NFBC Message Boards

Let's start our series of weekly Live Chats with the best leadoff hitter in all of fantasy baseball: Todd Zola of Mastersball.com. The speed of answers is there like Billy Hamilton, the power is there like Rickey Henderson, and the scoring ability is there like Tim Raines. He's scoring all the time!!

Anyway, few people have been working on this year's baseball rankings and ratings sooner than Todd and he's ready to dive in and tell you trends he's seeing the NFBC Draft Champions Leagues. He's also here to answer any question you have, baseball or otherwise.

Feel free to load up this thread with questions and Todd will prepare his answers in advance and be ready to load them on Thursday. He will be here on Thursday from 7 pm ET until the West Coast folks go to bed. Thanks Todd for doing this and enjoy everyone.

Aloha! Who is the first closer to implode and who is your surprise closer-in-waiting?

Which hitter, currently ranked outside top 200 is most likely to end season with top 25 stats? Why?

There are clearly a top 10 or so that play in nfbc and are successful each year. Besides their fanball subscriptions, what are they doing that leads to this success that others are not?

Okay, Todd, since you were part of the ESPN Summit, tell us where the disputes in rankings came. I see the Top 50 is posted, but where did the debates begin and end?

Here's the ESPN Top 50, for those who care:

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... ngs-summit

Todd, What do you see for the bullpen in Baltimore if they don't add anyone? Do they really think Hunter can be the closer? Thanks Roy

De Aza, Gardner, Ethier. The White Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have rebuilt their engines and these are the extra nuts left on the floor. Who gets traded and do you want them on your team?

Edwards Kings wrote:De Aza, Gardner, Ethier. The White Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have rebuilt their engines and these are the extra nuts left on the floor. Who gets traded and do you want them on your team?

Brett Gardner is starting in left field for the Yankees - don't see him getting traded since they got the stater they needed with $$$$ and not via trade ... Todd can handle the other two

Captain Hook wrote:

Edwards Kings wrote:De Aza, Gardner, Ethier. The White Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have rebuilt their engines and these are the extra nuts left on the floor. Who gets traded and do you want them on your team?

Brett Gardner is starting in left field for the Yankees - don't see him getting traded since they got the stater they needed with $$$$ and not via trade ... Todd can handle the other two

So Soriano DH's with Suzuki? Makes sense and I guess the Yanks will be spreading their AB's all around DH, OF, IF. Anybody on that team other than Teixeira (if healthy) and Ellsbury (same) get more than 525 AB?

Todd, how do you approach an AL or NL only auction differently when compared to a mixed? Are you a spread the wealth drafter or stars & scrubs or do you utilize some other known strategy?

Please provide specific strategic points when attacking the shallower draft pool and almost non-existent in-season free agent pool. Are there any do's or don'ts that you apply?

Do you go in knowing that the NFBC only leagues will play differently than the Touts, LABR, etc. etc. expert auctions? If so what shifts in strategy do you apply?

If you had to pick a partner for a AL auction league had only three choices from the following who would you pick?

1. Sam Walker, author of Fantasyland about the Tout Wars.

2. Larry Schechter, author of Winning Fantasy Baseball. Also a Tout Wars member.

3. Shawn Childs, Just wins the money!

How much leash does Uggla have and who steps in if he's reached the end? Ramiro Pena? Pastornicky?

MadCow Sez wrote:Aloha! Who is the first closer to implode and who is your surprise closer-in-waiting?

I'd flip a coin between Hawkins and Axford though I suspect Axford has a longer leash.

I don't think there are any more surprise closers in waiting -- the NFBC pretty much picks everyone clean. I don't think Brothers or Allen are surprises to back up the above.

Maybe Vic Black if Parnell can't be ready right away (though he's been cleared).

poopytooth wrote:Which hitter, currently ranked outside top 200 is most likely to end season with top 25 stats? Why?

Honest answer is none. This is a crystal ball question and mine broke years ago with its replacement still on back order.

Answer because you want a name - Josh Rutledge. If he wins the job he can go .280-20-20 which would put him close to top 25.

poopytooth wrote:There are clearly a top 10 or so that play in nfbc and are successful each year. Besides their fanball subscriptions, what are they doing that leads to this success that others are not?

I have no idea, you'll have to ask them.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:Okay, Todd, since you were part of the ESPN Summit, tell us where the disputes in rankings came. I see the Top 50 is posted, but where did the debates begin and end?

Here's the ESPN Top 50, for those who care:

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/sto ... ngs-summit

The summit is a little like Vegas -- what goes on in the room stays in the room and if I want to be invited back I need to be a little careful. There was a chat going along with the summit that doesn't take long to read where you can get an idea of some of the disputes plus the guys are spending today filming video where they will be in essence reenacting some of the more lively discussions.

With that said, the majority of the discussions were on guys like Kemp, Pujols, Bautista. Keeping in mind Stephania Bell was part of the summit, while I can't share what she told us about some of the players lest I won't be invited back and she'll lose some of her sources, you can get a real feel for what she may have said by where the injury players are ranked. For instance, Matt Kemp is out of the top-50 and will be borderline top-75. I'd be willing to bet the NFBC ADP of Clay Buchholz is better than where we ranked him.

The player that I continue to take heat for is Alex Rios. The guy has been a top 10/top 12 hitter the past two seasons but no one realizes it.

To me the two biggest takeaways from the summit were more strategic and actually made me a little happy since I've been saying both for years.

1. Giving players a scarcity bump in the first couple of round is not worth it.
2. And FINALLY, another group has caught up to the fact pitching, as a whole, should be drafted a little earlier. We had votes for Kershaw as early as 5 overall but it's not so much Kershaw as the tier below went earlier than usual.

The other takeaway was while Kimbrel is still the best, the gap between him and a group of 3 or 4 is less than previous seasons not to mention there are actually 3 or 4 guys in the neighborhood, the neighborhood being the 100-K closer club (Chapman, Jensen, Holland and maybe Rosenthal).

Roy's Outlaws wrote:Todd, What do you see for the bullpen in Baltimore if they don't add anyone? Do they really think Hunter can be the closer? Thanks Roy

This is a team that used Jim Johnson for as long as they did so I do think Hunter could be closer but I also think now that Tanaka has signed, all the other chips will fall and we could still see Rodney go there.

Edwards Kings wrote:De Aza, Gardner, Ethier. The White Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have rebuilt their engines and these are the extra nuts left on the floor. Who gets traded and do you want them on your team?

The only one I see traded is De Aza. Gardner is starting for the Yankees and Ethier is needed for Kemp insurance.

De Aza is a nice fit in Cincinnati.

There's also a chance the White Sox deal Viciedo instead.

I'll take any of them at the right spot in a draft. Gardner is likely to hit 8th or 9th which will cost him some plate appearances but he'll run. If I can get De Aza as my OF4 or OF5 I'll jump on that since you can usually find a replacement if necessary and if he plays full time he's an OF3.

Ethier is my least favorite though with Fri moves, there will be half-weeks where he'll play 3 games and is worth a back end roster spot.

Edwards Kings wrote:

Captain Hook wrote:

Edwards Kings wrote:De Aza, Gardner, Ethier. The White Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have rebuilt their engines and these are the extra nuts left on the floor. Who gets traded and do you want them on your team?

Brett Gardner is starting in left field for the Yankees - don't see him getting traded since they got the stater they needed with $$$$ and not via trade ... Todd can handle the other two

So Soriano DH's with Suzuki? Makes sense and I guess the Yanks will be spreading their AB's all around DH, OF, IF. Anybody on that team other than Teixeira (if healthy) and Ellsbury (same) get more than 525 AB?

I think the WANT Beltran to get at least 525 AB. Kelly Johnson could as well.

Glenneration X wrote:Todd, how do you approach an AL or NL only auction differently when compared to a mixed? Are you a spread the wealth drafter or stars & scrubs or do you utilize some other known strategy?

I don't think I'm either a StW or S&S auction player - I take what the room gives me. I try to read very early how much the top-end players will go for and if I feel there is a decent return on investment, I'll pay for the stars and if there isn't, I'll wait until I see an entry point where I feel a decent ROI. The trend lately has been to be aggressive at the top so it's been awhile since I have a $35+ player, but I don't waddle into the room saying I'm not going to get one.

I haven't really done many mixed auctions and those that I have done I have not performed as well as I expected - I'm still trying to crack the code there. Read between the lines, I'm doing my first mixed auction in a few years so that either means I can finally afford it or I finally think I can be a competitor and not a donator (or both).

Glenneration X wrote:Please provide specific strategic points when attacking the shallower draft pool and almost non-existent in-season free agent pool. Are there any do's or don'ts that you apply?

I think you may be backwards with 'shallow'. AL and NL only leagues are conventionally termed DEEP while mixed leagues pools are SHALLOW.

For me the key in AL and NL only is to get as many starters as possible. This doesn't mean to avoid the stars as you don't HAVE to balance stars with scrubs but I'd like as many AB as possible in AL and NL leagues.

I also believe in paying for at least one closer in and only league and not chasing saves over the wire. The way to make sure you have starters in every hitting spot may be to borrow some budget from hitting so I may have some high-K middle relievers in my active 9 pitchers then look to fortify starting pitchers via reserve picks or FAAB.

Glenneration X wrote:Do you go in knowing that the NFBC only leagues will play differently than the Touts, LABR, etc. etc. expert auctions? If so what shifts in strategy do you apply?

The primary difference is there's trading in the industry league so I'm more likely to roster potential from wherever then deal for points later. In the NFBC, you need to come out pretty balanced since you can't backfill a weakness or rid a surplus via trade.

I wish I could say something like "NFBC pay more for stars than industry" or whatever, but every year/table is different.

Walla Walla wrote:If you had to pick a partner for a AL auction league had only three choices from the following who would you pick?

1. Sam Walker, author of Fantasyland about the Tout Wars.

2. Larry Schechter, author of Winning Fantasy Baseball. Also a Tout Wars member.

3. Shawn Childs, Just wins the money!

Since none of the above isn't a choice - I'd rather fly solo - I'll take Sam because he's most likely to forget when/where the draft is and leave me to do it myself.

I've won the last three NL NFBC auctions I participated in and have also cashed in the AL multiple times. I'll let that track record speak for itself.

Who are 3 players in the top 50 ADP that you will try to avoid at all costs? And why?

Thanks

Krys

Atlas wrote:How much leash does Uggla have and who steps in if he's reached the end? Ramiro Pena? Pastornicky?

Considering Uggla was left off of the playoff roster for Elliot Johnson, I can't imagine the leash is all that long. Assuming Atlanta wants to compete, neither Pena nor Pastornicky is the answer.

In house, there's Tommy La Stella who could actually force his way onto the roster with a hot spring. Maybe now that Tanaka is not going to the Mariners, they look to deal Nick Franklin. Both Brandon Phillips and Daniel Murphy are said to be on the block.

ikenbaseball wrote:Who are 3 players in the top 50 ADP that you will try to avoid at all costs. And why?

Thanks

Krys

I won't avoid anyone -- I have an expectation for every player and an associated expectation for every draft spot and if A=B, then I'll take the player.

That said, there are players I am not likely to get if they go AT THEIR ADP or earlier. There are actually more than three that fit the bill but to answer the question and provide some general philosophy that can be used to figure out some of the other players...

1. Kershaw - not saying it is wrong to take him in the first, just saying I'm not going to do it. If he makes it to the second, he's on my radar. The sole exception would be if I was picking 13/14/15 and I felt I could get the same hitter if I went Kershaw/hitter or hitter/Kershaw, I'd take Kershaw. But since his ADP is around 5, he won't last until 13/14/15 very often.

2. Bryce Harper - again, not going to question anyone that does take Harper in the first/second but my philosophy is still to be risk averse early and take my chances later. There is a plausible path for Harper to be worthy of a pick between 5 and 15 but it involves more risk than I'm willing to incur that early.

3. Jay Bruce - everyone sees the same old production from Bruce last season but the pathway he took to get there was different than before as he fanned a whole lot and got lucky with his BABIP. He may cut back on his whiffs again but in the area he's going, I'm not touching him. I'll concede 30-100 but he could hit .245. It's not so much production as production versus what I expect from that draft spot.

ToddZ wrote:

ikenbaseball wrote:Who are 3 players in the top 50 ADP that you will try to avoid at all costs. And why?

Thanks

Krys

I won't avoid anyone -- I have an expectation for every player and an associated expectation for every draft spot and if A=B, then I'll take the player.

That said, there are players I am not likely to get if they go AT THEIR ADP or earlier. There are actually more than three that fit the bill but to answer the question and provide some general philosophy that can be used to figure out some of the other players...

1. Kershaw - not saying it is wrong to take him in the first, just saying I'm not going to do it. If he makes it to the second, he's on my radar. The sole exception would be if I was picking 13/14/15 and I felt I could get the same hitter if I went Kershaw/hitter or hitter/Kershaw, I'd take Kershaw. But since his ADP is around 5, he won't last until 13/14/15 very often.

2. Bryce Harper - again, not going to question anyone that does take Harper in the first/second but my philosophy is still to be risk averse early and take my chances later. There is a plausible path for Harper to be worthy of a pick between 5 and 15 but it involves more risk than I'm willing to incur that early.

3. Jay Bruce - everyone sees the same old production from Bruce last season but the pathway he took to get there was different than before as he fanned a whole lot and got lucky with his BABIP. He may cut back on his whiffs again but in the area he's going, I'm not touching him. I'll concede 30-100 but he could hit .245. It's not so much production as production versus what I expect from that draft spot.

I should have worded the question better then I did, but you answered the question as it was intended.

Thanks

Krys