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The Braves are going to have an historically bad offense this year which makes Freddie Freeman's ADP surprising. I think it will be pure comedy watching some of the "talent" they run out there every day, especially after they fall out of contention. Their pitching is strong enough to keep them in games.

2B Peraza should be up by June and may be good for 30 steals.

This is not the team I grew up watching for sure. Might be as bad as the late 80's teams.

Will be curious how much of their pitching talent they keep before finishing the fire sale.

Yellow Ledbetters wrote:The Braves are going to have an historically bad offense this year which makes Freddie Freeman's ADP surprising. I think it will be pure comedy watching some of the "talent" they run out there every day, especially after they fall out of contention. Their pitching is strong enough to keep them in games.

2B Peraza should be up by June and may be good for 30 steals.

This is not the team I grew up watching for sure. Might be as bad as the late 80's teams.

Will be curious how much of their pitching talent they keep before finishing the fire sale.

The Braves offense was pretty bad last year. And that was with Upton, Heyward, and Gattis in the lineup.
In my mind, they have the worst 'lineups' Manager in baseball. Force-feeding BJ Upton near the top of a lineup for a lengthy time was suicide. I also believe he liked the Heyward/Upton/Freeman/Upton beginning to his lineup strictly for the left/right/left/right start and speed and power in the 'right places'.
Forgetting that it matters WHO those left/right/left/right players offered and WHO that speed and power is.

They are certainly a team in transition with no aspirations of even a .500 record during the next couple of years.
As for Freeman. the same thing was said about Giancarlo Stanton last year.
That he wouldn't see very many pitches.
That he was the only 'real' hitter in the lineup.
The cream came to the top in Stanton's case.
And hitters like Yelich, Ozuna, and even Casey McGehee flourished with him.
Will the same thing happen with Freeman and the Braves?
Probably not.
But, I do believe that drafters still like Freeman for his skills, not the skills of the batters around him.

It certainly worked out well for Stanton last year. I'm just not sure where Freeman's team dependent counting stats (Runs/RBI) will come from. I think he's extremely talented and has the plate discipline to take a walk if pitchers want to pitch around him. However i would be surprised if he surpasses 80 runs/RBI.

I think .285 20/75/75 is a reasonable projection. But we will see....I may regret not having any shares of him when the year ends.

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Great analysis Dan.

Another consideration for drafting Freeman early is that you never know if he'll be dealt to a contender should the right package come back to Atlanta in return. Freeman's skills would translate well to many ballparks that are more hitter friendly. It's unlikely they'd deal such a fan-favorite but like Chris Rock says...

I'm not sure using a 3rd round pick to hope someone gets traded would be a practical strategy but good luck with it.

Peraza is the only Brave on offense i'm targeting. Plenty of quality arms though.

Yellow Ledbetters wrote:I'm not sure using a 3rd round pick to hope someone gets traded would be a practical strategy but good luck with it.

I didn't mean to give the impression anyone would draft a player hoping he'd be traded, unless it's someone like Papelbon who is being actively shopped around the league. I'm one of those who won't own Freeman because I believe he's staying put and I buy the notion that he'll have fewer RBI opportunities because of the quality of the hitters ahead of him.

But I agree that skill can't be ignored and if you believe in the guy you should get him where you have the opportunity and if he gets traded to a better hitter's park that's a huge bonus.


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Deadheadz wrote:

Yellow Ledbetters wrote:I'm not sure using a 3rd round pick to hope someone gets traded would be a practical strategy but good luck with it.

I didn't mean to give the impression anyone would draft a player hoping he'd be traded, unless it's someone like Papelbon who is being actively shopped around the league. I'm one of those who won't own Freeman because I believe he's staying put and I buy the notion that he'll have fewer RBI opportunities because of the quality of the hitters ahead of him.

But I agree that skill can't be ignored and if you believe in the guy you should get him where you have the opportunity and if he gets traded to a better hitter's park that's a huge bonus.


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True that homie

When possibly trading for Jackie Bradley Jr. will upgrade your team offensively, well, 2017 isn't that far off...

I hope they give some of their own minor leaguers a shot first. What's sad is the Braves used to perennially have one of the top farm systems. Not anymore.

As a Braves fan I love the offseason. If you think about it they are following the Theo model in Chicago. Buy spare parts and tell your less educated fans you are trying. Hope one of those spare parts gets valuable at the deadline and you turn it in to a prospect.

Second part is hope you can pull an Alfonso Soriano with BJ Upton at some point. Even if you get someone to eat a portion of 2017 it helps in ramping up for the new park. Rumor has it a few people even kicked the tires on Chris Johnson too. A girl can dream... If and it is a big IF BJ shows any signs of hope you would have to think it is on this terrible team in a no pressure environment.

Lastly it will be interesting to see if he has the balls to move Kimbrel at the deadline where his value could be at an extreme high. He also has a tough decision on Minor. If he rebounds do you try and resign him early, resign him in free agency, or flip him.

Biggest things to look for this year is can Betancourt and Simmons hit enough to occupy one third of an NL lineup with the pitcher obviously being the last third.

Still scratching my head on Nick Markakis though. I can only assume they seem him as a prime flappable target at some point or the first part of the 2017 plan. I would not have signed him in a million years.

Chest Rockwell wrote:As a Braves fan I love the offseason. If you think about it they are following the Theo model in Chicago. Buy spare parts and tell your less educated fans you are trying. Hope one of those spare parts gets valuable at the deadline and you turn it in to a prospect.

Second part is hope you can pull an Alfonso Soriano with BJ Upton at some point. Even if you get someone to eat a portion of 2017 it helps in ramping up for the new park. Rumor has it a few people even kicked the tires on Chris Johnson too. A girl can dream... If and it is a big IF BJ shows any signs of hope you would have to think it is on this terrible team in a no pressure environment.

Lastly it will be interesting to see if he has the balls to move Kimbrel at the deadline where his value could be at an extreme high. He also has a tough decision on Minor. If he rebounds do you try and resign him early, resign him in free agency, or flip him.

Biggest things to look for this year is can Betancourt and Simmons hit enough to occupy one third of an NL lineup with the pitcher obviously being the last third.

Still scratching my head on Nick Markakis though. I can only assume they seem him as a prime flappable target at some point or the first part of the 2017 plan. I would not have signed him in a million years.

you're making all of us braves fan look bad with that rose colored analysis chest!
the plan i get, the execution, not so sure. hopefully for us, it works out.
that offense may have a lot of 4-5 pitch innings in them by the opposition.

Chest Rockwell wrote:As a Braves fan I love the offseason. If you think about it they are following the Theo model in Chicago. Buy spare parts and tell your less educated fans you are trying. Hope one of those spare parts gets valuable at the deadline and you turn it in to a prospect.

Main difference is Theo's primary plan is to develop hitters and buy pitchers when they're ready to compete while Atlanta is trying have a semblance of an offense by 2017 and hope their young pitching continues to mature and stay healthy.

I think the Nationals have the makings of a dynasty over the next decade if they can retain most of their talent. Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres should be playoff teams for the better part of next decade. Cubs are a year away obviously