NFBC Message Boards

Starting today and continuing each and every Monday, I will be posting an essay in an effort to help Greg in his crusade to beef up the content and traffic on these forums. Don't worry, he signed off on the idea. I address more possible questions and concerns in this initial offering, entitled "Whither an Expert".

_________________________________________________



Hello everyone. My name is Todd Zola and I am a Fantasy Baseball Writer and Analyst for www.FantasyBaseball.com, formerly www.Mastersball.com. Some of you may know me as the portly gentleman with a Diet Mountain Dew IV drip, buried behind his laptop as I am also a three year NFBC and NFFC veteran who likely holds the unenviable distinction of having donated more money to the Krause Publications coiffures than just about anyone. So what I am doing here now? A few months ago, Head Poobah Greg Ambrosius expressed a desire to increase traffic and exposure to the NFBC by increasing the quantity and quality of content in this forum. To that end, he formed a content panel comprised of highly successful NFBC participants. Based on those requirements, I, um, was, well ... not eligible. But that never stopped me before, so I picked up the phone and talked to Greg, and he agreed to give me some space for a weekly essay. So here I am.



I figure some of you are still confused as to what this is all about and have some questions, so why don’t we clear the air and I will address your concerns. Who’s first? OK, you over there with the John Deere t-shirt, what’s your question please?



You haven’t really won anything in the NFBC or NFFC, what makes you qualified to have your own column?



Good question. While I have cashed in a couple of NFBC auctions, I have admittedly struggled in the main event and satellite leagues. But quite frankly, the purpose of this column is not “How to Win the NFBC”, far from it. I am a long time writer and hope to use that experience to spark some compelling discourse, not necessarily focusing strictly upon the NFBC. Sure, I’ll chime in on occasion with some specific NFBC commentary, but the primary objective will be to spur some general fantasy baseball discussion. And for that, I am qualified. If anyone has any doubts, please feel free to Google me. Go ahead -- you don’t even have to buy me dinner first.



Next question? OK, you in the back with the Brett Favre jersey, bushy moustache, holding a Miller Genuine Draft, with that ridiculous yellow, triangular hat on your head, what’s your question?



The Bears suck.



Why thank you for your thoughtful and relevant contribution. Where’s Tom? Has anyone seen Tom Kessenich? He promised me he would screen these questions. OK, who’s next and can we please keep it on topic? How about you with the University of Florida Southern sweatshirt? What do you have for me?



Why have you done so poorly in the NFBC? Aren’t you a “so-called” expert or something?



Ouch. But you obviously have a point. I’ll take the second question first, the one about being a “so-called” expert.



There was a time, not all that long ago, seeing or hearing that phrase really pissed me off. I’m old school. I never asked to be called an expert. I just did my thing and stuff happened. Along the way, some people decided I had a certain level of expertise. And because I not so humbly felt I earned the distinction, it really irked me when someone would denigrate the honor by prefacing the word expert with the phrase “so-called”.



But recently I realized something, something I am not particularly enamored about, but something I am not so naïve to understand its necessity. In today’s landscape, the term “so-called” expert is actually quite apropos. I may not like it, but it’s right more than it’s wrong.



What IS a fantasy baseball expert anyway? I’m not sure I can answer that as easily as how I can answer what a fantasy baseball expert IS NOT.



A fantasy baseball expert is not someone who went to Fantasy Baseball University, took expert level courses and graduated with an Expert Degree. A fantasy baseball expert is not someone who deems themselves masterful, talented, a guru or when it comes to roto, they’re the man. A fantasy baseball expert is not someone who can set up a blog or basic web page and suddenly is an authority or thinks we want their help. Just because you are creative, or worldly, or timely, you are not necessarily an expert. Just because your workplace is not an office, but a headquarters, you are not automatically a fantasy baseball expert. Even if you are paid to talk or write about the subject, you are not always an expert. Although you play in a league with expert or a synonym like tout in the title, you are not by definition an expert. In short, YOU ARE NOT AN EXPERT JUST BECAUSE YOU SAY YOU ARE .



To paraphrase what the sage Peter Kreutzer once said, we are not experts but disseminators of information. That’s really it folks, that sums it up best. It’s just that when you want to reference one of us, it’s a whole lot easier to use “so called expert” than “disseminator of information.”



So then, what IS a fantasy baseball expert? By definition, in general, an expert is a person who has special skill or knowledge in some particular field. By that definition, it seems to me the NFBC is replete with experts. And honestly, that is true, it really is. But it would be rather weak of me to take the soapbox stand that I have solely as a means to kiss up to my NFBC brethren and not comment specifically with respect to the industry.



I can think of two viable definitions of an industry expert. The first is a person who has earned the respect of his peers within the fantasy community. If you took me up on my offer to Google me, you might see what I mean. The second is someone who has earned respect in the court of public opinion. That’s you, the reader and how you feel about the person that disseminated the information. That’s what really counts, has the person done something to earn your trust, hence respect so that you consider them a viable and unique source of fantasy information? And if they have, can you do me a favor? When you refer to them, please lose the “so-called” preface. Save that for those pretenders truly deserving. And please don’t ask who truly deserves as that is completely subjective so it doesn’t matter what I think. Just try to base your opinion on more than “ because I say I am a fantasy expert .”



In case you have not figured it out by now, the whole initial question and answer bit was a gimmick from which I could segue into this little diatribe. While I will occasionally present an essay better suited for the opinion/editorial section of your Sunday paper, don’t fret, the majority will be more mainstream baseball related. I just had a little something I wanted to get off my chest and decided to do it in this nature.



That said, I did leave a question unanswered, namely why I have not tasted too much success in the NFBC. I’m not ducking the question; I’ll address it next week. But in the meantime, please feel free to comment on today’s topic. I’ll do my best to pop back and reply to any direct questions.



Thanks for reading and good luck to all in your NFBC preparation.

Todd I like you a lot bro- but they may be the longest post I have ever read- with that said forgive me if you covered this.



"Experts or Industry folks" have not typically done well in this event with the exception of Ravitz in 05. Why?



My theory is that in general you all are very risk adverse and to do well in this contest you have to be willing to take a few more calculated risks.



Fair assesment?

Chest -- I can only speak for myself and like I mentioned, my plight in the NFBC is the topic of next week's essay, though some of what is planned will address your question in general terms.



That said, I have personally decided that I need to introduce more risk into my game so yeah, at least in my case I agree with you. In fact, a few of the NFBC participants along with some other fantasy enthusiasts are just about done with our own little private NFBC style league. To go along with my new drafting style, I named the team "Risky Business". We'll see how it goes.



As for the length of the post, it's an essay -- it's supposed to be a little longer than the generic post. It's really more like a typical web site article posted on a message forum. Well, hopefully not typical. If I ever become typical it's time to start collecting stamps and give this up.



And for the record, Cory Schwartz of mlb.com fared quite well this past season, his Schwartzstops finishing sixth overall.



[ January 15, 2007, 11:26 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

My theory is that in general you all are very risk adverse and to do well in this contest you have to be willing to take a few more calculated risks.

Volatile players are an undervalued class in my opinion. I'm not giving anyone a pass, but I think 'experts' have the disadvantage of having all of their opinions dissiminated. If Shandler played in this, he'd be playing against seven of himself in every draft. Can't expect him to do well that way.

todd and others - who finishes higher in the main event this year...me or you?



[ January 15, 2007, 01:15 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

I think the Shandler is God complex is somewhat overrated in this contest.



I know I use him for 2 things 1) he thinks and approaches things differently than I do so I use him as a devils advocate 2) I use him as a tie breaker when I cannot decide between 2 players.



If you are using him or anyone source in particular for 80-90% of your research you are in trouble. I just do not think many people do that- maybe wishful thinking on my behalf.

Thanks Todd for taking your time for writing something every Monday for the NFBC. I have a lot of respect for you and I enjoy reading your material more than any other fantasy expert out there. I really should sign up and be a member of Masterball.com. I did try to be a Platnium member. The website told me if I became a Platnium member I would get the 2005 player projections. I want the 2007 stuff. I'm sure you guys just haven't updated the website. I'm looking forward to competing against you in the ultimate auction and I also appreciate you playing in the NFBC. It shows you have a lot of passion for fantasy baseball.



One question, who's going to lead off for Boston this year, Youkilis or Lugo?



Thanks,

Jim

Jim -- thanks for the kind words, like I just do my thing and what happens, happens. We are just about transitioning from the old Mastersball platform to the new FantasyBaseball.com site -- news about signups should be forthcoming.



As to Lugo/Youkilis, all I can say for sure is Lugo will be hitting 1 or 2. I attended a recent charity event at which Theo Epstein, Terry Francona, Bill James, Jed Hoyer, JP Riccardi and Peter Gammons fielded questions from the audience. Theo and Terry made it quite clear Lugo was brought in for his offense and will hit at the top of the order. They did not really say if that meant leadoff. I'd allow for the opportunity that Coco Crisp works his way back up top, so as of now, assume Lugo hits leadoff or second and either Youkilis or Crisp fills in the other spot.



The brass was also pretty adament that the intention is for Papelbon to be in the rotation.

Todd, Some questions.



1. Is it true that this year you have selected Santana with the first pick of a draft (non NFBC), while bypassing Santana with the 9th pick of the Shawn Childs League and picking Cabrera? If so, was it the different leagues or rules behind the thought process?



2. I think Shandler is overused, but it seems a lot of Managers have faith in him. How much, if any, of a factor are other writers or "so called experts" when you start preparation for your draft lists?



3. With you being somewhat of a celebrity among fantasy circles,If you win the $100,000 which charity will be landing that donation?



Thanks, Dan

3. With you being somewhat of a celebrity among fantasy circles,If you win the $100,000 which charity will be landing that donation?

I'm guessing it will go to the fantasybaseball.com let's-advertise-the-hell-out-of-the-fact-that-one-of-our-guys-won-the-$100,000-fund.

1. I picked Johan at 1.11 in the Creative Sports mock draft for the Fantasy Baseball Guide magazine. In my comments, I said I would consider him as early as 4th. Without breaking down the fourth wall too much, my notes for that draft and analysis had some cranberry sauce and pumpkin pie stains on them. Since that draft, I have refined my thought process with respect to Johan. I honestly believe he is the best player in all of fantasy baseball, but strategically, since he is a pitcher, I'm not sure yet at exactly what point I would draft him. We talked about this on these forums, perhaps search Santana if you are interested in those comments.



I guess I do know that as of mid-Jan, if Miguel Cabrera is on the board, I would opt for him over Santana.



2. I don't think Ron is overused at all -- if anything he is misused. The beauty about Ron's work is he breaks it down to root skills and has his beliefs how those skills will translate into performance. When looking at Ron's work, or anyone's for that matter, I pay MUCH MORE attention to the method than the results. There is way too much noise in just looking at the end result of the typical roto stats. I learn the method and judge how much I trust the application, I don't blindly follow his (or anyone's) interpretation of the data. The point being if you do not happen to agree with Ron's methods, you can at least thank him for doing the number crunching, presenting stats in the form of skills. Then you translate the skills how you wish.



My personal evaluation process meshes aspects of several different processes, flavored with my own beliefs.



3. Some of the winnings would go to the TZiddy Foundation for getting my ass out of debt. But I am sure I will save a little for some local charity events where you can bid on baseball related items, like throwing out the first pitch at Fenway Park. So the Jimmy Fund and Theo Epstein's Foundation to be Named Later will benefit as well.

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I think the Shandler is God complex is somewhat overrated in this contest. Hmmm...I believe it was Brian Oldenski (sorry if I misspelled your name, Brian) who gave the Shandler team credit for his '05 win, so I am not sure about the overrated part.



I admit I do use Baseball HQ and the Forecaster as my primary research tool, but like most of the experts (there is that word again...) or those who earn at least a significant part of their living writing and producing material for the reading and redundant over analysis of fantasy topics or projections within the fantasy sports community, Shandler and team do recommend getting input from as many sources as your time and tastes allow.



So thanks to Todd, and Greg, and Ron, and Bill James all who provide us with their with their work product. You may have to pay for some of it, but it is still cheap and the alternative is to listen to your wife describe what happened last week on "The View"...



[ January 15, 2007, 02:59 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Ha-ha, I was going to make a joke about Shandler's boy, Edward Kings after the Chest quote but decided it would be in poor taste.

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Where’s Tom? Has anyone seen Tom Kessenich? I'm still alive and well. Just finishing up another fantasy magazine. Three down, one more to go.

Z, where is your preferred draft slot? Why?

PT -- not sure, but this may actually be a topic for an upcoming piece, but since you asked, if I had to do the KDS now, I would go something like 1,9,8,7,6,10,11,12,13,14,15,5,4,3,2.



The reasoning being Pujols is still Pujols and I'll take my chances with him as my anchor. After that, it is strictly a matter of how the pool plays out. I am pretty likely to get one of the top-3 3B in round 1 and a decent MI in round 2, giving me a decent balance of power and speed from which to build.



Others like the 3B pool this season. I don't. I like the top-5, but after that I see it as a risk every possible pick. I would much prefer trawling in the 1B waters, as THAT is where I see the value corner picks.

Hey Todd, here's a question I am curious about. How do you approach the FAAB each weekend during the season. Is there any specific way you choose to approach it? Do you look through the entire list each week or keep a running tally? How many hours do you allocate to making your weekly bids? One of the key reasons I would not play in more than one event is the time required to scour through each different leagues free agency lists every week!!!!! How do you handle it? Thanks

Todd -- great stuff thus far. The content panel hasn't provided anything worth reading yet. Greg shouldn't award them a dime. But you deserve a raise!



Edwards Kings -- you spelled my name correctly. How could you forget it?



And BaseballHQ.com is not overrated. Visit Shandler Enterprises website and subscribe today!

One of the hidden rules of this contest is you don't have to start a guy you FAAB -- many leagues require you activate a guy you acquire at least that first week. As such, one of my primary objectives is to be a week or two ahead of the curve and FAAB guys on the come for cheap. So what if he doesn't work out, he cost me $4 or whatever. On the other hand, it is a very satisfying feeling when you are a step ahead of your league, already owning the hot commodity all the other leagues are bidding top-dollar on.



Other than that, I let my team dictate my aggressiveness. In the main event, I will probably overbid early in the year to secure someone I perceive as a difference maker. A couple years ago, I was called out for placing by far the highest bid on John Patterson in any league, something like $322 when he went for double digits in most leagues. My response to the call-out at the time was I don't see it as my mistake that I overbid, I see it as a mistake that my 14 leaguemates did not bid 323.



I won't necessarily wait until I have a need to FAAB a player I feel will put up contributing numbers.



As for the amount of time, as will be discussed in next week's piece, I play in more leagues than the average fantasy enthusiast. But really, the way the scoring site is set up, it does not take very long to review what is available so I generally find the time. It may just be I have a better handle on the playing field than others, due to my responibilities at fantasybaseball.com, so the time it takes is not a big deal. I find the time it takes to manage in a TRADE league to be MUCH MUCH more demanding.



That said, what sometimes happens is I plan on doing my due diligence but something out of control happens at my work and I am unable to do the research. I learned early on to cover an injury with a mid-week bid just in case something comes up on FAAB-day.



Another thing I do is note which owners are the aggressive bidders so if they have a need to fill that week, I know to bid appropriately.



I might see what a similar player went for in a previous week.

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Todd I like you a lot bro- but they may be the longest post I have ever read- with that said forgive me if you covered this.



"Experts or Industry folks" have not typically done well in this event with the exception of Ravitz in 05. Why?



My theory is that in general you all are very risk adverse and to do well in this contest you have to be willing to take a few more calculated risks.



Fair assesment? Chest, I think to say this is a fair assesment is right on.



And I back that up by saying that Nate, and I've told him this several times, takes more risks with his predictions than just about any writer out there. He doesn't take the risks just to be different, he takes them because he's believes they are right. He wasn't afraid to tell all D.Wright would have a great rookie year, when most of the rest post conservative numbers.



It doesn't surprise me when he finishes 5th, or a 200th, because he's taking the risks to win.

Todd, I just did some of my own projections and agree with you that Santana is the best fantasy player out there. Actually, I have him just BARELY behind Soriano and Reyes. So its pretty much a 3 way race in my mind.



So really I wouldnt mind pick 1-3 but I think Santana will likely last til #4 in most drafts. When I was doing my projections I actually had the #4 pick being the most valuable for the first 2 rounds.



My dilemma is how low I could go in the 1st round and still have say a 75% chance to get Santana who I think will be undervalued. Then I would get a higher wrap around pick and BAM I am on way.



How far would you gamble with Santana's pick slot?

todd - any early feeling on the dodgers batting order entering the season?

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Todd I like you a lot bro- but they may be the longest post I have ever read- with that said forgive me if you covered this.



"Experts or Industry folks" have not typically done well in this event with the exception of Ravitz in 05. Why?



My theory is that in general you all are very risk adverse and to do well in this contest you have to be willing to take a few more calculated risks.



Fair assesment? Chest, I think to say this is a fair assesment is right on.



And I back that up by saying that Nate, and I've told him this several times, takes more risks with his predictions than just about any writer out there. He doesn't take the risks just to be different, he takes them because he's believes they are right. He wasn't afraid to tell all D.Wright would have a great rookie year, when most of the rest post conservative numbers.



It doesn't surprise me when he finishes 5th, or a 200th, because he's taking the risks to win. [/QUOTE]It is rare that I disagree with Chest, but I do on this one point at least. In my mind, Shandler (and when I say Shandler, I mean Ron, all of his team, writers, analysts, guests contributors) is all about taking risk. This is Todd's string so I do not know if he will agree here, but most anyone can pick Pujols and Santana. The edge is getting as much information as you can tolerate and taking your risks using something more than "gut feel".



What Baseball HQ provides me is solid empirical data which indicates which player has the best chance of improving (or holding) their stats because the underlying skill set is there. That is taking risks, but taking risks where it is warranted because the skill set supports the projections (and hopefully results). It is not fool proof. It is up to the individual owner to make use of the information (or misuse of the info which may be the case on my part).



I haven't done much in the NFBC yet, but I really like my chances as Shandler can give me the edge. Two or three players each year I have gotten (some late) who did well for me because of the information provided. Last year it was Youk (23rd round), Estrada (second catcher 17th round), Borowski (second closer), Carlos Lee (3rd round, but Shandler had him up there with potential points to be at least an early second if not first rounder), and Otsuka (FAAB cheap a week before he was named closer).



Sorry Todd. I guess I turned this post into a commercial for one of your peers.

Originally posted by Moneymaker:

Todd -- great stuff thus far. The content panel hasn't provided anything worth reading yet. Greg shouldn't award them a dime. But you deserve a raise!



Edwards Kings -- you spelled my name correctly. How could you forget it?As a member of the content panel, I sincerely ( :rolleyes: ) apologize for any disappointments. Not all of us can be ToddZ, you know.



See you in Tampa, Brian!

Josh -- you may want to do a search on Santana as we recently had an interesting thread about his ranking. But in short, the reason I say far and away the best fantasy player is most have him ranked top-5 using the conventional 65-70% hitting versus 30-35% pitching split when it comes to budget allocation. This is the way most everyone compares hitters to pitchers. Using a standard dollar value one would use for an auction, Santana would be top-5. But if you "properly" give 50% of the budget to pitching, his value zooms past Pujols, Reyes, Soriano et al.



As for where I would draft him, what it is going to come down to for me is not so much a particular draft spot but exactly who is on the board. Off the top of my head, I know I would take in no particular order, Pujols, Reyes, Crawford, Rodriguez, Cabrera, Wright and Utley. I need to do some more mocks and satellites before I decide upon Soriano and Guerrero (positional considerations more than value). I would not take Howard or Ortiz before Johan, so if you need me to put a number to it, it looks like I have 8, maybe 9 guys I would take first with another couple that others would likely take, so that puts him at about 11 or 12.