2007 Projected First Round Picks

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:42 am

Okay, Tom and I are preparing for our first fantasy baseball issue and having fun looking at the 2006 statistics. With that in mind, we thought we'd individually forecast our 2007 NFBC first round picks and solicit thoughts from our top players. Here are our projections as of Sept. 27th and feel free to criticize, add or delete or just have fun with the names:

Greg's 2007 NFBC First Round Picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Alfonso Soriano

3. Jose Reyes

4. Ryan Howard

5. Alex Rodriguez

6. Vladimir Guerrero

7. Carl Crawford

8. Carlos Beltran

9. David Ortiz

10. David Wright

11. Miguel Cabrera

12. Johan Santana

13. Chase Utley

14. Travis Hafner

15. Matt Holliday

Tom's 2007 NFBC First Round Picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Alfonso Soriano

3. Alex Rodriguez

4. David Ortiz

5. Vladimir Guerrero

6. Carl Crawford

7. Travis Hafner

8. Ryan Howard

9. Johan Santana

10. David Wright

11. Jose Reyes

12. Chase Utley

13. Carlos Beltran

14. Jason Bay

15. Miguel Cabrera

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:51 am

just a quick glance, I think Crawford should be in front of Vlad and Tom needs Howard in front of Ortiz (prob no manny in back of ortiz next year and the UTIL restrict. does hinder a bit).

Q

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:14 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

just a quick glance, I think Crawford should be in front of Vlad and Tom needs Howard in front of Ortiz (prob no manny in back of ortiz next year and the UTIL restrict. does hinder a bit).

Q Yeah, I can see Crawford going top 4 or 5. Agreed on Ortiz. The bottom of the draft is again shaping up like 2006 as you're seeing a lot of speed available in the early second round. Jeter, Rollins, Suzuki and Figgins will be down there, along with power-hitters like Justin Morneau, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez and Aramis Ramirez. Interesting Top 30 again this year.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:15 am

the "DECISIONIST'S" early 1st Rounders

1.pujols-and he missed 20 games

2.soriano-depends on where he lands in free agency, could be #1

3.reyes-a roto stud

4.crawford-numbers keep getting better

5.arod-steady but numbers dipped

6.howard-still a few ?? for me

7.ortiz-how can you not love big papi and missed 10 games, needs a stud behind him to protect

8.vlad-vanilla to me

9.santana-is best, durable and is there when you need him in 2nd half

10.utley-sock solid, weak position, great spot in lineup

11.bay-still has upside, cant believe they pitch to him, needs more protection

12. SLEEPER

13.wright-plays with heart on upswing

14.beltran-durability still an issue for me

15.cabrera-see bay

**all info is subject to change without notice

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:23 am

I like it Rick. You have me convinced now that Crawford is Top 5, moving ahead of Howard. The thing that surprises me with Crawford is that he's 20+ runs behind all the other studs. Only 85 runs scored thus far this year, whereas Soriano is at 117 and A-Rod is at 108. Get him to cross home plate more often and he's Top 4!

Ortiz will be an interesting pick this year and he could go anywhere from 7 to 14. Hafner, too. Santana will be interesting again, too. I like it all already. I know you Mr. DECISIONIST are ready to draft right now!

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:59 am

the upside on crawford, delmon young added to lineup plus baldelli for the full year. the ?? may be where they bat him 1 or 3.

i may have papi a bit high but i am a big fan since he is on the squad this year. hmm, if he just had play a full season i may have been able to make a "push" @ #1. still need to finish strong. go hamels, peavy, figgy and can i get another start out of webb???

an interesting ?? for me is texiera a top 5 almost everywhere does he bounce back?? look @ his 2nd half. i think he just got in a bad HR slump early. thoughts?? RT

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:16 am

I think that Webb should shut it down. That was good enough last night, he should end on a high note.

Hey Rick, are you rooting for a Phillie-Dodger 1 game play-off to get another start out of Hamels and at-bats for Burrell and Nomar, or would you just assume have the season end on Sunday?

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:22 am

what a quandry!!!! right now, no game. but after garlands next start i may need hamels to right the ship. with soooo many ab's i would take my chances on the 0-8 and take the k's and possible win. have fun!! RT

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:36 am

I got a feeling I am going to be rooting for it. Should be a fun next five days...

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:54 am

or six days.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:42 am

Okay, I've changed my mind a little, which is sure to happen often between now and the time our first issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine goes to press:

Greg's 2007 NFBC First Round Picks:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Alfonso Soriano

3. Jose Reyes

4. Carl Crawford

5. Alex Rodriguez

6. Ryan Howard

7. Vladimir Guerrero

8. David Ortiz

9. David Wright

10. Carlos Beltran

11. Miguel Cabrera

12. Johan Santana

13. Chase Utley

14. Travis Hafner

15. Matt Holliday

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:42 am

It's fun to look at the year-end numbers and try to rank the Top 100 for 2007 fantasy drafts. A lot will happen between now and the time our first Fantasy Sports Magazine goes to press, but the top players from last year are certainly easy to identify right now. Looking at the next 15 possible picks in the NFBC draft, I'll predict that these 15 players likely get a lot of attention:

Greg's 2007 Second Round Picks, not in exact order yet:

Jason Bay

Jimmy Rollins

Derek Lee

Derek Jeter

Lance Berkman

Grady Sizemore

Justin Morneau

Mark Teixeira

Ichiro Suzuki

Miguel Tejada

Vernon Wells

Juan Pierre

Chone Figgins

Michael Young

Garrett Atkins

It's possible that all of the speed guys won't be gone before the end of the second round this year. In fact, those picking in the Top 5 this year could still have a lot of speed options if they want them this year. It's certainly possible that Hanley Ramirez and/or Rafael Furcal could go in the second round, but I'm sure that Dave Roberts, Corey Patterson, Felipe Lopez, Scott Podsednik, Ryan Freel, Brian Roberts, Willy Taveras and other 20+ stolen base guys will still be there in the third round. Should be interesting.

Is my second round list out of whack? Would you rank them much differently? Would you throw an obvious player I missed in there? Is any starting pitcher or reliever worthy in the second round? Let's continue the discussion and have some fun with this.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 7:11 am

Interesting to see noone from the Ramirez family of stars. Be it Manny, Aramis, or even Hanley. Not saying I disagree, certainly the Hanley omission is understandable, but if the other two wind up with some lineup protection, both could be great 3rd round value...

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 8:12 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Interesting to see noone from the Ramirez family of stars. Be it Manny, Aramis, or even Hanley. Not saying I disagree, certainly the Hanley omission is understandable, but if the other two wind up with some lineup protection, both could be great 3rd round value... I have all three on my list, but still haven't decided where to slot them. All or none could end up in the second round, but mainly their ADP could be closer to 30 or so. We'll see what the Hot Stove League brings for these guys.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 8:35 am

Greg- no love for Carlos Lee hmmm?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:19 am

I agree with Mr. Rockwell. Carlos Lee I think will go in the second. The rest of the list looks great, so who would I bump for C. Lee?

Bad spring and I would guess Derrick Lee (too late for the magazine), or one of the speed guys could move (Figgins?). All that being said, I think Atkins has the best chance of being bumped to the third (though I think he is a great ballplayer).

Of the Top 30, the player I think will dissappoint in 2007 is Soriano. He will go in the first round, but he will not post 2006 numbers (or really even close).

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:29 am

Maybe I missed this but I was just wondering if any team in the NFFC Leagues who finished in the money (particularly 1st) drafted Johan Santana (or perhaps any other pitcher) with their first round draft pick. That being said should a pitcher actually qualify as a first round or even maybe a second round pick? Some things that make me go hmmmmmmm? LOL

Ed

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 9:52 am

One more to consider for the second round...Bobby Abreu?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 10:01 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Greg- no love for Carlos Lee hmmm? The Rangers felt he was out of shape by season's end and only has a future as a DH. I'd love to see the Brewers get him back in left field and sign him to a multi-year contract, but there's no doubt he didn't look like the same player after the trade to Texas. If he goes to the right team via free agency, maybe he sneeks into the second round.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 10:01 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

One more to consider for the second round...Bobby Abreu? Yes, I'll admit I did miss him. He should go in the second round. Keep 'em coming as I'm having fun with this. The third round has to come soon, right?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:49 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I agree with Mr. Rockwell. Carlos Lee I think will go in the second. The rest of the list looks great, so who would I bump for C. Lee?

Bad spring and I would guess Derrick Lee (too late for the magazine), or one of the speed guys could move (Figgins?). All that being said, I think Atkins has the best chance of being bumped to the third (though I think he is a great ballplayer).

Of the Top 30, the player I think will dissappoint in 2007 is Soriano. He will go in the first round, but he will not post 2006 numbers (or really even close). Wayne- you can call me Chest. Only Bjoak has to call me Mr Rockwell.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:29 pm

Originally posted by Nutty Scrat:

Maybe I missed this but I was just wondering if any team in the NFFC Leagues who finished in the money (particularly 1st) drafted Johan Santana (or perhaps any other pitcher) with their first round draft pick. That being said should a pitcher actually qualify as a first round or even maybe a second round pick? Some things that make me go hmmmmmmm? LOL

Ed Mr. Scrat, I can see why NFFC teams wouldn't finish in first if they drafted Santana. I don't believe he can pass or punt.

I think Santana was on one or two of the top winning teams here. I think it changes every year. A couple years ago a lot more pitchers went in the first two rounds but there are less guys who seem so consistantly dominant now. I do think that the less players who take pitchers, the more debilitating it becomes to take them. To put it more simply, there was essentially a run on hitters last year and there probably will be in 2007 and so if you take a pitcher, you are missing the stats that are flying off the shelf the quickest.

It will be interesting to see how the first round shapes up over the next few years as players get more savvy. I think one position could essentially take over the round kind of like running backs do in football (at least that's what I hear; I couldn't even tell you what a running back's job is).

Andy Tu La Daddy · Post by **Andy Tu La Daddy** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 12:47 pm

We took Santana with pick number 13 in the first round and won our league. It obviously worked out but we may have gotten a bit lucky.

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 5:10 pm

How about Sizemore somewhare late in the first round?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:27 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I agree with Mr. Rockwell. Carlos Lee I think will go in the second. The rest of the list looks great, so who would I bump for C. Lee?

Bad spring and I would guess Derrick Lee (too late for the magazine), or one of the speed guys could move (Figgins?). All that being said, I think Atkins has the best chance of being bumped to the third (though I think he is a great ballplayer).

Of the Top 30, the player I think will dissappoint in 2007 is Soriano. He will go in the first round, but he will not post 2006 numbers (or really even close). Wayne- you can call me Chest. Only Bjoak has to call me Mr Rockwell. [/QUOTE]

Deal. You going to be in Tampa again next year?