.

ToddZ wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote:And those who took Mujica in early drafts, hoping for Saves, are now saying, "Aw Crap!"

With Uehara's health history and the way they banged on that rental car last season, I'm saying the opposite. With so many established guys on the market, Mujica wasn't going to be signed to close -- but this is a good spot to be Avis/Burger King/Pepsi.

Great organization, great team.
Mujica had it relatively soft hiding in Miami before Closing for St. Louis. His failings the last month could have been for a multitude of reasons. What it meant to me was that he needed another 'soft landing'. Boston is not a soft landing.
The league, division, and hitters will be tougher than ever faced.
If betting whether Mujica will fail as a set up guy or get Save Ops and be beneficial in those save ops, I'd side with the former.

With Ellsbury I think the Yankees are hoping (paying) for a Johnny Damon redux. Tell (teach) him to pull and get 20-25 hr. Which brings up the Mets and Granderson. Pulling the ball helped him in the Bronx, but that's not going to help him much in Flushing. And all those K's. Seems like a bad fit for the money it'll take to get him. I agree that Choo would be a better fit, but they can't afford him.

DOUGHBOYS wrote: Great organization, great team.
Mujica had it relatively soft hiding in Miami before Closing for St. Louis. His failings the last month could have been for a multitude of reasons. What it meant to me was that he needed another 'soft landing'. Boston is not a soft landing.
The league, division, and hitters will be tougher than ever faced.
If betting whether Mujica will fail as a set up guy or get Save Ops and be beneficial in those save ops, I'd side with the former.

Maybe in the Feb installment of the NFBC Primer we can debate the benefits of a soft landing place --- and this time I'll give you the last word

ToddZ wrote:

DOUGHBOYS wrote: Great organization, great team.
Mujica had it relatively soft hiding in Miami before Closing for St. Louis. His failings the last month could have been for a multitude of reasons. What it meant to me was that he needed another 'soft landing'. Boston is not a soft landing.
The league, division, and hitters will be tougher than ever faced.
If betting whether Mujica will fail as a set up guy or get Save Ops and be beneficial in those save ops, I'd side with the former.

Maybe in the Feb installment of the NFBC Primer we can debate the benefits of a soft landing place --- and this time I'll give you the last word

Ha! You got TWO last words

Now we have the Seattle Mariners signing Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract. How does moving from Yankee Stadium to Seattle hurt Cano's fantasy value? Does he drop out of the Top 10? Out of the first round? C'mon, inquiring minds want to know.

Curtis Granderson signs with the New York Mets: 4 years, $60 million. Going from Yankee Stadium to this park can't help Granderson's fantasy value, that's for sure.

What's with all of these Yankees leaving the Bronx??

First, value schmalue.
Second, Cano never changed his swing for Yankee Stadium.
He'll be the same hitter in Seattle as in New York. His homers may lower from some of the 'gift' homers, but not much.
He hit 16 on the road last year, only 11 in Yankee Stadium.
He will miss the buzz. He will miss the attention. And fantasy-wise, he will miss having great hitters through an entire lineup.
He goes from being one of many pirahna's in a lineup to a gold fish in a bowl.

Will it drop his adp?
There is a lot to be said for being surrounded by great hitters. Cano, as of now, knows that Miller will lead off and Seager will be somewhere around him in the lineup. The rest is unknown.
Cano will take a little drop. But very small. Two or three slots, maybe. Still a mid-first round choice most of the time.
He is still the best 2b in the game. And positionality means a lot to some drafters.

The signing is huge for the Mariners. Players shy away from going to markets like Seattle, Colorado, and Kansas City. Money is not made at those places and neither are winners. This signing alone can trigger more players to sign with the Mariners. Not just big free agents, but the smaller fish too.