A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post Reply
The Lollygaggers
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by The Lollygaggers » Thu Sep 07, 2006 6:40 am

In 1985, 26-year-old Rickey Henderson – already in his seventh major league season – put up the following statistics: 80 SB, 24 HR, 146 runs, .314 avg, 72 RBI. 1985 capped a four-year run for Henderson in which the young superstar:

1) averaged 96 SB and 121 runs per year,

2) showed consistent growth in batting average every year, and

3) dramatically improved his power each year (Henderson’s slugging percentage exploded from .382 in 1982 to .516 in 1985.)



What would you have bid for Rickey Henderson at your 1986 fantasy auction? If the NFBC had existed in 1986, isn’t it obvious that the guy who took Henderson at #1 would have a measurable advantage over whoever drafted Kirk Gibson or John Tudor at #15?



We don’t have the fantasy equivalent of Rickey Henderson…yet. But someone like Jose Reyes or Carl Crawford could get there one day. And when the player pool is stacked (like it was in the 1980s) where the early picks have a competitive advantage over the later ones, we’ll need a better system than Tom-pulling-numbers-out-of-a-hat to determine who gets access to those elite players.



Blind bidding for draft slot (BBDS) gives everyone equal access to every draft position. The concept should be very simple for NFBC participants: You rank your draft preference (just like the KDS system). You place a bid amount for every preference (just like FAAB bidding every week). So, if you want to build your 2007 roster around Soriano or Pujols or Reyes, you can bid to make that happen. If you like drafting from the middle positions, you can bid to make that happen. If you think draft position is irrelevant, you can save your FAAB dollars and gain an advantage over the rest of your league during the regular season.



The one objection I can understand to BBDS is that the idea may seem a little daunting to first-time NFBC players, especially those who sign up at the last minute. So here’s a compromise proposal: Implement the BBDS system in 2007 for the Ultimate leagues and maybe a few satellite leagues. Then, in 2008, we can show new players an “average BBDS report” just like we can show them an average draft position report from earlier years. That will help everyone calibrate their thinking on how much they should bid and make the process less daunting to new players.



The advantages of BBDS over the current system are glaringly obvious to me. I’m interested to hear if any objections exist.

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Quahogs » Thu Sep 07, 2006 7:25 am

Loll,

for sure BBDS needs a walk before you can run approach. I tried to come up with some negatives involving BBDS... but I really couldnt. It seems very equitable to me; you want the Freak Henderson stud then you have to pay up for him. Think the preseason top 15 never pan out in that order ? bid 0 get whatever and pocket all your FAAB. Fear of the unknown to new entrants (causing a decline in participation) is the only drawback - sats and ult.s filling up with 100% interested participants with a year or two of relatable transparent bid/results would be a great start.

Good post lolly.



Q

Chest Rockwell
Posts: 2400
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Chest Rockwell » Thu Sep 07, 2006 8:03 am

Eric,



Well said but I think we need to push for BBDS for the main event in 07. For this much money any chance to eliminate luck/chance should be seized.



I think we constantly under estimate the knowledge and skill of new players to this event. They will adjust and we will all be on an even playing field in 07 if implemented.

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Quahogs » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:07 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Eric,



Well said but I think we need to push for BBDS for the main event in 07. For this much money any chance to eliminate luck/chance should be seized.



I think we constantly under estimate the knowledge and skill of new players to this event. They will adjust and we will all be on an even playing field in 07 if implemented. Chest, dont really see the rush for '07. The contest is growing nicely - it'd be kind of risky to implement something so radical, scare people off, lower the participation #'s.. the NFBC can spend some time drumming support via sats and such. Besides who's the MUST have #1 next year anyway? Soriano, Arod, Pujols, Beltran, Reyes, Crawford, Wright ??? There'll be no Henderson then gap down next year. Just playing it safe, you dont want to have it then lose it.



Q

Andy Tu La Daddy
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Andy Tu La Daddy » Thu Sep 07, 2006 9:12 am

I love the BBDS concept. It would really level the playing field which is what it's all about. If there was a vote, I would vote YES!!!!
There's no crying in Fantasy Baseball

The Lollygaggers
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by The Lollygaggers » Thu Sep 07, 2006 10:03 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Eric,



Well said but I think we need to push for BBDS for the main event in 07. For this much money any chance to eliminate luck/chance should be seized.



I think we constantly under estimate the knowledge and skill of new players to this event. They will adjust and we will all be on an even playing field in 07 if implemented. Chest – Obviously, I’d be thrilled if an NFBC-wide change to BBDS happened in 2007. But I’d give Greg the benefit of the doubt if he decides that's too soon for the main event. I am interested to know what he thinks.

Chest Rockwell
Posts: 2400
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Chest Rockwell » Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:16 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Eric,



Well said but I think we need to push for BBDS for the main event in 07. For this much money any chance to eliminate luck/chance should be seized.



I think we constantly under estimate the knowledge and skill of new players to this event. They will adjust and we will all be on an even playing field in 07 if implemented. Chest, dont really see the rush for '07. The contest is growing nicely - it'd be kind of risky to implement something so radical, scare people off, lower the participation #'s.. the NFBC can spend some time drumming support via sats and such. Besides who's the MUST have #1 next year anyway? Soriano, Arod, Pujols, Beltran, Reyes, Crawford, Wright ??? There'll be no Henderson then gap down next year. Just playing it safe, you dont want to have it then lose it.



Q
[/QUOTE]All valid points- but it is not always about getting a certain pick or 2 as much as paying to avoid a couple of spots. Personally that is how I will play it.



Again- I have been pleasantly shocked at how well new people have adapted. I think as many new people will come because they like the idea as those who would not because of it.



To me- the biggest obstacles to people joining are more things like 1)money 2) wanting to travel for a draft 3) 15 team format 4) no trades- those are much bigger obstacles than hey you have to put some thought in to where you draft but there are plenty of people to help answer any questions you might have.



I picture a lot of people being confused with a few questions- but I do not picture them saying oh I am ok with Kentucky Derby but if you take it one step further I am out.

User avatar
Greg Ambrosius
Posts: 41091
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:28 am

There are two issues here Eric worth noting, neither of which means that BBDS can't be done in the future. They include:



1) The novelty of BBDS, which is smaller in my view than the second one. With good promotion before the event, we can educate players on BBDS just as easily as we can educate them on FAAB or KDS. There's no question that some owners will be scared off by BBDS and we could lose potential new customers, but I would assume that FAAB already does that. Still, the goal is to grow the NFBC as best we can and BBDS has its plusses for growth and its minuses.



2) The second concern is equal competition in all of the main event leagues. If some owners are able to win their league title and thus amass more total points because they were the only ones picking off free agents during the season, it taints the overall competition. If one league saw most of its owners overspend on their draft spots, it could change the balance of a league in one owner's favor. At least with the setup now, everyone starts at square 1, which is $1,000 in FAAB.



Now I understand the argument that FAAB unlevels the playing field after Week 1 and the FAAB sheet could just as easily look as unbalanced after the first FAAB period as it could after the BBDS setup. But it's possible that BBDS throws things out of whack in each league a little more than having everyone start at $1,000 once the season begins.



BBDS needs to be tried in satellite leagues and individual high-stakes leagues first and the public needs to be educated on the process first. KDS went smoothly in baseball and football this year and it seemed to have a positive effect in both situations. It's not perfect, but it's a step in the right direction. BBDS would be another step in the right direction.....in time.



I'm not sure even the Ultimate League guys would all agree to do that format this year, so it's not an easy sell. Not everyone wants to use free agent dollars for draft spots. It's just a fact. But keep the discussion going and each year we'll test the waters and see where it leads us.



As everyone knows, any system that makes you guys and gals happier with your draft spots makes Tom and I happier! :D But it has to accomplish that while also allowing us to grow the event.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

The Lollygaggers
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by The Lollygaggers » Fri Sep 08, 2006 6:35 am

Greg Ambrosius said:

I'm not sure even the Ultimate League guys would all agree to do that format this year, so it's not an easy sell. Not everyone wants to use free agent dollars for draft spots. It's just a fact. The current Ultimate owners overwhelmingly support BBDS, as evidenced by threads here, here, and here. Ultimate owners that have gone on record in previous threads support it by a vote of 11 to 2. Andy Tu La Daddy and Quahogs now make the tally 13 to 2, or 87% in favor of BBDS . I don’t think that the two dissenters could legitimately complain about a rule change in which they were so overwhelmingly outvoted.



Along with popular support, it’s clear that BBDS is a much fairer way to award draft spots than the current system. That will be even more true in years when the elite player pool isn’t as deep as it was in 2006.





Greg Ambrosius said:

BBDS needs to be tried in satellite leagues and individual high-stakes leagues first and the public needs to be educated on the process first. KDS went smoothly in baseball and football this year and it seemed to have a positive effect in both situations. It's not perfect, but it's a step in the right direction. BBDS would be another step in the right direction.....in time. I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said here. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I’m not pushing BBDS for the 2007 main event. But we’re entering the fourth year of NFBC and the third year for Ultimate. The education process should be very easy for the market segment that participates in Ultimate and the high-stakes satellite leagues.



Let me know what you think about this idea: Last year, the NFBC filled one $1000 satellite league on March 7. This year, what if you create two $1000 satellite leagues – one on Tuesday, March 6; the other on Thursday, March 8? Make one of them BBDS, the other KDS. See which one fills first. I’d wager it’s BBDS. Either way, you win by getting an extra high-stakes league.

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Quahogs » Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:15 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:



Let me know what you think about this idea: Last year, the NFBC filled one $1000 satellite league on March 7. This year, what if you create two $1000 satellite leagues – one on Tuesday, March 6; the other on Thursday, March 8? Make one of them BBDS, the other KDS. See which one fills first. I’d wager it’s BBDS. Either way, you win by getting an extra high-stakes league. ha! the 1st league to fill will be the one you're not in !



Q

The Lollygaggers
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by The Lollygaggers » Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:02 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

ha! the 1st league to fill will be the one you're not in !



Q Nah, I'm trying to convince DiDonato that KDS is the method for him. He's way scarier than me.

:D



PS - Very nice work in Ultimate this year.

User avatar
Greg Ambrosius
Posts: 41091
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Fri Sep 08, 2006 9:54 am

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

ha! the 1st league to fill will be the one you're not in !



Q Nah, I'm trying to convince DiDonato that KDS is the method for him. He's way scarier than me.

:D



PS - Very nice work in Ultimate this year. [/QUOTE]You are correct. David will be the defending champion in the Ultimate League and he was against BBDS this year. If you get 15 owners who want to do an Ultimate League with BBDS or a $1,000 league or a $100 league, I'll run it. Changing the draft selection order doesn't affect me in the least as long as EVERYONE is in favor of the rules change.



I'm with you on all this, but I want everyone in favor in advance before leaving out our good customers, even on a side league.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

Chest Rockwell
Posts: 2400
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Chest Rockwell » Fri Sep 08, 2006 10:29 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

ha! the 1st league to fill will be the one you're not in !



Q Nah, I'm trying to convince DiDonato that KDS is the method for him. He's way scarier than me.

:D





count me in for the 1000 dollar sat BBDS-





Greg you ever think about a 1500 or 2000 satellite league?



PS - Very nice work in Ultimate this year. [/QUOTE]You are correct. David will be the defending champion in the Ultimate League and he was against BBDS this year. If you get 15 owners who want to do an Ultimate League with BBDS or a $1,000 league or a $100 league, I'll run it. Changing the draft selection order doesn't affect me in the least as long as EVERYONE is in favor of the rules change.



I'm with you on all this, but I want everyone in favor in advance before leaving out our good customers, even on a side league.
[/QUOTE]

The Lollygaggers
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by The Lollygaggers » Fri Sep 08, 2006 10:37 am

Greg Ambrosius said:

David will be the defending champion in the Ultimate League and he was against BBDS this year. Greg - Are you sure about David being against BBDS? The only comment I've seen him make is this one : "I dont have a preference so either way is fine." I had David marked down as the lone undecided voter. But if he's changed his mind, I'd be interested to hear why.



If you get 15 owners who want to do an Ultimate League with BBDS or a $1,000 league or a $100 league, I'll run it. Changing the draft selection order doesn't affect me in the least as long as EVERYONE is in favor of the rules change.If this is the criteria for BBDS, I'll go ahead and concede now. Unanimous consent AND 100% turnout? It's easier to amend the US Constitution.



I'm not trying to be a pain, but do you really think people won't sign up for Ultimate because they have to put a dollar figure next to their KDS preference? Did you really have people say, "Screw it, I'm not playing anymore" if they opposed the change from random selection to KDS? And that was for the main event!



I get outvoted all the time (rarely by a 74% margin, but I digress). I can't imagine that the two guys who voted against BBDS (Chris Schinker and Jason Duponte) would refuse to play if the overwhelming majority of their leaguemates voted for the rule change.

Spyhunter
Posts: 1560
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 6:00 pm
Contact:

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by Spyhunter » Fri Sep 08, 2006 12:00 pm

Since I am such a big supporter for FAAB bidding for all NFBC league, I have to put in a big YES vote.



I find a couple of the arguments against bidding a little hard to swallow:



1) NFBC will lose players because people will be scared off by bidding. Ok, so, let me get this straight: Fantasy Baseball players who are willing to draft in 15 team leagues, with 30 players for >$1000 often in different cities than they live are going to be scared by bidding on position????



Most managers I know HATE the random assignment of drafting slot process. Giving them a way to give them control may not only not scare people off, but ATTRACT players who might be scared by being stuck with a 15th pick



2) FAAB bidding will throw off the team balance in the overall competition: Huh? People can (and DO) bid anything they want on FAAB pickups. This is the way it should be. This is an adult league and someone wants to spend $600 on Burgos (or Pena or whoever), NFBC allows them (as it should). If you accept this argument, then you must accept that FAAB bids must be 'controlled' during the season. Is Stalin next? Should I move to Cuba? We are all adults, and should be allowed to make the straegic decisions we see fit.



3) Education may be a challenge. Frankly buying something in an auction is a very easy to understand process. KDS is the very strange process to me and takes much more explanation when I try to explain to people I am convincing to play in NFBC....



Anyway, that is my 2 cents... Go BIDING! Frankly, I would love open outcry pre-each draft, but I know that day is far far away :(



Chris aka Spyhunter

bustouts
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2004 6:00 pm

A Case for Blind Bidding on Draft Slot

Post by bustouts » Fri Sep 08, 2006 1:16 pm

I'm not against it. I said I had no preference either way. Whatever league has 15 owners drafting together in the same room is the one I would get in.

Post Reply