Live Chat With Greg & Tom: Monday, 3 pm ET

[Greg Ambrosius]

I meant to do this last week after returning from the LABR Auctions and after Tom and I competed in the Tout Wars Mixed Draft League, but things got away from me. So let's do a Live Chat at the start of next week before another week gets by us.

We'll make sure we're around tomorrow at 3 pm ET for a 1-hour Live Chat. You can also post some questions on this thread in advance and we'll answer those early questions as soon as we can. Bring on baseball questions, LABR questions, auction questions, NFBC questions, Tom turning 60 questions, and anything else on your mind!! Okay, maybe Tom isn't aging in decades, but it sure feels that way. No matter what his age is, we'll be around to answer any and all questions tomorrow.

Thanks for all your support everyone. We are really filling up these final leagues nicely and with any luck we'll sell out almost everything and top last year's numbers. I'm pretty sure we'll have more than 6,000 teams this year for the first time. And next year when we debut the NFBC Cutline Championship, we'll blow past 7,000 teams. It's been a fun ride these last 12 years and this year will be the best ever.

On Wisconsin!! and good luck in all of your March Madness pools. It's a shame that we're not in Las Vegas next week for the start of March Madness (boo to Major League Baseball for pushing the start of the season back a week), but we'll enjoy Sweet Sixteen and Final Four weekends. But damn, I sure wish we were in Sin City next Thursday through Sunday.

Bring on the questions and let's have a fun Chat. We're here to answer what's on your mind. Thanks all and good luck in all your leagues this year.

[Yah Mule]

Okay, here's a fairly easy one. Which hitter and pitcher do you believe are being underdrafted this year and who is being drafted too high?

[Tom Kessenich]

Okay, here's a fairly easy one. Which hitter and pitcher do you believe are being underdrafted this year and who is being drafted too high?

For me, Matt Kemp and Cueto are being underdrafted. Kemp is often going 20 picks after Harper and Braun and I think he's right there with them in terms of value.

Overvalued - Jose Altuve. If you're taking him as a Top 15-20 pick he needs to duplicate his production from last season. I don't think that's realistic or is going to happen.

[mattjb]

Chris Davis & Prince Fielder were middle/end 1st round picks last year. This years ADP suggests 4th and 5th round. If I told you one was going to deliver first round numbers this year which would you say it was and why.

[Tom Kessenich]

Chris Davis & Prince Fielder were middle/end 1st round picks last year. This years ADP suggests 4th and 5th round. If I told you one was going to deliver first round numbers this year which would you say it was and why.

Prince. I don't think his previous power production was based on anything other than his ability.

[mattjb]

Chris Davis & Prince Fielder were middle/end 1st round picks last year. This years ADP suggests 4th and 5th round. If I told you one was going to deliver first round numbers this year which would you say it was and why.

Prince. I don't think his previous power production was based on anything other than his ability.

What are you implying, Tom?

[mdecav]

Overvalued - Jose Altuve. If you're taking him as a Top 15-20 pick he needs to duplicate his production from last season.

????

By your own valuation system he was the best fantasy player last year.

[Tom Kessenich]

Overvalued - Jose Altuve. If you're taking him as a Top 15-20 pick he needs to duplicate his production from last season.

????

By your own valuation system he was the best fantasy player last year.

Do you expect him to do that again? If so then his ADP is justified. I don't which is why I don't like him where he's being taken. I see regression coming.

[mdecav]

Overvalued - Jose Altuve. If you're taking him as a Top 15-20 pick he needs to duplicate his production from last season.

????

By your own valuation system he was the best fantasy player last year.

Do you expect him to do that again? If so then his ADP is justified. I don't which is why I don't like him where he's being taken. I see regression coming.

If he repeats what he did last year, then he's number 1, or very close to it. Given the expected regression, I don't see why his ADP shouldn't be in the 12-20 range. He's been durable and he's a middle infielder.

[mikenj46]

Who are some of your biggest breakout and bust potentials?

How about someone going undrafted in the majority of NFBC drafts you think could be an impact FA?

[Fourslot40]

NCAA question - The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from Myrtle Beach, SC have a first round matchup with Wisconsin. The Big South Champions are very disappointed by the lack of respect in being a 16 seed and are motivated to prove the NCAA wrong. Is this the first time a 16 beats a 1???

[Edwards Kings]

Did you see Raisel Iglesias pitch in the AFL? What do you think of him?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, here's a fairly easy one. Which hitter and pitcher do you believe are being underdrafted this year and who is being drafted too high?

I mentioned this on the air on Wednesday that Nelson Cruz seems to get no love this year because of his move to Seattle. And I understand why, since Safeco Field is a tough hitter's park. But last year on the road, Cruz hit .289 with 25 HRs and 68 RBIs and he hit only .252-15-40 at Camden Yards. He's being drafted like he won't top 25 HRs this year at a time when power is so hard to find. His NFBC ADP is 64, but he's also gone in the 80s regularly and as high as 107th. I think he figures it out in Seattle and puts up big power numbers again this year.

I thought Alex Cobb was being drafted early in the year, but he's now in the Top 75 overall and gaining the love. I definitely think Kenley Jansen is being undervalued right now as he's going outside the Top 100 in some drafts. If he returns by the end of April, he will be the kind of bargain that Aroldis Chapman was last year.

I'm not picking who is overdrafted. I love all my customers!!

[Tom Kessenich]

NCAA question - The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from Myrtle Beach, SC have a first round matchup with Wisconsin. The Big South Champions are very disappointed by the lack of respect in being a 16 seed and are motivated to prove the NCAA wrong. Is this the first time a 16 beats a 1???

No

[Greg Ambrosius]

Chris Davis & Prince Fielder were middle/end 1st round picks last year. This years ADP suggests 4th and 5th round. If I told you one was going to deliver first round numbers this year which would you say it was and why.

I'd definitely take Prince in that one.

Tom found some great research last month that we cited on our show about the defensive switches affecting several left-handed batters. Chris Davis was among the top hitters affected by the shift as the shift was on for him 401 times last year and he hit only .192 against it. Teams used the shift the fourth most times last year against Davis, trailing just Ryan Howard, David Ortiz and Brandon Moss. I think this will continue to mess with his batting average and I think he will see the shift even more this year.

This is something fantasy owners better keep in mind when selecting these power-hitters. I've heard on SiriusXM too many hosts saying that Davis won't hit that low again. Why? Because he's figured out the shift or because he's going to bunt for more base hits against the shift (he did say he may need to learn how to bunt this year)? Maybe it's just me, but I think these shifts are getting to Davis. Maybe Fielder will see more of the same thing this year and struggle with it, too. We'll see.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Overvalued - Jose Altuve. If you're taking him as a Top 15-20 pick he needs to duplicate his production from last season.

????

By your own valuation system he was the best fantasy player last year.

Altuve is a fun player to have on your team as he fills so many holes, but if he's going in the first round this year (forget about last year's numbers) then the SBs and BA are the keys. He had a career-high 65 stolen base attempts last year because he was on base 50 more times than the year before. But we all know that he doesn't walk a lot; thankfully he doesn't strike out a lot, either. Admittedly, he was helped by a .360 BABIP last year, which raised his batting average by 58 points. Before last year, he hit .283, .290 and .276. People are definitely drafting him in the first round hoping for something similar to last year's .341 average and 56 SBs, not the 2-year average before of .287 and 34 SBs.

If he hit .290 with 40 SBs would that be a down year for Altuve? Would it be first round worthy? Or would it be a huge disappointment? I'd say it would be a solid year and one I'd probably project for him in 2015, but he definitely has the skills for more and is already hitting well this spring. It will be fun to see if he's back in the first round in 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's not.

[Greg Ambrosius]

NCAA question - The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from Myrtle Beach, SC have a first round matchup with Wisconsin. The Big South Champions are very disappointed by the lack of respect in being a 16 seed and are motivated to prove the NCAA wrong. Is this the first time a 16 beats a 1???

I think it's possible that a 16 seed could beat a number 1 seed this year because Kentucky is GOING DOWN in the first round!! Nah, unlikely. And unlikely that Wisconsin loses in the first two rounds. This is actually an un-Wisconsinlike team this year. They can score 70+ points a game and they can muscle inside with Kaminsky & Co. They have enough veteran players to win the close games and they shoot free throws very well. You don't want to get behind the Badgers late in the game because they know how to milk the clock and get points late in possessions. And they shoot free throws well.

What the heck is a Chanticleer anyway John? Never heard of that. But yeah, it's cool to have all of these teams in the tournament and thinking upset baby!! I just wish we were all there this weekend betting on every game. Damn, this is tough not to be in Vegas this weekend. Hopefully, MLB goes back to the old schedule and we're back on course next season.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Did you see Raisel Iglesias pitch in the AFL? What do you think of him?

I did not see him in the AFL. Maybe someone like Perry can chime in on him. Sorry.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Who are some of your biggest breakout and bust potentials?

How about someone going undrafted in the majority of NFBC drafts you think could be an impact FA?

I don't know if these guys are going to bust out or not, but I'm real interested to see how Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler do in Chicago. I think Joe Maddon is the perfect coach for these young kids and he will keep them even keel during good times and in bad times. They are going to be fun to watch, but people are drafting them so high right now that it might be tough to get return on that value. But I'm looking forward to finding out.

I also want to see what Gregory Polanco does this year. He was so highly regarded last year and when he first came up I thought he was going to be an instant star. I think if he gets his feet under him early in the year that he could be something special. I like him a lot.

I think a guy who isn't being drafted in the Online Championship yet who could be the top free agent pickup is Hector Oliveras. He has to sign with someone first, but if a team like the Dodgers take a chance on him and call him up to the majors early in the year he could be a huge bargain at second base. He's 29 and a seasoned vet, so let's get him signed soon and see him in action. He could be a difference maker in some leagues.

[Greg Ambrosius]

If you're filling out your NCAA brackets this week, here's a neat little research tool:

http://allstatemarchmayhem.stats.com/

This was put together by our IT team and the guys at Bloomberg Sports. It shows win probability, which can work nicely.

Also, here's a free game if you're interested, also developed by our STATS IT team:

http://www.bdubsgamebreak.com/

[Tom Kessenich]

Oh, as far as overvalued goes if Carlos Gonzalez is being drafted any higher than the final pick in a 50 round DC league than he is being seriously overvalued.

[mattjb]

OK let's talk 2nd base...lots of question marks at the position.

All going in the 16th based on ADP you have Gyorko, Utley & Odor. Who do you see as most likely to out perform that spot in the draft?

[Fourslot40]

NCAA question - The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers from Myrtle Beach, SC have a first round matchup with Wisconsin. The Big South Champions are very disappointed by the lack of respect in being a 16 seed and are motivated to prove the NCAA wrong. Is this the first time a 16 beats a 1???

I think it's possible that a 16 seed could beat a number 1 seed this year because Kentucky is GOING DOWN in the first round!! Nah, unlikely. And unlikely that Wisconsin loses in the first two rounds. This is actually an un-Wisconsinlike team this year. They can score 70+ points a game and they can muscle inside with Kaminsky & Co. They have enough veteran players to win the close games and they shoot free throws very well. You don't want to get behind the Badgers late in the game because they know how to milk the clock and get points late in possessions. And they shoot free throws well.

What the heck is a Chanticleer anyway John? Never heard of that. But yeah, it's cool to have all of these teams in the tournament and thinking upset baby!! I just wish we were all there this weekend betting on every game. Damn, this is tough not to be in Vegas this weekend. Hopefully, MLB goes back to the old schedule and we're back on course next season.

I knew you Wisconsin guys wouldn't give it a chance!! Coastal likes to promote a chanticleer as a "proud and fierce rooster that dominates the barnyard". Years ago, Coastal Carolina used to be a two-year school for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks. They didn't want to call themselves the Gamecocks, but wanted it to be somewhat similar. So, when they got their independence, they went with a teal and gold rooster that they call a "chanticleer".

[DOUGHBOYS]

Okay, here's a fairly easy one. Which hitter and pitcher do you believe are being underdrafted this year and who is being drafted too high?

I mentioned this on the air on Wednesday that Nelson Cruz seems to get no love this year because of his move to Seattle. And I understand why, since Safeco Field is a tough hitter's park. But last year on the road, Cruz hit .289 with 25 HRs and 68 RBIs and he hit only .252-15-40 at Camden Yards. He's being drafted like he won't top 25 HRs this year at a time when power is so hard to find. His NFBC ADP is 64, but he's also gone in the 80s regularly and as high as 107th. I think he figures it out in Seattle and puts up big power numbers again this year.

I thought Alex Cobb was being drafted early in the year, but he's now in the Top 75 overall and gaining the love. I definitely think Kenley Jansen is being undervalued right now as he's going outside the Top 100 in some drafts. If he returns by the end of April, he will be the kind of bargain that Aroldis Chapman was last year.

I'm not picking who is overdrafted. I love all my customers!!

Just a note about Jansen.
His adp is built in the 50 rounders.
50 rounders do not have FAAB. If taking Jansen in a 50 rounder, it forces that team to still get two other closers to make up for Jansen's loss of time. Or at the least, a Closer and 'a half'.
They feel they they have to do this because they don't know how Closer situations will evolve with the timing of these drafts.
His drop in adp is precipitated more by the 50 round game than Jansen himself.

For larger drafts, FAAB comes into play and Closer decisions are mostly made.
Jansen will be taken higher. Bids can be won on the revolving Closer roulette wheel.
ADP, especially over a short period of time can be misleading.

[southpaw23]

Can you give us an update on the Primetime signups and where you project you'll end up in terms of total number of leagues?