Anatomy of a Main Event draft - Having a Plan
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:45 pm
Like many of my brethren in this community, the Main Event is a sacred ordeal. We can draft an inordinate amount of teams over the Winter, or participate in contests for even higher stakes, but the prestige and the honor that come along with winning the supreme contest in the land is a dream that we all hope to one day achieve.
While I've been able to do well in my league standings the past few years, I haven't been able to make serious noise in the overall standings. Just like countless others, I believe that this year, that changes.
Those that know me, know that I'm the type of person who takes this hobby to an extreme level, and that my preparation goes way past obsession. My spreadsheet is ready to go with over 1000 individual player projections even before the Premature draft kicks off in October each season. Those numbers are massaged over the course of the Winter, ingesting and deciphering all of the available data that I can find, running countless projection models and valuation systems, until I'm comfortable with my values for every player.
I do several slow drafts, perhaps even a satellite or two, but everything is merely preparation for the big dance. It's once we receive our draft slot a week before the show that the real draft plan comes together. By this time, everyone knows what players he likes better than the market and who his targets should be, but the Main Event is a completely different animal from any other draft. Here, many believe that upside is king, as they try to take down the overall prize. They'll jump their guy two, three, even four rounds in some cases if they're confident in their projections and believe that he'll return a profit from that spot.
In recent years, I've become very risk averse in the early rounds of the Main Event. I don't want any players with serious injury concerns, as they always find a way to derail a potentially great season before it gets started. I head into the draft with a very clear plan of what I want to do in each round, and a clearly defined list of players that I want to select my team from. These are the players that I've become comfortable with during the six months of preparation. If a player falls on draft day, from where his ADP says he should be going, unless he's on my pre-approved list of targets, I'm not likely to bite. I'll trust my valuations and recommendations that I've spent all Winter coming up with, more than I'll trust a one minute decision while on the clock, just because a player is in a free fall.
Enough about that though, onto the draft!
There's nothing like participating in the Main Event live. I can't say enough wonderful things about what a tremendous group of people and competitors we have in Chicago. Dean and the guys do a phenomenal job making sure everything runs smoothly, and the atmosphere (regardless of where we draft) is always electric.
This year, for the first time in my life, I was the fortunate beneficiary of getting my first KDS preference, the #1 pick. This mean that I only had to develop one main draft plan, with contingencies for any scenario I could envision happening, rather than 10+ different plans based on who may fall to me in round one like most years.
1.01 - Mike Trout
I can't say enough about what a tremendous advantage I believe Trout to be over the field. I have him valued as a $56 player this year, and that's with my projections being fairly conservative in my estimation. He's a five-category monster and the perfect base for my offense. The plan now calls for me to take a pair of aces with my next two picks, looking specifically at Wainwright, Fernandez, Bumgarner, Cliff Lee and Verlander.
2.15 - Adam Wainwright
3.01 - Jose Fernandez
Things couldn't have gone better for me to this point, locking up the three players that I had targeted for these three spots coming in. I did debate moving Bumgarner ahead of Fernandez in this spot, but decided to stay true to my valuations. The hope now for rounds 4 and 5 are that I get one of Adrian Gonzalez or Joe Mauer (both whose ADP coming in were in the mid 50's), and if I can't get both to nab an elite closer, Jansen or Holland.
4.15 - Joe Mauer
5.01 - Adrian Gonzalez
I was shocked that both of my targets fell to me at this point, and that I was able to secure my top five targets in the first five rounds. With these two and Trout, I have a very strong average base, that will allow me to take a few low average, high upside options (B.J. Upton) later in the draft. Looking to the 6/7 turn, I want to lock up at least one closer (Robertson or Uehara), and potentially a second if I don't like the offensive options available (Werth).
6.15 - David Robertson
7.01 - Joe Nathan
My first "miss" of the draft, is when Uehara went off the board just a few picks before me in the sixth round, but Nathan isn't a bad consolation prize. While closers are a necessary evil in our game, my valuations show that the greatest opportunities for profit are with the upper-echelon options, and there is a ridiculous amount of value in not having to waste countless FAAB dollars chasing saves all season. This duo should keep me in the game. Looking ahead to 8/9, the predraft plan calls for Brandon Belt (who I'm extremely high on) as my corner infielder and Alfonso Soriano. Should either, or both, of them be gone I could look for a second catcher (Ramos), grab a third baseman (Headley or Sandoval), or lock up my favorite utility option (Martinez).
8.15 - Brandon Belt
9.01 - Alfonso Soriano
I literally couldn't have scripted it any better to this point, again sweating out 28 picks to get the exact two players that I coveted in this spot. Belt adds another high average bat to my offense, and still has considerable upside in my estimation. I think that locking up two top notch first baseman is a tremendous advantage, as I saw the inventory as relatively shallow at this position. I'm not counting on a full repeat from Soriano, but in the ninth round I don't need one to deliver a profit. Looking now to 10/11 my options are wide open. Martinez remains a target as my utility, and I'd like to grab my third baseman (Headley, Sandoval, Seager) in an area I've identified as great value for the position.
10.15 - Victor Martinez
11.01 - Ben Zobrist
True to form to the rest of my draft to this point, Victor Martinez fell nicely into place here. He adds to the impressive average base that I've built, and I believe that he's a near lock for 100+ RBI hitting cleanup for the Tigers. Unfortunately, my three targets at third base fell off the board before it got back to me. While I considered taking a third starter (Masterson, Dickey, Estrada), I felt Zobrist added nice flexibility which would counteract locking up my utility spot with V-Mart, and also fills my shortstop position with solid across the board production. Now in 12/13 I definitely need my third starter (hoping one of those three fall) and I'll look at my third outfielder in this range as well (B.J. Upton, Christian Yelich). If all of those options are gone, I do like Howie Kendrick as a second baseman.
12.15 - Chase Utley
13.01 - R.A. Dickey
Well, Utley wasn't part of the plan, though it was simply because I didn't anticipate him being here. He fits even better than Kendrick did at this point, since he offers more power and speed, and I have average more than covered at this point. Provided he stays somewhat healthy (which is never a certainty for him), he'll realize a nice return from this spot. To my surprise, my other four targets (Dickey, Estrada, Upton and Yelich) were all still on the board here. I hated having to choose between Dickey and Estrada, as I think both of them will severely outperform this spot. I leaned toward the veteran knuckleballer because I think he's a little more stable and should provide solid numbers in wins and strikeouts with his high innings volume. Onto 14/15, I'd love it if one of those outfielders would fall, and I have to solve third base at some point (Moustakas, Middlebrooks, Frazier?)
14.15 - B.J. Upton
15.01 - Christian Yelich
This was by far my biggest sweat of the draft. Honestly, I would've been thrilled to death if either of these outfielders made it back to me, but imagine my shock and dismay when BOTH were still available. I felt my team was in perfect shape to handle Upton's average risk, and despite his awful 2013 campaign I believe he's a lock for 40+ HR/SB this year, especially hitting second for the Braves. I've known all Winter that I'm higher on Yelich than most, but never in my wildest dreams did I think he'd be available to me here. As an OF4, this is my favorite pick of the draft. Middlebrooks went the pick before me in this round, and I felt that Moustakas had a decent chance of making it back. He's the target in 16/17 as well as my SP4 (Nova, Kazmir, Ross, Pineda). I also love Angel Pagan, and could be swayed into taking him if he makes it.
16.15 - Tyson Ross
17.01 - Nick Castellanos
These two rounds didn't go according to my dream plan, as Moustakas, Nova, Kazmir and Pineda all were grabbed before the snake made it back around to me. I was thrilled to get Tyson Ross as my fourth starter still, and would've been in a bad place had I missed there. Castellanos has upside and will qualify at third base after 10 games, though I'll now need to grab another third sacker late to cover for him (Marcus Semien perhaps). Looking to solidify my rotation with the next pair, with Erasmo Ramirez, Lincecum and Drew Hutchison squarely in play.
18.15 - Angel Pagan
19.01 - Chris Owings
It seems like my good luck from earlier in the draft has completely run out, and all of my SP targets are once again off the board when it gets back around to me. I'm thrilled to secure Angel Pagan as my fifth outfielder, as I think he's perpetually undervalued. Still needing a middle infielder, I love the potential power/speed combo that Chris Owings brings to the table. I know that I should've stuck to grabbing my SP5 here, I just didn't like the options on the board enough (Lackey) to pull the trigger. I'll address that for sure at the next turn.
20.15 - John Lackey
21.01 - Derek Jeter
Not taking a pitcher at 18/19 didn't backfire on me, as Lackey was still the top SP option on my board. I think he represents a nice profit opportunity this late. Jeter makes for a solid backup middle infielder, and since this was before the official news that Owings would be the starting shortstop for the D'Backs, he made for a nice insurance policy. Here's to hoping that Brandon Morrow or Hector Santiago make it back to me at 22/23, if they both go, I'm very high on Jesse Chavez as well. I almost gambled on the power/speed combo of Justin Ruggiano in this spot, since I have him valued as a 17th rounder or better, but couldn't justify taking my sixth outfielder over the other needs.
22.15 - Justin Ruggiano
23.01 - Jenrry Mejia
I probably got a little too cute by going off the board with the Jeter pick in Round 21 and it cost me, as Morrow, Santiago and Chavez all went in the eight picks before me. I was amazed to see Ruggiano still there, and gladly took what I perceived to be phenomenal bench depth. I had just seen that Mejia was named the fifth starter for the Mets, so he was an easy pick with my other options off the board. I still need a second catcher, so I'm looking for Grandal, Josmil Pinto or Derek Norris to make it back around.
24.15 - Yasmani Grandal
25.01 - Marcus Semien
Thrilled to get both of these players here. Love Grandal, and think he'll be a solid second catcher, and Semien is playing full-time to begin the season, covers Castellanos and could win either the second or third base job for the White Sox, which would provide valuable depth and flexibility for me.
26.15 - Erik Johnson
27.01 - Mitch Moreland
Waited a long time to grab my seventh starter, and still think I did very well with the spot. I generally stream a good amount of starters during the early part of the season, but Johnson's K's should have value for me. Moreland was simply an effort to add some power from a (nearly) everyday player on my bench.
28.15 - Brian Wilson
29.01 - Jackie Bradley Jr.
30.15 - Bronson Arroyo
Not much to see here. I wanted to grab a perfect inning and a couple of K's from Wilson, and got burned by the Sunday night debacle. Bradley I snagged just because I saw that Victorino was heading for an MRI. Arroyo was merely the top SP remaining on my board at the time, but I don't expect he'll ever see significant innings for me.
All in all, I think that I executed my draft plan extremely well and feel very good about this squad as a whole. My deficiencies on offense could be second catcher, third base and middle infield, but I have significant upside at all three positions.
On the pitching side, I know that I'm one solid starter short of where I need to be, but I think that Wainwright and Fernandez help to make up for that. I feel that one of my strengths is the ability to find starters in season, and since I locked down what I feel are two elite closers, I should have excess FAAB to help in that pursuit.
A quick view as a finished product:
C - Joe Mauer (4.15)
C - Yasmani Grandal (24.15)
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (5.01)
2B - Chase Utley (12.15)
SS - Ben Zobrist (11.01)
3B - Nick Castellanos (once he qualifies) (17.01)
MI - Chris Owings (19.01)
CI - Brandon Belt (8.15)
OF - Mike Trout (1.01)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (9.01)
OF - B.J. Upton (14.15)
OF - Christian Yelich (15.01)
OF - Angel Pagan (18.15)
UTIL - Victor Martinez (10.15)
SP - Adam Wainwright (2.15)
SP - Jose Fernandez (3.01)
SP - R.A. Dickey (13.01)
SP - Tyson Ross (16.15)
SP - John Lackey (20.15)
SP - Jenrry Mejia (23.01)
SP - Erik Johnson (26.15)
RP - David Robertson (6.15)
RP - Joe Nathan (7.01)
Bench - Justin Ruggiano (22.15)
Bench - Derek Jeter (21.01)
Bench - Marcus Semien (25.01)
Bench - Mitch Moreland (27.01)
Bench - Brian Wilson (28.15)
Bench - Jackie Bradley Jr. (29.01)
Bench - Bronson Arroyo (30.01)
I know this is long-winded and rambling, so anyone who stuck around to read it, I salute you and would love to hear your thoughts on this team and the process.
While I've been able to do well in my league standings the past few years, I haven't been able to make serious noise in the overall standings. Just like countless others, I believe that this year, that changes.
Those that know me, know that I'm the type of person who takes this hobby to an extreme level, and that my preparation goes way past obsession. My spreadsheet is ready to go with over 1000 individual player projections even before the Premature draft kicks off in October each season. Those numbers are massaged over the course of the Winter, ingesting and deciphering all of the available data that I can find, running countless projection models and valuation systems, until I'm comfortable with my values for every player.
I do several slow drafts, perhaps even a satellite or two, but everything is merely preparation for the big dance. It's once we receive our draft slot a week before the show that the real draft plan comes together. By this time, everyone knows what players he likes better than the market and who his targets should be, but the Main Event is a completely different animal from any other draft. Here, many believe that upside is king, as they try to take down the overall prize. They'll jump their guy two, three, even four rounds in some cases if they're confident in their projections and believe that he'll return a profit from that spot.
In recent years, I've become very risk averse in the early rounds of the Main Event. I don't want any players with serious injury concerns, as they always find a way to derail a potentially great season before it gets started. I head into the draft with a very clear plan of what I want to do in each round, and a clearly defined list of players that I want to select my team from. These are the players that I've become comfortable with during the six months of preparation. If a player falls on draft day, from where his ADP says he should be going, unless he's on my pre-approved list of targets, I'm not likely to bite. I'll trust my valuations and recommendations that I've spent all Winter coming up with, more than I'll trust a one minute decision while on the clock, just because a player is in a free fall.
Enough about that though, onto the draft!
There's nothing like participating in the Main Event live. I can't say enough wonderful things about what a tremendous group of people and competitors we have in Chicago. Dean and the guys do a phenomenal job making sure everything runs smoothly, and the atmosphere (regardless of where we draft) is always electric.
This year, for the first time in my life, I was the fortunate beneficiary of getting my first KDS preference, the #1 pick. This mean that I only had to develop one main draft plan, with contingencies for any scenario I could envision happening, rather than 10+ different plans based on who may fall to me in round one like most years.
1.01 - Mike Trout
I can't say enough about what a tremendous advantage I believe Trout to be over the field. I have him valued as a $56 player this year, and that's with my projections being fairly conservative in my estimation. He's a five-category monster and the perfect base for my offense. The plan now calls for me to take a pair of aces with my next two picks, looking specifically at Wainwright, Fernandez, Bumgarner, Cliff Lee and Verlander.
2.15 - Adam Wainwright
3.01 - Jose Fernandez
Things couldn't have gone better for me to this point, locking up the three players that I had targeted for these three spots coming in. I did debate moving Bumgarner ahead of Fernandez in this spot, but decided to stay true to my valuations. The hope now for rounds 4 and 5 are that I get one of Adrian Gonzalez or Joe Mauer (both whose ADP coming in were in the mid 50's), and if I can't get both to nab an elite closer, Jansen or Holland.
4.15 - Joe Mauer
5.01 - Adrian Gonzalez
I was shocked that both of my targets fell to me at this point, and that I was able to secure my top five targets in the first five rounds. With these two and Trout, I have a very strong average base, that will allow me to take a few low average, high upside options (B.J. Upton) later in the draft. Looking to the 6/7 turn, I want to lock up at least one closer (Robertson or Uehara), and potentially a second if I don't like the offensive options available (Werth).
6.15 - David Robertson
7.01 - Joe Nathan
My first "miss" of the draft, is when Uehara went off the board just a few picks before me in the sixth round, but Nathan isn't a bad consolation prize. While closers are a necessary evil in our game, my valuations show that the greatest opportunities for profit are with the upper-echelon options, and there is a ridiculous amount of value in not having to waste countless FAAB dollars chasing saves all season. This duo should keep me in the game. Looking ahead to 8/9, the predraft plan calls for Brandon Belt (who I'm extremely high on) as my corner infielder and Alfonso Soriano. Should either, or both, of them be gone I could look for a second catcher (Ramos), grab a third baseman (Headley or Sandoval), or lock up my favorite utility option (Martinez).
8.15 - Brandon Belt
9.01 - Alfonso Soriano
I literally couldn't have scripted it any better to this point, again sweating out 28 picks to get the exact two players that I coveted in this spot. Belt adds another high average bat to my offense, and still has considerable upside in my estimation. I think that locking up two top notch first baseman is a tremendous advantage, as I saw the inventory as relatively shallow at this position. I'm not counting on a full repeat from Soriano, but in the ninth round I don't need one to deliver a profit. Looking now to 10/11 my options are wide open. Martinez remains a target as my utility, and I'd like to grab my third baseman (Headley, Sandoval, Seager) in an area I've identified as great value for the position.
10.15 - Victor Martinez
11.01 - Ben Zobrist
True to form to the rest of my draft to this point, Victor Martinez fell nicely into place here. He adds to the impressive average base that I've built, and I believe that he's a near lock for 100+ RBI hitting cleanup for the Tigers. Unfortunately, my three targets at third base fell off the board before it got back to me. While I considered taking a third starter (Masterson, Dickey, Estrada), I felt Zobrist added nice flexibility which would counteract locking up my utility spot with V-Mart, and also fills my shortstop position with solid across the board production. Now in 12/13 I definitely need my third starter (hoping one of those three fall) and I'll look at my third outfielder in this range as well (B.J. Upton, Christian Yelich). If all of those options are gone, I do like Howie Kendrick as a second baseman.
12.15 - Chase Utley
13.01 - R.A. Dickey
Well, Utley wasn't part of the plan, though it was simply because I didn't anticipate him being here. He fits even better than Kendrick did at this point, since he offers more power and speed, and I have average more than covered at this point. Provided he stays somewhat healthy (which is never a certainty for him), he'll realize a nice return from this spot. To my surprise, my other four targets (Dickey, Estrada, Upton and Yelich) were all still on the board here. I hated having to choose between Dickey and Estrada, as I think both of them will severely outperform this spot. I leaned toward the veteran knuckleballer because I think he's a little more stable and should provide solid numbers in wins and strikeouts with his high innings volume. Onto 14/15, I'd love it if one of those outfielders would fall, and I have to solve third base at some point (Moustakas, Middlebrooks, Frazier?)
14.15 - B.J. Upton
15.01 - Christian Yelich
This was by far my biggest sweat of the draft. Honestly, I would've been thrilled to death if either of these outfielders made it back to me, but imagine my shock and dismay when BOTH were still available. I felt my team was in perfect shape to handle Upton's average risk, and despite his awful 2013 campaign I believe he's a lock for 40+ HR/SB this year, especially hitting second for the Braves. I've known all Winter that I'm higher on Yelich than most, but never in my wildest dreams did I think he'd be available to me here. As an OF4, this is my favorite pick of the draft. Middlebrooks went the pick before me in this round, and I felt that Moustakas had a decent chance of making it back. He's the target in 16/17 as well as my SP4 (Nova, Kazmir, Ross, Pineda). I also love Angel Pagan, and could be swayed into taking him if he makes it.
16.15 - Tyson Ross
17.01 - Nick Castellanos
These two rounds didn't go according to my dream plan, as Moustakas, Nova, Kazmir and Pineda all were grabbed before the snake made it back around to me. I was thrilled to get Tyson Ross as my fourth starter still, and would've been in a bad place had I missed there. Castellanos has upside and will qualify at third base after 10 games, though I'll now need to grab another third sacker late to cover for him (Marcus Semien perhaps). Looking to solidify my rotation with the next pair, with Erasmo Ramirez, Lincecum and Drew Hutchison squarely in play.
18.15 - Angel Pagan
19.01 - Chris Owings
It seems like my good luck from earlier in the draft has completely run out, and all of my SP targets are once again off the board when it gets back around to me. I'm thrilled to secure Angel Pagan as my fifth outfielder, as I think he's perpetually undervalued. Still needing a middle infielder, I love the potential power/speed combo that Chris Owings brings to the table. I know that I should've stuck to grabbing my SP5 here, I just didn't like the options on the board enough (Lackey) to pull the trigger. I'll address that for sure at the next turn.
20.15 - John Lackey
21.01 - Derek Jeter
Not taking a pitcher at 18/19 didn't backfire on me, as Lackey was still the top SP option on my board. I think he represents a nice profit opportunity this late. Jeter makes for a solid backup middle infielder, and since this was before the official news that Owings would be the starting shortstop for the D'Backs, he made for a nice insurance policy. Here's to hoping that Brandon Morrow or Hector Santiago make it back to me at 22/23, if they both go, I'm very high on Jesse Chavez as well. I almost gambled on the power/speed combo of Justin Ruggiano in this spot, since I have him valued as a 17th rounder or better, but couldn't justify taking my sixth outfielder over the other needs.
22.15 - Justin Ruggiano
23.01 - Jenrry Mejia
I probably got a little too cute by going off the board with the Jeter pick in Round 21 and it cost me, as Morrow, Santiago and Chavez all went in the eight picks before me. I was amazed to see Ruggiano still there, and gladly took what I perceived to be phenomenal bench depth. I had just seen that Mejia was named the fifth starter for the Mets, so he was an easy pick with my other options off the board. I still need a second catcher, so I'm looking for Grandal, Josmil Pinto or Derek Norris to make it back around.
24.15 - Yasmani Grandal
25.01 - Marcus Semien
Thrilled to get both of these players here. Love Grandal, and think he'll be a solid second catcher, and Semien is playing full-time to begin the season, covers Castellanos and could win either the second or third base job for the White Sox, which would provide valuable depth and flexibility for me.
26.15 - Erik Johnson
27.01 - Mitch Moreland
Waited a long time to grab my seventh starter, and still think I did very well with the spot. I generally stream a good amount of starters during the early part of the season, but Johnson's K's should have value for me. Moreland was simply an effort to add some power from a (nearly) everyday player on my bench.
28.15 - Brian Wilson
29.01 - Jackie Bradley Jr.
30.15 - Bronson Arroyo
Not much to see here. I wanted to grab a perfect inning and a couple of K's from Wilson, and got burned by the Sunday night debacle. Bradley I snagged just because I saw that Victorino was heading for an MRI. Arroyo was merely the top SP remaining on my board at the time, but I don't expect he'll ever see significant innings for me.
All in all, I think that I executed my draft plan extremely well and feel very good about this squad as a whole. My deficiencies on offense could be second catcher, third base and middle infield, but I have significant upside at all three positions.
On the pitching side, I know that I'm one solid starter short of where I need to be, but I think that Wainwright and Fernandez help to make up for that. I feel that one of my strengths is the ability to find starters in season, and since I locked down what I feel are two elite closers, I should have excess FAAB to help in that pursuit.
A quick view as a finished product:
C - Joe Mauer (4.15)
C - Yasmani Grandal (24.15)
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (5.01)
2B - Chase Utley (12.15)
SS - Ben Zobrist (11.01)
3B - Nick Castellanos (once he qualifies) (17.01)
MI - Chris Owings (19.01)
CI - Brandon Belt (8.15)
OF - Mike Trout (1.01)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (9.01)
OF - B.J. Upton (14.15)
OF - Christian Yelich (15.01)
OF - Angel Pagan (18.15)
UTIL - Victor Martinez (10.15)
SP - Adam Wainwright (2.15)
SP - Jose Fernandez (3.01)
SP - R.A. Dickey (13.01)
SP - Tyson Ross (16.15)
SP - John Lackey (20.15)
SP - Jenrry Mejia (23.01)
SP - Erik Johnson (26.15)
RP - David Robertson (6.15)
RP - Joe Nathan (7.01)
Bench - Justin Ruggiano (22.15)
Bench - Derek Jeter (21.01)
Bench - Marcus Semien (25.01)
Bench - Mitch Moreland (27.01)
Bench - Brian Wilson (28.15)
Bench - Jackie Bradley Jr. (29.01)
Bench - Bronson Arroyo (30.01)
I know this is long-winded and rambling, so anyone who stuck around to read it, I salute you and would love to hear your thoughts on this team and the process.
