Winter Training

[CC's Desperados]

With the NFL regular season wrapping up yesterday, it’s about that time to start thinking about fantasy baseball. While we still have plenty of time to get prepared, it’s never a bad thing to get started early. As we prepare for the new year, here is an excerpt from my article about scoutPRO’s scoutEDGE scores for fantasy baseball:

The development of scoutPRO’s scoutEDGE scores started with the theory around average player scores. In today’s fantasy baseball market, it is extremely difficult to determine a baseball player’s value when drafting for multiple positions, never mind multiple scoring categories. The average player theory is a way to compare players at similar positions. Once we have a baseline of the average player at a position, we can determine which players have the biggest edge. The next step after establishing the scores at each position is then comparing the best option at other positions.

Each season the player pool changes. Some positions will have more depth and others will only have a couple of strong options. When a fantasy baseball player is preparing to do their draft prep, they want to find the hidden values at each position. By doing this, they can select the strongest options at the other positions early in the draft.

scoutPRO has developed a way to determine each player’s value within each category relevant to their production. Hitters will have five offensive categories (batting average, runs, homeruns, RBI’s, and stolen bases). Starting pitchers will have four categories (wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts). I didn’t think it was fair to add saves to starters, as each pitcher would have the same negative number for each player. Closers and relief pitchers would have five categories (wins, ERA, WHIP, K’s, and saves).

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2013/12/30/sco ... n9HtQ.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

As we transition from fantasy football to fantasy baseball, it’s always worth checking out the final player rankings from the previous season to see how guys stack up against each other. Over the next few days, I will be reviewing the top 250 batters, top 200 starting pitchers and top 75 relief pitchers from the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Included in my analysis will be their raw statistics (HR, RBI, ERA, WHIP, etc.), as well as their final scoutEDGE scores.

To give you a preview of my rankings, here are the top 24 batters from 2013 based on their scoutEDGE score (total column) and a short excerpt about the scores. To access the rest of the rankings, click here.

The scoutEDGE score is based on a 12-team format. If you play in a 15-team or a 10-team league, each player’s value would be slightly different. As a fantasy baseball player, I’m trying to find as many players that will offer an edge in a draft or auction. These edges will change slightly based on each league format. At the same time, we need to understand which players really don’t have an edge over the players at the same position. By having a feel for this information, we will develop a better understanding on where to wait on certain positions in the draft.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2013/12/31/201 ... u0oDJ.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

If part of your New Year’s resolution includes a better performance in your fantasy baseball league, then why not kick off 2014 with a little research for your draft while you recover from last night’s festivities. Regardless of what kind of fantasy sports you play, the goal is always the same when it comes to selecting players for your team. You want to find guys that have an edge over the competition that will result in fantasy point production for your team. If you would like to check out my top 200 pitchers article, click here. Below you will find a short excerpt from it, as well as the top 25 rankings.

With the extensive player pool that you have to deal with when it comes to fantasy baseball, doing player research can seem like a daunting task. While it would be nice if everybody could be like Clayton Kershaw, unfortunately that just isn’t true. Some pitchers might help you when it comes to K’s, but they may hurt you in WHIP or ERA. Likewise, a player might rack up a bunch of wins, but not help out much in the strikeout category. By using our scoutEDGE scores, fantasy players can develop a better understanding of a player’s value and hopefully use that to their advantage during their drafts to determine exactly when to pick a player at a certain position or wait until a later round.

Here is a preview of the top 200 pitchers from 2013. To access the full rankings, click here. Happy New Year!

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2013/12/31/201 ... vCU2w.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Just to be clear on these rankings lists, they are the final results for 2013. They have no real value to 2014 other than showing their impacts on team development. This year's rankings would be totally different. In the next couple of days, I will pull some projections with stats to give a fantasy player a feel for this season. Over the next six weeks, I'll be researching each team's starting rosters and I will updated each info as I go plus I will do the write ups for each team.

[751542]

sounds like a plan, thanks shawn!

[CC's Desperados]

To close out the recap of our 2013 fantasy baseball player rankings based on scoutEDGE score, here is a link to the top 75 relief pitchers. You can also preview the rankings below by checking out the top 24 relievers from last season and a short excerpt from my article. There has been plenty of activity in the offseason involving closers, and we will probably see some more over the next few months.

As is with every offseason, a combination of trades, free agency and retirements have opened up some new opportunities for several players. The most notable would be the retirement of Mariano Rivera, MLB’s all-time leader in saves (652). With Mo hanging up the cleats, David Robertson will step into the closer’s spot in New York. A few other offseason moves involving closers include the Diamondbacks trading for Addison Reed and the Orioles dealing Jim Johnson to the Athletics. With all of this offseason activity and the presence of some young, flamethrowing closers like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, it should be another interesting year from a fantasy baseball perspective.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/#sthash.nvSmB7au.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Baltimore Orioles Offense:

Last year, the Orioles had their 2nd straight winning season (85-77), but failed to make the playoffs. Chris Davis had an incredible year, hitting .286 with 53 HR's with 138 RBI. He was the key reason why Baltimore led the majors in HR's (212), but they scored 108 less runs than the Boston Red Sox. Their starting pitching started to show some promise in 2012, but it faded to 10th in the AL (4.20 ERA) and ranked 4th in the AL East. As powerful as their offense was, their pitchers allowed a major league high 202 HR's. In the offseason, they lost OF Nate McLouth, OF Michael Morse, and 2B Brian Roberts from the offensive side and SP Scott Feldman and SP Tsuyoshi Wada from the pitching staff. The Orioles made two trades in the offseason. They traded their closer Jim Johnson to Oakland for IF Jemile Weeks and minor league C David Freitas. Baltimore also sent part time IF Danny Valencia to the Royals for OF David Lough. The middle of the batting order remains solid, but the Orioles starting staff may be a top arm away from being a competitive team in the AL East.

https://www.scoutpro.com/baltimore-orio ... am-profile

[CC's Desperados]

With 30 MLB teams to analyze (both pitching staffs and batters), it’s pretty clear what I’m going to be doing over the next few weeks. It's always good to be well-prepared for anything you encounter in life, and fantasy baseball is no different. By putting together all of these player and team profiles, I not only hope to improve my chances of success, but also any fantasy GM out there looking to get an edge over the competition.

After going over the Baltimore Orioles lineup yesterday, it’s time to look at their pitching staff. Here is a link to my breakdown of their starting rotation and bullpen. With Jim Johnson no longer around, it will be interesting to see who will step into the closer’s spot this season. Replacing a guy that had 101 saves over the past 2 seasons will not be an easy task, but a necessary one if Baltimore wants to compete in the ultra competitive AL East.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/04/fan ... EGA92.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After analyzing the Baltimore Orioles batters and pitchers over the past few days, it’s time to move on to the 2013 World Series champion Boston Red Sox. Simply put, 2013 was a magical season for Boston. Their offense was dominant, finishing first in the league in runs scored (853). Outside of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees, a majority of their team will be back for 2014.

To access my breakdown of the Red Sox lineup, click here. I know it’s early and this could evolve over the next few months, so be on the lookout for updates. For a preview of my player profiles, here is what I have to say about Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts:

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/05/201 ... ksJvs.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After breaking down the Boston Red Sox lineup, let’s move on to their pitching staff. All 5 starters are back from their 2013 World Series team. In addition, they signed Edward Mujica in the offseason to help strengthen their bullpen.

Here is a link to my breakdown of the Red Sox starting pitchers and relievers. I will continue to update all of my player profiles over the next few months to reflect anything that may impact their fantasy baseball value. To see a preview of my analysis, here is my write up on Jon Lester and Koji Uehara:

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/#sthash.PMxylIoc.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

The last couple months have been quite eventful for the Yankees (to say the least). Mariano Rivera retired, Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson left as free agents, Alex Rodriguez might be suspended for the entire season and Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury will be wearing pinstripes in 2014. Other than that, it’s been pretty quiet in the Big Apple:)

To help you sort through all of this activity, here is a link to my breakdown of the Yankees lineup. I will add A-Rod once his situation becomes more clear, so be on the lookout for that. For a preview of my player profiles, here is what I have to say about Alfonso Soriano:

Soriano has proved to be a solid value at the backend of his 8 year contract. He has played very well over the last 2 seasons (66 HR’s with 109 RBI). Last year, his speed even returned for the first time since 2008. He was absolutely electric in his 219 at bats with the Yankees (17 HR’s and 50 RBI). Over the last 3 months of last season, Alfonso had 25 HR’s with 66 RBI. His K rate (24.9%) has been at the high point of his career over the last 2 years. His walk rate (5.8%) has been short during his entire major league career. Soriano is in the last year of his contract. He has hit 20+ HR’s in his last 12 seasons. Alfonso may not be the elite player he once was with the Yankees earlier in his career, but he still has plenty of pop in his bat. New York will have 3 quality hitters hitting in front of him, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. His batting average died in 2009 and it hasn’t been an asset over the last 5 seasons. Solid source of power, but his draft value will be a lot higher this year after 2 straight 30 HR seasons.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/#sthash.kq0u9c5t.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After going over the Yankees lineup yesterday, it’s time to move on to their pitching staff. As you probably know, Mariano Rivera retired after the 2013 season, completing an illustrious career in which he compiled 652 saves (MLB record). David Robertson will assume the closer’s role in New York (no big shoes to fill or anything). The other 4 teams in the AL East all ranked in the top 11 in the majors last year in runs scored, so a good pitching staff will be needed if the Yankees are going to get back to the playoffs.

Here is a link to my analysis of the Yankees starting rotation and bullpen. To give you a preview of my player profiles, here is my breakdown of Hiroki Kuroda:

Kuroda pitched his 4th straight solid season in the majors in 2013. The change from the NL to the AL hasn’t hurt his success. His command (1.9) continues to be elite, but his K rate (6.7) has declined ever so slightly over the last 3 years. As good as he has pitched, he has a losing record in the majors (68-70 with a 3.40 ERA). Last year, Hiroki had a 2.41 ERA in mid August after 25 starts. Kuroda was crushed in his last 3 starts in August (8.10 ERA and 1.86 WHIP) and pitched poorly in September (5.70 ERA and 1.50 whip). His AFB (91.5) has declined in 4 straight years. He throws a slider has his #2 pitch. Last year, he threw his split-finger fastball a career high 21% of the time. Over his last 3 seasons, his LOB % has been above the league average, resulting in a lower ERA. New York signed him to a 1 year, $16 million contract in December. Solid major league arm pitching for a team that will score runs, but his success has to end at some point.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/08/201 ... 7GlFD.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Continuing on with the AL East, it’s time to talk about the Tampa Bay Rays. It took them a little while to get things rolling at the Trop, but they have had quite a bit of success in recent years. With 4 playoff appearances in the last six years, a couple of AL East division titles and an AL Pennant in 2008, Rays fans have had plenty to cheer about.

Here is a link to my fantasy baseball analysis of the Rays lineup. Included is a breakdown of each player in the starting lineup as well as some of Tampa’s bench players. For a preview of my player profiles, here is what I have to say about Wil Myers going into the 2014 MLB season:

Myers made the step to the majors in June and handled himself pretty well. Wil hit the ground running in his first 142 at bats (.331 with 7 HR’s and 27 RBI in 142 at bats). The league seemed to catch up with him in August (.209), but he was able to bounce back for a strong September (.308 with 4 HR’s and 14 RBI). His K rate (24.4%) was higher than his minor league resume (21.2%). Myers was about the league average in walks (8.9%), but showed more upside in this area in the minors (12.2%). Wil had equal success against RH (.292) and LH (.294) pitching, although he was a little more selective against lefties. Last year, major league pitchers only threw him 49.6% fastballs, so they respect his ability to hit the heat. Myers is an exciting young power hitter with some underlying speed. His low contact rate may lead to some batting average risk. He will need to prove he can handle batting in the middle of the Rays lineup. High upside player if his approach at the plate improves. 30 HR upside, but his batting average will most likely fall under .270 in 2014.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/09/201 ... igoMI.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

The Tampa Bay Rays have made it to the playoffs 4 times in the past 6 years, and a big reason why is their pitching staff. In 2013, they ranked first in the American League East in ERA (3.74) and fifth overall in the AL. With David Price set to become a free agent after the 2014 season, it should be an interesting year for this staff. He will no doubt draw some interest at the trade deadline, so the Rays will have a decision to make come July 31st.

In the mean time, click here to check out my fantasy baseball breakdown of the Rays starters and relievers. If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of Matt Moore:

The average fantasy player is going to look at Moore’s 2013 stats and believe he made a huge step forward. His ERA (3.29) improved, but his command (4.5) and K rate (8.6) declined. He allowed the most wild pitches (17) in the league. His first pitch strikes % (51) was in Jimenez or Liriano disaster area. Last year, Tampa scored 6 runs or more 12 times during his starts. He was 16 -1 when the Rays scored 3 runs or more. In his 17 wins, Moore had a 1.67 ERA and only allowed 60 hits in 107.7 innings (.157 BAA). Overall, he dominated both sides of the plate (LH – .222 and RH – .213). His command is still weaker against LH batters. Moore missed six weeks last season with a sore elbow. His AFB (92.4) was 2 mph lower than 2012. Matt throws a curveball and changeup a high % of the time. Moore allowed 19 runs and 38 base runners in 12.2 innings over a 3 game stretch in early June. Without those 3 games in his stat line, he had a 2.35 ERA and 1.14 whip. His lack of success in those starts suggests his elbow may have been bothering him in June. Overall, Moore allowed 2 runs or less 17 times in 27 starts. Matt has an upside arm that could be electric if his command could make a huge step forward. The elbow issue is a concern for sure and he had poor command when he returned in September (20 walks in 28 innings). There hasn’t been any negative reports during the offseason, so he should be 100% healthy for spring training. Moore isn’t ready to be a fantasy ace due to his poor command, but he has enough talent to be an upside SP2 with some WHIP risk.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/10/201 ... erLxS.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After analyzing the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Rays, it’s time to finish up the AL East with the Toronto Blue Jays. They definitely went for it last year as evidenced by their offseason trade activity (Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey), but things didn’t work out as they finished last in the AL East. Their pitching finished 12th in the American League in ERA (4.25) and gave up a ton of home runs (195). While the Blue Jays can hit the ball out of the park as well, you’re going to need a good pitching staff if you want to compete in the AL East.

To read my fantasy baseball breakdown of the Blue Jays lineup, click here. For a preview, here is my analysis of Edwin Encarnacion:

Encarnacion has delivered back to back plus seasons. His season was cut short in September due to a wrist injury that required surgery. He was expected be 100% healthy by December. Edwin has 78 HR’s and 214 RBI over the last 2 years with an improving K rate (10% – career best – 15.8% in his career). His walk rate (13.2%) was also a career high. Last year, he had 25 HR’s and 72 RBI at the All Star break. In July and August, pitchers started pitching around him (39 walks and only 15 K’s in 184 at bats). In 2012, Encarnacion had a 49.5% FB rate, but last year his FB rate dropped to 43.3%, while his HR/FB rate only declined slightly (18.7% in 2012 and 17.6% in 2013). Just like Bautista, Encarnacion has a huge AVH (1.97) and has been a plus run producer over the last 2 seasons. His improvement in his approach at the plate gives him a chance at having a huge bump in batting average. As long as his wrist is healthy, he should be poised for his best season in the majors, especially if Reyes can stay healthy. His early ADP is 18, which puts the pressure on a fantasy player to decide if he is for real.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/11/201 ... FcIn0.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After breaking down the batters and pitching staffs of the entire AL East and the Toronto Blue Jays batters, there was only one thing left to analyze. The Blue Jays pitching staff did not have what you would call a successful 2o13 season, so they will need to improve if they want to be competitive in the AL East.

Click here to access my player profiles of the Blue Jays pitchers!

If you would like to see a preview of my analysis, here is my breakdown of Brandon Morrow:

Morrow looked like he had electric upside heading into 2013, but a poor spring training was an early signal that he was in for a disappointing season. Brandon only pitched well in 3 of his 10 starts, which led to a poor ERA (5.63) and WHIP (1.491). He developed a forearm strain in late May that led to him missing the rest of the season. In late June, he was diagnosed with a entrapped radial nerve in his right forearm that didn’t require surgery. His AFB (93.3) was slightly stronger than 2012. Morrow throws a slider as his #2 pitch, followed by a solid changeup. He struggled locating his pitches, which led to a huge HR/9 rate (2.0). Almost all of the damage was done by LH batters (.301 with 10 HR’s in 123 at bats). Morrow should enter spring training healthy, but he is going to be really tough to trust. He has plus K ability (9.2 in his career), which gives him upside if he stays healthy. His walk rate (3.0) has improved over the last 2 seasons, but his K rate (7.0) was a career low in 2013. Morrow has a career 4.22 ERA, so maybe he slips through the cracks to be severely discounted on draft day. As a number #5 or #6 starter, the downside risk has been eliminated, unless he totally bombs. He has talent with high injury risk, so it really comes down to price point.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/12/201 ... DWHKY.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

It’s time to move on to the AL Central, and first on the docket is the Chicago White Sox. Simply put, 2013 was a season to forget for White Sox fans. They ended the season with the worst offense in the American league, scoring only 598 runs. That measly total was good for second worst in MLB (the Marlins only scored 513 runs). When you have a pitcher (Chris Sale) that has a 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 226 K’s, but only an 11-14 record, that’s an automatic sign that things aren’t going well from an offensive standpoint. The good news with all of this is it can’t get much worse that it is right now, but as Lebron James once famously said, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the White Sox batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my player profiles, here is my analysis of their offseason acquisition from Cuba, Jose Abreu:

Abreu signed a 5 year, $68 million contract in October with the White Sox. He will take over at first base. Jose hit 30 HR’s or more in each season from 2010 to 2012 while only playing in 263 games. Abreu has had an elite approach at the plate over his last 4 seasons in the Cuban league (276 walks – 113 intentional and only 178 K’s). His walk rate was 19.5% during that stretch with a 12.9% K rate. Last year, his power took a step back (SLG % of .604). There isn’t much video available on Abreu. He had massive power in short at bats in Cuba, but the ball parks are small and the pitching talent lacks depth. Cespedes and Puig have played well in the majors after their transition from Cuba. It appears Abreu is willing to go the other way, which will help him keep his contact rate in line. I’m looking forward to watching him in spring training. I’ll set the bar at .275 with a 25/90 skill set until I see him in live action.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/13/201 ... GWA7P.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Heading into the 2014 MLB season, the Cleveland Indians will be looking to build off of a 2013 season in which they made the playoffs for only the 2nd time in the last 12 years. It was a balanced effort in terms of hitting and pitching, finishing 4th in the AL in runs (745) and 7th in ERA (3.82). That was a drastic improvement from 2012 in which they finished dead last in the AL in that category (4.78). As you can see, an almost 1.00 decrease in ERA can lead to good things for your team.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Cleveland Indians batters!

To see a preview of my breakdown of the Cleveland Indians, here is my analysis of Jason Kipnis:

Kipnis almost repeated his 2012 season. He set a career high in HR’s (17) and RBI (84). However, his K rate (21.7%) regressed from his 2012 season (16.2%). He was able to hit for a higher average though and his walk rate (11.6%) was also a career high. Jason was very good against LH pitching (.308), which was a step up from 2012 (.215). Kipnis played his best ball before the All Star break (.301 with 13 HR’s and 57 RBI). For the 2nd straight season, his production has dropped off over the 2nd half of the year. Jason made a step forward with runners on base (18% RBI rate). His LD rate (24.7%) was a career high. Also, his FB rate (32.2%) has been very low during his major league career, which hurts his upside in power. Kipnis has back to back 30 SB seasons on his resume. I like his upside, but he may have some downside in batting average. If he can repeat his 2012 approach at the plate with his 2013 success against LH pitching, we might have a 20/30 skill set with .300 upside in batting average. I see him as the most valuable 2nd baseman in 2014.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/14/201 ... K2gCH.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

I know it’s a little late, but why not talk about some fantasy baseball? There is never a bad time for that, so let’s run with it. After analyzing the Cleveland Indians batters yesterday, it’s time to shift to their pitching staff. This staff improved a ton in 2013, but will we see that improvement continue over into 2014?

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Indians pitching staff!

If you would like to see a preview of my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Indians pitching staff, here is what I have to say about John Axford:

The missing link to Axford’s success is as simple as throwing first pitch strikes. He lost his command of the strike zone on the first pitch in 2012 (54% – 61% in 2011 – 1.95 ERA). His decline in his 1st strikes % led to another poor season in 2013. John’s AFB (95.4) remains in an elite area. He throws a curveball as his 2nd best pitch, followed by a slider. Axford continues to be a low FB (30.5%) pitcher, but he has had a scorching high HR/FB rate (19.2 in 2012 and 17.2%) over the last 2 seasons. He lost his command to left hand batters (20 walks in 116 at bats). After a late trade to St. Louis, Axford did improve his command (2.6). John has 106 major leagues saves, so he will be in the mix for the closing job if his mechanics hold up. We need to see him throwing 1st pitch strikes in spring training.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/16/201 ... a0dHa.dpuf

[Edwards Kings]

Been up to my ass in alligators, Mr. Childs, so I haven't spent as much time on this thread and its links as I would like. What I have read looks great (as always) and look forward to a little free time to really go through all the information.

[CC's Desperados]

Overall, it has been a good run for the Detroit Tigers over the past few years (3 straight playoff appearances). But 2013 will probably go down as a season of what if’s after the ALCS against the eventual world champion Boston Red Sox. After winning Game 1 and leading 5-1 in the 8th inning of Game 2 (ended up losing 6-5), the wheels fell off of the Tigers express. They ended up dropping the next 3 of 4 to lose the series 4-2. If you like moral victories, a loss in the ALCS probably isn’t that bad. But if I were a Tigers fan, that loss would stick with me for awhile.

To get that bad taste out of your mouth, let’s talk about fantasy baseball. Spring training will be here before you know along with your drafts, so why not start preparing now.

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Detroit Tigers batters!

To see a preview of my analysis, here is what I have to say about Austin Jackson:

Jackson’s production regressed across the board in 2013. He had a career low 8 SB’s with 5 of those steals coming in April. A mid May hamstring injury cost him about a month of the season, plus it killed his SB upside. His K rate (21%) remains high, but it was a career low. His walk rate (8.5%) is only major league average and his approach at the plate is a big reason some fantasy owners believe he will drop in the batting order in 2014 with Kinsler now on the team. I don’t agree. Jackson scored 49% of the time when he was on base last season, which is a very good number. He offers speed at the top of the batting order with some pop. Last year, he really struggled with LH pitching (.213). Austin hits a high % of line drives (27.6% in 2013 – 23.2% in his career). This results in a low FB rate (30.7% in 2013 – career). He has high run upside if he could play a full season. Last year, Jackson didn’t deliver on his upside. His power has 20 HR upside if he starts to hit with more loft and he has upside in SB’s. His high K rate does invite some batting average risk, but I expect an uptick year.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/17/201 ... vouTq.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

Been up to my ass in alligators, Mr. Childs, so I haven't spent as much time on this thread and its links as I would like. What I have read looks great (as always) and look forward to a little free time to really go through all the information.

My job is to put you over the top! This is the year of the KING. The best part about 2014 is that you will only draft one batter from the Braves and you wish Atlanta would acquire the only Upton of value.

[CC's Desperados]

Simply put, the 2013 MLB season was a successful one for the Detroit Tigers pitching staff. Finishing 3rd in the AL in ERA (3.61) and 9th overall in MLB, they also led the AL in strikeouts and allowed the least amount of home runs. Starter Max Scherzer had a career year, going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts. 2014 is a contract year for him, so it will be interesting to see if he can build off of his dominant 2013 campaign.

Click here to access my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Detroit Tigers pitchers!

Detroit’s pitching staff will have a couple of new arms in 2014 after some offseason trades and free agent acquistions (traded Doug Fister and signed Joe Nathan). To give you an idea of what my player profiles are like, here is my analysis of Anibal Sanchez:

Last year, I was fearful of Sanchez headed into the season due to his mid season struggles. He had a great season in 2013 and ended up leading the AL in ERA (2.56). Anibal tied his career high in K’s (202). His command (2.7) was slightly lower than his previous last 2 seasons, but his AFB (93.0) was a career high and it has gained velocity in 6 straight seasons. This led to spike in his K rate (10.0 – career high). His changeup gained value, and it is now his #2 pitch (followed by a plus slider). Sanchez also throws a curveball. His big improvement was against RH batters (.207 – .291 in 2012). Furthermore, he missed time in June due to a shoulder issue. Anibal allowed 2 runs or less in 22 of his 29 starts. Sanchez has never thrown 200 innings during his career. His skill set is on the improve, but his success may be above his skill set. His ERA should fall back to the 3.50 area with less than 200 K’s.

- See more at: http://blog.scoutpro.com/2014/01/18/201 ... K3qii.dpuf

[CC's Desperados]

After winning the 1985 World Series, success has been hard to come by in Kansas City. In the 28 seasons since, they have only had 7 winning seasons (no playoff appearances). Along the same lines, their 86-76 record in 2o13 was the first time they have finished at least 10 games over .500 since 1989. Could 2014 be the year they finally breakthrough and get back to the playoffs?

Click here to read my fantasy baseball player profiles of the Kansas City Royals batters!

If you would like to see a preview of my analysis of the Royals lineup, here is what I have to say about Billy Butler:

It’s really strange looking at the power progressions of some of these Royals batters. Butler had a smokin double rate over 2009 to 2011 (140) with solid HR’s (55). His power spiked (29 HR’s) in 2012 and his doubles stayed strong (32). Essentially, he basically traded doubles for HR’s. Last year, Billy couldn’t hit doubles (27) or HR’s (15). Surprisingly, his RBI rate (18%) stayed in an elite area, while his K rate (15.3%) was slightly higher than his career average (14.3%). However, it did improve from 2012 (16.4%). His walk rate (11.8%) was a career high. Billy hit for a higher average at home (.318 – .260 on the road). His swing path may have changed slightly as he hit a career high 53.1% ground balls, which led to a career low FB rate (26.4%). Butler has a solid major league bat with upside in batting average. His high GB rate suggests his breakthrough in power isn’t repeatable. Maybe the Royals are trying to play too much small ball. Their lack of experience in the heat of the battle led to a just put it in play attitude. I like him as a player and he is just reaching his prime. While I expect a much better season, he isn’t ready to be an impact power hitter. His value takes a hit as he will just qualify for DH. Pencil him in for 20 HR’s and hope for upside.

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[CC's Desperados]

The Royals won 14 more games in 2013 than they did in 2012, and a big reason why was the improvement of their pitching staff. After leading the AL in ERA in 2013 (3.45), it will be interesting to see if their success is repeatable this season. The 2014 starting rotation will feature a couple of new faces after some offseason moves. Ervin Santana will not be back (Danny Duffy is expected to replace him), while they also signed Jason Vargas as a free agent. Luckily for them, they do have a strong bullpen to help shorten games for their starters (closer Greg Holland had 47 saves in 2013).

Click here to read my 2014 fantasy baseball player profiles of the Royals pitching staff!

To give you an idea of what my analysis is like, here is my breakdown of James Shields:

Shields delivered his 3rd straight plus season in 2013 while leading the AL in innings pitched. Overall, he has thrown 705.7 innings over the last 3 years. His K rate (7.7) was the lowest it has been in the past 4 seasons while his walk rate (2.7) was his highest since 2006. His AVB (92.2) was his 2nd highest of his career. Additionally, he has a plus change up and a cutter that is improving (plus he throws a solid curveball). He wasn’t dominant against RH batters (.272 – .248 in 2012 and .215 in 2011). James had an ERA under 3.50 in every month of the season and was great on the road (10-3 with a 2.07 ERA). Shields is a solid major league pitcher who has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last 7 years. He showed decline in 3 areas in 2013 – walk rate, K rate, and batting average to RH batters. Looking back, he has struggled in the past after a couple of solid seasons. Possible down tick year.

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