It looks like MLB.com is hosting an industry 15-team mock draft on its site today and they have posted the first few rounds online. I think NFBC owners will recognize some of the names and the 15-team format is great for us. Here you go:
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2014/01/0 ... pert-mock/
And here are the results, along with a short comment from the owner. Also keep in mind that this is an NFBC-style 15-teamer with weekly lineups, so pitching and ditching becomes less of a factor. As always, we’d love to hear your thoughts! ROUND 1
#1: Paul Sporer – Mike Trout – Miggy/Trout is still a major debate for me, but in the end I couldn’t pass up the exemplary all-around production.
#2: Lawr Michaels – Miguel Cabrera – Sooo good, sooo consistent, and ideally more durable at first base.
#3: Tim Heaney – Paul Goldschmidt – Goldy steals enough bags for me to value his power advantage over Andrew McCutchen’s in SB.
#4: David Gonos – Andrew McCutchen – Actually dropped a little in some categories from 2012, but improved BB/K ratio and has a great chance at back-to-back NL MVP awards.
#5: Nando DiFino – Robinson Cano – “Lineup downgrade” is a myth, considering last year’s Yankees lineup, and all of Cano’s 2013 homers would have gone out in Safeco.
#6: Jason Collette – Clayton Kershaw – As if taking Gomez 5th overall in our last draft wasn’t crazy enough. I’ll take Sandy Koufax Jr.
#7: Ryan Carey – Carlos Gonzalez – At this point there are plenty of options, all with some degree of risk. Hoping he can continue the trend of staying healthier in even numbered years to tap into his upside. But .300/20/20 is a nice floor.
#8: Todd Zola – Jacoby Ellsbury – He’s accident prone, not injury prone. Not saying Ellsbury will pop 32 bombs but he’ll enjoy the short porch. And oh yeah, 40-plus steals doesn’t suck.
#9: Zach Steinhorn – Adam Jones – Durable and consistent five-category production.
#10: Joe Sheehan – Bryce Harper – Less downside risk than the other options, and a good bit of upside. Curious whether he runs under Matt Williams.
#11: Nick Minnix – Prince Fielder – I like home runs, RBIs, average and dudes who hit at The Ballpark in Arlington.
#12: Jeff Erickson – Hanley Ramirez – With the understanding that this pick is super-volatile, I’ll go with the guy that really was the catalyst for the Dodgers’ second-half turnaround. Besides, almost every pick in this range is volatile, there are few safe-havens.
#13: Mike Siano - Troy Tulowitzki – One part Coors and one part SS hopefully overcomes one part missing too many games lately. When he plays over 140 games he’s special. Not dead yet.
#14: Cory Schwartz - Edwin Encarnacion – Pains me to spend a first round pick on a guy I used to get 10+ rounds later just two years ago, but in that time he’s proven he’s a legit slugger, and those are increasingly rare these days.
#15: Derek VanRiper – Ryan Braun – Can’t pass him up here. Braun hit .306/.396/.579 with 8 HR, 26 RBI in his first 32 games last season (40 HR pace) before a thumb injury surfaced in mid-May. I am attributing his pre-suspension power outage to playing through that injury rather than some post-PED issue. Contact trends even during that early-season stretch of production hint at potential decline in AVG.
ROUND 2
#16: Derek VanRiper – Adrian Beltre – Even factoring in possible 15-20 point drop from AVG, very stable batted ball profile suggests 25 HR, 100-RBI with potential for more. Also like that he’s not just a product of Arlington.
#17: Cory Schwartz – Carlos Gomez – I expect some regression but even at 80% of last year he should hit .260 with 20 HR’s and 35 SB’s. (Thanks to Jason Collette for the inspiration.) I would’ve taken Votto or Chris Davis here but I don’t need two 1B’s with my first two picks.
#18: Mike Siano – Chris Davis – Davis or Votto won’t make it back and seem to be standouts who can return big value at #18 overall. I went Davis over Votto for counting stats, age and the fact he owes me after screwing me in my AL only keeper for four years while in Texas.
#19: Jeff Erickson – Joey Votto - Davis vs. Votto was my decision coming before Mike’s pick, so he made it for me. I’m at risk in power, but between Hanley & Votto I have a good start in BA … hopefully.
#20: Nick Minnix – Jose Reyes – Same kind of risk as Hanley and Tulo, prettier smile. 15+ HR, 35+ SB … if. …
#21: Joe Sheehan – Giancarlo Stanton – Because he’s going to hit 45 homers and you’re not. Again, though, I’m taking the lowest downside of my options.
#22: Zach Steinhorn – Jason Kipnis – Still finished with 17 HR and 30 SB despite a mediocre second half and is young enough to improve. Plus, the 2B position is very weak this year.
#23: Todd Zola – David Wright – I sort of wish he’d swing more and walk less with RISP, and stay healthy, and rescue dogs, and buy my subscription but other than that I really like him.
#24: Ryan Carey – Yasiel Puig – After seeing both my targets go before this pick, I surveyed the landscape and decided to swing for some upside here on a player who has the tools do deliver more than the numbers might suggest. I can play it safe next round.
#25: Jason Collette – Shin-Soo Choo – Was hoping Kipnis would make it to 25, but I’ll will Choo Choo choose Choo
#26: Nando Di Fino – Evan Longoria – The only downside here is injury. And then maybe a lackluster lineup around him. But it’s 30 homers and a .290 average at the end of the second round.
#27: David Gonos – Dustin Pedroia – I’ll fill a tough middle infield spot with ol’ reliable hitting third in an old but still very good Red Sox lineup, and curse Nando for teasing me with Longo. I have a few outfielders I’m hoping will swing around to me for the next pick.
#28: Tim Heaney – Matt Kemp – Abundance of options for my next pick. Ample risk, yet the waning pay-off of top-flight bats justifies this gamble. A healthy Kemp should go 20-20, or at least 20-15. I dream of his stud upside, though.
#29: Lawr Michaels - Yoenis Cespedes – Kind of like the Kemp pic. Power and speed, for sure, but can he control his swing and adjust? I am banking his third season in the Show will show us just how good he is.
#30: Paul Sporer – Alex Rios – He went earlier the last time we did this, but now he’s part of a much better lineup with Fielder and Choo so I’ll jump on board.
ROUND 3
#31: Paul Sporer – Freddie Freeman – He’s gotten incrementally better in at least a couple of areas in his first three years which were ages 21-23. That’s very promising. I’ve never been a huge fan, but I’m coming around.
#32: Lawr Michaels – Buster Posey- Maybe early for a backstop, but dude can seriously rake. And drive in runs. I will take that behind the plate risk (plus, all the other names popping up were so boring in comparison).
#33: Tim Heaney – Justin Upton – Sort of insurance for the Kemp pick. Expecting something similar to last year along with a push back toward 20 SB. He’s “baseball old” but still only 26.
#34: David Gonos — Jose Bautista — Would’ve loved to see either Upton or Kemp fall to me here, but Mr. Heaney is evil. Big bat has to stay healthy, obviously, for this pick to really pay off. If I can get 140 games from him, that should be at least 30-plus homers. Hoping for 150 games and 40 homers tho!
#35: Nando DiFino — Albert Pujols – I’m chalking up his 2013 shortcomings to playing a full season with injury, after pushing too hard, too fast to get back for the early part.
#36: Jason Collette — Yu Darvish — And with that, I’m done drafting pitchers for eight rounds.
#37: Ryan Carey — Ian Desmond — I was targeting a SS with this pick and happy to snag Desmond’s 20/20 here. Adds to my power/speed opening.
#38: Todd Zola — Hunter Pence – I’ve done more drafts so far than I care to admit and there is a common theme throughout. Round 3 sucks monkey balls. I’m by no means a slave to ADP or market perception, but I know I can get all of the guys I have ranked in this range later. My normal means of countering this is to take a pitcher in this spot. Keeping in mind the majority of my drafts have been NFBC related, more pitchers are usually already drafted so I’m comfortable taking a guy I have ranked as a top 2 or 3 as the 6th or 7th SP off the board at this spot. But I don’t want to take my 2nd ranked SP as the 3rd off the board when I know I can get him (or someone similar to anchor) later. So I’ll take a little leap of faith that Pence retains some of the steals he added last year and bank on his durability.
#39: Zach Steinhorn – Jay Bruce – He’s a little boring but boring is good when you’re a virtual lock for 30-100 and can even steal a few bags.
#40: Joe Sheehan – Joe Mauer – Joe Mauer’s stats, a catcher’s eligibility, a first baseman’s playing time. Three great tastes that taste great together.
#41: Nick Minnix – Matt Holliday – He’s become kind of boring. FB%, ISO in decline. But he’s pretty much chalk.
#42: Jeff Erickson – Stephen Strasburg – This worked out so well last time – why not? Actually, there are some good reasons, like his elbow procedure, but I’m going for ceiling here. And I hate the remaining hitting pool. Will almost certainly take another SP next round too.
#43: Mike Siano – David Ortiz – A theme has been how aggravating it is to find bats already which is true as I agonized over this pick until I realized I could get a monster if I took the bullet and clogged DH, since its Ortiz it’s a flesh wound instead of a gut shot.
#44: Cory Schwartz – Starling Marte – I already have one high-SB/low-AVG risk guy in Gomez, but I perceive Marte as being the best player on the board right now so I’ll take him anyway. His age and athleticism offer plenty of upside, and with him and Gomez I don’t have to sweat speed very much for the remainder of the draft.
#45: Derek VanRiper – Jose Fernandez – The more I review Fernandez’s rookie campaign the more I think he’s a once-in-a-decade level talent. He just kept getting better throughout last season both at putting hitters away and limiting the walks. To me, he’s the young pitcher currently in the big leagues that is most likely to push his way into Clayton’s Kershaw’s tier.
ROUND 4
#46: Derek Van Riper – Adam Wainwright – The extra innings Wainwright typically gives compared to other top-tier pitchers helps offset potential limitations for Fernandez next year, while I feel as though Fernandez has the ability to maintain elite ratios thanks to the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly home park run environment on top of a dominant arsenal.
#47: Cory Schwartz – Ryan Zimmerman – It’s awfully tempting to take Josh Donaldson here but he basically had the season in 2013 that Zimmerman has had in every healthy season of his career. He was healthy again in 2013 and raked down the stretch, so I’m expecting his typical .285-25-85-5 season in 2014.
#48: Mike Siano – Matt Carpenter – Wanted a 2B and in the process got a guy who can also play 3B, score mucho runs and hit .300. I’m going to scramble for speed later but also OF so I should be OK. This felt right.
#49 Jeff Erickson – Cliff Lee – I know that the ADP data suggests that I could have waited until the fifth round to get him, but my alternatives to taking him were (a) other starting pitchers, or (b) hitters that I don’t have valued that highly to be taken here. So I’ll take the ratios and K’s, hope the wins come or that he gets dealt at the deadline to a better run support environment.
#50: Nick Minnix – Madison Bumgarner – Great pitching environment, great pitching, great reliability. I prefer to wait to take pitching, even if it makes me a dinosaur, but I don’t view any particular bat I’d select here as one that’d provide me with an advantage, and Mad Bum is one of the few remaining who’s the sort of comfortably projected pitcher who’ll earn his roto salary with relative ease.
#51: Joe Sheehan – Felix Hernandez – Best remaining starter, and one I like a bit more than the last couple taken. He’s moved past the young fireballer role into something more mature, and I think the Mariners’ failures around him have leached into his standing in fantasy. A candidate to be the best pitcher in the AL in any season.
#52: Zach Steinhorn – Craig Kimbrel – My first thought was to go SP here but there are some starters that I like who are bound to last at least another round. Went with the guy who I feel is the surest thing still left on the board.
#53: Todd Zola – Chris Sale – My credo for drafts is draft the pitcher, not the round. I identify a tier of starters from which I want to build my staff and time it to procure one on that tier. As such, I am thrilled to be adding my 6th ranked starter but the 9th one off the board in this pretend draft. Sale’s skills are already top-5 worthy. All he needs to finish there are a few lucky wins or adding a handful of innings to his total.
#54: Ryan Carey – Max Scherzer – Can’t really complain with getting last year’s Cy Young award winner as the 10th SP off the board. Finally put it all together last year and led the league in wins (21) and WHIP (0.97). Even with a little regression to his ratios, he’s still going to rack up a boatload of K’s and be a threat to win 20 games once again this year.
#55: Jason Collette – Josh Donaldson – Come back home to Papa. Need the pop after taking just one batter in the first three rounds.
#56: Nando DiFino – Justin Verlander – Something was way off with him last year. And I don’t mean to be “that guy” drafting all these rebound candidates, but if Verlander is sitting there at 56 — and we’ve gone a full off-season without any word of rehabbing, rest, or minor procedures — you’d have to lean on the “he’ll be fine” side and snag him here.
#57: David Gonos – Elvis Andrus – With Kinsler gone, there’s a little more room in the middle infield, and now Elvis bats behind Shin-Soo Choo, and ahead of Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre. Also, at just 25 years old, he’s still on the rise.
#58: Tim Heaney – David Price – I’m not typically one to scramble for a big arm, but here, that’s where the best value appears. I see a significant drop-off after the next few SPs. I don’t care what uniform he wears, and I won’t allow the two bad months he displayed last year to alter my view that he’s a fantasy ace.
#59: Lawr Michaels – Wil Myers – Lots of upside on a good team that is generally good at making their young-ins successful. And, well, it will be fun to watch him.
#60: Paul Sporer – Cole Hamels – I’ll get in on the pitcher party with a bona fide ace of my own. I think topping those 8 wins from 2013 is a rather safe bet. I think he is one of the more underrated aces in the game. He is just so good.
ROUND 5
#61: Paul Sporer – Allen Craig – He’s adding games yearly, maybe this is the year he gets a full season!! I’m not betting on another .454 AVG w/RISP, but I’d gladly take the .400 he posted in 2012. While I’m definitely betting on a drop in RISP AVG (and thus the RBI), I’m also betting on a jump back up in HRs. I also just love Allen Craig, so it was easy to pick him.
#62: Lawr Michaels – Ian Kinsler – New park, new season, new division, and Miggy hitting behind him (I am guessing). Dude is due to play full and healthy season. Just please deliver.
#63: Tim Heaney – Jean Segura – Here, I value my eyes more than the indicators. Segura’s rise to the bigs hid his power base, which is better than most think thanks to the same lower-body strength that drives his steals prowess. His fade probably had to do with his DWL play extending his season and producing fatigue. Most importantly, this price alleviates his bust risk. I’m counting on 30-plus SB, 7-10 HR (which still separates him from E-Cab in my book) and another reasonable if not excellent BA.
#64: David Gonos – Mark Trumbo – Entering his prime power years, Trumbo moves to the NL and while changing addresses is generally not a good thing for a hitter, especially in recent years, I like this move for him. Hitting in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup with Paul Goldschmidt is a good thing, and 35-40 homers is a possibility.
#65: Nando DiFino – Jedd Gyorko – He hit 23 home runs in just 125 games last season (some which he played hurt), without much help in the lineup…as a rookie. This comes after three minor league seasons in which Gyorko hit .319 with a .900-plus OPS.
#66: Jason Collette – Carlos Santana
#67: Ryan Carey – Eric Hosmer – Hosmer certainly looked like he turned the corner the last four months of last year. Obviously I am betting that he can continue to display those skills and tap into his emerging power even more and top 20 home runs for the first time. His .300 batting average and 15 steals help make up for his lack of big power numbers.
#68: Todd Zola – Brandon Phillips – The new Ray Durham with maybe a little more power and a little less speed. I’m still playing chicken with a couple of guys high on my board. I got burned hoping Trumbo would fall here. I’m on record as saying I’d prefer Trumbo over Bruce.
#69: Zach Steinhorn – Everth Cabrera – Not expecting another .283 AVG but he did significantly cut down on his strikeouts last year, so something around .270 with 40-plus steals is a real possibility. Oh yeah, and the SS position is paper thin.
#70: Joe Sheehan – Billy Hamilton – I punted speed (and protected against downside) for four rounds, so while I probably can wait a little longer, the downside risk of doing so is high. I took Hamilton here in the October mock, and the Reds have done nothing to dissuade me from the idea that he’s going to play, and probably bat leadoff. If he plays, it’s 80 steals and 100 runs, even at a .300 OBP.
#71: Nick Minnix – Wilin Rosario – I think he’s the third best backstop this year. In a 15-team, two-catcher setup, I prefer to have one very good one. If he adds another 50 ABs, like he did last season, could easily mean that 25 or 30 homers accompany that .270 average. I’d like to fill my empty 2B or 3B spot, but the available players at either position don’t stick out quite as much.
#72: Jeff Erickson – Kenley Jansen – Ugh, not exactly happy with how this went. There are a handful of SPs I like here, but not so many bats – at least, those available are pretty fungible at this point. So I’ll take #1A among closers in my book. Jansen has improved across the board each of the last two years, and no longer walks the park. Let’s see what the next six picks bring.
#73: Mike Siano – Aroldis Chapman – I’ll keep the CL run alive I think. This has some Chirs Sale intrigue to it but that worked out just fine as well. On paper right now, it looks like the Reds have five starters and some SP depth in the Minors, so I’m feeling good Chapman will be #1A as well or maybe a #1A.
#74: Cory Schwartz – Jayson Werth – I would’ve taken Kenley here had he fallen; I passed on Kimbrel with my last two picks in hopes that he would. Oh well, got close. I’ll take Werth instead, who I considered with my last pair of picks. He’s been up and down over the past three seasons but I’ll pencil in a .280-25-80-8 season and hope he stays healthy enough to achieve it. Lots of 8’s.
#75: Derek VanRiper – Jason Heyward – The end of the fifth round seems like a great time to draft a guy who earned just $5 in this format last season, but he’ll be long gone before my Round 7-8 picks. Heyward never seemed like a great leadoff option to me, but he drew more walks last season and cut his strikeout rate significantly, while maintaining an ISO (.173) that is close to his career mark (.184). Same sample size caveats apply, but he improved his marks against LHP after being dominated by them previously. I see 20/20 with the possibility for more in both categories, and the improving eye bodes well for strides in his AVG as well.
