Reward vs. Risk: Who's To Blame?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Tonight on our STATS Fantasy Advantage show on SiriusXM, Tom and I are going to analyze the injury situation in Major League Baseball and determine who's to blame for our injury riddled fantasy teams. Do we deserve any of the blame for taking too much Risk on certain players? Or is it easier to blame the game, blame the players, blame the damn bases that get in the way of head-first slides, blame management? We have some great DL data from STATS that we'll air on the show and then post on this thread tomorrow morning.

Has 2014 been any different when it comes to injuries than last year or the three previous years? Well, it's been bad, but not the worst that we've seen. Still, one position stands out as having more injuries than at any time in the last five years and we're feeling that pain. We'll discuss tonight.

We'd love to get your feedback on this if you want to call into the show tonight: 888-XM FANTASY or at 888-963-2682. We will analyze the Risk we all took in this year's baseball drafts and even analyze the Risk that awaits us in upcoming fantasy football drafts. If you think we gambled on players in baseball, wait until you see what is ahead in football: Ray Rice, C.J. Spiller, Rob Gronkowski, Arian Foster, etc. Where do we draw the line and say, there's too much Risk there to draft him?

And yet, Risk is how you win fantasy titles. Was Jose Abreu a risky pick? Absolutely. Was Albert Pujols a risky pick? Absolutely. No Pain, No Gain, they say. But at what point is the Risk too great? That's what we'll discuss tonight and we invite you to join us on the air for this segment at 10:15 pm ET.

NFBC veteran Rob Giese of Shelby Township, Michigan will also be with us tonight at 11 pm ET. We'll also have two segments of fantasy football starting at 11:30 pm ET. Should be a fun night.

We'll air any solid posts on this thread too, so give us your opinions of Reward vs. Risk and we'll read them on the air. Thanks all.

[Gekko]

Solid post here.

As it relates to playing fantasy baseball...I like games postponed by weather. I like blind FAAB. I like injuries.

Those are some of the obstacles that pop up during the season that test the skill and patience of fantasy owners. Most owners bitch and worry about these things, while astute owners are utilizing that time to improve their teams.

You either get it done or you don't. No one cares why an owner wasn't successful. Free your mind

[GetALife]

Solid post here.

As it relates to playing fantasy baseball...I like games postponed by weather. I like blind FAAB. I like injuries.

Those are some of the obstacles that pop up during the season that test the skill and patience of fantasy owners. Most owners bitch and worry about these things, while astute owners are utilizing that time to improve their teams.

You either get it done or you don't. No one cares why an owner wasn't successful. Free your mind

Thanks for the originality "Mr. Matrix: Professional Fantasy Baseball Guy"!

[Gekko]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Jtz4Tzr9WJk

[COZ]

By way of blame for the rash of injuries to pitchers and the high number of TJ surgeries, I heard an interesting explanation by Steve Stone on Sports Talk radio here in Chicago which I had never heard before. He blamed the slider, specifically that the pitch is thrown harder and much more violently now than in the past. Originally, the slider, as he explained, was designed to look like a fastball but then have a 6-inch or so break to it that tailed off from the batter. But now, it has become like a curveball or slurve, with an 18-inch break which requires a more violent arm action. Jose Fernandez throws one of the nastiest sliders with a good 18-inch slide. Will be interesting to see how his arm holds up. Thought this was an interesting and original explanation.

COZ

[Edwards Kings]

By way of blame for the rash of injuries to pitchers and the high number of TJ surgeries, I heard an interesting explanation by Steve Stone on Sports Talk radio here in Chicago which I had never heard before. He blamed the slider, specifically that the pitch is thrown harder and much more violently now than in the past. Originally, the slider, as he explained, was designed to look like a fastball but then have a 6-inch or so break to it that tailed off from the batter. But now, it has become like a curveball or slurve, with an 18-inch break which requires a more violent arm action. Jose Fernandez throws one of the nastiest sliders with a good 18-inch slide. Will be interesting to see how his arm holds up. Thought this was an interesting and original explanation.

COZ

So based on Stone's theory, pitchers who throw the most sliders would be the pitchers most at risk...interesting. Very interesting.

[Navel Lint]

By way of blame for the rash of injuries to pitchers and the high number of TJ surgeries, I heard an interesting explanation by Steve Stone on Sports Talk radio here in Chicago which I had never heard before. He blamed the slider, specifically that the pitch is thrown harder and much more violently now than in the past. Originally, the slider, as he explained, was designed to look like a fastball but then have a 6-inch or so break to it that tailed off from the batter. But now, it has become like a curveball or slurve, with an 18-inch break which requires a more violent arm action. Jose Fernandez throws one of the nastiest sliders with a good 18-inch slide. Will be interesting to see how his arm holds up. Thought this was an interesting and original explanation.

COZ

So based on Stone's theory, pitchers who throw the most sliders would be the pitchers most at risk...interesting. Very interesting.

I did not hear Stone's interview, but I know he has been talking about this sort of thing in the past.

During his days as a Cubs broadcaster Stone was critical of Kerry Wood for not only throwing a "slurve", but more so on the way he threw it, that being hard across his body. (side note: Stone's harsh criticism of Wood and M Alou "on-air" eventually lead to his leaving the Cubs broadcast team)

After Stone left the Cubs he became even harder on Wood, consistently questioning why someone with elbow problems would continue to throw a pitch that was making his elbow worse. Eventually Wood did give up on the big slurve, but it was too late.

Stone always felt his own career was ended by the curveball. In 1980 Stone went all-in on the curveball, throwing it nearly half the time. It helped him win 25 games and the Cy Young, but it also killed his elbow. The next season his elbow was shot and he had to retire from the game.

[Sack]

Gekko:

Solid thoughts Mark, I agree.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Last night on the STATS Fantasy Advantage we showed how injuries have affected the fantasy baseball landscape. The number of times that players have been added to the DL list through April 29th is the second highest total since 2009, according to STATS LLC, but it's still less than last year. Here are the totals:

Times Using the Disabled List Through April 29th Each Season
2009 - 148
2010 - 141
2011 - 166
2012 - 154
2013 - 184
2014 - 171

The one position that has been hit the hardest has been Pitching, as we all knew. Here's the totals for just pitchers:

Times Using the Disabled List Through April 29th Each Season For Pitchers
2009 - 83
2010 - 81
2011 - 91
2012 - 85
2013 - 94
2014 - 101

And just for fun, we wanted to blame the weather for the increase in injuries and bad offense, so we looked at game time temperatures for the month of April. It's cool that STATS has this data since 1990. This is already the third coldest April, but again trailing 2013:

Coldest Average Game-Time Temperature In April, Since 1990
1997 - 61.4
23013 - 61.9
2014 - 62.1
2007 - 62.1

Interesting numbers, for sure.

[Bronx Yankees]

Greg - Very interesting that there were more DL trips in April last year than this year. For some reason, it sure doesn't seem like it. Perhaps with so many pitchers going down, folks (including myself) haven't realized that things were not so bad for non-pitchers.

Mike

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg - Very interesting that there were more DL trips in April last year than this year. For some reason, it sure doesn't seem like it. Perhaps with so many pitchers going down, folks (including myself) haven't realized that things were not so bad for non-pitchers.

Mike

Agreed. The only other position where there were more DL trips in 2014 than 2013 was outfielders -- 28 this year compared to 22 in 2013. Every other position had fewer DL trips in April 2014 compared to last April.

I think it's the number of season-ending injuries this year that have affected how we view injuries now, plus the injuries to big stars. But it was important to get the facts and to see if this year really was worse than anything we've seen in the last 6 years. It is bad this year, no doubt, but not as bad as last year and not appreciably worse than the four years before that.

[Gekko]

Greg,

Does STATS keep a record of the # of tissues used by nfbc owners? This year would be an all time high!

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

Does STATS keep a record of the # of tissues used by nfbc owners? This year would be an all time high!

Who opened your cage? I thought we had you penned in for the last two years!!

[Navel Lint]

By way of blame for the rash of injuries to pitchers and the high number of TJ surgeries, I heard an interesting explanation by Steve Stone on Sports Talk radio here in Chicago which I had never heard before. He blamed the slider, specifically that the pitch is thrown harder and much more violently now than in the past. Originally, the slider, as he explained, was designed to look like a fastball but then have a 6-inch or so break to it that tailed off from the batter. But now, it has become like a curveball or slurve, with an 18-inch break which requires a more violent arm action. Jose Fernandez throws one of the nastiest sliders with a good 18-inch slide. Will be interesting to see how his arm holds up. Thought this was an interesting and original explanation.

COZ

13 days

[Chthroop]

Good call coz

[COZ]

HA. Wish I could say I was that prescient and smart. All I know is hard-slider-throwing pitchers will always be more at risk than other pitchers for TJ surgery. Will Kimbrel be next?

COZ

[Edwards Kings]

Will Kimbrel be next?

I cannot believe you even put that out there in the universe for consideration...hush your mouth!

[headhunters]

dear kings- do you watch those braves games at all? i own kimbrel and will continue to buy- even though i know it is only a matter of time. the braves are already watching his usage very closely. wood is probably the closer when kimbrel has tjs.

[NorCalAtlFan]

head, do YOU watch the braves? if kimbrel goes down, the idiot running the team will just as likely use gavin floyd as the closer. because the next prudent move he makes will be his first.

[headhunters]

gotta laugh at that. ya- man he is just awful. you have to wonder if he or the gm or the owner is managing that team.

[Edwards Kings]

Doughboy's says it ain't gonna happen, and he is my friend, and he would not lie to me...so SHUT UP!

If anything happens to Kimbrel (not his elbow...like dropping a rock on his foot gardening or something benign like that), Fredi would probably go with Carpenter first.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ha! I didn't say it wouldn't happen. I just said it's too easy to select Kimbrel as the next player to go down.
This being said, I'll expect bad news tonight

Like Mike and Bryan, I wonder who really is running the Braves on the field.
A Managers first rule is to put players in a position to succeed.
Nobody has failed at that more than Fredi.

[Captain Hook]

Anyone really interested in the pitching injuries (especially those with young boy or planning on them) should watch the MLB Network Roundtable: The Pitching Dilemma which will re-air this Saturday

I put all the information in a new thread