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Tom and I are starting to work on our 2007 rankings for Fantasy Sports Magazine and several players are going to be tough to rank. I'd be interested in your feedback and projected rankings for the following guys:



Derrek Lee

Mark Teixeira

Barry Bonds



Remember that Lee hit .318 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, five stolen bases and 11 runs in 12 games before his April injury and that he hit .295-4-13 with two stolen bases in September before shutting down. The wrist injury is a concern, but this guy is still a five-category fantasy star. Will he go in the second round this year as a bargain? Hmmm, could.



Teixeira may have been a disappointment as the fourth overall pick in 2006, but when all was said and done he still hit 33 homers with 110 RBIs. After the All-Star break, he hit .291 with 24 homers and 61 RBIs, which was stellar. Is he another potential second round bargain?



A lot will depend on where Bonds lands in 2007 as he could return to San Francisco or be a DH in Seattle. Either way, it's tough to see him ever playing more than 130 games a year again. He did finish strong, however, hitting .319 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs from Aug. 1 on. He's obviously going to fall in the draft, but could he be a middle round bargain?



I have questions about Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Mark Prior as well. Eric Gagne will also try to come back this year, but can he be a closer ever again? There are lots of question marks heading into 2007 and so much time to discuss them. Throw your opinions here and we'll have some fun.

I think Lee still rates 1st round, but will likely last till the 2nd. There's enough uncertainty that others will get taken ahead of him. I would love to have him in the 2nd. I took Tex with the 4th pick last year, but now consider him a very solid 2nd rounder. He was fabulous in the 2nd half, but now seems to be a 2nd half player. That makes 3 years in a row he was mediocre in the first half and great in the 2nd half. This year it was just more so. Bonds must fall. To where I do not know. He no longer is a real everyday player. Even wothout injury won't play more than 140 games. And his skills are finally in decline. Age has a nasty way of hitting everyone no matter how well you keep in shape. having said that, he still could put up decent #'s and is still a factor. For me though, not in the 1st 10 rounds.

Though some will take him in the back third of the first round, I believe Lee will slip most normally to mid-second. I agree the injury question will chase him as well as more than a few new faces showing up in the 11 to 15 spot. Also, three other firstbasemen (Pujols, Howard and Berkman) will probably be picked ahead of him. It is feasible that the first round could become the domain of the power hitting firstbasemen if Lee, Teixeira, and Morneau (stretch) get some consideration in the first fifteen.



Teixeira has the better chance as staying in the first round late, but will probably also slip to early in the second. Given the guy plays in Texas, is fairly consistent, and will only be 27 when the 2007 season ends (i.e. he may grow out of the 1H slumpitis), I would certainly have him on my wish list just a few places past the top 10.



Bonds will go about the time most are getting their third or fourth OFers, say 15th to 20th round. Big gamble either for someone very comfortable already with their power or someone desperate for power.

Greg, I thought you had them about right when you did the second round on the other thread. Lee toward the beginning and Teixera following him.



Bonds is so hard because it's based on context. Will he have a contract in place on draft day or pull a Clemens? For what team/position? Will he be healthy? Will he have a good spring (assuming he has a contract)? I guess that doesn't help if it's October and you're writing a magazine for January Taking all the ifs into consideration, I'll just say 9th round.

Why don't 5X5 count OBP instead of AVG....I have never understood why a player gets punished for walking a lot...especially since walking is a positive, getting on base while adding to the pitchers dreaded pitch count (***** pitchers afraid of 3 digit numbers )....seems OBP is more telling and accurate of actual performance than batting average.



Lee - start of 2nd round



Tex - start of 2nd round



Bonds - 15th round

Bonds made me think of that yet again....



we had the misfortune of having him last season....



getting multiple walks every game I watched him play, having an important offensive impact on the game while doing nothing for my fantasy team

Bonds made me think of that yet again....



we had the misfortune of having him last season....



getting multiple walks every game I watched him play, having an important offensive impact on the game while doing nothing for my fantasy team

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

Why don't 5X5 count OBP instead of AVG....I have never understood why a player gets punished for walking a lot...especially since walking is a positive, getting on base while adding to the pitchers dreaded pitch count (***** pitchers afraid of 3 digit numbers )....seems OBP is more telling and accurate of actual performance than batting average.



Lee - start of 2nd round



Tex - start of 2nd round



Bonds - 15th round I don't disagree. We had a thread like that in 2004 and it was overwhelming support to keep Batting Average. You are correct, walks don't have any impact in the NFBC at this point, unless of course that player then steals a base and/or scores.



Okay, I'm into the third round. Does a reliever go here (Brad Lidge was the top one last year at 47.44)? How many starting pitchers will make it into this round? The third round is interesting, that's for sure.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

Why don't 5X5 count OBP instead of AVG....I have never understood why a player gets punished for walking a lot...especially since walking is a positive, getting on base while adding to the pitchers dreaded pitch count (***** pitchers afraid of 3 digit numbers )....seems OBP is more telling and accurate of actual performance than batting average.



Lee - start of 2nd round



Tex - start of 2nd round



Bonds - 15th round I don't disagree. We had a thread like that in 2004 and it was overwhelming support to keep Batting Average. You are correct, walks don't have any impact in the NFBC at this point, unless of course that player then steals a base and/or scores.



Okay, I'm into the third round. Does a reliever go here (Brad Lidge was the top one last year at 47.44)? How many starting pitchers will make it into this round? The third round is interesting, that's for sure. [/QUOTE]fyi...I had stats do research in early '90's.



Walks turned into runs, sb, rbi around 44% of the time. Some of leadoff hitters that walked alot were up in the 55-65% range.

Okay, I admit I'm stumped here in the third round. Remember, this is the round where Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay went last year, so I'm trying to be thorough, but it's not easy. Who is that diamond in the rough this year? Why can't I find him in October?



Four starting pitchers also went in the first three rounds on average last year and I'm not sure I can find one to follow after Johan Santana. Is Jake Peavy worthy with that 4+ ERA? Probably. Do we gamble on Oswalt, Zambrano, Bonderman or Carpenter this high? And speaking of pitchers, should any closer go in the third round, outside of maybe Francisco Rodriguez?



Here's a partial list of my third round choices in no particular order and I need help filling it out. Anyone want to jump in?



Greg's Third Round Prospects, Not In Order:

Hanley Ramirez

Bobby Abreu

Manny Ramirez

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Lee

Paul Konerko

Francisco Rodriguez

Jake Peavy

Joe Mauer

Jermaine Dye

Rafael Furcal

Johnny Damon



Scott Podsednik/Felipe Lopez/Brian Roberts???

Zambrano/Oswalt/Bonderman/Carpenter????

Victor Martinez???



Wow, I need to spend more time on this. What do you think?

I think that you will see lots of people jump in with Carpenter, Oswalt, or Halladay. Remember, they all finished way above a 45 pick based on total performance last year and seem to be healthy.



I have to think Andruw Jones may show up in the 3rd, along with Konerko.



Personally I see Victor Martinez sliding a bit. Sexson will also fall to 4th or 5th. If Liriano looks healthy, you may see someone go for him here, but most likely he will fall due to injury risk issues

I agree with Spy, but would add that Delgado may see some love about this time! What about McCann? With the awesome, consistent year he had I'm sure he's pretty high on a lot of sheets. An argument could certainly be made to pick him ahead of Mauer.

So because players sometimes go on to score runs walks should not count ?



I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sense.



So if a player gets a walk and helps his team his fantasy value will only be helped if his mates drive him in ?



OBP is a more accurate measure than BA. Why are we using the wrong measurement and hurting team players who walk



Instead of punishing players like Bonds & Frank Thomas for being team players how about exposing players like Scott Posednik who refuse to take a walk and subsequently hurt their team



I simply don't understand intentionally using the less accurate form of measurement, and your % of runs scored & whatever else is not a valid reason for using the wrong system.

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:





Instead of punishing players like Bonds & Frank Thomas for being team players how about exposing players like Scott Posednik who refuse to take a walk and subsequently hurt their team



Bonds? Thomas? Team players? Wow! I can't think of two players that more aptly fulfill the complete opposite of that statement.

Bonds and Thomas have become a pitchers delight to pitch around especially with two outs. With RBI chances and two outs neither will sacrifice their batting average to go a little out of the strike zone. Instead, they choose to clog the bases and leave the Pedro Feliz's and Bobby Kielty's of the world to deliver the crucial hit.

So yes, they do have a better OBP, but give me the Pujols and Guerrero's of the world who will truly try to help their teams by driving in crucial runs on less than ideal pitches.

However, I do think that Adam Dunn would support your campaign for OBP.

I'm sorry but taking a walk is a team thing to do....I'm not a Bonds fan by any stretch but it is what it is.....as opposed to say Jeff Francouer who is not a very good baseball player, he's incredibly selfish....swings at horrible pitches when a walk would help his team.... but his poor performance does not get exposed by NFBC rules



Using the illogic presented for not counting walks......Why not discount singles



Guys who get singles can get driven in and steal bases too. Why should the single count ? In fact using his own reasonings, singles should not count



It's just such an obvious flaw in our game. Seems stupid for it to go uncorrected when there is not one valid reason for keeping the flaw in place.

If you can



What is a VALID reason for using BA as opposed to OBP ?

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

So because players sometimes go on to score runs walks should not count ?



I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sense.



So if a player gets a walk and helps his team his fantasy value will only be helped if his mates drive him in ?



OBP is a more accurate measure than BA. Why are we using the wrong measurement and hurting team players who walk



Instead of punishing players like Bonds & Frank Thomas for being team players how about exposing players like Scott Posednik who refuse to take a walk and subsequently hurt their team



I simply don't understand intentionally using the less accurate form of measurement, and your % of runs scored & whatever else is not a valid reason for using the wrong system. There are a number of reasons to keep this 'flaw.'



You say OBP is a more accurate measure. More accurate of what? A players ability? Independent of team context? Fine, but what about wins and saves? Why not get rid of them? And stolen bases as long as you are trying to focus on things that weigh more heavily as important player qualities. Then we can find a way to have your own lineup affect itself, i.e. your two leadoff guys get on in their first two at bats and your third guy hits a homer, you get 3 runs regardless of if it was a solo homer in real life. And, hey, I'm not against any of these changes, really, but how radical do you want to make it.



The NFBC needs to make money. If you're going to charge $1250 for a contest--for a contest that measures the same skills that people have previously paid a mere $25 to compete with on ESPN.com--then you have to actually offer something they've played before. No one is going to pay $1250 for a game they've never played before. I've always said that the NFBC should follow the lead of the big boys if they want to maximize profits.



Fantasy ball is a game. It isn't real ball. You aren't picking players based on independent skills like real GM's and real GM's (the good ones, anyway) don't even do that: they pick players based on the context of how that player will fit into their own team and we can't do that right now. Because wins are more dependent doesn't make them impossible to predict or worthless. You simply need a more complex model to predict them. Some of us who've spent years creating models don't want to change them just to play your game.



I'll add that there is no evidence to suggest that players are less patient because they are not team players. That's ridiculous. Patience is a skill just like hitting homeruns, hitting for average or anything else.



Also, fyi, Podsednik is famous for getting everything in the strike zone precisely because pitchers know that he never swings at bad pitches and can't hit for average. Note that he saw 4.07 pitches per plate apperance this past year and is a perennial leader in that category. And, anyway, his OBP isn't bad for someone with a low average who never gets an intentional walk. So maybe not the best example there.



[ October 21, 2006, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:





Instead of punishing players like Bonds & Frank Thomas for being team players how about exposing players like Scott Posednik who refuse to take a walk and subsequently hurt their team



Bonds? Thomas? Team players? Wow! I can't think of two players that more aptly fulfill the complete opposite of that statement.

Bonds and Thomas have become a pitchers delight to pitch around especially with two outs. With RBI chances and two outs neither will sacrifice their batting average to go a little out of the strike zone. Instead, they choose to clog the bases and leave the Pedro Feliz's and Bobby Kielty's of the world to deliver the crucial hit.

So yes, they do have a better OBP, but give me the Pujols and Guerrero's of the world who will truly try to help their teams by driving in crucial runs on less than ideal pitches.

However, I do think that Adam Dunn would support your campaign for OBP. [/QUOTE]Though you beat me fair and square last year, have given me free drinks, and are generally a great guy--and though we can agree to disagree with Cherokee--I don't buy your ideology on real ball here. As I have vowed to rid the world of the 'baseclogging' myth (and any other theory propagated by the likes of Dusty Baker, Tim McCarver, and Joe Morgan), please read this very short study on it:



http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... /#comments



[ October 21, 2006, 03:53 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

I am not sure how this thread became about this topic but that is ok. Here is my personal rational for liking OBP.



We measure pitchers performance as WHIP (WALKS+HITS)/Innings Pitched. Shouldn't we reward hitters the exact same way? It obviously means you are a) very feared or b) very disciplined when you get a much higher OBP than BA, so you should be rewarded.



As for the concept mention above, I think the point was that 'High OBPers might be slow therefore we shouldn't reward that'. My counter would be that Players like Crisp HAVE A WHOLE CATEGORY REWARDING THEM called STEALS.



As for the argument that changing to OBP would be too different than ESPN for players, I say hogwash. It EXTREMELY well known to baseball fans.



I do agree that moving beyond the standard 10 categories should be done extremely carefully, but OBP is an easy one...



Just my 2 cents.



Spy

Albert Pujols ? He was used as an argument against using OBP instead of BA



Really ?



Albert Pujols walked 92 times last season



Pujols batting average was .331



his OBP was .431



Pujols is a better argument for my case of the best hitters getting screwed by the NFBC not including their walks



Here some more evidence that walks are in fact an important part of the game and that the best hitters get a lot of walks and post high OBPs



Babe Ruth 2,060 walks



Ted Williams 2,019 walks



Joe Morgan 1,865 walks



Carl Yaz 1,845 walks



Mickey Mantle 1,734 walks



Lou Gehrig 1,508 walks



Mike Schmidt 1,507 walks



Willie Mays 1,464 walks



Wade Boggs 1,412 walks



Hank Aaron 1,402 walks



The truly greats get a lot of walks and it is a shame, and it is wrong to use batting average in this league over OBP

And not one valid reason listed why the lesser measurement of BA is used over the more accurate OBP

Originally posted by bjoak:

[/qb]Though you beat me fair and square last year, have given me free drinks, and are generally a great guy--and though we can agree to disagree with Cherokee--I don't buy your ideology on real ball here. As I have vowed to rid the world of the 'baseclogging' myth (and any other theory propagated by the likes of Dusty Baker, Tim McCarver, and Joe Morgan), please read this very short study on it:



thrhttp://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site ... /#comments [/QB][/quote]


Brian, One thing your site didn't mention are loafers. Bonds and Thomas are both loafers, perfectly content to play station-to-station once they are on the basepaths, meaning in a lot of circumstances that it will take three runner advancing situations to score the slugs.

Thomas stats really bear this out, he scored more(39) times on his own HR's than he did on all other AB's (including walks!) combined(38). Thomas also has a 114-77 rbi to run ratio, runners on first and third with two out I want him swinging at anything close. In that situation a walk wouldn't make him a base clogger, just another LOB that heads back to the dugout after Kielty(sorry to pick on you Bobby, but your hair is kind of freaky) pops out behind him.

Cherokee, I think its a Man Law. Its perfectly fine to do a fist pump when one of your players gets a single, but for a walk....uh, no.

Maybe you can talk Greg in to trying a Satelite League with OBP. If that works out you can bang the drum louder next year.

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

If you can



What is a VALID reason for using BA as opposed to OBP ? We use BA because it is a standard Rotisserie category, common to every baseball fan around. I honestly like OBP over BA as well because walks are not accurately counted in the original Rotisserie scoring rules and really aren't even counted in 5x5 leagues, although you can say that runs scored does help players who walk a lot. I compete in an OBP league and like it a lot, although I must say I have struggled with that category every year it seems.



OBP would never be an added category as I don't ever see the NFBC going beyond a 5x5 competition. The argument would be whether we should replace BA with OBP. As I said earlier, I brought this subject up in 2004 and most folks didn't like the idea. I'm just telling you Cherokee it's a valid point and a valid argument, but the reasoning now is that BA is a more common category for fantasy players and that's why it was one of our original categories and remains one of our 5x5 categories.

Originally posted by Cherokee Nation:

And not one valid reason listed why the lesser measurement of BA is used over the more accurate OBP How are my reasons not valid? I agree that OBP is a better measure of a player than BA, but that is not the only reason to make a change. If it was, we could just cancel all 5 categories and use a more inclusive and accurate stat like EqA. How well would that go over? This is not a black and white issue.



Greg underscores this by mentioning in his message that he struggles with OBP in his league. It is not easy to become comfortable with projecting or playing for a new stat. I would tend to believe your biggest reason for wanting the change is that you've played in leagues that have used it before and that you are maybe more comfortable with it.



[ October 22, 2006, 01:55 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

I think the idea of using a satellite makes a lot of sense. Personally, I vote for an auction satellite with it. The Marketplace should decide. If there is allot of interest, that will help Greg make the right decision.



Spy