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This year, more than others, I have seen a lot more drafters with this phrase in chat....
SCREW ADP!
Funny in that no matter where we draft any player, we are still contributing to that adp.
We are only half way through the drafting season. Drafters have found out that David Wright does not deserve a high pick.
He is injured a lot and when healthy, his ball park kicks his ass.
Don't laugh Brandon Belt, same goes for you.
Anyway, lets look at some goings/on concerning adp



I like Kris Bryant as much as the next guy. Even drafted him a couple of times. Still, drafting him is inviting heartache. This year's version of Kris Bryant is like last year's version of Gregory Polanco.
And how did that turn out for Polanco drafters?
Bryant's adp is 100.
Yesterday, Cubs fans and Bryant owners were salivating when Luis Valbuena was traded. Leaving third base open for Bryant.
Then, Theo and Cubs execs provided the buzz kill that this did not alter the time frame for Bryant to become the Cubs third baseman.
As most of you know, this is code for, 'We know this kid is good and we're going to stash him away for at least two months to get an extra contract year from him'.
As a fan and fantasy baseball player, THIS is the number one rule I'd like changed when MLB and the union have negotiations.
The players union loves it. They know that some hanger-on'er who is making three million bucks because of time served is playing instead of more talented (and cheaper) kids like Bryant or Polanco.

Yovani Gallardo was traded to Texas yesterday. Gallardo's stock was already at the penny stage, and this won't help. He goes to park that can kill pitchers like himself. And his career was already 'Dead Man Walking'.
Like the Valbuena trade, this effected a fantasy relevant player in Jeff Nelson.
There were rumors that Nelson could be turned into a Closer.
Now, he will be a starting fixture for the Brewers. I'm betting this will help his adp a little.



Miguel Cabrera was the number two adp pick for awahile. Then three. Now four.
Fantasy players don't like injury. Cabrera has had an injury of one sort or another for a year and a half.
The difference between Cabrera and other players is that he will play through injury.
It's noble. Especially mid-season when we need him in our lineup. Relying on him in January when he has just had a walking boot removed for a long period is a tough pick for drafters. And adp is reflecting that.

For me, the surprise adp is Felix Hernandez at nine. The lowest he has been taken in any draft is 17.
Is it the better team being built around him?
Is it that he is considered 'reliable' in the Tommy John age?
Is it that drafters craving more pitchers, even with top picks?
The answer may be all of the above.
Any which way, King Felix is enjoying the highest adp he has ever had.

Positionality still reigns with adp.
Anthony Rendon has a 12 adp. Great numbers and multi positionality will get you a first round adp every time.
Buster Posey and Robinson Cano are second rounders. There positions make that so.
Victor Martinez has an adp of 35. He is 1B eligible.
Without that designation, he is more likely a fifth round choice.
And poor Joe Mauer shows how we only draft some players highly because of position.
Mauer, who has seen first round action in his career has an adp of 223.

We have the new kids in town.
Nobody, but nobody has any idea on these players contributions.
They could be stars. They could end up in the minor leagues.
Mookie Betts has an adp of 106
Rusney Castillo has an adp of 116
Jorge Soler has an adp of 121
Yasmani Tomas has an adp of 151
Roll the dice.

Dellin Betances stock has risen most during the off season. In first drafts, he hent as low as pick 208.
That was before the David Robertson signing.
Now, he has been picked as high as 46 or the first pick of round four.
His adp is 99. By March, it'll be in the 60-75 range.
Jayson Werth is going the other way, with possibilities that he won't be ready to play come spring.
He was drafted as high as 83 or the eighth pick of the sixth round.
Now, as low as 203.
He is 125. Roto reports will determine his rise and fall.

Ryan Braun's adp is 26 this year. His drafters are secretly hoping he cheats.
Afterall, Braun's .266/68/19/81/11 numbers with over 500 at bats, does not justify a second round choice.
That is close to Torii Hunter territory of .286/71/17/83/4
Hunter has an adp of 261.
And, I know it'll never happen, but fantasy-wise, there is a player I wish that would take some PED's.
Dustin Pedroia.
He can't stay healthy and his adp has dropped like a rock.
It would be fun to see that swing, powerized.

And last, Josh Hamilton.
Remember him?
Former overall number one pick.
Last year, he had the worst numbers of his career. If any player can be washed up at 33, it's Hamilton.
And adp is punishing him.
His adp is 201. That is three ahead of a pitcher who will be recovering from Tommy John during the first half of 2015.
Jose Fernandez.

Which brings us full circle.
If I asked adp'ers who they would take first, a full year of Kris Bryant or a full year of Jose Fernandez, I'm pretty sure, at this moment, the answer would overwhelmingly be Fernandez.
Now, I know that Fernandez may not be 'Fernandez' when he gets back, but the only difference between Fernandez and Bryant is knowing that Fernandez will miss the first half.
Bryant drafters are hoping for sooner.
Over 100 adp picks early is a heap of hope.

Great STUFF as always Dan

Before I even entered the thread my answer to the question was "HELL NO"
One of the funniest things we see every year is new players who think they know exactly how the first few rounds are going to go and somewhere in the first round someone takes a guy they want and the eyes go wide and the tears well up


and you are showing old grey cells with Jeff Nelson (former Mariner and Yankee) - the new Brewer starter is Jimmy Nelson

Captain Hook wrote:and you are showing old grey cells with Jeff Nelson (former Mariner and Yankee) - the new Brewer starter is Jimmy Nelson

Right you are, Perry!
At least I didn't call him 'Major Anthony Nelson'! I'd really be showing the age then!
Darn, just did...

Sorry, but ADP is very valuable...the most valuable means/tool to properly determine opportunity cost in the first 10-15 rounds. Kind of like...well...magic...

It is valuable to some.
Dependable? I don't think so.
For several reasons.
The largest are the drafters themselves. There are many different levels. Many.
Imagine going to a Braves game. Like our drafts, they paid for the event. But the baseball knowledge from fan to fan differs.
Same in our drafts.
We get drafters who like Cubs. We get drafters who like multi position players. We have sharks. We have newly hatched guppies.
We treat adp as if voting for a person to office, where each vote counts the same.

To illustrate this point. I was in draft with some top notch fellas recently. A former winner of the Main Event. A Hall of Famer.
Most drafters in the room had won a Main Event title or three.
ADP was trashed.
David Wright who has an adp of 95 was taken in the ninth round. The drafter did not cry VALUE! In fact, he seemed a little embarrassed.

For 'the big drafts' in March/April, adp can be very misleading. The time frame of October through March is a juke.
A lot of things happen during that long period.
It's taken Dellin Betances over a month to get close to a rightful place among adp. And he's probably still not there.
Again, for the big drafts, this adp is a result of a different format. One, without faab. Closers are generally taken sooner, drafters knowing that another will not be available later. Multi/positional players are more relevant in 50 rounders than in faab drafts. Starting pitching gets a boost in 50 rounders because there are so many pitching injuries and faab is not there as a safety net.

I understand how faab can be valuable in some ways. I do.
But dependable?
Probably as dependable as Major Healy

How many players from last year's first round actually returned first round production?

1 Trout
2 Cabrera
3 Goldschmidt
3 McCutchen
5 Gonzalez
6 Braun
7 Kershaw
8 Davis
9 Harper
10 Jones
11 Ramirez
12 Cano
13 Fielder
14 Ellsbury
15 Tulowitzki

20 Gomez
25 Stanton
78 Abreu
92 Altuve
215 Brantley
238 Rendon
298 DGordon

Yah Mule wrote:How many players from last year's first round actually returned first round production?

1 Trout
2 Cabrera
3 Goldschmidt
3 McCutchen
5 Gonzalez
6 Braun
7 Kershaw
8 Davis
9 Harper
10 Jones
11 Ramirez
12 Cano
13 Fielder
14 Ellsbury
15 Tulowitzki

20 Gomez
25 Stanton
78 Abreu
92 Altuve
215 Brantley
238 Rendon
298 DGordon

Wonderful point...

DOUGHBOYS wrote:It is valuable to some.
Dependable? I don't think so.

Agreed. You cannot assume the ADP will hold draft-to-draft. However ADP CAN be used in tandem with statistical inference (i.e. you have an XX% chance at that player, that round, that draft position) and that CAN help the smart player (obviously excludes myself) build a good team. The later the round the less the value, but early on...nice...

ADP gives a nice general overview of how talent is being distributed. We all know how we value each player and we also have a sense of the perceived value of each player by NFBC consensus. And perceived value is important to us because we want to get the players we like, but we don't want to waste draft capital by taking them too soon. If a player's ADP breaks down to 12th round and you think a player's true value is closer to ninth round, you have to decide exactly when to pull the trigger. Picking this player in round 11 would seem safe, but it only takes one other drafter who likes him more than most to beat you to the punch. Taking him in round 10 almost guarantees you'll get a lesser player in round 11 than you would have if you waited. As Dough pointed out, some sharp drafter might simply end the suspense for you by calling his name before your pick in round 9. I considered it a sign of personal growth when I stopped telling myself those guys reached.

Yah Mule wrote:ADP gives a nice general overview of how talent is being distributed. We all know how we value each player and we also have a sense of the perceived value of each player by NFBC consensus. And perceived value is important to us because we want to get the players we like, but we don't want to waste draft capital by taking them too soon. If a player's ADP breaks down to 12th round and you think a player's true value is closer to ninth round, you have to decide exactly when to pull the trigger. Picking this player in round 11 would seem safe, but it only takes one other drafter who likes him more than most to beat you to the punch. Taking him in round 10 almost guarantees you'll get a lesser player in round 11 than you would have if you waited. As Dough pointed out, some sharp drafter might simply end the suspense for you by calling his name before your pick in round 9. I considered it a sign of personal growth when I stopped telling myself those guys reached.

Perfect.
And this leads us to VALUE. Getting David Wright in the ninth round when his adp is 95 is not value.
You've simply beat adp. There are no prizes for beating adp. Many teams finish in last place beating adp.
I prefer to think that the 15 drafters who bypassed Wright in the sixth, seventh, and eighth rounds may have been smarter than the whole who gave Wright his #95 adp.

I know some drafters who still go after VALUE. They simply believe in adp so much, that they'll even let adp dictate their pick. If loving Pablo Sandoval at Fenway Park this year and David Wright (Sorry Mr. Wright and his drafters, you're just an example), should we draft Wright because he 'fell' to us or take the beloved Sandoval? If feeling in our heart that Sandoval will put up monster numbers, but taking Wright because he 'fell', we are giving up on our study and convictions and merely following the crowd. Hence, the word, guppy.

What seemingly looks like an uninitiated "value" grab may very well be a disciplined contrarian choice. It's interesting to see when the chips are down the players who everyone can't stomach taking.

To quote the irascible Ricky Roma..."I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion... If everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way..."

or "the masses be asses."

Quahogs wrote:What seemingly looks like an uninitiated "value" grab may very well be a disciplined contrarian choice. It's interesting to see when the chips are down the players who everyone can't stomach taking.

To quote the irascible Ricky Roma..."I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion... If everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way..."

That is a good point about when the chips are down, who doesn't want who. That is one thing I will miss about the high dollar leagues. As a guy that trusts the "market" more than most I often had guys in big leagues that I owned nowhere else. And typically did not work out well.