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To win a NFBC league. What percentage would you estimate is skill ( preparation, effective drafting, FA, and roster management) and what percentage is luck? I'm saying 65% skill and 35% luck. Just to win a league in the main event. Not the overall championship or the other leagues.

I do agree there is some luck involved, but I think the 35% is a little bit high.



As for the luck, there is more to it than most people drafting will admit. Look at a couple examples from last year. 2B Uggla was drafted on average in the 25th round. He definitely outperformed his draft position. Another player to look at is CL Saito. He was grabbed by free agent dollars later in the season.



I know there is more to getting these players than just luck. You have to know who Dan Uggla is...know that he will probably be the 2B for the Marlins, especially after Pokey Reese leaves camp. But who many Uggla owners can honestly say they passed on 2B and waited to grab Uggla late because of his potential? Had a 2B like Kent or Iguchi been available at a decent round, Uggla may have gone to another owner as some may have felt they had no need for Uggla.



There is a bit of luck involved, but the owners who will do great are those who prepare and are able to recognize which players have the best chance to "breakout" and provide the best value from their draft spots.



I can't honestly put a percentage on it. I would guess it's somewhat less than 35%...maybe around 15% somewhere...



As for the spirit of the post, I would answer this way...if an owner is able to target 5 players for late in the draft, say for example last year, it was Dan Uggla (25), Joel Guzman (27), Gary Matthews Jr (24), M. Cuddyer (26), and JJ Putz (28). Number in parenthesis is average round drafted in.



Looking at these 5 players...all which had some value going into the season but none that were looked at as going to carry their team to a title. 4 of the 5 would have been outstanding picks. Putz in the 28th round allowed owners to avoid a round of "the closer run," say in round 9 and grab a player like Justin Morneau when others were grabbing closers like Chris Ray and Todd Jones.



Career years by Cuddyer and Matthews were also very beneficial for owners. Guzman did not live up to "sleeper" status.



To end my post, I will say luck helped several owners who may have stumbled upon these owners, while I have to admit for myself, I heard some owners hype up Cuddyer, which I thought was an absolute waste. Some luck, but also some preparation involved...



Very interesting topic...I'm sure several owners would have different opinions, but I do think that the biggest part of "luck" would unfold earlier in the draft when owners grab players, filling needs. I would think owners with Utley or Soriano wre less likely to take a chance on Uggla, but may have took a late round flyer on Guzman if they had a SS (where Guzman's eligibility was) like Vizquel.

I don't know what % is luck. Probably around the 35% you mentioned. I would say though that to win this you have to put yourself in position to be lucky. You have to lay a solid foundation, then more than get lucky you need to avoid bad luck like what happened to the owner that drafted D. Lee. I won my league and got lucky because the guy that finished second was unlucky enough to have taken D. Lee in the first round. He had a great team and almost over came his bad luck. Everybody had injuries. It's part of the game. Very hard to overcome an abnormally high amount of them or devastating ones.

As for Uggla and some others. I had Uggla on 2 of my teams. I thought he was a good pick down there. Nobody knew what he would do. He was the starter and his minor league stats looked decent. No gaurentee. That's why he falls down there and rightfully so. Had Cuddyer on 2 teams also. Was foolish enough to drop him before he secured his starting spot and really started to produce on 1 of those teams. Fortunately kept him on the other. Again he was risky. A good risk past round 23. Foolish to take him higher cause you just didn't know what if anything he would do.

10% luck

20% skill

15% concentrated power of will

5% pleasure

50% pain



100% reason to remember my signature

ballfour. i think you have some good %'s there. good job

My personal theory is bad luck can make you lose a league like the case Vander mentioned. Good luck can get you top 5 in a league but you will earn the victory to finish top 3.