Kudos to Greg and Tom and Fan Duel. Nice event. And the eye-candy was superb. She really handled the balls well!
And to the people who said they looked forward to the blog again, I really appreciate your kind words. As usual, I will keep it up as long as I feel I can add some relevance or at least some entertainment. I will at least keep going as long as my team has some chance at a money spot. Since my team will not tank this year as in years past (
), hopefully this will at least be a 26 week blog.For this first post, I wanted to do something a little different. About ten days ago, I wrote about what I was thinking. And to be perfectly honest, I have not read it since then. I locked it down and will post here unedited. Afterward (and after getting caught up on work emails for the two days I was out), I will post my usual analysis of two teams (my auction and my Main, though I will probably only focus on the Main for most of the year) and kind of compare what was planned and what was executed. Kind of like starting a story "A funny thing happen on the way Bellagio..."
March 20, 2014
Pay attention to the date. I am writing this because I am just now to the point of in the “prep” of putting strategy to bed (I only do two leagues, so I do not trial things like others might…one strategy for draft…one for auction). I still need to make sure of injuries, batting orders and final rotation spots, but by and large, my notes are complete. This is how I am planning to execute my leagues and I will not alter this journal after I complete it. I will post it Monday, time willing, March 31st after I get back from Vegas. It is always fun to see what you have to change during the events and after the year is over and I am standing in front of my big checks, it will serve as a refresher on just how bright I truly am.
How I look at players has not changed, but I did change my overall strategy. Overall strategy first. Many of you may have gotten here or tried this before. Not really a “Stars n Scrubs”. A little more bottom up than that and totally focused on points. Batting points I am breaking down in three groups because each is separate and distinct from each other. Stolen bases are a class by themselves. An add-on as far as I am concerned and barely related to the other categories. Batting average is another class because batting average doesn’t care if you are a power hitter, a Judy, or one of the many that fall in between. Finally, something I call “Total Points” is the third and of course is made up of homeruns, runs batting in, and runs scored. I add up the three to judge the relative value in this combined category. Some few of the guys who get large amounts of runs scored do not hit many homeruns or drive in many runs either, but that class is small. Within a relatively narrow range, skewed for where the at bats occur in the lineup, if a guy is going to hit so many homeruns, he will have so many RBI’s and runs scored.
Big deal, right? For total points, however, it allows you to separate the sheep from the goats. Assume your bats by position generate on average 60 runs, 15 homeruns, and 60 runs batting in to go with a very conservative 5 stolen bases. One thing is almost certainly going to happen. You will be last in your league in points in those categories. Over the course of the year you would have generated 840 R, 210 HR, 840 RBI and about 70 SB. Honestly, you really have to work pretty hard (or quit) to do worse than that. But there are a lot of players out there that are plus or minus just a few ticks off those marks. They will not be hard to find. The opposite of scarce.
What does that give me? If I plan on half or so of my players getting those points, I have cut my population of primary concern and premium in half as well. For total points, I can concentrate on getting skills in six or seven players. Once I draft or buy those guys, the rest of the population becomes ducks on the pond. Or better yet, like prom dates. Readily available and easy to replace. Of course, the Super Six (catchy) will have to produce which we all know is no guarantee. But at this stage where we are all essentially tied for first (except for those stupid games in Australia), every players potential is in front of them and absent any disappointment.
What does the Super Six need to do? I predict that I need 520 Runs, 130 Home Runs, and 485 RBI’s to add to my “average” players cumulative stats. Not as important, but getting 115 Stolen Bases and a good batting average would be nice. The stolen base total is VERY aggressive given I was VERY conservative with the average players in that department.
These number may not win, but it makes me part of the conversation and depending on how the season unfolds, gives me opportunities to focus on the categories I may need rather than just scrambling for mediocrity as I have done so often in the past.
For the Auction, in addition to the stats, I am going to target $130 for the Super Six bats. I will not get Miguel Cabrera nor will I get Mike Trout. There are enough players who are good enough to hit my targets with three $30-$25 players and three $15 players. Probably looking at one middle infielder, one or two corner men, and two or three outfielders. This is not a change in my budget from past years, just a change in focus.
For the Main Event, I am going to have my Super Six drafted in the top ten rounds. As I write this, I do not know what my draft slot is, which could change things like when I will get my first pitcher, which could be the third round or the fourth. I still feel (perhaps incorrectly) that the outfield position is thinner than most seem to think. My Super Six will contain at least three outfielders and at least one cornerman. That is the only concession I am making to position scarcity. I may not take a middle infielder or a catcher until after the tenth round, but then again I may. I will be basically blind to position because there are plenty the “average” guys out there recognizing for every guy who has no real chance to get more than 10 homeruns, I will need a guy who has a chance to get 20. This is doable. There were 82 guys who hit at least 18 homeruns last year including such with the hype and talents as Nate Schierholtz and Matt Dominguez.
I will avoid the Judy’s. No Eric Young or Ben Revere or Billy Hamilton or Jonathan Villar or Rajai Davis. As to the stolen bases, I believe they will be tougher to get in the draft than the auction so my early focus will be to snag at least three guys who can generate 75 SB between them. Kind of a subset of a subset.
For pitching in the Main Event, I really liked what I did last year. The fact that both my closers crapped out is just bad luck but not unusual since at least a third of the closers who begin the year will not be closers at the end. And many of the surprises last year were in the closer ranks. I guess I am just not smart enough to see the likes of Mujica and Farquhar coming. Sure, some pundit will say they “could have an impact”, but really they say that about 90% of the 40 man rosters. I “could” date Jennifer Anniston, but that would be a worthless prediction too.
Anyway I will not have Kershaw or Darvish or Scherzer. Depending on my draft slot, I will pick up my first starter anywhere from early third to mid-fourth. I am as high on Price, Bumgarner, and Sale. I also had Hamels here, but not so much now with the shoulder. Trying to not draft “injured” players no matter how far they fall. If you have ever seen/heard Bill Engvall’s routine about catching a “dork fish” using a corndog for bait, that is me thinking I am getting a steal…real value…off injured players like Hart last year. NO MORE. Perhaps a new term for the NFBC dictionary. A “corndog” is an injured player who acts like bait for the “dork fish” owner who drafts him. If I end up with Grienke or Shields as my first starter, I am behind but I honestly do not think the drop off is so great that it cannot be overcome. I will have three starters and one closer in the top ten rounds. Depending on how I have managed with my Super Six, I want three closers in total, even one from Colorado or Houston. And my pitchers will be power arms. I know the appeal of guys like Jordan Zimmerman, but in order to get anywhere closer to 1,300 K’s, you need a core of power arms.
In the Auction for pitching, I will not have the Kershaw’s or Darvish’s or Scherzer’s either. I just won’t spend the money. Too crippling later. I do want one of the next most desirable class (say $20 class) plus two more really solid ($10 ish). Then it is the bargain basement. I want two closers, one for about $15 and one third tier. Six starters to plan with two closers and one “flex” depending on which way the wind blows (could be a starter or a reliever with good prospects of taking the 9th inning during the year).
Overall in the Auction, I want to plan to spend $175 on bats and $75 on pitchers. I have budgeted the positions that way with a $10 mad-money fund to hopefully spread around a little. In the Main Event, it is balance-balance-balance for offense and power arms on the pitching staff.
That is it. No edits.
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Rat bastard.....lol
