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If you go to any of the overall standings pages for our national contests, you'll notice a slight addition today. We have this in our NFFC overall standings, so we thought it might be fun to look at in baseball as well. Now when you go to Overall Standings you'll see the draft position for every team, another data point of interest.

Are winning teams coming from the top of the draft order, the bottom of the draft order or the middle of the draft order? Now you can see for yourself. Do draft spots matter in baseball? Now you can see for yourself. Are some guys winning no matter what draft spot they get? Now you can see for yourself.

It's just a small addition to the overall standings, but I like as much information as possible and this is good additional information. Enjoy and congrats to all of the teams currently near the top of these national contests.

Thank you. I like extra data points. I neeeeed extra data points.....especially so that I can blame my failure(s) on my shitty draft position. Or injuries. Anthying but my own inadequacies. So...Thank You!

COZ

COZ wrote:Thank you. I like extra data points. I neeeeed extra data points.....especially so that I can blame my failure(s) on my shitty draft position. Or injuries. Anthying but my own inadequacies. So...Thank You!

COZ

1 drafter in top five currently that drafted 8/9-15 or the second half of the order. Of course, draft pick in baseball has nothing to do with anything. Pfffttttttt. It matters...believe it!

I know this year I really wanted one of the first seven picks. I agree that all else equal, it usually is preferable to draft at or near the top, and that it can be an advantage in the early rounds.

That being said, however, I think the draft slot can be overrated, and it makes little difference past the very early rounds. Looking at the overall Main Event standings, I see 13 out of the top 30 teams drafted eighth or lower. You can win (or lose) from any draft slot.

Mike

No offense meant but this has to be the most meaningless addition to the site. There is little correlation to draft slot and success in baseball in a 30 round / 450 player draft in my opinion. Even in the case of a clear number one pick like Trout, that player alone has only so much affect on a team. It is all about the picks through the entirety of the draft and team construction. You could make an argument in football perhaps but I surely don't see it in baseball. Give me Jupinka or Lindy or Schroeder with least desired spot over nearly everyone else with the most desired spot. Would most teams rather have picks 1,30, 31 over the other combos? Probably. Does getting such dictate success? I'm sure you can look at the data and say "oh look at team joe blow, he is in the top 5 and he had first pick" and draw some sort of conclusion that having that pick made his success. I'm thinking that the success came from the later picks and having the first pick was a very minor contributing factor.

JohnP wrote:No offense meant but this has to be the most meaningless addition to the site. There is little correlation to draft slot and success in baseball in a 30 round / 450 player draft in my opinion. Even in the case of a clear number one pick like Trout, that player alone has only so much affect on a team. It is all about the picks through the entirety of the draft and team construction. You could make an argument in football perhaps but I surely don't see it in baseball. Give me Jupinka or Lindy or Schroeder with least desired spot over nearly everyone else with the most desired spot. Would most teams rather have picks 1,30, 31 over the other combos? Probably. Does getting such dictate success? I'm sure you can look at the data and say "oh look at team joe blow, he is in the top 5 and he had first pick" and draw some sort of conclusion that having that pick made his success. I'm thinking that the success came from the later picks and having the first pick was a very minor contributing factor.

Agree with this 100%. Truth be told, as long as your early-round player meets his statistical projection, it almost doesn't matter where you pick. The leagues and overall championships are primarily won via free agency and mid-/late draft picks.

If you look at the teams at the top of the NFBC standings, many have the same players:

Dallas Keuchel
Russell Martin
Jake Arrieta
Carlos Martinez
Andrew Miller
Matt Harvey
Jacob deGrom
Danny Salazar

These were all players taken anywhere from Round 4 to Round 15. Anyone could have had any or all of these players -- without "reaching" -- regardless of draft slot.

It's only halfway through....we'll see at the end of the year who ended up where and where they drafted. We all have opinions. It doesn't make any of us right about them. Case closed!

The thing is obviously won with great depth and great managing but lets not kid ourselves. It is better to have the first pick. That is why some want to have bidding on it out of the budget. If it didn't matter, that pick wouldn't go for so much in the leagues that have that.

Average batting/pitching/total points by draft position in the main event:


1 1,308.90 1,147.28 2,456.18
2 1,139.58 1,110.00 2,249.58
3 1,101.22 1,138.57 2,239.78
4 1,284.88 1,017.80 2,302.68
5 1,231.77 1,120.55 2,352.32
6 1,056.08 1,103.97 2,160.05
7 1,073.02 1,147.68 2,220.70
8 1,063.78 1,146.92 2,210.70
9 1,216.42 1,115.02 2,331.43
10 1,099.18 1,197.58 2,296.77
11 1,032.88 1,107.55 2,140.43
12 1,182.82 1,146.08 2,328.90
13 949.03 1,190.10 2,139.13
14 1,189.45 1,051.55 2,241.00
15 983.48 1,171.85 2,155.33

Interesting that there is no real advantage to pitching points by draft position.

Cocktails and Dreams wrote:The thing is obviously won with great depth and great managing but lets not kid ourselves. It is better to have the first pick. That is why some want to have bidding on it out of the budget. If it didn't matter, that pick wouldn't go for so much in the leagues that have that.

The stats certainly seem to back this up.

mattjb wrote:Average batting/pitching/total points by draft position in the main event:


1 1,308.90 1,147.28 2,456.18
2 1,139.58 1,110.00 2,249.58
3 1,101.22 1,138.57 2,239.78
4 1,284.88 1,017.80 2,302.68
5 1,231.77 1,120.55 2,352.32
6 1,056.08 1,103.97 2,160.05
7 1,073.02 1,147.68 2,220.70
8 1,063.78 1,146.92 2,210.70
9 1,216.42 1,115.02 2,331.43
10 1,099.18 1,197.58 2,296.77
11 1,032.88 1,107.55 2,140.43
12 1,182.82 1,146.08 2,328.90
13 949.03 1,190.10 2,139.13
14 1,189.45 1,051.55 2,241.00
15 983.48 1,171.85 2,155.33

This is why we add a column of data like this, so that folks like Matt who knows how to use Excel can give us even more data. Nice job Matt. Very interesting numbers for sure. Great job.

mattjb wrote:

Cocktails and Dreams wrote:The thing is obviously won with great depth and great managing but lets not kid ourselves. It is better to have the first pick. That is why some want to have bidding on it out of the budget. If it didn't matter, that pick wouldn't go for so much in the leagues that have that.

The stats certainly seem to back this up.

Thanks for showing us the numbers. It is not all that surprising. It is an obvious advantage to get Trout in this years player pool. Obviously you have to do a great job with the rest of your team like Glenn in the main and Scott in the primetime have done thus far. But is a nice advantage having a clear cut first round choice. The only person that had that this year is the person picking first.

Hi,
Draft position becomes very important when a) there is a clear cut individual (or small group) stats leader and b) demonstrates this skill repeatedly over several years. If goldschmidt and trout start doing back to back 40 homer / 20 to 30 sb with great avg you are going to see a ton of people go nuts for bidding for draft position and rightly so. This is why I prefer the auction format. It is inherently the most fair way to draft

Chris

Hate that idea personally. Obviously, will no longer play the big leagues, but I would have fought hard against it if I were. Free agent money is for free agents. I can handle the luck of the KDS draw. That is why we have KDS.