NFBC Message Boards

It was good to go home at lunch and see The Baseball Forecaster waiting for me in the mail. Better yet was seeing Mike Trout on the cover!! Nice choice guys. Kudos to Ron Shandler, the NFBC's Ray Murphy, Brent Hershey and the entire BaseballHQ.com team for a job well done.

And kudos to Ron on the intro story on his projections for Mike Trout. It was a good read on a lesson learned.

I thought it was interesting that BaseballHQ.com actually lowered Trout's projections as the off-season went on:

Baseball Forecaster projection: .286-25-78-41 with 104 runs
March 1st update: .286-22-80-32 with 106 runs
Opening Day update: .286-21-76-30 with 101 runs

Of course, he went on to hit .323-27-97-33 with 109 runs.

So what does the Forecaster predict for this year? Trout: .302-25-91-35 with 110 runs.

Anyway, order your Forecaster today. It's a great read that will get you through the cold, winter months, I promise you that.

Can't wait for someone to post Schandler's "bust" for 2014.

Does anyone really read the forecaster anymore??

CASS wrote:Does anyone really read the forecaster anymore??

Absolutely, the content is second to none.

CASS wrote:Does anyone really read the forecaster anymore??

Me too...an unabashed Shandlerite.

Maybe I need to get a life....

Edwards Kings wrote:

CASS wrote:Does anyone really read the forecaster anymore??

Me too...an unabashed Shandlerite.

Maybe I need to get a life....

Or maybe abash yourself and try a new free-wheeling approach.

Warning -- they've lowered their standards and are letting outsiders write for them now

Would be nice to be able to order one given their website is a glitchy disaster when it comes to checking out. Just can't do it and never anyone there for phone support. Kudos to Mr. Shandler and company. Looking forward to the day that a company in this industry understands, embraces, and delivers on service to its clientele. And please spare me the feedback. I don't even want to hear it...

ToddZ wrote:Warning -- they've lowered their standards and are letting outsiders write for them now

Hey Todd,
Then maybe you could send me an autographed copy then so I can at least read it this year. Message or email me. I'm serious. Thanks.

Baseball Furies wrote:Would be nice to be able to order one given their website is a glitchy disaster when it comes to checking out. Just can't do it and never anyone there for phone support.

And when you do get ahold of someone you'll wish you hadn't. After talking to their "customer support" once 3-4 years ago over an order screw-up - which they acknowledged - but for which they refused a simple request to partially fix it, I haven't spent a dime with them since. Schandler sucks. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

KJ Duke wrote:

Baseball Furies wrote:Would be nice to be able to order one given their website is a glitchy disaster when it comes to checking out. Just can't do it and never anyone there for phone support.

And when you do get ahold of someone you'll wish you hadn't. After talking to their "customer support" once 3-4 years ago over an order screw-up - which they acknowledged - but for which they refused a simple request to partially fix it, I haven't spent a dime with them since. Schandler sucks. That's my opinion and I'm sticking with it.

Mikey, KJ, I can't speak of the customer service issues you two have dealt with, I've never had any issues in that regard. However, I can say that in my opinion it's worth the effort to get your copy of the Forecaster. I've enjoyed the publication since I picked up my first copy in 2010 and can no longer imagine starting a baseball off-season prep without the enjoyable read. As others have stated, the content is unmatched. And though I may not agree with all the prognostications, each one gives me something to think about.

I agree with X. I consider the book food for thought.

Baseball Furies wrote:Would be nice to be able to order one given their website is a glitchy disaster when it comes to checking out. Just can't do it and never anyone there for phone support. Kudos to Mr. Shandler and company. Looking forward to the day that a company in this industry understands, embraces, and delivers on service to its clientele. And please spare me the feedback. I don't even want to hear it...

Guys, Ray Murphy has been playing in the NFBC since Day 1 and he's as much involved in the Baseball Forecaster these days as Ron is. He's also a great NFBC player. I guarantee that if you contact Ray he will get back to you and I'm sure Mikey he will even give you the best customer service experience you've ever had. Contact Ray at this email and I'm sure he finds a way to get a copy in the mail to you ASAP: ramurphy@usatoday.com

I understand why Ron is a lightening rod in our industry, but at the end of the day the Baseball Forecaster is exactly what we all want to get the fantasy baseball season going during the cold, winter days of December and January. You don't have to agree with the Forecaster's projections, but the data is there for every single player and the notes get you thinking about the upside and downside of every player. From there you adjust your rankings. I used to do these projections in December, so I know how wrong you can look in print a few weeks later. I tip my hat to Ron, Ray and all of the guys who put the Forecaster to press by mid-November because it's a thankless task, but one most of us in the industry still enjoy.

Contact Ray if you can't order it online and he will get you a copy in the mail. Enjoy.

How accurate have the forecasts been? Any data available? Relative to other forecasters? Sleeper success? Success in avoiding busts?

Roger Dorn wrote:How accurate have the forecasts been? Any data available? Relative to other forecasters? Sleeper success? Success in avoiding busts?

These have been done, though not nearly enough and also not in a way that has been valuable for fantasy purposes. At least not to my knowledge. Sometimes a study will just compare wOBA or something which is useful at telling us which projections are accurate in assessing real value but not fantasy value. When you do see a breakdown into individual stats, the counting stats just end up being a measure of playing time. Bill James always falls into this trap in his annual. He'll say, "Hey, we really got this guy wrong. We projected 26 home runs and he only hit one!" Of course the guy only had 20 at bats.

For my purposes, I don't care how accurate the playing time is because when I pilfer from another projection system, I'm turning a counting stat into a rate stat, say HR/AB, and then converting that into more reliable playing time projections.

One reason they aren't done enough is that most analysis sites have their own projections. They'd rather claim they have deadly accurate projections than prove they are only good at projecting one or two stats. The systems all have different strengths and weaknesses and it's useful to know what they are. I've done some studies and use different models for different thing but alas I cannot share those results.

I want to add that another problem with studies comparing projections is that they don't adjust for league average. If I project ERA and my average is 4.20, while yours (for the same players) is 4.01, and then the league average is 4.01, yours are going to look better than mine. But if you lower all my ERAs by .19 I may actually be .15 closer on the average pitcher which is huge. The value is how the pitchers project in relation to other pitchers in the same set of projections, not in getting the league average correct.

"One reason they aren't done enough is that most analysis sites have their own projections. They'd rather claim they have deadly accurate projections than prove they are only good at projecting one or two stats. The systems all have different strengths and weaknesses and it's useful to know what they are. I've done some studies and use different models for different thing but alas I cannot share those results."

Brian..............how much money have u won from these results?

You can always buy it on amazon, probably save yourself some money, too.

lschechter wrote:You can always buy it on amazon, probably save yourself some money, too.

Great idea! Thanks.