What Was The Best Draft Spot In 2006?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:35 am

We still have two weeks left in the NFBC season and it looks like most of the league titles are going to go right down to the last day of the season. But by looking at the data from the 24 NFBC drafts in 2006 -- the 22 main event leagues and the two Ultimate League drafts -- it's obvious that no single draft spot was completely advantageous. In fact, every draft spot except for No. 3 and No. 11 currently have a team leading their league.

Interestingly, 10 of the 24 league leaders right now are coming from the last five draft spots, with 13 and 15 yielding four league leaders each. That's the highest number thus far, with 10 yielding 10 first place teams right now. The top five spots currently are yielding the fewest league leaders with a total of five, although our overall leader (David DiDonato) drafted from the fifth spot in Las Vegas League 9. I don't have exact data on the individual players who are on the most league leaders' teams, but I did see a lot of teams with Carl Crawford with their first picks.

Here's a quick look at the data from those 24 drafts:

1st spot -- one 1st, two 3rds

2nd -- one 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd

3rd -- two 2nds, one 3rd

4th -- two 1sts, one 2nd, one third

5th -- one 1st, three 2nds

6th -- one 1st, one 2nd

7th -- one and a half 1st, two 2nds, one 3rd

8th -- one 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd

9th -- two 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd

10th -- three 1st, two 2nd, five 3rd

11th -- two 2nd, three 3rd

12th -- one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rd

13th -- four and a half 1st, two 2nd, two 3rd

14th -- one 1st, five second, two 3rd

15th -- four 1st, two 3rd

The best spots thus far? 13 is yielding the most money won, while 10 has the most money finishers. Certainly it didn't hurt to be at the bottom of the draft order this year as 40 of the 72 money finishers are coming from spots 10 through 15.

Again, this is unofficial and a lot can change in the next two weeks, but it's interesting data thus far. Last year the middle rounds seemed to yield the best results, but this year the results are a bit different. More to come once the season is complete.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:57 am

wonder how many of those teams have either reyes or soriano. neither were #1 picks but both (reyes especially) were popular grabs within the 1st 4 spots coming back.

Q

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:59 am

Still, the teams with the first picks in the first and third rounds had an advantage against the other teams. That advantage may have dwindled as the season went on and certain teams with the top pick made poor decisions pushing them down the standings in their own division.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:12 am

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:14 am

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Still, the teams with the first picks in the first and third rounds had an advantage against the other teams. That advantage may have dwindled as the season went on and certain teams with the top pick made poor decisions pushing them down the standings in their own division. It sucked to be at the end of the 3rd- I agree Andy. You were looking at starting a closer run or going for a power bat that scared a lot of folks like Delgado or Sexson, or taking too much starting pitching too early.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:42 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

wonder how many of those teams have either reyes or soriano. neither were #1 picks but both (reyes especially) were popular grabs within the 1st 4 spots coming back.

Q It's interesting that Andy and Chest both feel those who picked early had the advantage when the numbers say otherwise. I agree Q, this year the speed was gone by the end of the second round and those picking at the end likely picked up Jose Reyes, Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins or Ichiro Suzuki as second round bargains. There's no question that in a 30-round draft, everything gets equaled out, but we all agreed that speed would be gone by around the middle second round and that was the case this year. Picking at the back end of Round 1 was not seen as a detriment this year.

But again, every year is different. This year the success is balanced throughout every draft spot, so really it shows that you could have won from anywhere. You definitely needed good fortune and the right picks, but no one spot was the perfect spot in 2006.

There's no question we'll keep KDS in 2007 and we'll offer some satellite leagues with BBDS for those who want to draft that way. If the Ultimate Leagues unanimously agree to use BBDS, I'll do that as well. But I honestly think KDS allows some flexibility for baseball owners to possibly pick in a more desired spot than they might have gotten in a random selection. It will be fun to start working on the rankings for our first magazine, which Tom and I will begin as soon as the MLB season concludes.

Again, more data to come at season's end. This is good to chew on for now, but we'll get more precise when the final results are in.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:29 am

picks 3-5 in most cases probably had a tough season. There were alot of D.Lees and Teixeiras there combined with Pierre and Podsednk. The Crawford pickers around 4-7 if avoided Pierre/pods could have had Jeter or Soriano and then Howard in round 3. Crawford-Jeter/Soriano-Howard. Man o man, I wonder if that combo was nabbed .

Q

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:37 am

Since we're discussing Competitive Balance, for discussion purposes, does anyone out there find that some leagues are way more competitive than others? I know that this is mostly random but I wonder if certain leagues were comprised of more "professionals" than others. Personally, Tu la Daddies has enjoyed the challenge of competing with several "industry professional experts" in our Tampa One league. However, when competing for $100,000.00, I wonder if there is an advantage based on the talent pool within ones league.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:30 am

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Since we're discussing Competitive Balance, for discussion purposes, does anyone out there find that some leagues are way more competitive than others? I know that this is mostly random but I wonder if certain leagues were comprised of more "professionals" than others. Personally, Tu la Daddies has enjoyed the challenge of competing with several "industry professional experts" in our Tampa One league. However, when competing for $100,000.00, I wonder if there is an advantage based on the talent pool within ones league. Tell me how you rank competitive balance? Las Vegas League 9 last year had the most defending NFBC league champs and some of our most notorious owners, yet the biggest league lead is in LV 9 and our overall champion could come out of there. He certainly wasn't helped by the "luck of the draw" if you will.

Yes, it is true that who you compete against may be as important as where you draft from, but the NFBC competition seems to be tight in all 15-team leagues. We've had owners chasing different cities for an advantage, but I have yet to see one. And as for the industry "experts," well, they've had their share of good success and tough finishes.

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:45 am

Greg,

For starters, I recognize the NFBC as the ultimate National Fantasy Baseball league around. I compare it to America, the greatest country on Earth. What is great about America is that even though we are the greatest country on Earth, our constitution is built to deal with change when necessary to make the best even better. One of my favorite things about the NFBC is it's open mindedness to change when the maority speaks in favor of it.

That said, If a league is filled with qualified experts, 10 teams might be bidding for a super-prospect like Ryan Shealy in one league and in a "non expert" league 1 team might bid for him. For every plus there is in one league, there is a minus I understand.

Just a point for discussion, if I am alone in my thoughts, I defer to the masses.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:24 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Or, taken another way "since it doesn't matter", why not do blind bidding to accomodate the people who DO think it matters? You can simple not bid and spend any FAAB...

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:36 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Or, taken another way "since it doesn't matter", why not do blind bidding to accomodate the people who DO think it matters? You can simple not bid and spend any FAAB... [/QUOTE]Don't think the bids would be that high in baseball, making it an excercise in futility.

Every year is very different from the prior year.

This year, it was 10-15. Next year, it could be 1-5. The year after that, 6-9.

I'll always remember my customer that complained about getting another double digit pick, #16, and he called me back at the end of the season and told me he drafted Sosa and McGwire.

Did any of the Top 10 this year exceed expectations? Seems like this year, those went 12-25.

Next year's first round is going to be all over the place. I could see Reyes going #1 in a league and #12, and they both could be right.

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:33 am

Does your draft slot help? I guess it may a little but not a lot. If you have a drafting plan, it can be executed from any slot. If you are winging it, then the middle is likely best. My personal preference in middle, front & lastly back.

What I do think is vital is something I certainly do not have time to properly analyze. And that is health especially in hitting. Every injury to one of your top 10 hitters means filling in with a far inferior player. The more fill-ins, the worse your hitting numbers. Drafting pitchers with known injuires or historically prone to injury is a bad idea. Some hitters injuries come out of the blue like Matsui & Lee. Others can be somewhat expected like Sheffield. Many pitchers like Wood, Prior and Sheets come to mind.

You can't avoid some injuries but you can try to keep yourself away from dangerious situations. Still, all injuries have the same consequences - they lower your numbers.

[ September 18, 2006, 05:34 PM: Message edited by: viper ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:17 pm

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Or, taken another way "since it doesn't matter", why not do blind bidding to accomodate the people who DO think it matters? You can simple not bid and spend any FAAB... [/QUOTE]All you guys who complain that blind bidding would be more 'fair' would be the first ones to argue that the draft where the number one pick goes for $10 has put their owner at an advantage to win the overall and that there is no status quo among the leagues.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Sep 18, 2006 12:21 pm

Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Greg,

For starters, I recognize the NFBC as the ultimate National Fantasy Baseball league around. I compare it to America, the greatest country on Earth. What is great about America is that even though we are the greatest country on Earth, our constitution is built to deal with change when necessary to make the best even better. One of my favorite things about the NFBC is it's open mindedness to change when the maority speaks in favor of it.

That said, If a league is filled with qualified experts, 10 teams might be bidding for a super-prospect like Ryan Shealy in one league and in a "non expert" league 1 team might bid for him. For every plus there is in one league, there is a minus I understand.

Just a point for discussion, if I am alone in my thoughts, I defer to the masses. I think almost anyone who puts up this kind of money for fball would be of the opinion that if you're a hack, stay home. Every league here is an expert league.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:52 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Greg,

For starters, I recognize the NFBC as the ultimate National Fantasy Baseball league around. I compare it to America, the greatest country on Earth. What is great about America is that even though we are the greatest country on Earth, our constitution is built to deal with change when necessary to make the best even better. One of my favorite things about the NFBC is it's open mindedness to change when the maority speaks in favor of it.

That said, If a league is filled with qualified experts, 10 teams might be bidding for a super-prospect like Ryan Shealy in one league and in a "non expert" league 1 team might bid for him. For every plus there is in one league, there is a minus I understand.

Just a point for discussion, if I am alone in my thoughts, I defer to the masses. I think almost anyone who puts up this kind of money for fball would be of the opinion that if you're a hack, stay home. Every league here is an expert league. [/QUOTE]Surely you jest! No way 1-15 in each league are of the same quality. No way Jose!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:18 pm

Originally posted by nydownunder:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Andy Tu La Daddy:

Greg,

For starters, I recognize the NFBC as the ultimate National Fantasy Baseball league around. I compare it to America, the greatest country on Earth. What is great about America is that even though we are the greatest country on Earth, our constitution is built to deal with change when necessary to make the best even better. One of my favorite things about the NFBC is it's open mindedness to change when the maority speaks in favor of it.

That said, If a league is filled with qualified experts, 10 teams might be bidding for a super-prospect like Ryan Shealy in one league and in a "non expert" league 1 team might bid for him. For every plus there is in one league, there is a minus I understand.

Just a point for discussion, if I am alone in my thoughts, I defer to the masses. I think almost anyone who puts up this kind of money for fball would be of the opinion that if you're a hack, stay home. Every league here is an expert league. [/QUOTE]Surely you jest! No way 1-15 in each league are of the same quality. No way Jose! [/QUOTE]Of course not, but I think everyone goes in thinking they are an expert and how are you going to determine who is and who isn't? Every league has potential to be competitive (See TB3). I don't know that because smeone has press credentials he understands baseball or fball better. If you don't believe me, listen to Joe Morgan one of these Sundays. Some people act like 'experts' are drafting from a different pool of players. If anything, they are more predictable. I hate it when I'm in a rookie league and someone nabs CC Sabathia in the 4th round. And that's not even an inefficiency in player worth, it's merely someone trying to guess what a player is worth (more or less accurately) because he doesn't know where the experts have the guy pegged.

I do think it's sad that people quit managing their teams at this level. If for no other reason, you should at least do the honorable thing and keep up the competitive balance in your league.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:27 am

It does "matter" where you pick (especially in the first 10 rounds), but like most of you, it involves recognition of what the strengths and weaknesses of each relative position are.

What I mean is this, if you have pick in the 1-5 range, you know the weakness is the length of time to your second and third picks, but the strength is you know you are going to get three of your top 30 or so players as well as a crack at a low risk "marquee" player. The middle has the advantage of recognizing runs as and has the best chance at a more balanced draft in the early goings (and you do not have to wait so damn long for your next pick). The end can really set the tone with category runs (speed this year) and has the first reasonable crack at those "risks" with biggest upside (Soriano), but with the weakness of the players no longer available to you between pick 1 & 2 and 3 & 4.

So, generally, I have three drafts in my mind until I know where I am picking. What if scenarios, if you will, depending on my draft position. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. This year I was very happy that I got the 4th pick. I go Tex. A. Ram and Carlos Lee made my 2 and 3 picks acceptable, but Tex has let me down (wonder where he will go next year!).

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:47 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Or, taken another way "since it doesn't matter", why not do blind bidding to accomodate the people who DO think it matters? You can simple not bid and spend any FAAB... [/QUOTE]All you guys who complain that blind bidding would be more 'fair' would be the first ones to argue that the draft where the number one pick goes for $10 has put their owner at an advantage to win the overall and that there is no status quo among the leagues. [/QUOTE]I don't get your point. Of course we think there are ways to differentiate via draft position. That is why we favor bidding, but, I don't see why anyone who argues draft position doesn't matter would care. By definition, they are willing to accept any slot because they feel it doesn't matter. So what is your point?

viper · Post by **viper** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:36 am

I do something similar to King Edwards in preparation before I know my draft slot. I do one-man mock drafts at the #3, #8 and #13 slots to get a flavor of what type of player will be available and also who will likely be gone. As a list to "draft against" I use one of the many expert dafts or a composite of several expert drafts. I go about 12 rounds and see how my team is formed and how it has to progress. After the 10th-12th rounds, most teams start drafting based on holes so I don't feel you need to extend a mock draft after that point. I will also run a mock where in the 8th or 13th slot I take Santana to see how that plays out. I may have to juggle the master list I am mocking against to have him available in the 13th although he is there a lot. After my slot is assigned, I hone in on that slot and see how variations build my team from just that slot.

I still believe that health of your first 10 picks is the single biggest factor to success.

[ September 21, 2006, 09:36 AM: Message edited by: viper ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:05 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Thus proving ONCE again it does not matter where you pick, but whom you pick. Nice job Greg of going three spots deep.

Or, taken another way "since it doesn't matter", why not do blind bidding to accomodate the people who DO think it matters? You can simple not bid and spend any FAAB... [/QUOTE]All you guys who complain that blind bidding would be more 'fair' would be the first ones to argue that the draft where the number one pick goes for $10 has put their owner at an advantage to win the overall and that there is no status quo among the leagues. [/QUOTE]I don't get your point. Of course we think there are ways to differentiate via draft position. That is why we favor bidding, but, I don't see why anyone who argues draft position doesn't matter would care. By definition, they are willing to accept any slot because they feel it doesn't matter. So what is your point? [/QUOTE]I don't think your post relates to mine, so I'll try and explain again.

Before the first FAAB period, due to buying draft spots Team A has the #1 pick and $990 FAAB remaining. Teams B, C, and D, each in a different league, also have the #1 draft pick, but each of them has about $500 remaining.

Because Team A got his pick so cheaply he will certainly have an advantage over B, C, and D in the overall and depending on your point of view, he may have an advantage over every team.

I would think that huge advocates of blind bidding (whatever the acronym) would especially complain about his advantage because they believe so strongly that draft position makes a difference.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:13 am

bjoak - Your scenario is no different than Cole Hamels going for $250 in some leagues and $650 in others. Obviously, whoever got Hamels for $250 got a bargain, relative to the other leagues. But that's not something people seriously complain about affecting the integrity of the overall competition.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:21 am

Originally posted by viper:

I still believe that health of your first 10 picks is the single biggest factor to success. Bingo.

Good stuff on the mocking. The truer test of a fantasy champion would be to walk into the room, draft your slot, and draft. Too bad that will never happen. No one would ever be late!!

Maybe the owners that spend their time worrying so much about the right draft position should spend it doing more mocks. Not a one of them can EVER show me any ten consecutive years of data where draft slot has determined the outcome of 15 team leagues on a consistent basis.

The pick that does the best each year rotates in a random way and there is no recognizable pattern to it. As noted, injuries are the largest factor among dozens of factors.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:28 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Not a one of them can EVER show me any ten consecutive years of data where draft slot has determined the outcome of 15 team leagues on a consistent basis.

The pick that does the best each year rotates in a random way and there is no recognizable pattern to it. As noted, injuries are the largest factor among dozens of factors.UFS - Refer to the thread on Rickey Henderson here. Do you seriously believe that the #1 pick who had access to Henderson in the early-mid 80s didn't have an advantage over the #15 pick?

[ September 21, 2006, 12:29 PM: Message edited by: The Lollygaggers ]

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:28 am

Folks who think that draft position doesn't matter should be the ones who most want auction dollars spent on draft position. They could bid zero, get the least desirable picks and have an edge during the weekly free agent bidding process.