NFBC Message Boards

I want to let everyone know that I've written a book, called "Winning Fantasy Baseball -- Secret Strategies of a Nine-Time National Champion."

It is now available for pre-order on Amazon and Barnes and Noble, and will be released on January 7th. It will be in book stores everywhere in the US and Canada, and will also be available as an e-book.

It covers all formats of play--draft, auction, keeper, etc.--and is designed for all levels from beginner to expert. More information, as well as advance reviews, are at www.winningfantasybaseballthebook.com

Larry:

I made sure I visited Amazon today to place my order! The heck with ADP lists of the Shandler Forecaster,
it is your book that was tops on the list. Will you be making arrangements to sign these books at a live NFBC event
this year? If so, will it be in New York or Las Vegas?

Now that the book is complete, maybe you can get back to the stand up comedy! Looking forward to the read.
Hope that flash in the pan Mike Massotto reads this, it sure couldn't hurt his game.

Hi Sack,

Thanks. I'll be in NYC for NFBC 1st weekend and Vegas 2nd weekend. I haven't been to Vegas for the NFBC or NFFC in many, many years.

I'll be happy to sign a book, but you'll have a hard time reading my chicken scratch. I love ADP lists, they're very helpful. I mention them in the Snake Draft chapter (where I use the NFBC as an example).

I should clarify, though...accurate ADP lists, not ones that are months outdated or based on a bunch of mock drafts that were mostly autopicks.

Amazon released the book early.

If you get 1-2 day shipping from Amazon, you can have it by Christmas.

Or, for just $25,000, I'll dress up like Santa and deliver it to your door (with Greg and Tom dressed like Reindeer).

Ordered the book a few weeks ago and I'm planning on checking it out over the holidays. I enjoy reading about fantasy baseball strategy and hope to learn a thing or two (or fifty). Best of luck with the book.

Mike

Larry, I ordered my book from Amazon in time for Christmas delivery. Haven't had a chance to get through all 360 pages, but there's definitely something for everyone in here! Good luck and thanks for putting this together.

just ordered mine today. hope to be reading it by new years.

In chapter 5...really enjoying it so far!

OK I'm halfway through the 3rd chapter. What I've learned. Projected player stats and values mean the least to winning a league. What's most important is in draft planning and getting value. Of course this is based on the least important item player stats and values??? Granted I have more chapters to go. Also I'm not real smart. But still...............

Thanks Bronx, King of Queens, 76erFan, Poopytooth...

Walla Walla -- not sure where you got that idea...did you misunderstand when it says "doubt I’ve ever won a league primarily
because I had a better set of player dollar values than everyone else..."?

I say repeatedly it's all about value. Getting as much value is the #1 important thing.

The books in the book stores now. E-book should be available any day now.

lschechter wrote:I say repeatedly it's all about value. Getting as much value is the #1 important thing.

Someday, we will have to talk

lschechter wrote:Thanks Bronx, King of Queens, 76erFan, Poopytooth...

Walla Walla -- not sure where you got that idea...did you misunderstand when it says "doubt I’ve ever won a league primarily
because I had a better set of player dollar values than everyone else..."?

I say repeatedly it's all about value. Getting as much value is the #1 important thing.

The books in the book stores now. E-book should be available any day now.

I guess when someone says they doubt I've ever won a league primarily because of a better set of values I take them at their word. But than to say value is the baseline I have to ask based on what?

I think what he's saying is that it's very difficult to have a set of projections that are better than any other set of projections. The idea is to have a consensus of these projections and draft guys are dropping in the draft below these consensus numbers. Guys who drop into the value area are usually coming off a down year and people are scared to take them where they should go, so they drop 2-3 rounds lower, and walla, there's your value pick.

I haven't read the book. So I may be talking out of turn or putting my foot in my mouth, but I'll take the risk.
I've chewed on worse.
You say it is 'all about value'. That sentence is just so wrong to me. But, I'll digress.

John has a point. What is the 'value' based on? ADP? Your own evaluations? Projections? Tiers?
I'm sure you've covered these in your book.
Let's try a couple of scenarios.
If anything, it'll make for good reading on these Boards...

Let's take some brothers in name. Ryan Zimmerman and Jordan Zimmerman.
And then, Billy and Josh Hamilton.
You had the second pick. You selected Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Eric Hosmer, Chris Sale, and Brandon Phillips.
Popular opinion is that both Zimmerman's should be gone. Yet, here they are, available to you.
Ryan Zimmerman, in your thinking, should have been taken two rounds ago, Jordan, a round ago.
The question is- Do you take Ryan Zimmerman because he has more 'value' or Jordan Zimmerman for better roster construction?
Of course, there is a myriad of other players that are possible to select, but for this exercise, lets limit it to the Zimmerman boys.

Second scenario is more fun.
You've started your team with pitchers and supposed five category players.
Kershaw, Kipnis, Segura, Sale, Chapman, and Ben Zobrist, and you are looking for an extreme power or speed guy with your seventh pick.
The Hamilton boys are both of 'value' now, thought to have been picked in the fifth round. Nobody else is 'valued' as much as these two.
The question is- Would you narrow your search to these two players because they offer the most 'value' or would you look at other players thought to be going around the sixth or seventh round as well?
And if the pick is between the two Hamilton's, which $10 dollar bill would you select?

This isn't meant to put you on the spot. There is no wrong or right answer to these scenarios.
It is an exercise in fun and trying to get a sense in how much you value, 'value'.
And who knows, maybe you'll win over some new readers here....

I don't think anyone is advocating drafting BPA if you have all your positions filled for that guy. This year I can think of a SS that is going in the 13th round this year that should be going in the 9th/10th round. I might pass a fair-value SS (lets say Hanley Ramirez) with the 6th or 7th pick with an eye on making this other guy my shortstop around the 11th/12th round That's my idea of finding value. I try to isolate 6-10 guys every year who should be going multiple rounds higher than they are and draft accordingly.

What I mean by "my projections and values aren't better..." is for example, let's say everyone thinks Goldschmidt will hit 35 HR's but I think he'll hit 40...and I buy Goldschmidt...and I was right and everyone else was wrong because he hits 40.
If I could do that with a bunch of players, that would mean my projections are better. ''

But actually, I probably agree with everyone else that he'll hit 35, so therefore my projections aren't better than everyone else. So my success is not based on better projections, but other aspects of strategy, such as knowing when, why to draft a player...how much to bid at an auction...in-season management, etc.

Doughboys -- put very simply, if based on stat projections and an intelligent value formula a player has a dollar value of $20, and you buy him at an auction for $18, that's a good deal...if you buy him for $22, that's a bad deal.

And many people will spend $22 for reasons such as "position scarcity" and other reasons that are often not valid.

Similarly, someone might select a $30 2B rather than a $35 OF in a draft, and that isn't necessarily a wise move.

In an auction or draft, the average team will end up with $260 value. So the goal is to get more value than that. If you leave a draft with $290, $300 or total value, you're going to be much better than the average team.

Again, this is a quick explanation.

So, in short, you are just a 'value drafter'?

yeah, I guess you can say that. although that's putting it awfully simply. If I just wanted to say "draft value" I would have written a short article, not a 95,000 word book.

And getting some roster balance is also important. Obviously, in a league like NFBC where no trading is allowed, getting balance is extremely important.

lschechter wrote:yeah, I guess you can say that. although that's putting it awfully simply. If I just wanted to say "draft value" I would have written a short article, not a 95,000 word book.

And getting some roster balance is also important. Obviously, in a league like NFBC where no trading is allowed, getting balance is extremely important.

It only takes a few, short articles

Its not just player valuation or roster balance. Its also how the league as a whole values players. If you project hitting/pitching to be 65/35 but the league you participate in values it, say, 55/45 or 80/20, then your valuations will have little meaning, or at the very least you'll need to adjust on the fly accordingly.

Just wanted to say that I finished the book and really enjoyed it. I could tell (and appreciate) the effort that went into trying to keep certain sections digestible and easy to follow. I also gained an appreciation for how much time and effort were behind your successes. Reading the book gave me a number of interesting ideas, and I liked how you identified, and then logically criticized, a number of popular beliefs and strategies. Even if one were to disagree with certain aspects of your book, it was nice to read a book focused solely on fantasy baseball strategies, draft preparation and in-season management. Finally, as someone that has done many, many snake drafts but has never had a chance to participate in an auction league, I especially liked your chapters on auction strategies.

Best of luck with the book.

Mike

getting mine in the mail today. cant wait to dive in!

Awaiting mine, look forward to it. For me gaining anything out of it insight wise is a bonus, I would enjoy it even just for the source material over the long no baseball winter. Congrats on the publication.

I'm maybe halfway thru as I'm skipping around a bit, but it's excellent.

We are excited to have Larry on tonight's STATS Fantasy Advantage on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio to talk about the NFBC and the book. Larry will appear during our 9 pm ET segment as the show runs from 8 to 10 pm ET on SiriusXM 210/87. See ya there.