Live Chat With Shawn Childs: Friday, 8:30 pm ET

[MadCow Sez]

CarGo or Kemp?

[Fourslot40]

Shawn,

What is your philosophy regarding heavy workloads (unusual)? How would you approach pitchers like Ventura and Baumgarner that had heavy workloads in the prior year? Do you drop them down a peg? If so, how far?

Thanks in advance.

[Edwards Kings]

"Red Sox manager John Farrell said Friday that, as long as he's healthy, Shane Victorino is "our right fielder."
Farrell added that Victorino, who battled back and hamstring issues in 2014 (eventually needing back surgery in August), is a "full go" right now. The general feeling has been that Mookie Betts was the favorite to start over Victorino in right, so this news throws some cold water onto his fantasy prospects. However, with the injury-prone Victorino and Hanley Ramirez manning the corner outfield spots and the inexperienced Rusney Castillo in center, there's still a good chance Betts sees ample playing time. If healthy, Victorino should have some fantasy value left in the tank, but that's a big "if." "

Are you buying any of this Shawn? Or is this a set-up to pump up Victorino's (seemingly non-existent) trade value?

[Floyd]

Shawn, what do you think has changed the most strategically about competing for the Main Event vs. say 5 years back?

Also, I noticed in one of your published cheat sheets that you had certain players, for example Outfielders, listed as "balance" players. How do you deploy your list of "balance" players in actual practice of a draft?

[CraigW]

Shawn what are you thoughts on Jean Segura? Was last year a lost year due to the loss of his child? Is he a big bounceback candidate for you or is being relegated to the bottom of the order going to hinder his value?

[CraigW]

How do you see the Dodgers handling Joc Pederson? If/when he wins the job out of spring where do you see him batting in the lineup?
How long does Cleveland go with Jose Ramirez at SS, or will Lindor win the job outright?
Is this the year Bryce Harper stays healthy and lives up to some of the expectations?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Mordecai Brown was a great pitcher back in his day.
'Three Fingers' Brown would be a nickname not given anybody now, in our politically correct world.
My question is, as a bowler, would he have had an advantage or disadvantage over others?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Your strategy in the early years was "75 SBs, 75 HRs in the first three rounds." What do you want from your first three hitters these days? And do you now take a Starting Pitcher with one of your first three picks instead?

[Greg Ambrosius]

When you and Bob Mazur talk to each other on the phone and each of you have your Bluetooth pieces in, can either one of you hear what the other is saying? Doesn't the whole conversation sound like the bad speakers during an order through the McDonald's drive-through?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Should we be worried that DFS is going to take over the sports world or is there still a place in our hobby for season-long games? After making it to Las Vegas in football and having a shot at the Fanduel $2 million grand prize, you saw first-hand how great those national contests can be. Do they continue to get bigger and bigger in every sport? Is DFS baseball a different animal than DFS football?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Longtime listener, first time caller:

Speaking of bowling, my boy loves to watch Jason Belmonte on the PBA circuit. Have you ever rolled a complete game throwing the ball like he does, with no fingers in the ball? It's amazing how good he is with that stupid form!!

Okay, I'll hang up now and listen.

[pabalouch]

Shawn,
Could you give your opinion on players drafted in rounds 3, 4, and 5 that could return first round value?
Just looking for a couple names and why.

thanks

[pabalouch]

How much do you consider the adp in your draft strategy and can you name players you like that are being drafted much lower
than they should be?

[CraigW]

Two stars of 2013 that were busts in 2014, Chris Davis and Jason Kipnis, what do you expect from both of them? Either return to fantasy glory?

[Chest Rockwell]

Can you give some suggestions on how you budget heading in to an auction? How much for pitching and hitting?

Within each sub category do you have an idea how many dollar players you want? What you want to spend on your big money core players?

[CC's Desperados]

Welcome to 2015 NFBC baseball season. It's been a couple of years since I've done one of these chats. The growth of the DC's and the 12 team online championship has brought a ton of new players to the game over the over the last 2 seasons. I thought it would make sense to explain who I am to the new members before getting into the questions.

My name is Shawn Childs. I will be entering my 12th season in the NFBC. I was very fortunate to have success in my first season, when the game was at its purest. I sat down at the draft table with my cheat sheets with no idea how the player pool would be drafts or what was needed to win. In a way, I probably had an edge over many players as I had played in a mixed 16 team league in the previous couple of years. My failure in my home league in 2001 was probably a big reason why I fell short in my rookie season. I drafted Ryan Dempster (4.94 ERA and 1.356 whip) in 2001 after he struck out 2009 batter in 2000. His lack of control led me down the dirty path in ERA and whip, which led to me finishing about 4th that season after dominating the league in 2000 (146 out of 160 possible points).

As I headed to Vegas in year one, I remember two important thought in my game plan. First, I thought it was important to secure a couple of solid closers in the draft. I thought chasing saves in the free agent pool would be very expensive. My lack of understanding of how to manage my team to compete for an overall championship was a big downfall over the first 3 months of the year.
The second important thought was to avoid high walk pitchers that would invite huge whip risk. This one thought led to me missing on a couple of key starters from round 11 to 20.

I believe I drew the 10 hole (possibly 11) in my first draft and these were my first 7 picks:

1- Manny Ramirez (.308 with 108 runs, 43 HR's, and 130 RBI)
2- Randy Johnson (16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 whip with 290 K's in 245.7 innings)
3-Derrek Lee (.278 with 90 runs, 32 HR's, 98 RBI, and 12 SB's)
4- Keith Foulke (5-3 with a 2.17 ERA and .094 whip with 32 SV's and 79 K's in 83 innings). I could have won the overall if I took Mariano Rivera instead. I remember debating the two. It was Foulke's first year in Boston after saving 43 games in 2003 with the A's. Rivera saved a career high 53 games with a 1.94 ERA). The homer in me was my downfall.
5-Johnny Damon (.304 with 123 runs, 20 HR's, 94 RBI, and 19 SB's)
6- Miguel Cabrera (.294 with 101 runs, 33 HR's, 112 RBI, and 5 SB's)
7-Jimmy Rollins (.289 with 119 runs, 14 HR's, 73 RBI, and 30 SB's).

My losing turn in the draft was the 12th and 13th round. I thought Francisco Rodriguez would steal the closing job for the Angels (4-1 with 1.82 ERA and 1.00 whip with 12 SV's and 123 K's in 84 innings). I pretty much pitched him as the 3rd reliever over the first month of the season. This is a losing strategy in a chase for an overall title. In the 13th, I took Rafael Soriano. I thought he was win a starting job after pitching well in that role at AAA in 2013 (4-3 with a 3.19 ERA with 63 K's in 62 innings (10 starts). He started the year in the bullpen. After 3 games, he was on the DL. A month later he was headed for TJ Surgery.

In the end, team fell one solid starter away from winning plus I never found speed on the wire late in the year.
Over the next couple of season, the game started to evolved where fantasy players had winning results and category targets.

As each season passed, the owner pool has improved plus fantasy players have ADP's and many draft results to formulate game plans. The player flow continues to change as well as the value of the available talent.

As a player, I had the most success as a balanced approach with a weakness for buying up the middle talent (2B, SS, and C). I've have lost many times by buying the hot 2B from the previous seasons - Rickie Weeks in 2011 (Hit .269 in 210 with 29 HR's, 83 RBI, and 11 SB's), Bill Hall in 2007 (Hit .270 in 2006 with 35 HR's, 85 RBI, and 8 SB's). and Ben Zobrist in 2010 (Hit .297 in 2009 with 27 HR's, 91 RBI, and 17 SB's). just to name a few. I've dreamt of finding the next Mike Piazza way too many times. I couple of years back I thought it was very important to draft a 75/75 core with your first 3 picks. I still believe in this, but the change of the player pool forces a winning team address the rising aces in the game. The goal is still the same, but it may take 5 picks now to secure your first 3 bats depending on your draft position and starting player.
I've always wanted to one of the best players in this game. I can't achieve that success without many failures to help me make better decisions in the future. Sometimes we just lose by being in the wrong seat at the wrong time. Other we get beat by game plan and injuries.

In a way, I approach the game of fantasy baseball like the game of chess. I sure everyone would like to win every game we play, but that isn't going happen at this level. The hope here is to break even in a bad season. When playing this game at home or on ESPN or Yahoo, many fantasy players would have the most success because their biggest asset with their ability to be the first to the computer when an injury created a possible winning move. The NFBC eats up that skill set. In order to be the best player in the game, you need to understand the quality of your opponents, understand draft flow, team structure, and free agency.

When playing against experience players, the value of certain important will change. Against less experience players, a top fantasy player will have more outs to finish their roster.

One of my biggest weakness is riding a player with a long resume into the ground.

Over the last 6 years, I've written a ton content on the NFBC with the hopes of helping others be better at the game. I've bounced around in couple of sites trying to find a long term partner. This year scout.com has given me the chance to place my content on site that is committed to developing premium content. Over the last 2 months, I've done the research for all 30 teams. I'm in the process of doing the projections for all batters with pitchers to follow shortly. I will put together a cheat sheet in a way that I will use in Vegas. I will release the AL and NL Auction prices prior to the LABR auctions in the first week in March. When I return, I will convert this results into 15 team mixed auction results.

In season, Scout.com has asked me maintain the ranking plus I'm planning on doing a closer report and waiver wire piece each. The direction of the waiver wire report will go in a couple of different directions depending on the audience. My skill set is ideally suited for the NFBC game. As the same time, I'd like to find a way to add something in the daily baseball space.

My goal isn't to be a player pusher or give a fantasy player an instant winner in their draft. I make just as many mistake as the next guy. I'm just hoping to get more right than wrong. In the player pool, we are really only looking for a players direction - up, down, or repeat.

The ultimate goal is to make you think to improve your decision making.

Here's the link to one team profile for the 2015 season:

http://fantasy.scout.com/story/1511232

http://fantasy.scout.com/story/1509640- ... -kit?s=532

They also gave me a promo link to sign up for the 9 months for $7.95. In essence, you get, for the price of a magazine, a full season of baseball with content from Dr. Roto and Tommy G for the daily games. In addition, you will have all the access to all the other sports as well.

Here's the link:

https://secure.scout.com/a.z?s=532&p=12

The link should last for about one half hour after this chat.

Thanks for your support...

[CC's Desperados]

Stroman or Smyly?

Stroman:

Stroman was called up in early May to pitching out of the bullpen. After getting crushed for 8 runs and 12 base runners in 3 innings, Marcus was shipped back to AAA. In his 7 starts at AAA, Stroman had a 3.03 ERA with 45 K's in 35.7 innings. Over the last 4 months of the year, he went 9-5 with a 3.27 ERA and 101 K's in 118.3 innings. His ride did have plenty of speed bumps as Marcus allowed 5 runs in 4 of his 8 starts from Mid July to late August (4.89 ERA). His K rate (1.9) was at an elite level from jump street with a subpar K rate (7.6) when you consider his minor league success (10.6). In the minors, Marcus went 14-9 record with a 3.24 ERA with 197 K's in 166.7 innings. His AFB was 93.5 with a solid GB rate (53.8 %). Marcus threw a curveball as his #2 pitch followed closely by a cutter. He had success throwing a changeup and slider as well. HIs HR/FB rate (6.5 %) was in a very good area. He had most of his success against LH batters (.232), but he did allow 19 of 29 walks to the lefties. Very intriguing skill set with high upside when his K rate moves into an elite area. His full arsenal gives him plus potential. With 165+ innings on his 2014 resume, 15 wins and 200 K's are well within reach.

Smyly:

Smyly really didn't pitch well as a starter for the Tigers (3.93 ERA with 93 K's in 99.3 innings). Tampa made a strong play for him at the trade deadline in a deal that included David Price. The Rays unlocked the keys to his upside. He threw 68 % first strike with Tampa compared to 59.9 % with Detroit. This led to him being almost unhittable (25 hits in 47.7 innings). His HR/9 rate went for 1.2 to 0.8. His walk rate (2.1 - 2.6 with the Tigers) and K rate (8.3 - 7.6 with the Tigers) also made steps forward. It just shows the miracle of being ahead in the count. Drew dominated lefties (.171 with a .285 SLG %). 36 of his 42 walks were to RH batters (.264). His AFB (89.9) was a step down for his season in the bullpen (90.9). His #2 pitch was a curveball, which had more value as a starter as the expense of his cutter. Smyly is a FB pitcher (43.4 %). He has a career 3.26 ERA in the majors with a solid walk rate (2.5) and K rate (8.4). With a 153 inning season under his belt, Smyly should be in good position to add more length to his resume. Possible 15 wins with 175+ K's.

I see Stroman having more overall upside with the Blue Jays offense giving him more upside in wins. Both player are intriguing. I could see more fight for Stroman especially if he pitches well this spring.

[CC's Desperados]

DeGrom or A. Wood?

DeGrom:

My biggest pet peeve in fantasy baseball is a young player outperforming his minor league resume in his first season in the majors. Jacob has a career 3.62 ERA in the minors with 267 K's in 323.3 innings. His walk rate (2.4) fell in line with his minor league career. For some reason, his K rate (9.2) was much higher than any season in the minors (7.4). DeGrom is an older prospect as he missed the 2011 season with TJ surgery. His growth is most likely tied to the development of his changeup, which gave him the most value against lefties (.212). He also throws a slider and curveball. Jacob had almost equal success against RH (.231) and LH (.224) batters. His skill set made a huge step forward after the All Star break (8-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 99 K's in 85.7 innings). The best part was his growth in his walk rate (2.0). Short resume of elite success, but he skill set did have growth. I love to say his success is repeatable, but I need to see more. I expect 200 innings with a minimum of 175 K's. His ERA should draft back over 3.00 with upside in whip due his solid command.

Wood:

Wood was a huge asset in 6 of his first 7 starts (1.80 ERA with 42 K's in 40 innings - bombed in his other start {7 runs in 5 innings}). He was bounced from the starting rotation when Gavin Floyd returned from TJ surgery. Over the next month or so, Alex struggled in relief (4.70 ERA). Wood pitched at an elite level over his last 17 starts (2.43 ERA with 107 K's in 111.3 innings). He had the most success against lefties (.227). His AFB (89.8 - sinker) isn't elite and it was a step down from 2013 (91.7). Alex has a plus changeup and curveball. His walk rate (2.4) finished in line with his minor league resume while his K rate (8.9) repeated his success in his short innings in 2013. His ERA (2.78) did overachieve due to a plus LOB % (80.2 %). Wood had a career 1.86 ERA in the minors with 122 K's in 123 innings. Talent arm with even more upside when his changeup adds more value. His scouting report suggests more upside in his fastball with an exciting changeup. Possible sub 3.00 ERA with 200 K's.

Wood is the clear winner for me in the comparison. I like his minor league resume and upside. DeGrom looked great in 2014, but I seem some regression this year.

[CC's Desperados]

Wainwright or Cueto?

Wainwright:

Wainwright finished with his best season (2.38 ERA and 1.031 whip) in the majors with the exception of strikeouts (179). As good as his season looks on paper, his arm just didn't look right late in the year. His first strike rate (60.9 %) had regression, which led to a step back in his K rate (7.1). Adam lost his K ability (4.6) in July even with 4 plus starts. Over a seven start stretch in August through the first week in September, Wainwright allowed 26 runs and 53 base runners in 44.3 innings (5.27 ERA and 1.195 whip). Somehow he dug down in the stretch run to only allowed 2 runs in his last 4 starts covering 34 innings with 26 K's. His AFB (90.2) was a step down from 2013 (91.1). His cutter is his #2 pitch followed by a plus curveball and fading changeup. His GB rate (46.3 %) has declined in each of his last 3 years. He allowed a career low in HR's (5.3 % HR/FB rate). Adam was dominate against righties (.203 with a .298 SLG %). Wainwright was elite on the road (1.72 ERA). He had an ERA under 1.63 in April, June, July, and September. His season ended with a sore elbow (bone spurs), which led to surgery in late October. The offseason reports have been positive and Adam is expected to be ready for spring training. Plenty of mileage on his arm over the last 2 years (519.7 innings), but his sub 3.00 ERA in 4 of his last 5 seasons can't be dismissed along with his 92 wins over 5 years. Workhorse arm with upside in wins, ERA, and whip. His K's should bounce back this year.

Cueto:

Cueto was an impact arm in 2014 and he was drafted as a SP3 or SP4 in most leagues. Over his last 102 starts, Johnny has a 2.48 ERA over 677.3 innings. His K rate (8.9) was a career high by 1.3 K's. He allowed 2 runs or less in 27 of his 34 starts with 6 games with no runs allowed. Johnny had equal success against RH (.194) and LH (.194) batters. As good as he was, Cueto was even more electric at home (13-4 with a 1.71 ERA with 143 K's in 131.7 innings). His ERA was under 3.06 in every month of the season. His AFB (93.1) was a step up from his last 2 years while being in line with his career average. His growth was due to the development of his cutter (.216), which he threw a career high 23.2 % of the time. His changeup (.117) is now his #3 pitch followed by a fading slider (.275) and weak curveball (.353). Exciting arm with a plus resume with the exception of his 2013 due to an injury. The huge jump in inning could be a concern (175 more). This season he'll be drafted as an ace. His high volume of K's was due to plus innings, which probably isn't repeatable. Sub 3.00 ERA with 200+ K's and 15 wins with a full season of health.

Wainwright has been an electric arm, but I'd lean toward Cueto. His only question mark is the repeatable K's.

[CC's Desperados]

[quote="Deadheadz
I really suck at FAAB and know not to throw my money away even in an online ME versus unknown competition let alone seasoned NFBC vets.
[/quote]

One thing that has bothered me about high stakes fantasy baseball over the past couple of years is the amount of teams that have gone broke midsummer. I can’t understand it. Most top players will never run out of money. I don’t know if it is lack of game plan or they panic over a particular player that paints some teams in a corner. On the other side of the fence, I do see too many teams that never spend enough money. Every team has different needs and they will have different times to make some aggressive moves.

First, I want to explain about free agent bidding and give you a game plan for the season. In high stakes non-trading leagues like the NFBC, they use $1000 of free agent dollars to pick up players each week. Every team has the same amount. When you are out of money, you are out of moves. There are 26 weeks in the baseball season. As a fantasy team owner, you need to gauge the free agent market each week and decide what to bid on each free agent. You will see a wide range of prices for the same player in all the high stakes leagues. The most difficult thing is pinpointing a proper price to secure the player you want without over spending too much. Coming up with a bid comes from feel, player news, team needs, experience, or even knowing your competition.

You could be in two leagues and want the same player in both leagues. On one team, you might need to play that player. On the other team, you might just want to add him to your bench. The team in need makes an aggressive bid and the other team makes a token bid. If you have a problem, you need to make moves. You can’t take the money with you, but you want to leave enough to manage the whole season. The money doesn’t do you a lot of good in August if you are out of contention.

If I work backwards from week 26, we can get an idea of how much money we might need to make the last week of the season. Going into week 26, I would like to have more than $10. I probably won’t need to make 10 moves (each moves has $1 minimum), but I might want to bid a couple of dollars to ensure I get the players I want. With a month to go, I think a sharp owner can manage with $40-$60. It leaves you enough money to make a move or two. If you have say $20, you don’t leave yourself a lot of room for error. A team that in contention might be able to block you for short money. With two months to go, you might want to have $100-$150. Of course if your team has been relatively healthy all year, you don’t have to spend your money. By spending your money early, you are being aggressive on the wire and getting players you want. During each season, every team has a time when it can make a big move or two.

During the season every team will have times when they need help. If you have problems early in the season, you will have the best opportunity to fix it. There will be pitchers who come out of nowhere and players getting jobs after getting called up from the minors. A fantasy owner might not give a hot player a second look in April if he likes his current group of players. Many times it takes a couple of months to realize that some players you have invested in aren’t going to turn the corner. When that happens, you have fewer options to replace someone who is struggling. It seems like every week there is a player or two that gets hot and is worth a shot as a short tem fix, but many times these hot players will fizzle out the next week. Sometimes they get hot and keep the job for an extended period of time. I call these players buy and holds. When you see these hot players, you have to take history into account when placing your bids. If a 32 year old part time player suddenly gets more playing time, you need to take into account his history when placing a bid. Is he going to turn into a stud at age 32? It’s possible, but he most likely isn’t worth a huge bid. Each player is different. Every situation is different. One week you have a 2nd basemen go on the DL, you see one quality fill in. You might make a solid bid. Another week the same thing happens except two other teams have similar problems. Your solid bid might not win the player that week. When you have more eyes looking in the same area, you know the price is going up.

Early in the season you might not know much about the other players in your league. I think you should get a feel for who is sharp at the draft table, but you might not have enough information to make an accurate evaluation. The main thing you are looking for is someone who is on the same page with you. If you get a sense that someone is in the market for similar players, you know that they will be onto some players you want on the waiver wire. When the first couple of bidding periods run, you should be able to get a feel for some of the players in your league. Are they holding their money? Are some players extremely aggressive? Is anyone picking up players who won’t have any value for a month? The more you play the better you should be at knowing the styles of your competition. If you have a feel for your league, you might have a better idea of when you need to make a strong move if you need a player. All it takes is one player being extremely aggressive to throw a player’s value out the window. If someone does this, you know they won’t have a lot of ammo as the season goes on. Every team has the chance to make a few big moves. If you make a big investment, you need to make sure you understand why you are doing it. A panic move can be deadly for you fantasy team.

I went back and looked at my main event team in 2008. I made 53 moves for the year, but I over spent by $773 on those pickups. I could have had all my players for $227 or about $5 per player. Some were me being aggressive, others were me panicking, and a few were me miss reading the market value. In my main event, there were a lot of teams that were holding their money for whatever the reason. This would depress the market value. Each week you can see where you overspent on some players. When you see this, you need to adjust your thought process on bids for certain players. If I’ve been placing bids for a couple of buy and hold double starters and I notice I’m bidding unopposed, I might need to lower my bids. If I’m bidding in say the $30 range and I’m having runner ups bids just below my total, I might need to raise my bid on the next player that fits that mold.

As for the players that hold their money and never end up spending it, I would suggest you reevaluate your game plan. Maybe some owners don’t have a lot of time and don’t like to micro manage their teams, but you need to stay on top of the free agent pool early in the year. Your money won’t help you when you are out of contention late in the season. The idea is to service your team’s needs and hopefully you are still in the hunt after the all star break. Baseball is a marathon. You need to keep grinding. Sometimes teams that look like run away winners have late season problems. If you don’t play hard all season, you might miss on a winning opportunity. The first half of the year there are more buying opportunities. You have more competition for players, but you need to spend money if you need players. If your team is underachieving, there isn't much you can do. You try to be patient and hope things starts to turn around. If you have no major problems, it is nice to have the most money the second half of the year. I see way too many times a team having a lot of free agent money in August and have no chance of winning. Everyone has a different idea about how to play and they put up the entry fee.

When you prepare for this upcoming season, I suggest you take a look at how you spent your free agent money last year. If you ran out in August or early September, I would make some adjustments to ensure that you have enough to last all season. As bad as you think you need someone, you have to look at the results of having no money. A dollar player can turn into a solid pick up just as fast as your $400 supposed super star can be a flash in the pan. Everyone’s goal is to win and I think you decrease your chances when you run out of free agent dollars. When you are really hot for someone, take a deep breath. Try to make sure you aren’t running up the price of the player you want in your own mind. Try to be a week early and it will save you tons of money. If you feel the need to spend $400+ plus on the next Cole Hamels or Ryan Braun, do a little more homework in the off season? You might find your pot of gold on you team on draft day. If you find yourself out of contention in midsummer with a boat load of cash, roll up your sleeves and get your hands dirty when you are still in the game.

[CC's Desperados]

I thought last year was loaded with really good pitchers between rounds 14-20. Kluber, Ross, Kazmir, Kennedy, Roark, maybe some others.

Which couple of pitchers do you think could make a mini-Kluber like jump this year whose ADP is currently in the teens??

Feel free to say "none of them" or "I don't want to give away one of my best kept secrets" if needed.

Good chatting with you at the FFFC this past December even if we did bore my wife to tears! Take care, Shawn.

Justin Verlander:

I'm so depressed that have to do this stiff's player profile. He had me so jacked up by his finished in 2013 and his plus spring training in 2014 (no runs, 8 hits, and 17 K's in 20 innings). Justin crushed my season on a couple of teams in the high stakes market. He allowed the most runs (104) in the AL with a huge decline in his K rate (6.9). His lack of success was mainly to RH batters (.321 with .489 SLG %). Verlander only had 58 K's in 352 at bats (15.3 % K rate - 22.7 % in 2013, 23.5 % in 2012, 24.4 % in 2011, and 23.2 % in 2010) against RH batters. His AFB (92.3) was career low and it has declined in each of the last 5 seasons. His curveball was his #2 pitch followed by a slider and changeup. His control was huge problem over first half of the year (46 walks in 129 innings). After the ALL Star break, he appeared to rely on his fastball more, which led to a 3.97 ERA with better command (19 walks in 77 innings - 2.2/9). In his 15 wins, Verlander had a 3.38 ERA with 7.6 K rate. Real tough call on him this year. Is he totally dead? His fastball is still strong enough to have success in the majors and his 10 year resume tells us he can pitch at a high level. A report came out in August that his shoulder was bothering him. His ADP in the early draft season is 199 in the NFBC, which make him a late SP3 or early SP4. If he pitched well in spring training with good reports about his velocity, I think he is in play.

I know this seems out of line, but I like reports on Verlander so far in 2015. His failed season in 2014 could have been tied to his lack of preseason prep due to core surgery on 1/9/2014. His fastball hasn't fallen to the Tim Lincecum range plus he has two other plus pitches. It was reported he added 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason. I'm willing to give him another shot and he is priced fairly. I just

Danny Salazar:

Salazar was a bust in 2014. He was being drafted as an SP2 in 15 leagues. After 8 starts, Danny had a 5.53 ERA with 66 base runners allowed in 40.7 innings, which led to a trip back to AAA. Over 11 starts in the minors, Salazar had a 3.71 ERA with 76 K's in 60.7 innings. His walk rate (4.2) was well above his resume at AAA, but he did show an electric K rate (11.3). Danny was recalled after the ALL Star break where he made 12 starts (3.50 ERA with 73 K's in 69.3 innings). The key to his rebound was better command (2.3 walk rate). His AFB (94.6) was elite, but it was a step down from his 2013 success (96.2). His changeup had less value followed by a slider (.333 with .600 SLG %). that needs to improve. Salazar is more of a FB pitcher (42.2 %) with a declining HR/FB rate (10.0 %). He had the most trouble with RH batters (.289). His final walk rate (2.9) was a slight step back while his K rate (9.8) regressed. His price point should be much more reasonable in 2015 (early ADP 228). Ideally, he would be an upside SP4 in 15 team leagues. His skill set has high upside. He tends to throw a lot of pitches early in games, which makes it tough for him to reach 200 innings. 15 win upside with 200 K's in his near future.
I didn't like him at all last year due to his ADP. His 2014 MLB ERA (4.25) will lead to him being a buying opportunity. His command has been solid in his career and his fastball is elite. The Indians pitching coach did a nice job with Kluber and Carrasco in 2014. This year Danny will make the huge step forward.

[CC's Desperados]

Shawn,
Is there a sp that fell off the tracks last year that could be a bounce back candidate this year?
Example: Justin Verlander, Justin Masterson, or maybe one I didn't list.
Thanks

See Verlander in the previous post.

I think Clay Buchholz has been a gift in the DC draft season. I know he has some injury risk, but this risk has been wiped out by his reserve round ADP.

Buchholz pitched poorly in every month last season (April - 6.66, May - 7.40, June - 4.91, July - 4.58, August - 4.36, and September - 5.04). His AFB (91.6) has declined in his last 4 season. His cutter has developed into his #2 pitch followed by a solid curveball and changeup. His velocity was slightly lower in April and it appeared he was overthrowing his changeup. His walk rate (2.9) was a career best while his K rate (7.0) was in line with his career average. His LOB rate was 62.1 %, which was well below the league average. Clay had his lowest GB rate (46.6 %) of his career. Most of his struggles were to LH batters (.284 with 38 of his 54 walks). In 15 of his 28 starts, Buchhotz allowed 4 runs or more. He has never pitched 200 innings in his career. Over his last 4 years, Clay has been an every other year pitcher with 2 plus seasons on his resume (17-7 with a 2.33 ERA and 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA). Clay had surgery in late September to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. Overall, his stats were worst than expected based on his command and BAA. The underlying knee issue was a factor for most of the season. Tough lining him up as the top pitcher for the Sox, but he is the only pitcher to have a couple of ACE seasons on his resume. Solid bounce back season with upside in wins.

[CC's Desperados]

1) Shortstop - Tulo and Hanley, what are you expecting this year? If you go another route in Rounds 1 and 2 - where are you seeing a good buying opportunity at the SS position?

You know I have a weakness for both players as they both are huge edges at their position if they play a full season. Last year I have one main event with both players on the team. The offense was electric early especially when you add in Brian Dozier at MI. Both players have top 5 upside. Hanley gets his first real shot at hitting in an offensive ball park. I've done 3 DC's this year and I haven't touched either. In late March, it would be tough to ignore their difference maker upside. I'd almost like to do a 3rd main just to tie them together again.

Hanley:

After being electric for the Dodgers in just over a half of season in 2013, Hanley lost his ability to drive the ball in 2014. His average hit (AVH) dropped by almost 15 %. His K rate (16.4 %) remained in a strong area and his walk rate (10.9 %) was his 2nd highest of his career. Ramirez was productive with runners on base (19 % RBI rate) for the 2nd straight year. Hanley battled an oblique, hand, shoulder, calf, and elbow injury over the last 4 months of the year. This led to him only hitting 4 HR's in his last 245 at bats. Ramirez signed a 4 year $88 million deal with Boston in November. His position has yet to be determined. He could see time at SS, 3B, or LF. The Red Sox really need to find a way to keep him healthy as he has only played one healthy season in the past 4 years. Hanley is a career .300 hitter with 30 HR power. He has played his whole career in pitchers ballparks so the move to Boston should be exciting. Ramirez is an elite talent hitting in a very good lineup. I expect him to set career highs across the board. 35 HR upside

Tulo:

Troy continues to be one of the most frustrating players in the game. He is one of the best hitters in the league with electric upside, but he can't stay of the field for a full season. Over his last 3 seasons, Tulo has missed 212 games. Last year he missed the last 2 1/2 months with a thigh injury. With the Rockies dead in the water, they decided to end Tulowitzki's season in mid August with surgery to repair his left labrum in his hip. It was reported in December that Troy was ahead of pace with his recovery. All signs point to him being ready for the start of spring training. His K rate (15.2 %) remains in a plus area for a power hitter while his walk rate (13.3 % - career best) continues to rise. He dominated LH pitching (.397 with an .833 SLG %) with solid success against righties (.321 with a .527 SLG %). In reality, he has one of the ideal skill sets you want to be a foundation of your team - plus average, plus power, and scarce position. With no injury risk, Tulo would be a lock to be a top 5 pick in baseball. His pace over the last 3 years would translate to a .316 batting average with 103 runs, 32 HR's and 94 RBI over 550 at bats. Tulowitzki is fill of risk, but loaded with reward.

[CC's Desperados]

2) Puig and Harper - two "exciting" players going in the mid to late second round range. Which are you higher on and why?

The wise guys in Vegas aren't going to let this stud fly under the radar. Harper is going to be a perennial top 5 pick in the near future. I can't believe he slid the back of the 3rd round in some DC's. I mean what are these players looking for in these players? I guess they want to see the winning stats. If that's case, they will be a year to late. Every knows Harper's upside. It's going to be real tough to beat the teams that draft Trout/Harper and an ace in 2015. On the bright side, Bryce will play well in March to suck on the value out of him.

Puig is a beast. There is no doubt in my mind he will be a top 15 pick in 2016. It just a matter of determining his skill set in 2015. He should hit 3rd for the Dodgers, but he needs to prove he is ready to be a plus run producer. When I was looking at LA, I really has the sense that he is built to bat leadoff this year, which gives him a misplaced skill set. Either way, he has enough upside in power and speed to be a difference maker.

[CC's Desperados]

3) Jones and Cano - two "boring" players. I don't think I have ever had Adam Jones once on my team. The guys that I have picked in place of him........never did as well as Adam Jones. I am an idiot. In your opinion does Jones puts up first round value once again this year? Your take on Cano?

Jones is a real tough call.

Adam Jones:

Jones is coming off 4 straight solid seasons. He appears to be a borderline first round draft pick for the 2nd straight season, but is he really one of the top 15 players in the game? Maybe the bar in major league baseball has been lowered. The top 20 % in batting average in the NFBC in 2014 was .2674. In a way, Adam is probably a .300 hitter when compared to the steroid ERA when a fantasy player needed a batting average over .280 to be in the top 20 %. Jones has only been slightly above league average as a run producer in his career (16 % - league average 14 % in 2014). His walk rate (2.8 %) was a career low and it is one of the worst in the league. His K rate (19.5 %) was just about his career average, which is slightly above the major league average (18.5 %). His speed took a step backwards, which was more a result of team philosophy as Baltimore was last in the majors in steals (44). Jones did show growth against LH pitching (.344 with 9 HR's and 20 RBI in 154 at bats). His success against righties did decline from 2013 (.261 with 20 HR's and 76 RBI in 490 at bats). Last year he only had 8 walks in 514 plate appearances against RH pitching (1.55 % - 1.7 % in 2013). Last year Jones struggled to find his stroke out of the gate (1 HR in 123 at bats - 28 HR's over his last 521 at bats). His HR/FB rate (15.8 %) was his lowest since 2010. Adam is a rock solid major league hitter with a free swinging approach. His growth against LH pitching may lead to him having his best season in his major league career. His batting average has some downside risk, but his resume is long enough where we can trust him to be an asset in this area. I see 40/120 upside this season if Baltimore can get enough runners on base in front of him. My projection came out as .285 with 31 HR's and 95 RBI.

Robinson Cano:

Cano really disappointed in the power department as his AVH (1.444) was career low. His approach at the plate remained intact. His K rate (10.2 %) was his lowest since 2009. His walk rate (9.2 %) has been trending above his career average in each of the last 3 years. Robinson was very good with runners on base (20 % RBI rate). His low RBI total was due to a career low 353 chances. In his previous 7 years with New York, Cano came to the plate with 454 runners on base. His lack of RBI was due to a weaker offense. He hit .327 against RH pitching and .294 against lefties, which was in line with his career resume. His down tick in power was partly due to a low SLG % against LH pitching (.390 - .443 in his care). There's no doubt the change in ballpark was a factor, but Robinson only hit 5 HR's in 316 at bats on the road (1 in every 63.2 at bats - 30.9 in his career). His GB rate (52.6 %) was his highest of his career with a much weaker HR/FB rate (10.7 % - 13.8 % in his career). Cano broke a toe in November in Japan. He is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Solid .300 hitter with declining power. The bar should be lowered to 20/90.

I'm afraid of Cano's upside in power plus I can't trust that Seattle will give him enough RBI chances.