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Tomorrow we'll list the Top 20 Second Basemen from our NFBC Content Panel and discuss the good and the bad about this position. I'm still missing quite a few lists, so send them to me tonight if you have the time guys. Thanks. I think I have half of them in.



We'll discuss this position at length soon, but I'm finding it to be one of the most intriguing positions in years. Yes, Chase Utley is clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the class here as he's the only player here worth $30 or more in auction leagues. But there are several youngsters who will either break out or bust out this year who are very intriguing.



Guys like Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Robinson Cano, Jose Lopez, Brandon Phillips, Josh Barfield and Ian Kinsler have great upside and prove that the cupboard isn't bare here. Veterans like Freddy Sanchez, Ray Durham, Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Marcus Giles, Jeff Kent, Julio Lugo, Placido Polanco, Jorge Cantu and Craig Biggio makes things interesting. It's not a one and out group at this position, but you have to tread carefully in this minefield.



We'll rank the Top 20 and have fun with this. Thanks guys for helping with the Top 20 rankings.

I am guessing that Kent will be a little underrated this year. He is getting older, and had an injury last year which curtailed his stats. He came on very strong in August and September.



I expect him to end up top 3 in 2007. Solid 6th or 7th round pick considering position scarcity although he may slip a bit. Especially with Pierre and Furcal setting the table and who knows what power hitter they'll end up having hitting behind Kent. Kent can still rake.



Rickie Weeks is very intriguing. I'm big on Jose Lopez. That guy flat out produces, but the lack of stolen bases at the middle infield position hurts.



I'm sure by the end of 2007 we'll have some breakout stars at the 2nd base spot, but right now all I see is question marks. I'd much rather play it safe than take a 50/50 flyer on one of these young guys. Just my take.

Here is the consensus Top 20 Second Basemen to get on NFBC Draft Day, according to our NFBC Content Panel:



1. Chase Utley

2. Brian Roberts

3. Rickie Weeks

4. Dan Uggla

5. Robinson Cano

6. Tadahito Iguchi

7. Brandon Phillips

8. Josh Barfield

9. Ian Kinsler

10. Jeff Kent

11. Marcus Giles

12. Ray Durham

13. Luis Castillo

14. Julio Lugo

15. Orlando Hudson

16. Howie Kendrick

17. Jorge Cantu

18. Freddy Sanchez

19. Ty Wigginton

20. Jose Lopez



Here's a few interesting notes:



** All of our NFBC panelists chose Utley #1.



** Roberts ranked anywhere from 2nd to 7th, but was ranked 2nd by two-thirds of our panelists.



** Weeks ranked anywhere from 2nd to 9th, but for the most part was mainly 2nd or 3rd. Uggla ranked anywhere from 2nd to 10th.



** The Top 20 is loaded with different opinions. Robinson Cano ranked anywhere from 3rd to 10th; Brandon Phillips ranked anywhere from 2nd to 13th; Josh Barfield ranked anywhere from 3rd to 14th; Ian Kinsler ranked anywhere from 4th to 20th; Jeff Kent ranked anywhere from 4th to 20th; Ray Durham ranked anywhere from 3rd to 20th; Julio Lugo ranked anywhere from 4th to 20th; and Howie Kendrick ranked anywhere from 4th to 20th. It's tough to get a consensus on any of these guys.



** No rookies made it into the Top 20, just like at first base.



Pretty interesting data, just to start out. Any thoughts from the NFBC family?



[ December 05, 2006, 03:53 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



Brandon Phillips ranked anywhere from 2nd;

Jeff Kent ranked anywhere from 4th;

Ray Durham ranked anywhere from 3rd;

Julio Lugo ranked anywhere from 4th;

these must be the bong brother rankings

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



Brandon Phillips ranked anywhere from 2nd;

Jeff Kent ranked anywhere from 4th;

Ray Durham ranked anywhere from 3rd;

Julio Lugo ranked anywhere from 4th;

these must be the bong brother rankings [/QUOTE]Agreed on these names, I have all much lower. But I was the extreme end on a number of others Greg listed, both high and low, so from my view there look to be a lot of good (and bad) values at 2B. Gotta be the most interesting position this year among positional players.

Sorry, I skewed the data on Lugo. I didn't realize he qualified at 2B. I've basically been looking at every player's positional at bats and trying not to miss anyone. It is time consuming when doing these and I am dreading outfielders. I would suggest others have been doing the same which is why a lot of 20's came up. Does anyone know where a list of 2007 eligibles can be found?



I'd have put Lugo 6th. Sorry again.

I wrote up this essay on the second base class. Read it if you're interested and feel free to comment on the merit (or lack thereof) in my argument.



Brian Oakchunas



The Value of Looking Deep in this Year’s Weak Second Base Class



Looking at this year’s crop of second basemen can be quite frustrating for the fantasy owner. Chase Utley is the only clear first tier player in front of a sea of. . .more questionable options. This is easily the weakest position in 2007 and possibly the weakest position, excepting catcher, in years.



The knee-jerk reaction may be to think that you have no other option than to try for Utley in the first or, failing that, grab a Rickie Weeks or Brian Roberts in the third. Yikes. This is a frightful situation when you think of all the much better power hitters that will be passing you by as you select the injury-prone, low batting average Weeks or the please-God-let-him-hit-like-it’s-2005 Roberts. Fortunately, there is a solution for this dilemma that doesn’t include using up an early or even mid-round pick.



In order to elaborate on my proposal, let us first consider late round picks. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) 23 active players belong to each team. That means if an owner fills up all his active positions first, he will select his last active player in round 23. To continue thinking about the NFBC where 15 managers compete in each league, a 23rd round everyday player has, at best, marginal value and is easily replaceable by a typical player available on waivers (fantasy replacement level, to those initiated in the jargon).



The first benefit to taking your second baseman in a late round is that though the overall second base class is weak, a marginal 23rd rounder is not likely to be much worse than a marginal player at another position (think Sean Casey). There are a variety of options like Mark Grudzielanek or Adam Kennedy who at least won’t drag down your batting average like a skullcap on Carrot Top’s hair. Or you can look at other options like Jose Valentin if you really need power or Mark Ellis if you want to gamble that he has a repeat of 2005 in him. You never know: it could work out better than the Rickie Weeks gamble.



However, there is a much larger advantage to this strategy. If most of the fantasy second basemen are fairly weak, we also know that major league teams will be weak in that department. Much akin to what happens with a weak closer class, the major league teams are likely to want to try replacing their second basemen with backups and minor leaguers to see if they can do better. This means that there will be a steady flow of new second basemen receiving regular playing time available on waivers. If you are aware of your weakness at the position and your need to improve it, you can pick up a number of these players and see if one sticks. You may just end up with a player like Hanley Ramirez or Felipe Lopez who comes out of nowhere to set the world on fire. And picking up a new second baseman off of waivers is a lot easier than trying to pick up a new closer.



By embracing this strategy you will manage to start the season with an acceptable placeholder and eventually find someone much better. More importantly, you won’t have to waste an early pick on a questionable player of the Rickie Weeks variety.

bjoak - I agree with you to the extent that are a ton of guys with question marks who may be viewed comparably, so waiting til later rds to grab a 2b is a decent strategy. Personally, I wouldn't wait til the 20th+ rd to grab a scrub with the expectation of upgrading during the season --- there are guys who I think will be very good values outside of the top 10 rounds though.

Very interesting piece. I agree with many of your points and was already planning, if I don't get Utley or one of the other guys I like a little later, doing just what you suggest. I do like several 2b's. While Roberts and Weeks are 2 of them I would never consider taking them in the 3rd round(or the 4th or 5th for that matter). What I will do is watch my list of them and when appropriate grab one or two of them that's left where I feel comfortable taking them. If they all go early I won't chase them. My plan already was doing exactly what you suggest. short stop may go this way also. I think short may be worse than 2b imho.

[ December 05, 2006, 08:03 PM: Message edited by: Liquidhippo ]

i agree. jeff kent is a hall of fame player. now he may not have much to drive in because pierre has stated he wants to be the ist player in the history of baseball whose on base % is lower than his batting average. with a steal rate at about 60% and a walk rate that is .0000000001% his "getting to second rate" ( a new stat) is already lower than his batting average.

I had Kent top 10. I think 290/20 is a decent projection for him. He's likely to miss some games, and as HH said his run prodcn won't be what it could be on another team.



There are a number of younger alternatives that I would rate ahead of him, but the gap in terms of expected dollar value is pretty small. From my #3 to my #10 ranked, I see about a $3 value difference. As a strategy it would definitely pay to wait it out for a 2B.

but the gap in terms of expected dollar value is pretty small. From my #3 to my #10 ranked, I see about a $3 value difference. As a strategy it would definitely pay to wait it out for a 2B.

Bingo!



I had him there as a result of the relative weakness at 2B this year and his relative lack of downside when compared the sophomores on this list. In then end there's not much separating them when all is weighed.

Like the first basemen, 18 of my top 20 made the list. The biggest difference for me is I had Freddy Sanchez much higher than the list and Ian Kinsler lower. No big reason other than what others have already observed. After Utley you can make a case, pro or con, on the next 15 or 18 2B eligable players to be in just about any spot.



One guy who was on my list but did not make this cut is DeRosa. I know he was handed a starting job in 2004 and could not cut it, but I think he is in a real good position to succeed this year especially if the Cubbies bat him out of the two hole.

I think DeRosa will bat 2nd and will be just fine. Not much speed though and that's why Sanchez sinks too I think. I like a guy to have power or speed or some of both. These 2 have very little of either. Having said that, I think they will hit for decent average score some runs and Sanchez knocks some it too if he gets to bat 3rd again.

what do you vets think about when projecting a guy from the minors to the majors? i looked at hermida- he seemed to be really be hyped last year- big bust. he was hurt some- but not all year. he is young- but so are many guys. his speed didn't even transfer. i noticed a few things 1) he only played double- do you look at that? some guys just skip aaa- but i would think a great tripple a year for a hitter would be a bigger indication. 2) what about park factor- he played in carolina- florida is tuff. my experience in nl. only is- speed tranfers better than power early because of shorter fences in minors. thoughts?

sorry wrong thread

I pretty much go along with all you said. I won't risk a high pick with a rookie. I am willing to take a chance if they drop far enough. I do take their long term minors record into account, as well as where they played. As you point out the Florida state league is a pitchers league. Others are hitters leagues and some vary ballpark to ballpark. I like to see a strong consistent track record. If there was a stumble why? Was he hurt? I'll take in as many factors as possible, even then sometimes it just doesn't work out. That's why I won't risk an early pick on one no matter how good he looks. hermida was taken way too early last year. He may still turn out well. With some guys though you just never know. Not sure why he didn't steal more. Same thing with Murton who I did have although taken way later. Murton only stole 5 I think. I figured him for 15 to 20 based on minors and brief major look in 2005. You never know untill they face major league compitition. Even then I'm convinced Vernon Wells was capable of stealing more sooner. He was held back by his non run no matter what manager. Another factor.

All this strengthens my case for Utley being a top 5 pick and a potentially better play than Soriano at the outfield spot, but I digress.



I agree with most here.



I still think Kent can very easily be a 25 homer 100 rbi guy this year, really not a gamble at all as you can get him in the 7th or 8th round and I believe he'll outproduce just about every 2nd baseman out there, other than Utley. He is so consistent from year to year, he has one blip and everybody takes him down a couple notches. I think he has atleast 1 more good year in him.



If you don't get one of those two, I would wait as long as I had to to pick a 2nd baseman, 15th to 23rd round sounds about right.