Weekly Question: Where Does Soriano Go On Draft Day?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:59 am

Now that the Chicago Cubs have corralled Alfonso Soriano with an eight-year, $136 million contract -- placing him in comfy Wrigley Field for 81 games a year -- where do you think he goes on NFBC Draft Day? Is a worthy No. 1, 2 or 3 overall pick? Can he top last year's 40-40 season now that he's with the Cubs and in the leadoff spot fulltime? What is he worth in an NL-only Rotisserie auction league or an NFBC Mixed Auction League?

Soriano became the fourth player in MLB history to reach 40-40 in a season when he hit .277 last year with 46 homers, 95 RBIs, 41 stolen bases and 119 runs. On the road last year, Soriano hit .293 with 22 homers, 51 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. At RFK Stadium, Soriano hit just .260 with 24 homers, 44 RBIs and 18 stolen bases. The 30-year-old is now going to an ideal park in Wrigley Field, so how high can his value be?

I'd love to see the feedback on this one.

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:05 am

I just had a conversation with a friend of mine an hour ago about this very topic. Considering he qualifies at OF only this year, he is really only a 3 category guy, maybe 4 if he can hit for average but he swings too freely. Pujols is a bonafide 4 category guy with 15 SB potential, same for ARod in a different setting. I put him 2nd if ARod stays in NY and 3rd if ARod goes anywhere else

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:19 am

Soriano's value goes up a notch, since he's staying in the NL and moving to a better park. I think Pujols is the clear #1 at the draft, but Soriano heads a list that includes A-Rod, Reyes & Howard for the #2 pick, in my opinion.

With Beltran now looking like a 15-SB guy and Abreu now looking like a 15-HR guy, Soriano is the only bankable 30-30 player in the draft. The fact that he has 40-40 upside makes him all the more valuable.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:20 am

I picked Arod 2nd in our mock draft on these boards. I would now take Soriano 2nd flip floping with Arod. While I do think getting out of RFK will help, I'm not sure his #'s will increase. In fact I still think they could go down. Guys in a free agent year somehow seem to over achieve. However, even if he only is 30-30 and his other stats are similar he would be pretty good.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:21 am

Great question. I think Soriano is done hitting for a good average but he can probably hit adequately and anyone who can hit over 40 homers in Washington ought to be able to hit them anywhere. Add on to that, running Lou is his manager, and you have an almost sure thing for 40-50 stolen bases.

I wonder if they will keep him in the leadoff spot, especially if Juan Pierre is pulling together a higher OBP, but Soriano should at least have similar numbers to last year and has to be a top fantasy option any way you cut it.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:27 am

In the main event, he certainly goes in the first half of round one - how high depends on the drafters in front of you - I think on average 4th as a November guess.

In an NL Auction league, I think he goes for $48

In a Mixed Auction league, I think he goes in the $40s somewhere

And bjoak - Pierre is all but gone from the Cubs -the report I saw said they were planning on playing Soriano in CF

RawTalent · Post by **RawTalent** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:30 am

I got Soriano last year in the $650 NL-only Auction out of Chicago for $26 as he helped me win the title.

After moving on to the Cubs, I think he is the #1 fantasy player in the game regardless of being regulated to just the outfield now.

Not only will he come close to repeating his HR/SB numbers from last year his .AVG will be closer to .300 and with Lee and Ramirez hitting behind him he is going to score a **** load of runs (140!?! or so).

I think he will go for $50 for the drafts out of Chicago and around $45 everywhere else. For me, I have a hard time paying over $40 for anyone player especially in a non-inflation league.

I'll go up to $40 though I can promise you that...

RT

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:31 am

Cubs GM Jim Hendry is also on record as saying that Soriano will bat leadoff. This hurts RBI, but helps SB.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=a ... &type=lgns

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:34 am

They could still get Pierre back. It was suggested in the Chi. Tribune today either Soriano plays center or they get Pierre back, Soriano stays in left and Murton to the bench. There apparently hasn't been overwhelming interest in Pierre thus far and he could be had for moderate $'s. The Cubs now seem to have bottomless pockets. There's talk here either the Cubs or the whole Tribune company is up for sale and they're putting lipstick on the pig.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:00 am

I may be the minority here but him moving to Chicago does nothing to change his value to me.

I like everyone like him in a more hitter friendly environment and with a manager who likes to run.

I think his steals will come down and have a hard time getting to 30. One you are betting on no nagging leg injuries for a guy over 30, he was running for a contract last year, and finally you do not have a guy making that much money running in unneccesary times. See Beltran 03 and 04 vs 05 and 06.

As far as power this may not be really popular amongst the Saber heads, but the type of homerun Soriano hits not many cheap ones means he will have less negative effect to RFK and positive effect to Wrigley.

My power theory is flimsy at best but I think you need to think long and hard before you project him for 40 steals in 07.

35 bombs, 25 steals, 272 batting avg, 85 rbi, 115 runs scored.

[ November 20, 2006, 05:02 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:07 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

35 bombs, 25 steals, 272 batting avg, 85 rbi, 115 runs scored.Chest - I'll definitely take the "over" on SB, if you're projecting only 25. It's certainly possible he only gets that many, but projecting that number seems like your predicting an injury. Soriano likes to run, as does Piniella. I'd project 35 SB.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:15 am

Good point on the Cubs being afraid to run a solid-gold property, Chest. Beltran is a good comparable too because he went over to a team where the manager likes to run.

It does have me thinking, but I still lean toward the idea that if they intend to bat him leadoff they are doing it because of his speed and therefore intend to run him. They can't be doing it beacause of his ability to take a pitch!

You could be right about power. Do you know what his GB/FB splits are? Guys who hit a lot of groundballs, but a lot of homeruns tend to be the guys who don't get cheated because when they hit it in the air they can really hammer it. I think most sabermetricians buy into that.

Vander does have a good point about last year being his contract year. I don't think I'll ever be able to ignore those awful road splits back when he played for Texas.

[ November 20, 2006, 05:27 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:35 am

It's tempting to compare Soriano to Beltran given Beltran's dropoff in SB, but I think there are several key differences between the two players:

1) Beltran bats third in a lineup with a ton of firepower behind him. With Delgado and Wright hitting behind him, Beltran has less motivation to run. Soriano, on the other hand, will bat leadoff on a team with less ability to score him from first base. He'll have a lot more incentive to run.

2) Jose Reyes already fills the leadoff SB role for the Mets, taking pressure off Beltran to do the same. Soriano is expected to fill the Reyes role for the Cubs.

3) Beltran had a nagging quad injury in 05 and may have had the same in 06. Soriano hasn't experienced those injuries yet and is therefore less reluctant to be aggressive on the basepaths.

4) Beltran is a better "real" hitter than Soriano -- about 50 points better in both OBP & SLG (something that doesn't help him in fantasy, but I digress). Therefore, Beltran's speed is a bonus for the Mets, but it isn't nearly as important as his bat. Soriano, on the other hand, derives a lot of his value from being an SB threat, especially given his mediocre OBP from the leadoff spot. I think the Cubs will expect him to run a lot more than the Mets expect Beltran to run.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 11:42 am

Took the words right out of my mouth (sorry, Meat), Chest. On the asset side, Soriano's hr-sb combo is above comparison, he should score a lot of runs, and more importantly than those, he is a selfish player in a fantasy baseball kind of way.

Soriano has cared about stats and will steal a meaningless base or go outside of the zone to drive the ball, a plus for fantasy players.

Liabilities are he is another year older, his batting average will not improve, and more importantly, the contract itself.

This contract could change his good for fantasy baseball attitude, it'll be interesting to see if he takes Beltran's 'If I've got an ouwie, I ain't running' attitude.

In the long run the change of teams won't mean much, he was a second to seventh pick before the signing and he'll be a 2-7 pick after the signing.

But I do think his finest year has already been played and that makes the Cubs the biggest loser in this signing.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 12:08 pm

Originally posted by The Lollygaggers:

It's tempting to compare Soriano to Beltran given Beltran's dropoff in SB, but I think there are several key differences between the two players:

1) Beltran bats third in a lineup with a ton of firepower behind him. With Delgado and Wright hitting behind him, Beltran has less motivation to run. Soriano, on the other hand, will bat leadoff on a team with less ability to score him from first base. He'll have a lot more incentive to run.

2) Jose Reyes already fills the leadoff SB role for the Mets, taking pressure off Beltran to do the same. Soriano is expected to fill the Reyes role for the Cubs.

3) Beltran had a nagging quad injury in 05 and may have had the same in 06. Soriano hasn't experienced those injuries yet and is therefore less reluctant to be aggressive on the basepaths.

4) Beltran is a better "real" hitter than Soriano -- about 50 points better in both OBP & SLG (something that doesn't help him in fantasy, but I digress). Therefore, Beltran's speed is a bonus for the Mets, but it isn't nearly as important as his bat. Soriano, on the other hand, derives a lot of his value from being an SB threat, especially given his mediocre OBP from the leadoff spot. I think the Cubs will expect him to run a lot more than the Mets expect Beltran to run. Some points I agree with some I do not but I can certainly see why someone would project him that way.

After 2006 it would appear as if I was projecting a huge drop in stolen bases for him overall, but I am not. In 2003-2005 he averaged 28 steals a year (you could call 04 a fluke but I choose not to). 28 on average combined with a fat bank account and a couple of more years on the legs is how I get to 25. It will be interesting to see how it ends up and where all he goes. Managers are faced with some difficult choices in the beginning of the first round in 07.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 2:05 pm

2006:

203ab .320 in daylight

443ab .257 at night

bump this puppy up!

Q

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 2:21 pm

You may be right Chest. His drop off in 2004 was due mostly to injury though. I beleive a hamstring he played through if memory serves.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 2:40 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

2006:

203ab .320 in daylight

443ab .257 at night

bump this puppy up!

Q But he was better at night the two previous years. It's probably normal variance due to chance. Besisdes the Cubs don't play that many more day games these days.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 3:29 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

2006:

203ab .320 in daylight

443ab .257 at night

bump this puppy up!

Q But he was better at night the two previous years. It's probably normal variance due to chance. Besisdes the Cubs don't play that many more day games these days. [/QUOTE]well one comp you can use is J.Pierre. Last year he had 346 ab during the day and 348 ab at night. Other than Col. sori couldnt have landed in a better place.

Q

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:06 pm

I agree with Perry on projecting where Fonzie will go in the draft, but in my humble opinion, he's too risky to draft that high. Chest nailed it. People like to talk about upside, but with Sori you have to think about downside. The Soriano people were expecting last year may show up THIS year. He loses 2B eligibility, signs an 8 year contract, and will be 31.

[ November 21, 2006, 12:35 AM: Message edited by: Liquidhippo ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:14 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Now that the Chicago Cubs have corralled Alfonso Soriano with an eight-year, $136 million contract -- placing him in comfy Wrigley Field for 81 games a year -- where do you think he goes on NFBC Draft Day? Is a worthy No. 1, 2 or 3 overall pick? Likely a career year in '06; can't see him being worth a top 3 in '07 but he'll likely go 3rd or 4th in a few lges, maybe even 2nd --- a small minority will expect a repeat of '06.

I think fair value is somewhere between 5th and 12th.

Can he top last year's 40-40 season now that he's with the Cubs and in the leadoff spot fulltime? No, he won't run as often. Last season was a career high in SB attempts, but a low in success pct ... so he hasn't gotten any better at stealing. In a higher scoring lineup he won't need to run as much, he doesn't have the same incentive to achieve the stats that he had last yr, and he's a yr older.

On the road last year, Soriano hit .293 with 22 homers, 51 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. At RFK Stadium, Soriano hit just .260 with 24 homers, 44 RBIs and 18 stolen bases. The 30-year-old is now going to an ideal park in Wrigley Field, so how high can his value be? 280-285 avg

35-38 hr

30-33 sb

115-120 r

90-95 rbi

- He's a career 280 hitter; I see no reason for him to hit less than that in Wrigley with a strong linuep behind him, a slight bump in avg over last yr.

- Last yr's power spike does look like an anomoly. Perhaps he saw better pitches with the Nats being out of games, or some NL pitchers weren't familiar with him? Whatever the reason, I don't think he'll reach 40 again.

What is he worth in an NL-only Rotisserie auction league or an NFBC Mixed Auction League?Fair value should be around $33 for a mixed lge.

Using last year's stats, he's worth about $40, which is probably what it will take to land him this season --- it only takes two in an auction (or sometimes only one and a good bluff).

[ November 21, 2006, 03:19 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 3:03 am

Did somebody mention GB/FB? Goody!

Last year, Soriano hit 143 GB, 88 LD, and 246 FB (30%, 18%, and 52% respectively). All bodes well for repeat of power numbers.

Where will he go? Top five in all most all leagues.

Will he be worth it? Gut feel only, I say no. On power, in 2005 27 guys hit 30+ HR. Of those, 14 (52%) hit fewer the next year. Soriano was one of those that hit more of course, but the odds are against him. He hit only 28 in 2004 and that was in TEX, not a bad park to hit in. On the SB, he could crack 40 again as he now has done it three times in his career and he ain't that old yet. And he is reliable as he has averaged 640 AB and 155 games over the last six years.

Best guess, he will crack 30/30 again but not 40/40. His BA and RBI will take a drop. He hasn't hit better than .280 since 2003. Say 80-90 RBI and a .265 to .270 BA. Runs 100-110. Yes...I know...pretty broad ranges but it is early yet!

I think/believe he motivated himself to get the big(ger) bucks and to get him out of DC. Without that motivation, he will still be a solid three to four category player (including the ever rare SB) and give you 11th to 15th pick in the first round value (BA will hurt).

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 3:20 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Great question. I think Soriano is done hitting for a good average but he can probably hit adequately and anyone who can hit over 40 homers in Washington ought to be able to hit them anywhere. Add on to that, running Lou is his manager, and you have an almost sure thing for 40-50 stolen bases.

I wonder if they will keep him in the leadoff spot, especially if Juan Pierre is pulling together a higher OBP, but Soriano should at least have similar numbers to last year and has to be a top fantasy option any way you cut it. bjoak - you don't need to worry about Pierre bothering Fonzie any more - he signed a five year deal with the Dodgers

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 3:28 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Great question. I think Soriano is done hitting for a good average but he can probably hit adequately and anyone who can hit over 40 homers in Washington ought to be able to hit them anywhere. Add on to that, running Lou is his manager, and you have an almost sure thing for 40-50 stolen bases.

I wonder if they will keep him in the leadoff spot, especially if Juan Pierre is pulling together a higher OBP, but Soriano should at least have similar numbers to last year and has to be a top fantasy option any way you cut it. bjoak - you don't need to worry about Pierre bothering Fonzie any more - he signed a five year deal with the Dodgers [/QUOTE]That could go down as one of the worst signings ever- how much of an upgrade is he over Kenny Lofton? Future headline in 2008 winter meetings Colleti ready to give Pierre away and eat 3/4 of the remaining contract.

What does it do to Furcal's value if anything? I assume he drops to the 2 hole.

Dodgers better figure out who is going to knock those 2 in, sure you can pencil Nomar in for his annual 600 ab's and 155 games played but who else- I hear they have a youngster named Jeff Kent who they are high on.....

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 4:28 am

Okay, if Soriano isn't No. 2 overall, then who is? I would bet that most pre-season magazines -- ours included -- will have Albert Pujols No. 1 and Soriano No. 2. Does Jose Reyes move up? A-Rod? Who? I'll take suggestions, but right now Fantasy Sports Magazine is keeping Soriano at the No. 2 hole.

One interesting point about Soriano is that every year there are naysayers about this guy. His OBP was so bad that it would eventually catch up to him. He was helped by Yankee Stadium's porch dimensions. Then he was really helped by the Ballpark's short fences. Now it's that he's got the money and he will become a fat cat. All are and were legitimate points about Soriano.

But as I've heard scouts say before, some guys are just unexplainable and tough to figure out. Soriano appears to be one of them. The numbers say that eventually that swing-at-everything approach will catch up to him, but he has this incredible knack of putting good wood on the ball more times than not. He has sneaky power and when he's healthy he can steal 30+ bases easily. I also don't believe he was playing just for money as this guy actually seems to love playing baseball.

Yes, it will be nearly impossible to duplicate last year's numbers as that season is one for the ages. But I'm not ready to project much lower numbers just because he turns 31 next year and no longer has 2B eligibility. Lou Piniella will bring out the best in him and there should be excitement around this Cubs' team. Someone show me why I should take him out of our Top 2-3 before we go to press with our first Fantasy Sports Magazine and I'll do it, but until then he stays at No. 2!