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The final data is in for the 22 NFBC main event leagues and the two Ultimate Draft Leagues and we can finally see where the money winners came from. Here are the final tallies from 2006:



Owners who won league titles came from the following draft spots:



No. 1: 2 owners

No. 2: 0

No. 3: 0

No. 4: 2

No. 5: 1

No. 6: 1

No. 7: 2

No. 8: 0

No. 9: 3

No. 10: 3

No. 11: 1

No. 12: 1

No. 13: 3

No. 14: 1

No. 15: 4



That's 8 out of 24 winners from the last three draft spots and 16 of 24 spots from the last seven draft spots. Interesting.



Here are the second place league winners and where they drafted:



No. 1: 0

No. 2: 1

No. 3: 2

No. 4: 2

No. 5: 3

No. 6: 1

No. 7: 1

No. 8: 3

No. 9: 3

No. 10: 1

No. 11: 3

No. 12: 2

No. 13: 3

No. 14: 2

No. 15: 0



8 out of 24 second place finishers came from the top five draft spots and 10 out of 24 runners-up came from the bottom five draft spots. Interesting again.



Now here are the third place finishers and where they drafted:



No. 1: 2

No. 2: 1

No. 3: 2

No. 4: 1

No. 5: 0

No. 6: 1

No. 7: 2

No. 8: 1

No. 9: 0

No. 10: 3

No. 11: 2

No. 12: 2

No. 13: 1

No. 14: 4

No. 15: 2



Here's the top prize winners from each spot, with the total winnings from each spot (I fudged this a bit as the Ultimate League winners would have thrown the numbers off, so I used just NFBC main event winnings for those two leagues to keep this on average):



No. 1: 4, $11,500

No. 2: 2, $3,000

No. 3: 4, $6,000

No. 4: 5, $15,250

No. 5: 4, $11,750

No. 6: 3, $8,000

No. 7: 5, $13,750

No. 8: 4, $7,500

No. 9: 3, $15,000

No. 10: 7, $19,500

No. 11: 6, $13,250

No. 12: 5, $11,000

No. 13: 7, $22,500

No. 14: 7, $12,500

No. 15: 6, $21,500



Any thoughts?

It's also interesting to note that out of our Top 20 overall finishers, they were interspersed among the four cities almost identically according to the final number of teams. The Top 20 showed the following owners from each city:



8 from Las Vegas (40%, 41% of main event participants drafted from Las Vegas)

6 from New York (32% of top 20, 30% drafted in New York)

5 from Chicago

1 from Tampa



There was some pre-Draft Day talk about Tampa having too many new members and that it could affect the overall contest. That didn't turn out to be true as the highest ranking Tampa team was 18th overall and those three leagues were extremely competitive with league champs finishing with 105.5 points, 107 and 117.



The league that had the most Top 20 finishers was Chicago League 2, which had teams ranked fourth overall, sixth and 17th. Sandi Kleemann finished 17th overall, but didn't even win any money as she finished fourth in Chicago League 2. Ouch. Great job Sandi and sorry about the tough finish.



I'll see if I can dig up any other stats, but so far these have been fun to discover.

Greg,



Is there a similar thread post-2005 or post-2004? It'd be interesting to see if anything held true over a 2 or 3 year sample.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

It's also interesting to note that out of our Top 20 overall finishers, they were interspersed among the four cities almost identically according to the final number of teams. The Top 20 showed the following owners from each city:



8 from Las Vegas (40%, 41% of main event participants drafted from Las Vegas)

6 from New York (32% of top 20, 30% drafted in New York)

5 from Chicago

1 from Tampa



There was some pre-Draft Day talk about Tampa having too many new members and that it could affect the overall contest. That didn't turn out to be true as the highest ranking Tampa team was 18th overall and those three leagues were extremely competitive with league champs finishing with 105.5 points, 107 and 117.



The league that had the most Top 20 finishers was Chicago League 2, which had teams ranked fourth overall, sixth and 17th. Sandi Kleemann finished 17th overall, but didn't even win any money as she finished fourth in Chicago League 2. Ouch. Great job Sandi and sorry about the tough finish.



I'll see if I can dig up any other stats, but so far these have been fun to discover. Eveyone should chip in 10 bucks and get Sandi a grand, it is not right to finish 17th and come up empty- that is worse luck than bjoak has on a Friday evening in an Oakland pub...

I think I posted some similar stuff the first two years but god knows where it may be. I'll look around in my Word files as I also likely had it on a site

my post from October 2005:



In an attempt to fuel the argument over the best draft slot, I offer the following for your reflection. The key is money won. So what slot was worth the most money? I am counting only league awards here. The several ties were accounted for. Here is the breakdown.



Slot 8 - $29,000

Slot 3 - $17,250

Slot 12 - $17,250

Slot 7 - $14,250

Slot 5 - $9,625

Slot 6 - $9,000

Slot 1 - $8,500

Slot 9 - $7,500

Slot 11 - $6,750

Slot 2 - $6,125

Slot 14 - $5,750

Slot 15 - $5,750

Slot 10 - $5,000

Slot 4 - $4,250

Slot 13 - $4,000



Many like to group by 5’s to equate to front, middle and end. Here is that breakdown:



Slots 6-10 - $64,750

Slots 1-5 - $45,750

Slots 11-15 - $39,500



Overall money slots were

1st – slot 8

2nd – slot 8

3rd – slot 13

4th – slot 4

5th – slot 7

6th – slot 2

7th – slot 3

8th – slot 11



Interesting that the two lowest paying league slots actually were 3rd and 4th overall.



Finally, league championships by slot are:

Slot 8 - 4.33

Slot 3 - 3

Slot 12 - 2

Slot 7 - 2

Slot 9 - 1.33

Slot 1 - 1

Slot 2 - 1

Slot 6 - 1

Slot 10 - 1

Slot 11 - 1

Slot 14 -1

Slot 15 - 1

Slot 5 - 0.33

Slot 4 - 0

Slot 13 - 0

Good stuff Mike and very interesting that 2005 was nothing like 2006. I don't have the data for 2004, but I know the back-end slots didn't fare as well as the middle or front that year. I'll also look around to see if I can find any posts or data from our initial year.

Mike, this is from your post from Dec. 30, 2004. Happy New Year and good job!



The draft positions of the league champions were:



#3 – 4 times

#12 – 2 times

#1 – 1 time

#4 – 1 time

#5 – 1 time

#6 – 1 time

#7 – 1 time

#9 – 1 time

#10 – 1 time





Exerpted from my October 8th Hight & tight article in CREATiVESPORTS.COM



My contention is an earlier article was that drafting in the middel was best, floowed by the front 1/3 with the back 1/3 being the worst.



Mike

Wow, data from only 13 leagues. How the hell did we make money in 2004? Oh yeah, that's right, we didn't. We lost our a** that year! I'm glad it's now 2006 and we're working on what should be a historic 2007 NFBC! Thanks everyone.

This is all good data and in my mind supports the contention that picking your spot is important. Each year, the talent pool is different - sometimes there is a few top guys, other times, a more even draft. Frankly, I think the data this year shows that the consensus picks in the 3/4 slot didn't do as predicted (aka Teixera or Vlad).



All this analysis is fun, but, since people wont be pursuaded one way or the other, why not let people chose? the people who don't care shouldn't care...



spy

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Greg,



Is there a similar thread post-2005 or post-2004? It'd be interesting to see if anything held true over a 2 or 3 year sample. Greg, glad to see you found 2004.



The total randomness of the change from year to year is exactly what I've seen for 22 years now.



Can't wait til til the "matters" crowd go nuts the year #1 finally is at the top. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:



Kudos to those that did the research.

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

I think the data this year shows that the consensus picks in the 3/4 slot didn't do as predicted (aka Teixera or Vlad).





spy Good post... You are right that it is key to try and figure out each year before hand.



3/4 historically "tend" to be "barely" lesser spots because many players drafted later in the first, and the second rise to and many times above 3/4 value by the end of the season.

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

This is all good data and in my mind supports the contention that picking your spot is important. Each year, the talent pool is different - sometimes there is a few top guys, other times, a more even draft. Frankly, I think the data this year shows that the consensus picks in the 3/4 slot didn't do as predicted (aka Teixera or Vlad).



All this analysis is fun, but, since people wont be pursuaded one way or the other, why not let people chose? the people who don't care shouldn't care...



spy You will be surprised by how many teams did well with Tex on their roster. Obviously they survived the first half and made good pickups in FAAB, but when I went through the first place teams I found several with Tex as their first picks. I hope to have time to find common players on the first place teams and list those here. All of the data we can compile together is good off-season fodder!

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

This is all good data and in my mind supports the contention that picking your spot is important. Each year, the talent pool is different - sometimes there is a few top guys, other times, a more even draft. Frankly, I think the data this year shows that the consensus picks in the 3/4 slot didn't do as predicted (aka Teixera or Vlad).



All this analysis is fun, but, since people wont be pursuaded one way or the other, why not let people chose? the people who don't care shouldn't care...



spy You will be surprised by how many teams did well with Tex on their roster. Obviously they survived the first half and made good pickups in FAAB, but when I went through the first place teams I found several with Tex as their first picks. I hope to have time to find common players on the first place teams and list those here. All of the data we can compile together is good off-season fodder! [/QUOTE]Greg any guesses as to who may be on the list- I will throw a few out Verlander, Liriano, Morneau outside of the totally obvious ones like Soriano and Howard.

I just took a glance at the top 30 teams overall, and Howard only appeared on one roster until Who Dat is at #30. I found that rather peculilar. I'd be interested in seeing Greg's list of commoners?

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I just took a glance at the top 30 teams overall, and Howard only appeared on one roster until Who Dat is at #30. I found that rather peculilar. I'd be interested in seeing Greg's list of commoners? that is peculiar. One theory on that is the type of owner who took R.Howard where he did - early to mid 3rd were the type that was held sway over ST stats and young player/rookie touting. Howard generally didnt fall to the end of the 3rd round which means he was taken over more proven players like Konerko/Delgado/V.Wells etc. Maybe this propensity to reach a bit didnt quite pay off down the line and the rest of those owners rosters are littered with young/rookie uber touted type players like Cantu, peralta, Hermidia, Kotchman, D.Johnson, Del Young, etc. that didnt pay off.



Again, just a theory.



Q

I had the 4th pick and took Tex. he was dissapointing, but still put up quality stats. Albeit not the ones I was hoping for. I would agree with Quahogs that maybe people who took Howard might also reach for other young guys that didn't pan out. 1 guy in my league took an awful lot of young guys and way too early I thought. He got Weeks in the 4th round. I liked Weeks, but that was just too high. He finished middle of the pack. Not a bad year, but taking more proven players might have done him more good. My own rule is nothing but money in the back guys for the first 5 rounds at least. It also strikes me that this is won not in the first few rounds, but in later rounds. Finding the quality guys in round 15, 18, 23, and 30. Those are not waste picks. They're the guys who make or break.

Here's one more fact about the 22 NFBC league winners in the main event: Four of our 22 league champs were first year players. That's 18 percent of our league champs, which is lower than our total list of first year players last season (27 percent). The debut champs included Gino Yu in Las Vegas, Lopi Asch in Las Vegas, Matt Mickle in New York and Dave Kerpen in Tampa. Those owners drafted from the following spots, respectively: 14th, 15th, 13th and 13th. Great job everyone.

Hey Greg, Thanks for identifying TU La Daddies as Dave Kerpen, looking forward to equal treatment for teams with two owners next year.



Thanks again,

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Here's the top prize winners from each spot, with the total winnings from each spot (I fudged this a bit as the Ultimate League winners would have thrown the numbers off, so I used just NFBC main event winnings for those two leagues to keep this on average):



No. 1: 4, $11,500

No. 2: 2, $3,000

No. 3: 4, $6,000

No. 4: 5, $15,250

No. 5: 4, $11,750

No. 6: 3, $8,000

No. 7: 5, $13,750

No. 8: 4, $7,500

No. 9: 3, $15,000

No. 10: 7, $19,500

No. 11: 6, $13,250

No. 12: 5, $11,000

No. 13: 7, $22,500

No. 14: 7, $12,500

No. 15: 6, $21,500

One of the things I forgot to do on this thread was to total up the money winners from the top three spots in those 24 NFBC leagues. Here's the total of first, second and third place finishers in the 22 main event and 2 Ultimate Leagues:



No. 1 spot – 4 teams finished first, second or third

No. 2 – 2

No. 3 – 4

No. 4 – 5

No. 5 – 4

No. 6 – 3

No. 7 – 5

No. 8 – 4

No. 9 – 6

No. 10 – 7

No. 11 – 6

No. 12 – 5

No. 13 – 7

No. 14 – 7

No. 15 - 6



Pretty interesting numbers from 2006, that's for sure.

Baseball does balance out fairly well. KDS works OK here.



Can't say the same for football.