10 Things I'm Watching Right Now

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, the fantasy football season is nearing an end and there's not near enough baseball talk going on here, so let's get things rolling. Are you ready for some baseball?

I know it's fun for you folks to be drafting this early, but it's almost as fun to watch each of these drafts every day and see where the top stars are going. I'm especially looking for certain players in these drafts because opinions vary so much that a guy I'm keeping a close eye on might go in the 6th round in one draft and the 3rd or 4th in another. So it's fun to watch baseball drafts in December and January before the ADPs steer everyone in similar directions.

Anyway, in my best Peter King impersonation, here the 10 Things I'm Watching Now, and I look forward to your opinions on any one of these. Let's get the talk started:

1. Where Does Max Scherzer Land?: Are MLB teams teaching Scott Boras a lesson here or will someone break down and give Scherzer the $200 million contract he feels he deserves? Fantasy owners love his potential, but if he lands with the right team his value could increase from his current ADP of 31. Should be fun to see. Somehow, I think he lands with the Yankees, who may need to win more 3-2 games than ever before.

2. What Will Yasmany Tomas Do During His Rookie Season?: Jose Abreu's ADP at this time last year was around 105 and he eventually started going around pick 75 before becoming AL Rookie of the Year. Does Tomas have the same skills? Everyone is saying no and as a result his ADP is much lower at 160, but the unknown is intriguing to fantasy owners and I have a feeling he will rise in value before the March drafts, even with the swing and miss pedigree.

3. Where Do The SPs Go In Early Rounds?: NFBC owners know how valuable those top aces are to their pitching staffs, so the good ones are going earlier than ever before. This year 8 SPs are going in the first three rounds, compared to 6 last year. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues and even accelerates by the live drafts. It will also be interesting to see how many SPs go in the first 2 rounds. I'm watching.

4. Speed Kills: Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon can dominate this category like nobody else in baseball, and as a result, they are going in the third round in early NFBC drafts. It should be fun to watch their progress leading up to the March drafts. When one of them goes in a draft, the next one is quick to follow.

5. Bryce Harper: Are we still paying for the potential at age 22 or are the constant injuries starting to weigh on us? Well, it looks like the potential wins out as his ADP is 33 right now and he's gone as high as 20th in early drafts. I liked him more last year, but one of these days it's just going to click for him and then you might see first round caliber production. The key word there is MIGHT, but the talent is definitely there and he is still only 22. Should be fun to watch.

6. The Cubs: Theo Epstein has done an amazing job loading up this franchise with prospects, but let's see if any of that potential translates into production. It's fun to watch Kris Bryant and Javier Baez going in the Top 100 of NFBC drafts, while Jorge Soler isn't far behind. I really like Addison Russell's potential and obviously the addition of Jon Lester really helps this rotation. But remember, these are the Cubs and anything can happen here, but the potential for great things is there.

7. Matt Harvey & Jose Fernandez: Matt Harvey will be 18+ months removed from Tommy John Surgery when Opening Day rolls around, so he really should be fully recovered and ready to go. The Mets will be careful with him early on, but if he throws at all like he did in 2013 he could be a real steal at his current ADP of 68. Or is that too high for someone coming off elbow surgery? And Jose Fernandez was shut down last May, so can he really pitch as early as mid-July? And would you really use up a roster spot on someone who won't pitch again until possibly after the All-Star break? Man, I want to watch both of these guys this off-season to see what NFBC owners are thinking. Should be fun to watch.

8. Ryan Braun: Was it the steroids or the bum thumb that led to his so-so season in 2014? No doubt he was hampered by the thumb injury, but that excuse has been used now two years in a row, which is exactly the time frame that he's likely been off steroids. I just didn't see any life out of that bat during the second half of the season and it's a big reason why the Brewers tailed off and didn't make the playoffs. They can't win with a mediocre superstar in the No. 3 hole, so he better get healthy and prove that his talents are still there. If not, he won't even justify that mid-2nd round pick he's at now. He's definitely a Boom-or-Bust candidate in 2015.

9. Fielder & Votto: Two first round picks just a year ago are now finding themselves in the 5th and 6th rounds of NFBC drafts. Injuries are the reason for that and both were serious enough to dampen any enthusiasm for solid returns this year. But again, are you getting a bargain down there or another bust season? That's the BIG question with both of these guys, but when you see both of them at picks 70-80 you have to be thinking good things, right? Well, that is if you didn't owne these guys last year. Let's see where they go by March.

10. The Rookies: After such a good rookie class last year, I want to see the impact of this year's rookie class. It will be tough to match up with last year's class, but Kris Bryant leads the way and he's already going in the Top 100 picks of the NFBC drafts. Can Archie Bradley, Mark Appel and a whole number of other pitchers come in and perform immediately as well? There are a lot of good, young arms in the minors these days and some of those guys could lead fantasy owners to titles in 2015. I'm watching the minors already.

Okay, let's see your thoughts on any of these subjects and get the baseball talk rolling. I have some other items I'm keeping my eyes on, but this is a good starting point. Let's see some strong opinions on any of these items. Thanks all and good luck in 2015.

[Edwards Kings]

1. Where Does Max Scherzer Land?: Are MLB teams teaching Scott Boras a lesson here or will someone break down and give Scherzer the $200 million contract he feels he deserves? Fantasy owners love his potential, but if he lands with the right team his value could increase from his current ADP of 31. Should be fun to see. Somehow, I think he lands with the Yankees, who may need to win more 3-2 games than ever before.

I think you are probably right. Who else is really going to open the wallet at this time? I am surprised he is not already solidly in the second round, no matter what team he plays for. I guess the real question is how much? I have no guess. They are talking crazy numbers, so nothing is going to make sense to me.

2. What Will Yasmany Tomas Do During His Rookie Season?: Jose Abreu's ADP at this time last year was around 105 and he eventually started going around pick 75 before becoming AL Rookie of the Year. Does Tomas have the same skills? Everyone is saying no and as a result his ADP is much lower at 160, but the unknown is intriguing to fantasy owners and I have a feeling he will rise in value before the March drafts, even with the swing and miss pedigree.

Are you sure you don't want to make him a third baseman to start out? No? Well if it looks like he will make it through spring training at 3B, then his ADP climbs. Even if not, some will draft for the hope of the eventual 10 games. Abreu was a surprise for me. We just do not know what to expect out of Cuban players the first time through and with the rash of players recently, I wonder if we have seen the cream of the crop. BA be damned...I am in on this guy hoping he is a reasonable facsimile of Abreu.

3. Where Do The SPs Go In Early Rounds?: NFBC owners know how valuable those top aces are to their pitching staffs, so the good ones are going earlier than ever before. This year 8 SPs are going in the first three rounds, compared to 6 last year. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues and even accelerates by the live drafts. It will also be interesting to see how many SPs go in the first 2 rounds. I'm watching.

I typically wait a little bit on SP. It (almost) worked last year. Had respectable ERA and WHIP, got lucky on wins, but didn't give myself enough heat. After the top tier this year, it seems we do not have too many solid choices without serious questions. This could be the year that someone going SP early and heavy could be the strategy. I know I will take at least one pitcher earlier than normal.

4. Speed Kills: Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon can dominate this category like nobody else in baseball, and as a result, they are going in the third round in early NFBC drafts. It should be fun to watch their progress leading up to the March drafts. When one of them goes in a draft, the next one is quick to follow.

Bang-bang in the third. Hamilton and his less than stellar OBP is the risk. Other fast guys who could not get on base at a good enough clip have faded.

5. Bryce Harper: Are we still paying for the potential at age 22 or are the constant injuries starting to weigh on us? Well, it looks like the potential wins out as his ADP is 33 right now and he's gone as high as 20th in early drafts. I liked him more last year, but one of these days it's just going to click for him and then you might see first round caliber production. The key word there is MIGHT, but the talent is definitely there and he is still only 22. Should be fun to watch.

The ultimate risk reward. Is the 2/3 turn where you want load your roster with such a high level of risk. I am waiting for the talent to show. Missouri/Missouri.

6. The Cubs: Theo Epstein has done an amazing job loading up this franchise with prospects, but let's see if any of that potential translates into production. It's fun to watch Kris Bryant and Javier Baez going in the Top 100 of NFBC drafts, while Jorge Soler isn't far behind. I really like Addison Russell's potential and obviously the addition of Jon Lester really helps this rotation. But remember, these are the Cubs and anything can happen here, but the potential for great things is there.

This is the year. Time to get a new (cleanly washed) goat. Cubbies could use another outfielder. Otherwise, nice team.

7. Matt Harvey & Jose Fernandez: Matt Harvey will be 18+ months removed from Tommy John Surgery when Opening Day rolls around, so he really should be fully recovered and ready to go. The Mets will be careful with him early on, but if he throws at all like he did in 2013 he could be a real steal at his current ADP of 68. Or is that too high for someone coming off elbow surgery? And Jose Fernandez was shut down last May, so can he really pitch as early as mid-July? And would you really use up a roster spot on someone who won't pitch again until possibly after the All-Star break? Man, I want to watch both of these guys this off-season to see what NFBC owners are thinking. Should be fun to watch.

I do not think I can waste a roster spot. I have been burned by projected return dates. Even with probable innings limit, I am all in on Harvey. I can only hope Mr. X is sitting next to me and I grab him JUST as he was SURE I would let him pass to him.

8. Ryan Braun: Was it the steroids or the bum thumb that led to his so-so season in 2014? No doubt he was hampered by the thumb injury, but that excuse has been used now two years in a row, which is exactly the time frame that he's likely been off steroids. I just didn't see any life out of that bat during the second half of the season and it's a big reason why the Brewers tailed off and didn't make the playoffs. They can't win with a mediocre superstar in the No. 3 hole, so he better get healthy and prove that his talents are still there. If not, he won't even justify that mid-2nd round pick he's at now. He's definitely a Boom-or-Bust candidate in 2015.

Another risky early pick, but somehow I am buying the kool-aide on the thumb.

9. Fielder & Votto: Two first round picks just a year ago are now finding themselves in the 5th and 6th rounds of NFBC drafts. Injuries are the reason for that and both were serious enough to dampen any enthusiasm for solid returns this year. But again, are you getting a bargain down there or another bust season? That's the BIG question with both of these guys, but when you see both of them at picks 70-80 you have to be thinking good things, right? Well, that is if you didn't own these guys last year. Let's see where they go by March.

Votto? Who is Votto?

Actually I like the fact these guys are going where they are. Interesting options as any return to former production would be a gift. Hot spring moves them up.

10. The Rookies: After such a good rookie class last year, I want to see the impact of this year's rookie class. It will be tough to match up with last year's class, but Kris Bryant leads the way and he's already going in the Top 100 picks of the NFBC drafts. Can Archie Bradley, Mark Appel and a whole number of other pitchers come in and perform immediately as well? There are a lot of good, young arms in the minors these days and some of those guys could lead fantasy owners to titles in 2015. I'm watching the minors already.

I see the pitchers as being the rookie impact kings. Look at the NL East: Snydergaard, Matz, Montero, Cole, Nicolino, Sims....

[Bronx Yankees]

Good seeing more baseball talk. I'll join in. Another interesting trend I'm seeing is an apparent broadening of the top tier of closers. Last year, it seemed like it was Kimbrel, Chapman (pre-injury), Jansen and Holland early, then Rosenthal back a bit, and then a gap before the next tier (at least from what I recall). Now, all drafts still have Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen and Holland going off very early and almost always as the first four in some order, but I'm also seeing guys like Robertson, Bettances, Doolittle and Melancon going in the first 5-7 rounds, with others, like Rosenthal and Cishek, not all that far behind. I still go back-and-forth on closer strategy. Most times, I shy away from grabbing a top closer, but every now and then (like the draft I'm in now), I do grab one early.

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

I wish I had a clue, Mike. I have been the kiss of death on closers. Pick early...pick late...pick often...zilch. Used to be I thought catchers were the most dangerous position to draft. Not anymore (maybe never) but closers are for sure now. A third to half will not have the 9th inning role by the end of the season.

By the way, great content Greg.

Lots of readers....too few posters. C'mon, you think you are going to get decent information from Yahoo/ESPN/Roto-site du jour? And you certainly won't get any decent discussion, discord, dialogue.

Let's hear from some of you....it is a long winter and I would hate to think all I had was work to look forward to....

[Glenneration X]

7. Matt Harvey & Jose Fernandez: Matt Harvey will be 18+ months removed from Tommy John Surgery when Opening Day rolls around, so he really should be fully recovered and ready to go. The Mets will be careful with him early on, but if he throws at all like he did in 2013 he could be a real steal at his current ADP of 68. Or is that too high for someone coming off elbow surgery? And Jose Fernandez was shut down last May, so can he really pitch as early as mid-July? And would you really use up a roster spot on someone who won't pitch again until possibly after the All-Star break? Man, I want to watch both of these guys this off-season to see what NFBC owners are thinking. Should be fun to watch.

I do not think I can waste a roster spot. I have been burned by projected return dates. Even with probable innings limit, I am all in on Harvey. I can only hope Mr. X is sitting next to me and I grab him JUST as he was SURE I would let him pass to him.

Only if you grab him in the 1st my friend.

[Edwards Kings]

One more thing on Scherzer. We will not know where he lands until Shields is set.

[mbendar16]

For Scherzer, somehow, Boras has the magical powers to get teams to bid against themselves, most recent with Fielder. Since he has priced himself out of so many teams range, that will be to his disadvantage, in my opinion. I think Lester was going to the Cubs all along, and made an extra $20 million from their original offer by making it seem like Red Sox and Giants were viable options. Multiple teams of interest spikes the offers, and unless Detroit outbids themselves, I can't see anyone, including the Yanks, offering Scherzer the Kershaw money he wants. We've seen it before though, and wouldn't be surprised if it happens again.

For Prince and Votto, I suspect their draft position will rise, if proven healthy, as we get closer to the start of the season. Their past 30 hr, 100 rbi production is too enticing to sit there and someone not take a chance in the 4th round or possibly 3rd. Pujols is the best example, as his 2014 was no longer 1st round worthy, but was pretty good, if not a profit, where he was taken in drafts.

Just my thoughts. A Happy New Year to all.

[Edwards Kings]

Mr. Bendar...hope you have had a good winter! How do you feel out your Mutts this year?

I think you are right about Prince and Joey, but it would be nice it they remained an option where they are now.

[GoCrazyFolks]

Obviously I am biased but I still say dont rule out STL on Scherzer. Wainwright's "tired arm" and Wacha's slow return are mixed and troublesome signals. I can't see them forking over Kershaw money but........

Alternate scenario---- STL trades for Price and Detroit then re-signs Scherzer. Price was high on the Redbirds list at the deadline last year and the feeling was mutual, or so I heard.

[mbendar16]

With the wealth of young pitching, it would be nice to roll the dice on a trade for Tulo, but without the Rockies eating a decent portion of his contract, which I don't think they are going to do, it's not going to happen.

Their current roster requires the return of Wright as a superstar, which would make fantasy owners taking him in the 6th round or later very happy. They just don't have enough offense without a 25-30 hr, 100 rbi bat in the middle of the order, which Wright used to be. Their pitching just has too many good options and they should contend based on that. With their recent history of cheapiness (think i saw Dan use in the contract forum), it would be nice to see them make an impact move to try to get the team over the top. If the Padres have enough money to try, how could NY not?

[mbendar16]

Obviously I am biased but I still say dont rule out STL on Scherzer. Wainwright's "tired arm" and Wacha's slow return are mixed and troublesome signals. I can't see them forking over Kershaw money but........

Alternate scenario---- STL trades for Price and Detroit then re-signs Scherzer. Price was high on the Redbirds list at the deadline last year and the feeling was mutual, or so I heard.

Rick, you hit my point exactly here. Trading Price would give Scherzer leverage, which in my opinion, he doesn't have right now. Although risky, it would make sense for Detroit to sign Scherzer at the lowest possible price and then entertain offers for Price if they can't/won't be able to resign him. It gives Detroit the ability to act from a position of strength instead of weakness, and worst case, they have the best 1st 3 in any rotation in baseball.

[Edwards Kings]

With the wealth of young pitching, it would be nice to roll the dice on a trade for Tulo, but without the Rockies eating a decent portion of his contract, which I don't think they are going to do, it's not going to happen.

Their current roster requires the return of Wright as a superstar, which would make fantasy owners taking him in the 6th round or later very happy. They just don't have enough offense without a 25-30 hr, 100 rbi bat in the middle of the order, which Wright used to be. Their pitching just has too many good options and they should contend based on that. With their recent history of cheapiness (think i saw Dan use in the contract forum), it would be nice to see them make an impact move to try to get the team over the top. If the Padres have enough money to try, how could NY not?

Well, you got some young-blood in Cuddyer!

I see your point. With $64M or so committed and only Wright and Granderson locked in past 2016, you would think they would be "players". Nimmo and Herrera could make an impact, but neither carry that knuckle-dragger reputation. Maybe Duda can keep it up. Any sort of rebound from Wright and Granderson to go with Duda, Cuddyer, and to a certain extent D'Arnaud and Murphy should generate a decent amount of runs (looks like Murderers Row compared to the Braves!)

Will they stick with Lagares this year because of his D?

[mbendar16]

I think Lagares is a must with the pitching, as his Gold Glove should show, is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. He is not a liability on offense, but flat out just won't be a 20+ HR guy a lot of centerfielders are.

IF, as you said, multiple players have bounce back years, D'Arnaud continues to improve, then they have the tools to compete with anyone. I would say this about the Mets and every other team on the verge of going from average to contender that there is a big difference playing impact games vs. playing out the season, especially in NY. It will be interesting, and of course, exciting as a fan to see how the team responds if everything goes well and the games matter in August and September.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, you guys have let me down on the off-season baseball talk, but I'll keep trying. Here's two more interesting players to watch:

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NY Yankees: The elbow injury scares me and it should scare everyone who is thinking about drafting him. His ADP in the NFBC right now is 148.12 and he's the 48th Pitcher going off the board, 34th SP overall, but is he a bargain or a bust candidate? He would be an SP3 where he's going now, but he missed most of the second half of last season with the elbow injury and he didn't have surgery to repair it. Is it completely healed or will we see more of the same this year? That's what YOU have to decide. During his first 18 starts before the elbow injury, he was 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 135 Ks in 129.1 IP. He had two September starts after missing 10 weeks to rest the elbow and he was solid in his first outing but horrendous against the Red Sox in his second outing, giving up 7 Earned Runs in 1.2 IP. The Yankees chalked up that last performance to rust, but it's still concerning. Would you take the chance on Tanaka in the 10th or 11th round?

One more since he just signed with Pittsburgh:

Jung-ho Kang, 2B, Pittsburgh: The Pirates just signed this 27-year-old infielder to a four-year, $16 million contract and expect him to step in as their starting second baseman. I have no idea how stats from the Korean Baseball Organization translate to MLB pitcher, but he did hit .356 last year with 40 home runs and 117 RBI in 117 games and he's been seen by pro scouts in International competition. We'll see how it plays out, but Kang's arrival makes that second base position very interesting with so many new guys possibly stepping into starting jobs (Jose Peraza, Roughned Odor, Joe Panik, Rob Refsnyder). I'll be interested to see where he goes in upcoming drafts.

Any thoughts on these two guys?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Okay, you guys have let me down on the off-season baseball talk, but I'll keep trying. Here's two more interesting players to watch:

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NY Yankees: The elbow injury scares me and it should scare everyone who is thinking about drafting him. His ADP in the NFBC right now is 148.12 and he's the 48th Pitcher going off the board, 34th SP overall, but is he a bargain or a bust candidate? He would be an SP3 where he's going now, but he missed most of the second half of last season with the elbow injury and he didn't have surgery to repair it. Is it completely healed or will we see more of the same this year? That's what YOU have to decide. During his first 18 starts before the elbow injury, he was 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 135 Ks in 129.1 IP. He had two September starts after missing 10 weeks to rest the elbow and he was solid in his first outing but horrendous against the Red Sox in his second outing, giving up 7 Earned Runs in 1.2 IP. The Yankees chalked up that last performance to rust, but it's still concerning. Would you take the chance on Tanaka in the 10th or 11th round?

One more since he just signed with Pittsburgh:

Jung-ho Kang, 2B, Pittsburgh: The Pirates just signed this 27-year-old infielder to a four-year, $16 million contract and expect him to step in as their starting second baseman. I have no idea how stats from the Korean Baseball Organization translate to MLB pitcher, but he did hit .356 last year with 40 home runs and 117 RBI in 117 games and he's been seen by pro scouts in International competition. We'll see how it plays out, but Kang's arrival makes that second base position very interesting with so many new guys possibly stepping into starting jobs (Jose Peraza, Roughned Odor, Joe Panik, Rob Refsnyder). I'll be interested to see where he goes in upcoming drafts.

Any thoughts on these two guys?

I don't think the Pirates are moving Neil Walker for Kang.
He'll be in a competition at Shortstop.

[Yah Mule]

I think Lagares is a must with the pitching, as his Gold Glove should show, is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. He is not a liability on offense, but flat out just won't be a 20+ HR guy a lot of centerfielders are.

IF, as you said, multiple players have bounce back years, D'Arnaud continues to improve, then they have the tools to compete with anyone. I would say this about the Mets and every other team on the verge of going from average to contender that there is a big difference playing impact games vs. playing out the season, especially in NY. It will be interesting, and of course, exciting as a fan to see how the team responds if everything goes well and the games matter in August and September.

Lagares would be capable of making a roto impact with his legs if Collins would give him more green lights. Seven of his 13 stolen bases last year came in a nine game period down the stretch.

[Edwards Kings]

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NY Yankees: The elbow injury scares me and it should scare everyone who is thinking about drafting him. His ADP in the NFBC right now is 148.12 and he's the 48th Pitcher going off the board, 34th SP overall, but is he a bargain or a bust candidate? He would be an SP3 where he's going now, but he missed most of the second half of last season with the elbow injury and he didn't have surgery to repair it. Is it completely healed or will we see more of the same this year? That's what YOU have to decide. During his first 18 starts before the elbow injury, he was 12-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 135 Ks in 129.1 IP. He had two September starts after missing 10 weeks to rest the elbow and he was solid in his first outing but horrendous against the Red Sox in his second outing, giving up 7 Earned Runs in 1.2 IP. The Yankees chalked up that last performance to rust, but it's still concerning. Would you take the chance on Tanaka in the 10th or 11th round?

Partially torn UCL...that would be a no in my book. Desparation pick if you find you are getting stumped in pitching....or are a die-hard Yankees fan...who are all crazy anyway...

Jung-ho Kang, 2B, Pittsburgh: The Pirates just signed this 27-year-old infielder to a four-year, $16 million contract and expect him to step in as their starting second baseman. I have no idea how stats from the Korean Baseball Organization translate to MLB pitcher, but he did hit .356 last year with 40 home runs and 117 RBI in 117 games and he's been seen by pro scouts in International competition. We'll see how it plays out, but Kang's arrival makes that second base position very interesting with so many new guys possibly stepping into starting jobs (Jose Peraza, Roughned Odor, Joe Panik, Rob Refsnyder). I'll be interested to see where he goes in upcoming drafts.

If he plays shortstop the MLB way, maybe he unseats Mercer. He will get buzz in the spring and overdrafted. Munenori Kawasaki anyone? I am betting some minor league acclaimation time.

[whale4evr]

Does Billy Beane have a plan or is he just accepting every offer that comes his way?

C Phegley/Vogt
1B Davis
2B Zobrist
3B Lawrie
SS Semien
LF Fuld/Burns
CF Crisp
RF Reddick
DH Butler

SP Gray
SP Kazmir
SP Hahn
SP Pomeranz
SP Griffin/Parker/Chavez

RP Clippard
RP Cook
RP Doolittle

Younger and cheaper, I guess. Flipping Zobrist too?

[Edwards Kings]

Looks like a classic Oakland team.

[GoCrazyFolks]

I am now watching with great interest the supposed interest of STL in Cole Hamels. I am now firmly entrenched in the trade for David Price camp but they are apparently not going to ask for my input.