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... at the halfway point.

Billy Hamilton (72 gms)
BA • 270
R+RBI • 63
SB+HR • 35
CURRENT STAT VALUE = Late 1st round/early 2nd round

Dee Gordon (74 gms)
BA • 276
R+RBI • 67
SB+HR • 42
CURRENT STAT VALUE = Mid-1st round

This is interesting. Our Question on our show last night was "Where do you think Billy Hamilton will go in next year's draft?" Chris Liss of Rotowire.com responded that he thought late second round. Tom and I both said late second round to early third round, but if he went there then Dee Gordon has to go before him. It will be interesting to see where they both go next year. Is it time to draft yet?

I'm putting together a 2-3 round second half mock for my next KFFL Round Table column. I'm really curious where BHam and Gordon go.

All that shows is that there is something wrong with how SB are valued by whatever rater-system has them providing that value.

Hells Satans wrote:All that shows is that there is something wrong with how SB are valued by whatever rater-system has them providing that value.

Agree completely. The amount of homeruns and rbi given up by taking Billy or Dee in the second round is tough to make up later in my opinion. I hope both are first round picks next year!

I guess part of the answer depends on how confident you are that Hamilton and Gordon's performance will remain the same, or improve, next year. Looks like Hamilton is the Reds' long-term CF and as long as he can hit decently, should remain atop the lineup. Is Gordon the Dodgers' long-term 2B or are they just waiting until he slumps to bring up Guererro? Is Gordon likely to be moved to SS next year if Hanley departs via free agency?

I'm somewhat skeptical that either will keep up their current batting averages, but both already exceeded my expectations in that department, so what the hell do I know? I do know I wish I had one of those guys on a whole bunch of my teams right about now.

Mike

Hells Satans wrote:All that shows is that there is something wrong with how SB are valued by whatever rater-system has them providing that value.

Bob - if you or JP think SBs are worth significantly less than that, I'd love to see the statistical support for how you get to that. The answer is that I use my own valuation which is custom-tailored to NFBC 15-teamers. It's statistically sound and it's usually pretty close to what Todd comes up when I've looked at his dollar value data in past years.

Greg Ambrosius wrote:This is interesting. Our Question on our show last night was "Where do you think Billy Hamilton will go in next year's draft?" Chris Liss of Rotowire.com responded that he thought late second round. Tom and I both said late second round to early third round, but if he went there then Dee Gordon has to go before him. It will be interesting to see where they both go next year. Is it time to draft yet?

Throw out Hamilton's slow start and Dee's scorching start, and BHam could reasonably be expected to catch if not surpass Dee this year in value, but it will probably be close if both stay healthy.

Next year, I'd give the edge to BHam if they end up close to each other given the age/experience differential; Billy should be on a sharper curve up.

@ the 15/16 turn if both keep up what they are doing now

KJ Duke wrote:

Hells Satans wrote:All that shows is that there is something wrong with how SB are valued by whatever rater-system has them providing that value.

Bob - if you or JP think SBs are worth significantly less than that, I'd love to see the statistical support for how you get to that. The answer is that I use my own valuation which is custom-tailored to NFBC 15-teamers. It's statistically sound and it's usually pretty close to what Todd comes up when I've looked at his dollar value data in past years.

I'm not sure that I'm statistically savvy enough to meaningfully demonstrate that (and I'm sure your valuation is correct), but my view is that the uneven distribution of SB leads to an overvaluing of high-SB guys. Most of it has to do with the way points are awarded in rotisserie leagues and how that affects team-building. Some of it is the unitary nature of the SB. When I get more time, I'll try to be articulate about it.

I can't argue with not wanting to build around 1-trick ponies, and I think it's a good idea to build structure according to your strengths and managing style ... but from a pure value standpoint, it's fairly straightforward to come up with discrete values for each roto stat to determine relative player value/rank in hindsight. Even easier when comparing hitter vs hitter only.

KJ Duke wrote:

Hells Satans wrote:All that shows is that there is something wrong with how SB are valued by whatever rater-system has them providing that value.

Bob - if you or JP think SBs are worth significantly less than that, I'd love to see the statistical support for how you get to that. The answer is that I use my own valuation which is custom-tailored to NFBC 15-teamers. It's statistically sound and it's usually pretty close to what Todd comes up when I've looked at his dollar value data in past years.

I know better than to go against you or Zola with stats. I guess I am just saying that I feel that if I took a Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon that high, I would feel like I would be behind the 8-ball the rest of the way chasing the power numbers. Everyone has their own style I suppose. Didn't mean to refute the math / science although very surprised that the KJ Fantasy Algorithm spat that number out.

Putting Gordon's and Hamiton's stats into my formula's I get an unadjusted dollar value of 30 for Gordon and 23 for Hamilton.
That would certainly put Gordon in the top 25 if he continued that pace and hamiton would fall in the 40 to 60 range.

Bama wrote:Putting Gordon's and Hamiton's stats into my formula's I get an unadjusted dollar value of 30 for Gordon and 23 for Hamilton.
That would certainly put Gordon in the top 25 if he continued that pace and hamiton would fall in the 40 to 60 range.

Mine are a little higher, but that's in the ballpark Ken ... I haven't looked to see where that would fall on YTD for the entire player pool, just going off of where I'd expect those values to be assuming they keep it up for the entire year. No doubt a lot of guys right now with half-season values will fall off the pace.

JohnP wrote: I know better than to go against you or Zola with stats. I guess I am just saying that I feel that if I took a Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon that high, I would feel like I would be behind the 8-ball the rest of the way chasing the power numbers. Everyone has their own style I suppose. Didn't mean to refute the math / science although very surprised that the KJ Fantasy Algorithm spat that number out.

You're in good company - yourself, Bob and I'd bet Dough being a skeptic too. There's definitely an art to team structure and some owners won't buy in to these types no matter what the number says unless there's a steep discount. I have no problem with the Hamilton types, but I'm that way with the Brandon Moss/ Adam Dunn types and will go against my own numbers to avoid them.

KJ: Have your or someone else done an analysis of how the NFBC Draft market values speed $$?

It's one thing to say Hamilton or Gordon is providing $30 of value. It's another thing to say that you should spend $30 for it (or the equivalent of a $30 draft spot). My guess is you can buy a $1 of speed value in the draft for much less than $1.

Fascinating, really.
Hamilton and Gordon bring something to the table that no other players do....Although Jose Altuve is also making a strong case to be included in this small group.
Some think that stolen bases are similar to Saves on the pitching side of Roto. Although it may be the same in that it is one category dominated by a select few, the similarities stop there.
Craig Kimbrel could be the most dominant Closer in the world, but he is restrained by his team giving him opportunities for Saves.
Thieves like Hamilton and Gordon have no limitations. they can steal 100 bases, 60 or 70 more than some of their staunchest competition. No matter how well Kimbrel pitches, at most, he will only get a few more Saves than his stiffest competition.
And Kimbrel will go in the third or fourth round.
So, why not Hamilton or Gordon in the first or second round, using this line of thinking?

For me, it is justifiable, but it won't be me taking them that high. No matter how well Gordon or Hamilton master a category, it is just that...A category.
I'm with the majority that would like to see four or five category players considered before a one trick pony. And although Hamilton and Gordon, and even Kimbrel contribute in other categories, for the most part, they are one trick ponies.
A home run hitter like Abreu, Cruz, or Encarnacion will get more love because a big home run hitter is seen as automatically a three category player.
The debate will go on in whether it is better to build a team with a pairing of Encarnacion/Hamilton or a pairing of Trout/Rios.
Some will like a pairing of the former more because it gives them the best in categories.
Some will like a pairing of the latter because they dig getting all categories in two players.

If Gordon and Hamilton finish with 80-100 stolen bases, they absolutely will be taken in the first two-three rounds next year.
They afford fantasy players a foreseen victory in one category. If able to navigate a draft for the other nine categories, with one category already seemingly in pocket, drafters feel an advantage.
BUT, there is one thing that Hamilton and Gordon don't have that Craig Kimbrel does have.
A track record.
Drafters of Kimbrel are secure in that he has never had a serious injury and that he has always been a top Saves getter.
Kimbrel gets three outs, then disappears for a few days. His chance of injury lessened.
Even with Tommy John disease spreading among pitchers, Closers seem a little less susceptible than Starters.

Hamilton and Gordon are like gazelles. They're in constant motion. In the wild, a gazelles movement invites predators.
The same thing happens in fantasy baseball.
The predator in the wild is a lion.
The predator in baseball is injury.

A drafter taking Alex Rios in the second round, would of course be hurt by an injury. He would move somebody from the bench or a faab a player in order to recover some of Rios stats.
A drafter taking Billy Hamilton, would be devastated by an injury. He had a foreseen 14 or 15 points in the stolen base category. He drafted his team with the thought that one category was 'in hand'.
There is nobody on his bench or faab that can approach the speed in that category.
Yes, Hamilton and Gordon are justifiable in the first rounds.
It'll just take somebody with more fortitude than I to draft them.

Hells Satans wrote:KJ: Have your or someone else done an analysis of how the NFBC Draft market values speed $$?

It's one thing to say Hamilton or Gordon is providing $30 of value. It's another thing to say that you should spend $30 for it (or the equivalent of a $30 draft spot). My guess is you can buy a $1 of speed value in the draft for much less than $1.

Good point, Bob. I have only anecdotal evidence to suggest speed is fairly valued ... watching where guys gets drafted and having dollar values in front of me, I haven't noticed any systemic bias against speed players. Of course, it takes only 1 guy in each draft to skew an ADP in a way that maybe the other 14 guys in the draft would not, so that's far from perfect.

Next year's drafts will be telling, assuming both of these guys finish strong and are healthy heading into next season. At that point they'll have a track record. This year Hamilton was discounted for having no major league track record and the question of whether he could hit for something close to a neutral BA (or even enough to stick around). But he was still going in rds 3-5 late in the draft season, so I'd be shocked IF he finishes as he's started if he didn't have an ADP of at least mid-round 2 with Gordon potentially close behind him.

... Interesting commentary as always Dough. I partially agree on your points about losing a one-cat player, but I would counter that with the fact that for my BHam teams I did not try to draft an all-in type of team with no "other" speed. I still went for balance with the knowledge that if BHam is on a 100 SB pace and I have an un-catchable category lead he could be benched in favor of power at any time. Likewise, if he gets hurt at some point what I lose in SBs I then have an opportunity to make up points elsewhere by plugging in a different type of player. So long as you have FAAB, there's always time to adjust to a curveball.

Agreed Kevin.
When drafting next year, I would prefer that a below average fantasy player take the leap on Hamilton and Gordon.
The less experienced player would have a harder time in incorporating Hamilton and Gordon's skills in a draft strategy.
However, I would flinch a bit were they in a good players hands.

Sorry, late to the dance.

I agree with what was ultimately concluded - this is more a strategic issue than valuation issue. It's a great reminder that a cheat sheet generated from dollar values isn't all that great an idea.

I'm much more likely to take a Hamilton or Gordon type in an auction since it's easier to partner up the necessary mostly power hitters with the speedster to attain the overall balance desired. In fact, sometimes the one-trick ponies go for a discount in an auction.

Anyway...

For entertainment purposes only, here's my top-30 HITTERS in a 15-team mixer based on dollar values through Friday's games.

1) Giancarlo Stanton 40
2) Mike Trout 39
3) Jose Altuve 38
4) Dee Gordon 37
5) Edwin Encarnacion 36
6) Nelson Cruz 35
7) Troy Tulowitzki 35
8) Michael Brantley 34
9) Paul Goldschmidt 34
10) Todd Frazier 33
11) Charlie Blackmon 33
12) Victor Martinez 32
13) Carlos Gomez 32
14) Andrew McCutchen 32
15) Jose Abreu 31
16) Billy Hamilton 30
17) Miguel Cabrera 29
18) Brian Dozier 29
19) Jose Bautista 29
20) Ian Kinsler 27
21) Adam Jones 27
22) Melky Cabrera 26
23) Josh Donaldson 26
24) Jonathan Lucroy 26
25) Anthony Rizzo 26
26) Yasiel Puig 25
27) Hunter Pence 25
28) Jacoby Ellsbury 25
29) Alexei Ramirez 24
30) Brett Gardner 24