NFBC Message Boards

NFBC Hall of Famer Shawn Childs will join us this Friday, Feb. 20th for a Live Chat on the NFBC Message Boards. Shawn is writing MLB profiles for Scout.com and you'll be able to find his work here:

http://fantasy.scout.com/story/1509640- ... -draft-kit

Feel free to post questions in advance for Shawn and then be here on Friday night after your local fish fry and hear some fish stories from Shawn!! We always get a lot of people on the Message Boards when Shawn holds these Live Chats, so it should be a great time on Friday night. See ya there. Will be fun.

Deadheadz wrote:.


I've been hearing that Dellin Betances may be just a co-closer with Andrew Miller in '15.

His ADP tells us most leagues have at least one manager who's pretty sure the job is his alone but Miller's ADP seems to tell us that most leagues also have at least one manager who isn't so sure about Betances.

I'm guessing he still has value for the other categories because he would still get appearances in the 8th if not closing out every game.

Does anyone have enough of a handle on what to expect with the Yankees bullpen to be sure?

Betances flashed electric upside in 2010 when he went 8-1 at High A with 88 K's in 71 innings. It was his first season with major league command (2.3 walk rate). His success as a starter never materialized due to his inability to throw strikes (4.9 walk rate in his minor league career). New York pulled him for the rotation early in 2013 at AAA, which led to him gaining value as a reliever (1.35 ERA with 83 K's in 60 innings). Last year he found his command, which led to a 2.4 walk rate and batters only hit .149 against him. His AFB (96.6) is elite and his slider made a huge step forward. Dellin changed his mechanics in 2013, which is the big reason for his improvement in his strike throwing ability. New York opened the door for him to be the closer in 2015. He will be drafted as one of the top closers in the game due to his plus K rate and low BAA, but he still has to prove he can handle the 9th inning. He will be the #2 ranked closer for me this year. Possible 50 SV's with 100+ K's.

Miller developed into a solid lefty arm in the Red Sox bullpen over the last 4 years. His skill set made a huge step forward in 2014 especially in his last 23 games for Baltimore (3 runs in 20 innings with 34 K's). Last year was the first season Andrew had success against both RH (.145) and LH (.163) batters. Opponents only had 10 extra base hits in 216 at bats (.227 SLG %). His AFB (93.9) was a step down from his last 2 years (94.9). The development of his slider has been the key reason for his improved success. His GB rate (46.9 %) was in line with is career average. Miller has a plus arm, but his lack of a 3rd pitch gives him no chance at starting in 2015. His huge jump in his walk rate (2.5 - 4.9 in his career) is the key for his continued success. A step to the 9th inning would be a lot ask until he proved he can throw more strikes long term.

Shawn,

If you had to guess who would finish 14th and 15th in a Main Event draft between Yellow and Dead?

ALL-IN JD wrote:Shawn,

If you had to guess who would finish 14th and 15th in a Main Event draft between Yellow and Dead?

Time to move on from this....

You are right, let's keep it clean!

Was Belt FINALLY on his way to a breakout season last year before injury derailed him or do you think if healthy he will finally breakout (especially with the talk of him hitting in three spot)?

ALL-IN JD wrote:You are right, let's keep it clean!

Was Belt FINALLY on his way to a breakout season last year before injury derailed him or do you think if healthy he will finally breakout (especially with the talk of him hitting in three spot)?

Belt appeared ready to make a huge step forward after his 9 HR's and 18 RBI over his first 129 at bats. As good as the power looks, his K rate (27.3 %) was well above his previous success (21.9 % in 2013 - 17.8 % in the minors). Brandon also lost his walk rate (5.8 % - 9.7 % in his career). In mid May, he broke his left thumb after being hit by a pitch. Belt had surgery on 5/11 that forced him to miss 7+ weeks. When he returned, Brandon on hit .175 with 2 HR's and 6 RBI over 57 at bats. He suffered a concussion after being hit in the face on July 19th. This led to two DL stints over the next two months (only 5 games played). He returned to the lineup on September 19th. His stoke started to come around over the last 6 games of the regular seasons (8 for 20 with 1 HR and 3 RBI). In the post season, Belt hit .295 with 1 HR and 8 RBI in 61 at bats. His K rate came in at 23.2 %. His HR/FB rate (18.2 %) was a career high with a career high FB rate (44.0 %). His swing path appeared to change (18.0 % LD rate - 25.6 % in 2012 and 24.3 % in 2013). Tough player to gauge. His power is rising at the expense of his strikeout rate. Brandon has underlying speed, but his bat doesn't look ready to make an impact as a middle of the order hitter. I'd set the bar at .270 with 20 HR's, 80 RBI, and 10 SB's and hope for more upside.

Agreed Shawn. Definite upside but definite risk.

Gray or Cobb?

Stroman or Smyly?

deGrom or A. Wood?

Wainwright or Cueto?

ALL-IN JD wrote:Gray or Cobb?

Stroman or Smyly?

deGrom or A. Wood?

Wainwright or Cueto?

I'll work on this for Friday.

Come on! I have to wait until then?

How amazing will Wil Myers be this year?

ALL-IN JD wrote:Come on! I have to wait until then?

Cobb:

As a non Cobb owner in 2014, it's kind of strange to see him finish with an upside season. I used him a few times in the daily games early in the year, but he failed to deliver an impact game. Alex allowed no runs in his 2nd and 3rd starts of the year over 14 innings with 1 walk and 11 K's before bowing out for 5 weeks with an oblique injury. When he returned in late May, Cobb was unimpressive in 5 of his next 7 starts (26 runs and 58 base runners over 38.7 innings - 6.05 ERA). Something clicked in July as he allowed 2 runs or less over 12 starts to lower his ERA to 2.75 on the year. Over the last 3 months of the season, Alex went 7-3 with a 2.02 ERA and 93 K's in 102 innings. Most of his success was against LH batters (.207 with a .318 SLG %). Cobb continues to induce a high volume of ground balls (56.2 % - 56.5 % in his career). His FB rate (27.4 %) was a career high, but it remains in a HR reducing area. His AFB (91.7) was a career best and it has improved in back to back years. Alex has an exceptional changeup and a solid curveball. With 2 straight seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA, Cobb is emerging as a legit ace. The only thing lacking on his resume is a 200 inning season. Trending upward with his impact season peaking over the horizon. 15+ wins with his first 200 K season.

Gray:

Gray finished with a solid 2014 season, but his results were shorter than his upside 10 starts in 2013. His walk rate (3.0) and K rate (7.5) both regressed with a weak first pitch strike rate (58.3 %). Sonny had success against both RH (.245) and LH (.221) batters. He allowed 30 of his 44 extra base hits to lefties. Gray struggled a bit June (5.40 ERA), but he bounced back with a dominate July (5-0 with a 1.03 ERA and 31 K's in 35 innings). On August 1st, Sonny had a 2.59 ERA after 22 starts. Over his last 11 starts, he had a 4.71 ERA and 1.349 whip. This included 1 run in his last 16 innings with 17 K's. His AFB (93.0) was in line with his 2013 season. His #2 pitch remained his curveball with his slider gaining some value. Gray also throws a changeup. He is high ground ball pitcher (55.9 %) with a declining FB rate (25.6 %). His inning total jumped by 36.7 from 2013, which is a reasonable step. In one full season, Sonny turned into a workhorse ace. His minor league success in command was similar to 2014 so he didn't really show any growth in his skill set. His arm has upside and his volume of innings led to his high K total. His ERA points to a fantasy ace, but his whip does have some risk if his walk rate doesn't improve. Possible 15 wins with 175 K's.

I'll give the edge to Cobb. Both teams have some question marks on offense, which makes the 15 win number seem high. I'd lead toward Cobb's command as the tie breaker.

Roger Dorn wrote:How amazing will Wil Myers be this year?

I was really surprised to see Tampa bail on the upside of Myers. Wil struggled over his first 2 months of the year (.227 with 5 HR's and 25 RBI in 198 at bats). He broke his right wrist at the end of May, which cost him almost 12 weeks of the year. When he returned to the lineup late in August, his bat had no life (.213 with 1 HR and 10 RBI in 127 at bats). His K rate (24.9 %) was only a small step back from 2013 (24.4 %) while his walk rate (9.4 %) was slightly above the league average. Myers hit .302 in his minor league career with 84 HR's, 340 RBI, and 40 SB's in 1769 at bats. His HR/FB rate (7.0 %) was more than 50 % lower than his rookie year (15.5 %) with a high GB rate (48.1 %). In 2013, he had equal success against RH (.292) and LH (.293) pitching. Tremendous power bat with some batting average risk until he gets his strikeouts under control. Possible .270 with 25 HR's and 80 RBI with some underlying speed.

Not quite ready to be amazing.

ALL-IN JD wrote:Shawn,

If you had to guess who would finish 14th and 15th in a Main Event draft between Yellow and Dead?

You won't see this happen anytime soon JD. I really suck at FAAB and know not to throw my money away even in an online ME versus unknown competition let alone seasoned NFBC vets.

Besides, aren't you guys still going with the theory that YL and I are the same person?


Sorry Shawn, I shouldn't have interrupted your one-on-one conversation with JD. I will refrain from posting in your thread again without asking you a legit question. Thanks for the Betances info.


.

Honestly Dead, not a chance. Since that waste of space has jumped on the boards I view you as a breath of fresh air!!

I thought last year was loaded with really good pitchers between rounds 14-20. Kluber, Ross, Kazmir, Kennedy, Roark, maybe some others.

Which couple of pitchers do you think could make a mini-Kluber like jump this year whose adp is currently in the teens??

Feel free to say "none of them" or "I don't want to give away one of my best kept secrets" if needed.

Good chatting with you at the fffc this past December even if we did bore my wife to tears! Take care, Shawn.

Shawn,

Is their a sp that fell off the tracks last year that could be a bounce back canidate this year?
Example:Justin Verlander,Justin Masterson, or maybe one I didn't list.
Thanks

Do you think you will have a better showing in the AL Auction this year?

Gekko wrote:Do you think you will have a better showing in the AL Auction this year?

Survey says "Yes"....

Gekko wrote:Do you think you will have a better showing in the AL Auction this year?

Do you think we will have a better showing in LABR AL Action this year? LABR NL?

Greg Ambrosius wrote:

Gekko wrote:Do you think you will have a better showing in the AL Auction this year?

Do you think we will have a better showing in LABR AL Action this year? LABR NL?

As long our dreams are answered by the Owls across the way...

Thanks for taking the time to answer these questions. I always find your method of analyzing a player / team / situation unique and could read your stuff all day (although JD and Glenn might have topped you yesterday). Here are a couple for you that I would like your opinion on:

1) Shortstop - Tulo and Hanley, what are you expecting this year? If you go another route in Rounds 1 and 2 - where are you seeing a good buying opportunity at the ss position?

2) Puig and Harper - two "exciting" players going in the mid to late second round range. Which are you higher on and why?

3) Jones and Cano - two "boring" players. I don't think I have ever had Adam Jones once on my team. The guys that I have picked in place of him........never did as well as Adam Jones. I am an idiot. In your opinion does Jones puts up first round value once again this year? Your take on Cano?

4) Fielder or Votto

5) Drafting Style / theory - in this new era of baseball where the hitting numbers are down so significantly, does that change your approach to valuing the stud hitters even more or do you believe that you can gain same or bigger edge by grabbing SP early. It seems like the NFBC community values pitching more than most. Curious as to your opinion on all that.

Thanks!

JohnP wrote:Thanks for taking the time to answer these questions. I always find your method of analyzing a player / team / situation unique and could read your stuff all day (although JD and Glenn might have topped you yesterday). Here are a couple for you that I would like your opinion on:

1) Shortstop - Tulo and Hanley, what are you expecting this year? If you go another route in Rounds 1 and 2 - where are you seeing a good buying opportunity at the ss position?

2) Puig and Harper - two "exciting" players going in the mid to late second round range. Which are you higher on and why?

3) Jones and Cano - two "boring" players. I don't think I have ever had Adam Jones once on my team. The guys that I have picked in place of him........never did as well as Adam Jones. I am an idiot. In your opinion does Jones puts up first round value once again this year? Your take on Cano?

4) Fielder or Votto

5) Drafting Style / theory - in this new era of baseball where the hitting numbers are down so significantly, does that change your approach to valuing the stud hitters even more or do you believe that you can gain same or bigger edge by grabbing SP early. It seems like the NFBC community values pitching more than most. Curious as to your opinion on all that.

Thanks!

Shawn, can you post your player rankings?

This year's Brantley? Kluber?

Mr Childs,

Excluding the k/9 rate and bapip. What other two pitching statistics do you deem most important to your projections (or 2015 predictions) and why ? Can you give some examples of pitchers in 2014 that you nailed by relying on those two metrics ?

Thanks.