30th Edition Of The Baseball Forecaster Is Out
Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:39 am
Congrats to Ron Shandler, Ray Murphy, Brent Hershey and all the guys at BaseballHQ.com and USA Today for putting out another edition of the Baseball Forecaster. It warmed my heart during this cold December day to see the Forecaster in the mail yesterday. Now let's get busy.
But this isn't just any old Forecaster. This is the 30th Anniversary Edition, which says a lot. Ron has a very informative, poignant intro to the book this year with a look back at when he came up with the idea of this project on Thanksgiving of 1985. Well done Ron. As he writes, it was a tough time in his life as he was unemployed, in between jobs and newly married. He was tired of working in Corporate America and decided to write a fantasy baseball book.
Good for him.
Good for all of us.
It's a well written piece by someone who I know reminisces about the start of this crazy industry more these days. And he should. He has more time on his hands and he was a big part of how we grew in the analytics of baseball statistics, not just fantasy baseball statistics. He's seen how this industry has grown, how everyone is an "expert" now, how something we never imagined back in 1985 like the Internet could so drastically change our lives. When you've worked in this industry for 30 years and have lived through the changes, it's fun to reminisce at times.
I had a similar AH-HAH moment like Ron did on Thanksgiving in 1985. It was 1988 and after another draft I called my brother and said we should create a fantasy baseball magazine. I was tired of taking The Sporting News annual to the draft and sifting through all of the team reports and creating my own position-by-position Cheat Sheets for a mixed league draft. There had to be an easier way to produce a magazine for people like us. Six months later I saw an ad for a prospective Rotisserie Baseball Magazine being published in Wisconsin and I dove at the chance to be the editor. As luck would have it, I got the job in 1989. We were three years behind Ron's book, but on newsstands everywhere with a circulation of over 150,000 copies of Fantasy Baseball Magazine.
I recommend that you pick up the latest copy of the Baseball Forecaster if you can. For one thing, it's a great read at a time when it's hard to find baseball reading material. Secondly, the projections and player profiles are as good as you can get anywhere. And thirdly, you feel good supporting an iconic treasure.
I just started reading the Forecaster, but here's a few interesting tidbits from Ron's opening article:
* Power-hitters were back in 2015. The 2015 "correction" in Home Runs was the largest single-season spike since 1993. As Ron says "back then it set off a whole new era in power performance. Could we be entering a new cycle?" Last year 64 different hitters smacked at least 20 HRs. This year the Forecaster projects 78 hitters for 20 or more homers.
* Speed is down to its lowest levels in more than 30 years. In 1985, 24 players swiped 30 or more bases. In 2015, only 7 players reached the 30-SB level.
* Power pitchers are on the rise. The number of pitchers who averaged 95+ mph with their fastballs hit a high of 51. That's FIFTY-ONE different pitchers with an average fastball of 95+ mph. Amazing. The year before it was just 38 and in 2008 it was just 20. Power-pitchers are on the rise.
* Closers on the decline. The uncertainty of closers is forcing owners to pay less for them in Rotisserie Baseball. The Forecaster said that the average price last year was less than $15, the lowest since the invention of the game. Heck, back when we played 4x4 Rotisserie Baseball and saves were 25% of your pitching points, it wasn't uncommon for a closer to go for $30 or more. Not anymore. Now owners pay $16-$18 for top closers.
Good job on the intro Ron. And good job on the 30th Edition everyone. My baseball prep jumps into high-gear now.
But this isn't just any old Forecaster. This is the 30th Anniversary Edition, which says a lot. Ron has a very informative, poignant intro to the book this year with a look back at when he came up with the idea of this project on Thanksgiving of 1985. Well done Ron. As he writes, it was a tough time in his life as he was unemployed, in between jobs and newly married. He was tired of working in Corporate America and decided to write a fantasy baseball book.
Good for him.
Good for all of us.
It's a well written piece by someone who I know reminisces about the start of this crazy industry more these days. And he should. He has more time on his hands and he was a big part of how we grew in the analytics of baseball statistics, not just fantasy baseball statistics. He's seen how this industry has grown, how everyone is an "expert" now, how something we never imagined back in 1985 like the Internet could so drastically change our lives. When you've worked in this industry for 30 years and have lived through the changes, it's fun to reminisce at times.
I had a similar AH-HAH moment like Ron did on Thanksgiving in 1985. It was 1988 and after another draft I called my brother and said we should create a fantasy baseball magazine. I was tired of taking The Sporting News annual to the draft and sifting through all of the team reports and creating my own position-by-position Cheat Sheets for a mixed league draft. There had to be an easier way to produce a magazine for people like us. Six months later I saw an ad for a prospective Rotisserie Baseball Magazine being published in Wisconsin and I dove at the chance to be the editor. As luck would have it, I got the job in 1989. We were three years behind Ron's book, but on newsstands everywhere with a circulation of over 150,000 copies of Fantasy Baseball Magazine.
I recommend that you pick up the latest copy of the Baseball Forecaster if you can. For one thing, it's a great read at a time when it's hard to find baseball reading material. Secondly, the projections and player profiles are as good as you can get anywhere. And thirdly, you feel good supporting an iconic treasure.
I just started reading the Forecaster, but here's a few interesting tidbits from Ron's opening article:
* Power-hitters were back in 2015. The 2015 "correction" in Home Runs was the largest single-season spike since 1993. As Ron says "back then it set off a whole new era in power performance. Could we be entering a new cycle?" Last year 64 different hitters smacked at least 20 HRs. This year the Forecaster projects 78 hitters for 20 or more homers.
* Speed is down to its lowest levels in more than 30 years. In 1985, 24 players swiped 30 or more bases. In 2015, only 7 players reached the 30-SB level.
* Power pitchers are on the rise. The number of pitchers who averaged 95+ mph with their fastballs hit a high of 51. That's FIFTY-ONE different pitchers with an average fastball of 95+ mph. Amazing. The year before it was just 38 and in 2008 it was just 20. Power-pitchers are on the rise.
* Closers on the decline. The uncertainty of closers is forcing owners to pay less for them in Rotisserie Baseball. The Forecaster said that the average price last year was less than $15, the lowest since the invention of the game. Heck, back when we played 4x4 Rotisserie Baseball and saves were 25% of your pitching points, it wasn't uncommon for a closer to go for $30 or more. Not anymore. Now owners pay $16-$18 for top closers.
Good job on the intro Ron. And good job on the 30th Edition everyone. My baseball prep jumps into high-gear now.