Drafts Slots vs Overall Finish

[Gekko]

Here is how main event draft slots fared in the overall competition last year. The results are listed from best performing draft slot to worst performing. As you can see, early draft slots had much more success. If all draft slots were created equal, they should be reasonably close to each other.

DraftSlot - Avg Overall Rank
1 - 174
5 - 190
2 - 202
3 -215
10 - 219
4 - 223
9 -224
12 - 228
14 - 230
11 - 231
6 - 235
8 - 241
7 - 250
15 - 251
13 - 269

[SpinningSeams]

Nice work Gekko! Thus far I prefer the draft slots 1, 2, & 3 after a sample size of three DCs.

Scott

[DOUGHBOYS]

What about a league by league basis?

[mdecav]

Last year was a little unique. If you look at previous years, the top picks didn't perform any better.

[Greg Ambrosius]

This is great work Mark and I'm sure it took some time to run the numbers. But I'd love to see the numbers over a 5-year period or even 10 years. We have the draft spots listed in the overalls for the Main for each year, so let's compare 2015 to the previous years. I don't remember the top spots faring better than the other spots in the past, but the only way to find out is to run the numbers.

If anyone can do that for 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011 that would be great. Thanks.

I'm doing 2014 now. Interesting numbers for sure.

[BK METS]

I personally don't believe draft position means a whole lot. I think it is all based upon preference. Once you get beyond the first several rounds, you typically get the players you want, for the most part. I have had the most success at the #15 draft position, through the years. But that is just me and my preference. In the end, I am pretty sure it all evens out or is pretty close.

[Gekko]

some interesting results for players taken in the first 10 rounds of every main event.

Carlos Gomez owners finished an average of 295th overall
Adam Jones owners 291st overall
Josh Donaldson 174th overall
Mike Trout 164th overall

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, I ran the same numbers for 2014 that Mark ran for 2015. I think this data is important because we do want everyone to have hope that they can win from any spot. In 2014, Greg & Dale Morgan won the $125,000 grand prize from the 1st draft spot, while the Top 10 overall consisted of owners drafting from the 6th, 8th, 6th, 5th, 3rd, 11th, 14th, 7th and 15th spots.

Here's a look at the average spot in the overall standings among 420 teams for each draft spot:

No. 1 - 181.5
No. 2 - 173.6
No. 3 - 185.9
No. 4 - 211.8
No. 5 - 232.5
No. 6 - 158.8
No. 7 - 279.6
No. 8 - 228.8
No. 9 - 217.5
No. 10 - 213.6
No. 11 - 235.0
No. 12 - 209.6
No. 13 - 211.7
No. 14 - 210.6
No. 15 - 206.9

It's interesting to note that the best draft spot in 2014 was No. 6 and the lowest scoring draft spot was No. 7. Right next to each other. The top 3 draft spots were the next best, followed by Nos. 15, 12, 14 and 13. This season seems a little more balanced than 2015, unless for some reason you had the 7th spot. No luck there in 2014.

More years need to be calculated. Maybe I can do that.

[Yah Mule]

I was happy with my teams drafting from 15 last year. I think 13-15 will perform very well this year.

[Gekko]

here's 2013 data. once again the top 3 draft slots dominate...

13 - 171.2
2 - 171.6
3 - 187.2
1 - 189.3
12 - 202.7
6 - 208.4
7 - 210.0
5 - 214.5
15 - 219.0
10 - 227.7
14 - 245.7
11 - 249.2
4 - 254.0
8 - 255.9
9 - 263.7

[Gekko]

3 years in a row the top 3 draft slots have finished in the top 4 draft slots. that's what the data says

[Gekko]

I have had the most success at the #15 draft position, through the years.

I assume you will be starting your KDS with 15 as your top preference

[Teufel Hunden]

Here is 2011:

1 169.8
2 220.3
3 200.5
4 194.5
5 261.8
6 189.1
7 182.4
8 242.9
9 204.2
10 203
11 136
12 160.9
13 203.5
14 180.5
15 183.1

Here is average of 2011-2015:

1 192.16
2 198.16
3 200.16
4 220.24
5 220.8
6 209.7
7 218.36
8 235.82
9 230.88
10 207.86
11 214.34
12 199.1
13 208.3
14 214.66
15 209.7

Amazingly the top ranked team from the #1 slot in 2011 was 49th.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It's not the song, it's the singer.....

[Yah Mule]

Here is average of 2011-2015:

1 192.16
2 198.16
3 200.16
4 220.24
5 220.8
6 209.7
7 218.36
8 235.82
9 230.88
10 207.86
11 214.34
12 199.1
13 208.3
14 214.66
15 209.7

Interesting that being smack in the middle @ 8 - where you're theoretically least vulnerable to getting caught short in a position or category run - finished last overall and 7 and 9 performed poorly as well.

The consistent performance of 1-3 has to be tied in large part to the low bust rate of players drafted that high. Extremely reliable players like Trout, Miggy, Goldie, McCutchen and a handful of other proven superstars dominate the top three draft picks from 2011-15 or any given five-year stretch. It's true Kemp and Braun burned some people in that mix, but for the most part, you're dealing with a much lower bust rate than the rest of round one. It certainly doesn't hurt that the guys picking 1-3 generally get to pick the anchor of their pitching staff after only three or four SP are off the board.

[Gekko]

here are the OFFICIAL averages from 2011-2015...

1 - 192.2
2 - 197.7
12 - 200.0
3 - 200.2
10 - 208.3
13 - 208.9
6 - 210.3
15 - 210.7
14 - 215.6
11 - 215.8
7 - 219.3
5 - 219.8
4 - 220.9
9 - 231.4
8 - 235.9

[Greg Ambrosius]

Where's the 2012 rankings? We have two different 2011-15 totals. Something's not right.

[Teufel Hunden]

Where's the 2012 rankings? We have two different 2011-15 totals. Something's not right.

They look pretty close. I would trust Gekko's numbers more if he used own data for all five years. I calculated two years and transferred data from previously calculated on other three. So rounding would come into play.

Would certainly be curious if there is a big difference on 12 team, or other 15 team formats.

[Bjs2025]

Interesting that the 12th spot has done people so well. I wonder why that is. Maybe a common spot for buy low veterans to fall when up and comers are irrationally drafted before them.

[mdecav]

A few issues with the data. One minor, one a little more important.

First, different years had a different number of participants so the straight-up average, while close, is a little skewed. What I did was take the difference from the average of the year, so if you use the 2011 to 2015 dataset, the average number of positions away from the yearly average is the following:

1 +20
2 +14
12 +13
3 +12
10 +4
13 +4
6 +2
15 +2
11 -2
14 -3
7 -6
4 -8
5 -9
9 -19
8 -24

Likely close to Gekko's results. BUT, if you take out 2015 from the data, the numbers look like this:

12 +17
13 +16
3 +12
1 +12
2 +11
15 +9
6 +5
10 +4
11 -1
7 -2
14 -2
4 -11
5 -20
9 -24
8 -26

[Gekko]

Top 20 finishes overall by draft slot from 2011-2015

1 - 10
2 - 10
3 - 10
4 - 2
5 - 8
6 - 10
7 - 7
8 - 7
9 - 4
10 - 3
11 - 6
12 - 5
13 - 7
14 - 3
15 - 8

57 teams from early draft slots 1-7 (61%)
36 teams from late draft slots 9-15 (39%)

[Gekko]

Top 10 finishes by draft slot from 2011-2015...

1 - 3
2 - 2
3 - 5
4 - 2
5 - 2
6 - 5
7 - 3
8 - 5
9 - 4
10 - 1
11 - 5
12 - 4
13 - 3
14 - 2
15 - 4

22 teams from early draft slots 1-7 (49%)
23 teams from late draft slots 9-15 (51%)

[Gekko]

Top 5 finishes by draft slot for 2011-2015...

1 - 2
2 - 2
3 - 1
4 - 2
5 - 2
6 - 4
7 - 1
8 - 4
9 - 1
10 - 0
11 - 2
12 - 1
13 - 1
14 - 1
15 - 1

14 teams from early draft slots 1-7 (67%)
7 teams from late draft slots 9-15 (33%)

[Gekko]

Top 3 finishes by draft slot from 2011 - 2015...

1 - 2
2 - 1
3 - 1
4 - 1
5 - 1
6 - 2
7 - 1
8 - 3
9 - 0
10 - 0
11 - 2
12 - 0
13 - 0
14 - 1
15 - 0

9 teams from early draft slots 1-7 (75%)
3 teams from late draft slots 9-15 (25%)

[BK METS]

I have had the most success at the #15 draft position, through the years.

I assume you will be starting your KDS with 15 as your top preference

My #1 KDS preference for all main even leagues and most remaining leagues (not auction) for the past 4 years have been #15. You can ask Tom to verify and nearly everyone who drafts with me in New York can verify that I always draft from the #15 position, unless someone else in the league chooses 15, and then i typically get 14 or another position. I won 2 main event titles in 2014 from the #15 draft position.

Although very interesting to look at, your data doesnt prove anything. Baseball is a marathon. Everyone drafts differently and baseball is nothing about draft position and more about the entire draft entity, team management, and FAAB.