Edwards Kings 2015 Main Event Blog

[Edwards Kings]

Nothing like riding the bungee jump of standings. My team ranked anywhere from 1st to 6th over the last several days.



Period 4 Results – You are all my friends. Please, when the shit hits the fan later, remind me of what a good day I had Sunday, May 3rd, please? First, my wife and I went to a Gwinnett Braves game (perfect weather, had a few diet friendly beer-like beverages, saw Peraza and Moya play), then my team had a batting line of six HR, with ten each RBI/R with a stolen base to go with a 0.291 BA. I even had two decent pitching performances getting a win in one, with a 2.132 ERA, 1.105 WHIP and 12 K’s. Pulled me (assuredly temporarily) up from 6th to 3rd (one point back of the Dorito Bandito).



This could have been a week (rather than just a day) to remember if not for four starts, one each by Hamels, Nelson, Sale, and Teheran which cumulatively seriously damaged my pitching stats (17.0 IP, 2.647 WHIP, 12.706 ERA due to 35 hits, 10 walks and 24 earned runs). Ended up for the week with only 3 Wins on 10 starts, a 5.400 ERA and 1.567 WHIP. Did come back with 63 K’s and had three Perkins saves. The Diamonbacks have been horrible so Addison Reed has only had six IP for the month. No wonder he gets hit…he’s got to be rusty as hell. I am falling further behind in saves.

For the month, I have a bad (not crushing) 3.846 ERA and a slightly worse 1.326 WHIP. I am three off my pace for wins and five off my pace for saves. Obviously there is time to turn it around, but since I spent some many key draft spots on pitching, this is a little disappointing. I am even a dozen or so K’s off the pace I wanted to set. To be sure, I am not going find waiver wire fodder better than Sale, Hamels or Teheran. Odorizzi and Miller have been great considering I drafted them to be my fifth and sixth starters (especially if Miller can control the walks). I picked Fiers to be my fourth starter and he has been disappointing in three of his five starts this year. His last one was great, so maybe he is turning the corner. Jimmy Nelson has been up and down, and Garza has been better over three of his last four starts. As go the Brewers, Nelson, Garza, and Fiers go.

The bats, with the one really strong week last week (0.269 BA, 14 HR, 52 R/RBI and 7 steals), have offered more encouragement. For the month, 43 HR, 176 R, 171 RBI, and 26 SB all exceed targets. My cumulative 0.259 BA is being held back by Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Bourn, and Teixeira (though Tex is certainly contributing in three other areas). I have a couple of guys hitting over their heads, but no so much as to be ridiculous, so if some of these others can get a few more hits to drop, I can see improvement.

The first six spots in my league are pretty tight, though Mr. Andrew Robinson is leading the pack nicely. Those in the top four all have 62.0 or more batting points. No other team has more than 47.0 currently. Anthony Palavis leads the way with 64.0 pitching points. No one else has more than 58.5. This means no one is running away with anything yet and everyone is still in the game. In short, we are packed tight.



Period 5 FAAB – We had some activity this week with big bids winning Axford ($255 with a $204 runner up), and Foltynewicz ($153 with an $11 runner up). For the month, we have expended 31% of available budget (though I have only spent 15% and three of us with the most money have between $850 and $869 left). The three at the bottom of the budget pool have from $420 to $466, so still plenty of money for impact bids. We have had seven winning bids greater than $100 including:

Jeurys Familia $385
Jason Grilli $383
Miguel Castro $347
John Axford $255
Mike Foltynewicz $153
Joe Nathan $105
Addison Russell $ 105

As expected, dominated by closers, a couple of which have fallen by the wayside. Risky investments sometimes pay off, sometimes not. Over all, a bid around $30 wins 66% of the time, $90 or less 95% of the time. 55% of the time, there is no runner up bid.

I took a flyer on Kelly Johnson this week ($7) but others had more interest ($26 winning bid, $12 runner up). Kelly is going to get lots of playing time at 3B and OF and has hit the ball pretty well. My first conditional won (Chisenhall $7, no runner up). Lonnie hadn’t done much yet, but did hit 0.318 last week so may be turning things around a bit.

Week 6 Plans – First try not to get depressed when I do not get as many batting points as I had last week.



Next, try not to get too upbeat if my pitching is better.




Still have two areas that I focus in on. First, I can pick up an extra start if I gamble on Garza (at home versus LAD and CHC). Have to be careful...using Garza may have unintended consequences.



Second, trying to maximize middle infield points out of middling options after Dozier (Cabrera, Yunel, and Galvis). Last week I used Panik and Yunel (2 for 22 with one RBI). Of course, while on my bench, Panik and Yunel were 6 for 14 with 5 runs, 2 RBI’s with one HR and a SB. Got it so right again!



Have a good week.

[Edwards Kings]

We have 30 leagues in the Main Event. All leagues are tough.

But get this one. In my league (March 28th, LV 2), there are, as of all games played by the end of May 5th, FOUR teams in the top 30 for Batting Points in the overall. Dan Kenyon leads all of my league with the third best for batting points right now.

We have some pretty good pitching teams as well, but not to this level. It is early, but right now the "hot" players are concentrated in only a few teams creating some pretty sick results.

[Edwards Kings]

OK. You’ve been good. You’ve been kind. You’ve been deferential. Dinner. Cards. Flowers. Mother’s Day is over and THANK GOD we can get back to normal.



I have rarely (ok, never) been in this position before at this late early stage of the season. Yes, I meant late early. Five weeks in which is just under 20% of the season gone and I have ridden my offense (in the top ten offense overall, but only 2.5 Overall points ahead of Doughboys) to a first place spot, knowing that right now there are six teams tight enough that one day can still totally scramble the current top three positions. My offense has been driven by some monster Runs, RBI, and HR totals, especially this week. Right now my BA is in the top ten percent of the overall and my SB totals just two out of that target though slightly ahead of the target I set for the team at this point in the year. Pitching? Good and bad, so mix together with liberal amounts of cussing and you get pretty mediocre results.

Week 5 Results – Rarely have I had a week for like this. I had the fifth best week in the Overall (just ahead of Mike the Mouth who is leading his NY April 2nd Main Event League…congrats on the early success Mikey!). On offense, I ended up with a 0.304 BA (lead by out of control Holliday, Yunel, and Russell Martin), 47 Runs scored (Dozier had 7), 60 RBI’s (that is a week and a half of targets with Hosmer tossing in 10 by his self), 18 HR (Trout had three, but Martin, Vogt, Hosmer, Dozier, and Trumbo each had two) and five SB. Pitching was more of a mixed bag. Thanks to Perkins (3) and the one by Reed who woke up a bit, I hit my Saves target, though I am still four or five saves off pace. I had only three wins in nine starts putting me further behind (four) of where I want to be in wins. Despite massive clunkers by two of my anchors (Sale and Teheran), I ended up improving my ERA and WHIP with weekly 3.256 and 1.116 results respectively, but it took two great starts Sunday by Odorizzi and Garza (no wins) to get there. The best news is K’s are up and walks (in general) were down. The 73 K’s I got put me back on target (need to get to or exceed 1,400 K’s this year, so each week I need between 50 and 55).

Great, but I know a lot of guys cannot/will not keep up the white-hot pace of last week, especially on offense. The cooling off will come and I will not like it.



Week 6 FAAB – Since I have rarely had this kind of success early (early success, of course, means nothing), I have to keep reminding myself of the old adage…



But neither can I rest on imaginary laurels. Yunel Escobar left the game early and I did not find out until later that it was just a stomach bug. Still, Yunel is a mediocre option at best, I used him last week to GREAT success, but I saw some risk (yes, see cartoon above). With Asdrubal stinking it up (though with minor signs of life since they moved him out of the three hole), I decided to drop Yunel and pick up Nick Franklin to hedge my bets in the Tampa infield. I won him with a lonely $5 bid. Sam Fuld has worn out his welcome on my bench (I am sure he will be picked up and dropped several more times this year when he gets his semi-regular playing time) and I wanted to pick up a pitcher. My first three choices Whitley, Daniel Norris (might should have gone more in on him) and Weaver went for more than the $5, $3, $1 I was willing to bid. I picked up Robbie Ray, whom I had my eye on. I know Bradley is due back, but there are a lot of questions around the Diamondback rotation. Cost me a buck, so low risk.

Currently more than a third of the money in the league has on average already been spent. I have a few more bucks left than anyone else, so I am primed to make a move if necessary.



Week 7 Plans – First, try not to screw up too bad. By releasing Yunel and with Franklin not yet activated, I will start Freddy Galvis at MI. He stole a couple of bases over the weekend and it would be nice to see that again. Philly sucks this year, but he has been hitting up in the line-up more than not. Actually the stolen bases are basically on, but not better than target. I could use a few more to build a cushion. For that reason I will roll the dice on Bourn again at UT at least for the first half of the week. Cleveland plays in Texas over the weekend and Chisenhall could replace Bourn in that spot. None of these moves should jeopardize the teams R/HR/RBI early results.

I know I have to look forward to some bats cooling off, especially Vogt. A few other guys are hotter than expected to, like Teixeira’s power. However, to offset, I have guys like Asdrubal underperforming (even for Asdrubal) and Alvarez has not had one of his hot streaks neither. Maybe the biggest risk on my team is Trumbo. When Lamb comes back, Tomas will have to play somewhere and the Diamondback outfield is full (Enciarte, Pollock, Peralta). Trumbo, who has hit well, though with disappointing counting stats, could get more rest than he needs.

Pitching will once again be which two Brewer pitchers I should use (since right now, Ray is not a probable starter). I have Fiers, Nelson, and Garza. Last week, I rolled the dice on Garza’s two starts and it paid off. He could have won both games (i.e. won none), but gave me a 2.769 ERA, a WHIP of one, and 14 K’s. Fiers, on the other hand, struck out eight (nice), but walked five and gave up five ER (not so nice). One for me. Actually, my pitching has only two really big holes. One, saves. Perkins has been great (certainly top 10 closer results so far), but Reed has either been a mess or had no chances. Reed did save one this weekend, so hopefully the Diamondbacks will give more opportunities. I have Ziegler if Reed falters. I also have Tony Watson. I still think Melancon is at high risk, so Watson as a closer in waiting is worth a reserve slot.

The other problem is the top of my rotation. Sale was not drafted expecting an ERA just under six, a WHIP of 1.610 and 18 ER in his first five starts, 13 in his last two. Damn right I am concerned. No way can I sit him. Neither can I sit Teheran (my third starter picked at the 6/7 turn) who has given up 20 ER in his first seven starts (15 in three of them). Of bigger concern is the fact he has just plain been hittable with less than pinpoint control. I will not find better upside in the FA pool, so my fate is in their hands as long as they are “healthy”. My #2 guy is Hamels, who is pitching better of late but he has already walked 21 batters (walked between 52 and 59 over the last three years). He has walked as few as two only twice in his first seven starts. Fifth and sixth starters are Odorizzi and Miller. Both could keep up the good work but I would be surprised if both ended the year top 15 pitchers. Some correction is coming. Then I rotate my three Brewer pitchers in and out of my #4 (drafted Fiers there) and #7 (Nelson) with Garza being planned to be a swing man. Fiers has been a K machine, but has also given up 18 ER and 37 hits in less than 30 IP (six starts). Everything looks great for Jimmy Nelson other than the 17 ER in six starts/36 IP. Most of that can be attributed to that seven ER game in which he did not make it out of the third inning in Cincinnati. Garza has not been solid until last week with 19 walks and 19 ER in only 42.1 IP. The 33 K’s is not enough, but again, last week was a good week for him, and he has been solid if unspectacular over the last couple of years (while healthy). I know I have a problem with wins with three Brewers, two Braves, a Philly, and a Ray eating up most of my roster spots. To really have a chance at this I have to fix my saves problem (hindsight, but would have been better with less money and Familia or Grilli on my team) and have my stud pitchers pitch to ability to bring my ERA and WHIP down.

All I need is for my players to be comfortable enough to be themselves.



If the image above is disturbing, it must be a systems glitch, so press the correct button below...



to get the proper picture.



Better, yes?

[ALL-IN JD]

Nice job Wayne! Keep it up!

[King of Queens]

Wayne, just a quick thanks for the work you put into this blog. There's a ton of useful info in here, and I find it helpful to see how you approach the process each week.

Good luck!

[Doctor Who]

I see you lurking in the top 25 Overall...

I told you in Vegas it would be awesome to read both of these blogs competing for an overall title! Onward and upward Wayne! Let's both try to be top 10 by the all-star break. That's an achievable goal right?

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Great guy, great blog. Not a look at me type of blog that ends the second the season goes south. Very enjoyable.

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks guys. I appreciate the kind words.

Would you do a favor for me? Could you deliver something from me to Garza?



Nighty night!!!

[knuckleheads]

Thanks guys. I appreciate the kind words.

Would you do a favor for me? Could you deliver something from me to Garza?

Nighty night!!!

I don't get how managers, after say 5-7 runs, don't understand their pitcher doesn't "have it" that day.

[GetALife]

Thanks guys. I appreciate the kind words.

Would you do a favor for me? Could you deliver something from me to Garza?



Nighty night!!!

So he sleeps with the fishes Edwards?

[Edwards Kings]

I guess more accurately now my ERA and WHIP sleep wit da fishes....

[Edwards Kings]

How much did you invest in starting pitching? The top 15 after the drafts were (first number ADP; second number current SP rank per the NFBC):
1. Kershaw 34
2. Hernandez 1
3. Scherzer 2
4. Strasburg Not in the top 100
5. Sale 51
6. Price 41
7. Bumgarner 20
8. Kluber 46
9. Cueto 12
10. Greinke 4
11. Harvey 6
12. Zimmerman 58
13. Lester 55
14. Wainwright Not in the top 100, out for the year.
15. Hamels 27

One third of the top fifteen drafted starting pitchers are providing top 15 starting pitcher points. Some of us had guys who were not drafted as anchors now acting like them like Miller, Gray, Keuchel, Archer, Cole, Pineda, Arrieta, or even the absolute surprises like Colon and Harang to take the sting out. I myself have Sale and Hamels. Both pitched better last week. At the end of the day, I do not have the cajones to sit an Ace, so I am hoping the turnaround continues.

Period 6 Results – I will not bore you with how well my bats are doing. It would be unseemly to brag so much….



But you know we are never satisfied. I am exceeding the top end of my targets in all batting areas except one. Steals. I am on point, which in prior years would be a situation that would give me comfort. Now, I am worried that I am ONLY on point. What a sickness. Or is it just showing my feminine side since I am doing well and still not satisfied….



We have thin benches, so we need to populate with as much replacement power and speed that we can, but I seem only worried about speed as I have nine ballplayers that have contributed at least six HR so far this year. Probably not a good idea.

Pitching is a tale of three assholes. The first asshole is me. I was so cocky after getting two good starts out of Garza (Asshole #2), I started him again this week against the Mutts. After all, how many runs have the Mets been scoring this year and surely Counsell, who must be MUCH smarter than Ron Roenicke, would not let a pitcher take one in the johnnies, right? A-hole #3 is Reed. What a total FUBAR.



These two nimrods (Reed and Garza) made up 11% of my IP last week, but 50% of my ER and 28% of my hits/BB. Devastating. Without them, my ERA is 2.408 and my WHIP is less than one. Damn.

Period 7 FAAB – It is Franco time! What a range. In one Online League, he went for $6 while one of the smartest guys I have met during these years got him for $425. I bid such that he would not go cheaply in my league ($131), but was not second place. Didn’t plan on getting him, but I ended up with my last choice, Mark Reynolds. Right now only playing against LHers, but Matt Adams is not necessarily knocking the cover off the ball so you never know. $1 flyer.

My concern for speed and the continued disappointment in Bourn lead me to bid $51 on Aaron Hicks (only $50 more than the second place bid). Hicks has all the qualifications of a AAAA players, but he is only 25 so he could pan out.

Funny think about Bourn. When I picked up Reynolds and Hicks, I dropped Ray and Ike Davis, so I am still stuck with him. I have no real idea why I have a man-crush on him.



Do you ever have a feeling and you just can’t shake it? I still expect him to start stealing bases.

Period 7 Plans – Ok, let’s all agree. I will sit Matt Garza and he will throw a perfect game against Atlanta this week. The good news is I have lots of two start pitchers this week which is good as I really did not like the options in the FA pool this week. The bad news is two of those pitchers are Brewers and two of those games are in Detroit. Am I rolling the dice or playing a more serious game with my ERA and WHIP?



I also get two starts out of Hamels and Sale. Teheran, Miller, and Odorizzi round out the starting staff. I have no idea how much better Brad Ziegler will be than Reed or if the Diamondbacks will have any more chances, but I saved myself anywhere from $107 to $334 dollars by picking him up a couple of weeks ago. Glen Perkins is my other (only?) closer.

As to bats, I will not be testing my Bourn theory early this week. Cleveland will be going against the ChiSox this week and four consecutive left-handers. Minnesota (and therefore Hicks) only plays two games early, so I will stick with Aoki as my fifth outfielder (Trout, Marte, Holliday, and Trumbo are the others). I am not sure what injury he had, but SF DHed him, then sat him four games this past week. He played yesterday and had a good day so hopefully he is ok. Dozier (who is finally coming alive), Asdrubal (who is not) and Galvis (still surprisingly good) are my MI with Franklin on my bench until I can get a feel for how fast he works his way into consistent AB. Shouldn’t be too long, but I do not know who will sit between Forsythe and Cabrera. Probably Forsythe but Cabrera has been brutal.

My Cornermen include the ageless (but not shift-less) Teixeira, Alvarez, and Hosmer. Chisenhall will start the week at UT. Catchers are the dynamic duo of Russell Martin and Vogt.

Going to be MIA for parts of the rest of this month and the last half of June. I will have some time to check in, but little time to write, so if this dribble becomes a little less frequent, blame it on the real world.

[Edwards Kings]

The definition of luck from Merriam Webster:

1) The things that happen to a person because of chance
2) The accidental way things happen without being planned
3) Good fortune
4) Success in doing or getting something
5) Having two Brewer pitchers on the road consecutive nights in Detroit and coming away with a win and cumlative ERA/WHIP of 1.9756/1.024.

[NorCalAtlFan]

shut it Georgia boy!

[King of Queens]

Top 10! Keep up the great work, but maybe ease up JUST a bit

[Edwards Kings]

Top 10! Keep up the great work, but maybe ease up JUST a bit

Thanks Glenn, but -

Schroeder/Berg, Schroter, Lemke, Asch, Emma/Srebro, Stadtmueller, Morgan(s), Edwards, Sedler/Moody, Jup(r)inka...

Yup, one of these things is not like the others.....



I can't slow down, but could you and the rest just shift just a bit to the right so I can maybe have a chance to paddle past?

[Edwards Kings]

I feel silly. I just wrote an entire blog and lost it. Sorry...I will try to catch up later.

[Doctor Who]

Been there done that. Now I do it on word before coming here. Nothing like spending an hour or so and seeing it disappear... The most helpless feeling there is.

[Edwards Kings]

You got that right. I normally do, but I was just going to jot something down quickly and as so often is the case, the shortcut wasn't.

Back on track.

“O wonder! How many godly creatures are there here! How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world, that has such people in't.”—William Shakespeare, The Tempest, Act V, Scene I, ll. 203–206

I find myself in an interesting place, at least for me. With eight full periods or just over 30% of the season gone, I have a decent base for my team, am in the hunt for my league championship (though I have “slipped” to second) and while I am no longer in the top 10, I am still in the top 20 of the overall. This has me fired up!



I have spent my NFBC career as catch-up (starving) artist and would-be FAAB spoiler. Now I have to look at my team, I am guess as many others who are doing well are, honestly to determine what is fluke, where are weaknesses, and where can I make up enough points to take it to the top. Looking at my team it is not tough to see that I am buoyed by certain batting stats. I am leading my league in R/HR/RBI and am 12th/19th/12th respectively in those categories in the Main and that is after a very mediocre offensive week by this teams standards. In my review, I am propped up by some surprising production at first base (Teixeira, Hosmer), the fact I have five outfielders in the top 40, and the top two ranked catchers. Some (hopefully not all) are real candidates to fade and I really have not been impacted by the injuries others have been decimated with. With seven reserve spots, I will need to look for and keep a couple of players that are investments that I hope will be able to adequately fill in for those that fade/fail/come back to earth.

Outside of R/HR/RBI, BA has been surprisingly adequate and a 0.270 team BA (my target) is not out of the question. As long as I continue to stay in this range I can challenge for 12.0 or 13.0 points in the category as well as try to get to 80% of available points in the overall. Of greater concern is SB. While Marte and Trout are pitching in about what you could expect, Nori Aoki has stolen more than expected, Dozier less. I knew going in I needed one more good steals candidate in order to maintain my target of about six SB per week. I have been disappointed in Bourn and have picked up Hicks as well to try and bolster the category. To date, I am only a couple off the pace, but still see this as my biggest batting category at risk.

Outside of Dozier, my MI is at the very least suspect. I missed most of Galvis early good results, but currently have him in as he has kept his BA up and stolen me a couple of bases. Asdumbell Cabrera continues to disappoint (2H turn around?). I will continue to move MI candidates in and out of my roster to try and strengthen this position for me.

Pitching, however, has been either less than adequate or unlucky, which is a disappointment as I invested so heavily. My ERA and WHIP has been battered by the blow-up. Sale had two horrible starts late April/early May, probably the impact of limited Spring Training, and Teheran, who had two K’s in two starts last week, really concerns me as he had another blow up start last week and these blow-ups keep pulling me back.



With even one of those blow-up avoided, I would probably be on target with WHIP and ERA. I could be in such a better place. But even so, I am in the hunt for K’s (though I will fall back a few places this week due to limited number of available starts). Two areas of greatest concern, especially since one is so flukey, are Wins and Saves. I am trying to deal with saves (I have Perkins, who has been great, and the Arizona closer-du-jour, who have not) by stockpiling some “potential” closers. As to wins, what can I do? I expected the teams my pitchers are on to be better than they are. Currently I have zero wins out of my relievers and only about a 33.7% win percent per game started (expected/needed 44% or 45%). I can look for streaming options but there are not many in our FA pool.

Overall, I think my team has a real chance. I have to protect certain areas but the core is solid. For those in my way...look out. I am coming for you....

[GetALife]

no injuries or no major injuries are key to your placement at the moment along with having a good team obviously. also, though regression may be coming. there are so many players that have yet to do anything. Cano only has how many HR's? He could still end up in the 20's and get there by a solid last 2/3 of the season. On the opposite side, Frazier could slow down. Isn't he at 16 or 17 already? Maybe he'll get 30-35 but I'd be surprised if he got to 55+ HR. Never know.

I'd say if you stay injury free the whole way since you said you have been then you will have a serious shot at winning it. I think that most of the teams at the top at the end of the year do stay healthy nearly all year. This is the one reason I'm not sure how long I will keep playing season-long leagues. I can never keep a healthy team no matter who I draft. Could be a player that has never been injured in 10 years and he'd get injured the year I draft him. It's just the way it is ~ Bruce Hornsby

[Edwards Kings]

no injuries or no major injuries are key to your placement at the moment along with having a good team obviously. also, though regression may be coming. there are so many players that have yet to do anything. Cano only has how many HR's? He could still end up in the 20's and get there by a solid last 2/3 of the season. On the opposite side, Frazier could slow down. Isn't he at 16 or 17 already? Maybe he'll get 30-35 but I'd be surprised if he got to 55+ HR. Never know.

I'd say if you stay injury free the whole way since you said you have been then you will have a serious shot at winning it. I think that most of the teams at the top at the end of the year do stay healthy nearly all year. This is the one reason I'm not sure how long I will keep playing season-long leagues. I can never keep a healthy team no matter who I draft. Could be a player that has never been injured in 10 years and he'd get injured the year I draft him. It's just the way it is ~ Bruce Hornsby

I feel your pain. In 2004, I picked as one of my anchors a guy who in the prior three years went (BA/R/HR/RBI) .330/113/33/102; .327/90/26/100; .305/103/27/106. Childs was in that league and he told me he couldn't trust the player (and I thought here was a nice guy clearly out of his depth). In 2004 he went .248/69/30/96. And Larry Jones never had a hint of steroid use. It is painful sometimes.

I agree with what you say about injuries, but not totally. Injuries happen. Injuries are going to happen to my team (there may be one now, albeit unreported, with Teheran). In season long leagues, what separates the guys like Lowy, Jupinka, Clum, Lindy, Jenstad and the host of others who have collectively handed me my ass over these years from me is they have the superior ability to manage their rosters to, if not absolutely correct, then at least mitigate the damage of injuries during the year, especially since most injuries are not the "end the season types". I do not have equal ability in that regard.

Some seasons numbers of injuries are overwhelming, but usually it is just one of the challenges that comes along with the game.

[Edwards Kings]

“I’m falling and I need help getting up!”



Period 9 Results – I need luck. Or better stated, a little regression to the mean. I cannot buy a Win. It was bad enough for Odorizzi to suffer a strained oblique (my first starter injury…yes, you can hate me), but it had to happen 2/3 of an inning in a shutout performance BEFORE being eligible for the win. That has been my norm this year. For the week, I won on 25% of the games started. For the year, I am only winning 32.9% of my starts and though you do not count on them, we are a third of the way through the season with me getting zero wins from my relievers. Every other team in my league (except John Pausma) has at least one win from relievers. Why is that really important? Because on further review, the reliever wins are really a deciding factor in my league. Yes, my 32.9% is unlucky (however, wish an extra bag of Doritos! to Dan Kenyon who has a starter win % of 27.6%), but the league average is only 33.4%. Last year, in my league, we had a cumulative win percentage per game started of 38.4%, so from this very small scale statistical inference, it looks like we have a bit of a trend and for most of us, that 100 Win bogey may be difficult to obtain. This doesn’t help me feel better as I am in next to the last place in Wins in my league though I am one of the five teams in the league with more than 81 games started so far. Last year, I averaged just under 9 games per week (this year basically the same) with similar ERA and WHIP and had a 44.9% winning percentage. I need that luck back as I am nine wins (just a little more than two weeks) behind where I want to be.

I could jack up the number of games started by streaming another starter, but that would be counter to another pitching stat that I am behind the curve on. Saves has been getting better since Ziegler took over as the Diamondback closer, but if I stream him (or Perkins) out, I will lose the ground I just made up. Andrew Robinson is leading my league in saves with 51 to date from three closers (Familia, Casilla, and Rosenthal), but there is a tightly banded group of four teams in the second tier with between 37 and 33 saves. I lead another tight group from the third division with 29 but am only two or three off the pace I set at the beginning of the year.

K’s are doing great (second place in my league) with ERA (fourth place) serviceable. WHIP is of concern as three of my pitchers (Teheran, Miller, and Nelson) are barely striking out more than two batters per walk (though Miller, despite last weeks stinker, ain’t allowing may people to get hits off him). Teheran and Fiers have also allowed more than a hit per IP. Again this week the blow-ups killed me. I still hit my ERA target and exceeded my saves target, but came up short on K’s (expected with only 8 starts), wins and WHIP.

Batting had strong HR and SB results, mediocre runs and RBI’s, but man did my BA TANK! Most of my points drop in the week was due to that .203 average for the week taking me off the pace. I knew I was at risk and boy did it come home. Ten of my players did not hit at least .250 last week and five in particular went a combined 9 fer 99 (0.0909). Nice….

Period 10 FAAB – I did not do a detailed write up last week but I picked up Cishek (way, way, WAY overpaid as it turned out) in my seeming never ending quest to solidify my closers. Down in the minors, I do expect him to turn it around and re-establish himself. I also picked up Cody Asche last week, but am already down on him. This week, I picked up Juan Uribe, who will get the lion’s share of starts at third base. He rides the pine for me as a potential injury fill-in. I also picked up Trevor May who has two starts (v KC and @ TEX). May has been a little hittable, but has exhibited a good K-rate and EXCELLENT control (only walked nine batters this year so far). With Odorizzi likely headed to the DL with the strained oblique, May could be a decent streamer. I tried to pick up Jace Peterson, who strangely enough was dropped in my league last week. Doughboy’s had me by a buck on that one. Could be a decent pick up for Dan. My first supplemental was Lindor, who may be called up soon. No dice there either. I ended up with my Jawja boy, Gordon Beckham who is garnering some AB and is experiencing a bit of a revival. I need an upgrade to Galvis, who after a hot start has gone predictably cold. Beckham probably is not it, but who knows, maybe some team will call up a hot prospect that might be part of the answer for next weeks FA bidding. Could be…hmmmm….I wonder who it could be? Sweet anticipation.



Period 10 Plans – Not many changes to my starters. I just hope they hit for average and pitch to wins this week. The biggest change will be May in for Odorizzi. I am chewing up three reserve slots on potential closers (Cishek, Watson, and Reed). Need to pick two, or two better and stick with the results. Beckham, Uribe and Bourn round out my bench.

Advice for the week...remember, things are not always as perceived...



Then again, maybe it is...

[Edwards Kings]

Todd Zola or Dan Kenyon may have this number. I do not. How many games started should a pitcher win when they give up 2 ER or less?

I do know how many my pitchers have NOT WON after giving up two earned runs or less. 31. I have the benefit of course of the ERA for those 31 games (1.899) and WHIP (1.148) and a nearly 3:1 K to BB ratio. Included in the 31 are 17 games that the pitchers gave up one run or less. Of the games where my pitchers gave up two earned runs my team is 5 – 8 with six no decisions. I have had nine games where my pitchers gave up three earned runs. Only one win.

For the week I had a 3.120 ERA with a WHIP of 1.173 in eleven starts with 85 K’s. I all, I had 10 starts where the pitcher shoulda/coulda/woulda won. I ended up with three wins.

Sick. Just sick. Don’t even get me started about inherited runners who have been allowed to score…



I head out to Omaha for work this week so one piece of good news is I will be able to take in (weather permitting) at least one game. This will be a first for me.

I did not win the Correa stakes. I wasn’t even second. I did not think it would take $400+ to get him but it did. I was not even second though my bid was far from cheap. I guess everyone is surer than I am that Lowrie and Valbuena will platoon at third when Lowrie comes back. Of course, if Houston falls off the pace they could be sellers at the trade deadline. Tough to imagine as they are in first in their division right now, but who knows if the wheels come off. Definitely lost my swagger.



I had been lucky on my team with injuries. Not this week as Holiday, Odorizzi and Hicks all went on the DL. Besides Correa, I was very active in the FA pool this week. I keep going in and out on Nick Franklin, whom I picked up for $13 as my first conditional on Correa. I keep thinking there is a decent ball player in there. I dropped Freddy Galvis whose early season success has died on the vine. I also picked up Scooter Gennett. Couldn’t tell you what the guy looks like. Every time I hear his name I see….



So I am still looking to upgrade the middle infielders outside of Dozier. I lost out on my $13 bid on Garza (another guy I have a hard time giving up on). I picked up Copeland from Toronto instead hoping he replicates his last start in the bigs. He has one NL park start (NYM) and one home AL park (BAL). I dropped Tony Watson, who at one time looked like a “smart” pick-up. Melancon may not be dealing, but he is racking up saves making Watson my sacrificial lamb.

In place of Hicks and Bourn (in a pure platoon now and just not stealing) I rolled the dice on Efren Navarro and Tyler Moore. Neither will set the world on fire, but Navarro right now is getting most of the LF reps in Anaheim. Moore may play while Zimmerman is out. May not.

My team is in solid second place in my league and hanging in the top 25 of the Overall. Most years that would have me jumping out of my skin (which tells you how rare success has been). Now I am a bit ho-hum because I want to take it to the next level. I am falling off Steals right now and I have fallen and can’t get up for Wins. I am trending well in R, RBI, and HR. Even BA is on a bit of an uptick. I am going to struggle to replace Holiday (who was tracking as a #4 OFer and helping my BA),losing Hicks hurts me in SB, and Trumbo has not warmed to Safeco, so my OF is in a bit of a mess outside of Trout, Marte, and Aoki. Teixeira and Hosmer are both top 15 CM, but Alvarez is sitting more. I have already written about my MI outside of Dozier. Vogt and Martin have cooled a bit, but are still outpointing Posey. No one is hitting so far over their heads as to be unsustainable but the two open OF spots, a CM and a MI need to be address as does steals (somehow).

ERA, WHIP, and K’s are doing well (38.0 points out of those three categories in my league) and I still sit near the top of the third tier of saves with 9.5 points (Perkins and now more solid Ziegler with Chisek in the wings waiting to get his job back). I see upside in Sale (the White Sox were not supposed to be this bad), Hamels (TRADE HIM FOR GOD’S SAKE), Teheran (though the Braves need to fix the leaky bullpen), Miller (ditto), and Odorizzi (hope he gets back soon to take advantage of the surprising Rays who are six games over .500). Fiers is not walking many and has an excellent K rate (116%), but man has he been hittable when he is not striking them out. Also, it took 13 games for him to finish the seventh inning. Nelson needs to cure the gopheritis (10 HR in 13 GS).

In short, I am still at the dance, but feel a beat behind the tune so my best moves might be ahead of me.

[Doctor Who]

I must be taking all your wins as my team has all the blowups the past few weeks, yet have maintained the pace. I'll trade my wins though for your offense!

Keep up the good work, and let's both have a good next three weeks before the allstar game to get us both back in the top 10.

[Edwards Kings]

Sale...8 IP...no runs...two hits no walks...14 K's....NO WIN!