Ron Shandler not the best salesman

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Sun Mar 28, 2004 5:03 pm

Ron Shandler's recent writing on his web site was a little tough on many of us drafters. It seems we didn't measure up to what he expects from an owner. Of course his book was included for all at the drafts. Guess he doesn't like us but our money is just fine. Ron, not the best way to make a sell. Of course Ron didn't draft himself. He learned that lesson in Diamond Challenge a couple of years when he tried that and got taken to the shed. No he picks and choices his spots now.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Sun Mar 28, 2004 5:39 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Ron Shandler's recent writing on his web site was a little tough on many of us drafters. It seems we didn't measure up to what he expects from an owner. Of course his book was included for all at the drafts. Guess he doesn't like us but our money is just fine. Ron, not the best way to make a sell. Of course Ron didn't draft himself. He learned that lesson in Diamond Challenge a couple of years when he tried that and got taken to the shed. No he picks and choices his spots now. I didn't see the writing - could someone post it here?

Dave

mystydog · Post by **mystydog** » Sun Mar 28, 2004 9:40 pm

You cant read the article unless you subscribe to his site....

No thanks...lol

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 12:34 am

Well it wasn't too flaterring but it's probably close to the truth. I think second time around everyone will be better prepared.

[ April 01, 2004, 04:58 PM: Message edited by: Leaderboard Sports ]

seefer · Post by **seefer** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 12:54 am

My guess is that he is down playing the drafts to get more people involved next year.

If I wasn't involved this year and I read his column I would be first in line next year thinking I'd have an "easier" shot at the $100K.

I guess if he really does feel this way, he should pony up his own $1250 to take all our money.

kgrady · Post by **kgrady** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 2:12 am

Ron Shandler was the draft facilitator for NYC League #2, which so happens to be the league in which I am in. Regarding his comments ... while they can be construed as harsh and/or arrogant, for the most part I would agree with them. There were some teams, one in particular, which were disorganized and frequently selecting players who were already drafted. There was an owner who selected all of his outfielders early in the draft. I have not yet traced through the draft round by round. although I plan to do so this week. There were some curious picks, no doubt about it.

I was very well-prepared for this draft. I spent considerable time assembling speadsheets, ranking players by position and listing multi-postional eligibility. As Shandler noted, the pace of the draft was very swift. It was a challenge to keep up, in part because it was a little tough to hear the selections and see the draft board. When my turn came up, I intentionally took my time, often getting to the 30 seconds left countdown. It was the one time during the proceedings that I could control the clock and I used that time to make sure I got the last few drafted players' names properly crossed off of my lists. I would occasionally look up a player, just to see a projection or his recent steals totals, but for the most part I knew what to expect of each player that I was contemplating drafting.

Kevin

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 2:14 am

I find it pretty amazing, given what I've heard of Shandler and his 'statistical intellect' that he would take a small percentage of people and make a stereotype-ruling on the quality of 'all' participants. How many teams could he have really taken a good look at? 10-12 ? 15?

That does seem especially harsh to look at 15+/- teams and a handful of leagues and write what amounts to "my guys are far superior to the rest" - which is really what it sounded like to me.

Hey, I don't have ANY clue what happened in NYC - but I didn't see too many scramblers in Vegas. Were any of the scramblers subscriber's to baseballhq?? lol.

I find it shocking that a man of Shandler's obvious fantasy baseball prowess didn't just jump in and steal the $100k from us

While Ron may have a lot of credentials in AL or NL only leagues, I can't find any full ML league he's ever won. I'm very impressed by the AL/NL success, but 'this ain't that.'

How about it, Ron? We can put in a call to the Cardinals to get these posts to you, I suppose - have any time for a response?

Dyv

p.s. Ron, if you want to try a 5x5 ML roto league let me know. Perhaps you've dominated these before and they are child's play to you and your folks. If you want a competitive league, let me know - I can put up as many Leaderboard guys as you might like. 5 of the top 10 in the WCOFB last year - you won't find dead money here

[ March 29, 2004, 08:25 AM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

la Jolla · Post by **la Jolla** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 2:49 am

hey guys, i am a subscriber to shandlers site (hq) and obviously have read all the articles by him and his straight draft writers about their philosophies in drafting middle infielders first and the whole positional scarcity stuff. now having read that, i still chose to use my own stradegy which was to take the highest ranked player, regardless of position, remaining on my draft list and try to focus on potential 20/20 or better hitters early on. that being said, i am not proclaiming my way of drafting to be superior to anyone elses, just the way i decided to draft my team. the reason i am making this post is that the article shandler wrote alluded to me personally, i'm the team that drafted all my outfielders in the first 8 rounds, and i take offense to him saying what he did and painting a picture that i am some clueless player. i played in last years wcofb contest and placed in the money which doesn't necessarily mean that i am good (because i didn't win the whole thing), but shows that i am by no means clueless. i cannot believe that shandler had the audacity to write what he did about the people that particpated in the draft when he is running a business that targets the very same people. that is one of the worst marketing mistakes i have ever seen and i for sure will not re-up my membership with hq or buy his book again. mastersball.com is a better site i.m.o. anyway. shandler can take his book and his comments and stick them up his ass as far as i'm concerned. well, one more day to go, good luck everybody.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 2:57 am

lajolla, Don't hold back. Tell us what you really think. LOL!

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:26 am

I'll echo lajolla in that I believe too many people attach themselves to a certain strategy, and hence, see all other strategies as inferior. Being on the outside and publicly critisizing a player because he used a strategy different than the one you tout is, I believe, self serving. It's all the more so when you compare that particular player with players who were, in your opinion "prepared", but who also conviniently happen to be part of your group.

As I said in a previous post. One thing I noticed in my draft was similarity of strategies. It was as if everyone was reading from the same book. I adjusted my own strategy on the fly in order to, in my view, take advantage of what was going on. I would assume lajolla did the same thing. If middle infielders are going off the board at rapid speed, is it better to take a stud outfielder in responce, or continue to blindly draft mediocre middle infielders simply because thats what the "book" says? It could be debated, but knocking someone for simply going against the grain cannot.

a · Post by a » Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:08 am

In the Vegas #3 league, there were certain MI's I targeted in the draft. I decided if I didn't get them, I would not reach because raw numbers will win this league. I held off grabbing a servicable MI to grab the above average/potential breakout OFer or pitcher. I'm glad I did, I was able to grab 2 starting 2b at the end. Though they are not great numbers, they won't hurt me either. (The sad part is one of them went down the very next day, Ellis

At least i used my very last pick on another MI, just in case.

mystydog · Post by **mystydog** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:20 am

Lajolla I think it is foolish for anyone to be critical of your startegy until they see the result...what everyone sometimes forgets with all this ranmdom talk of strategy is that it all comes down to numbers...it does not matter how or which position you get them from as long as you get them and get more of them than anyone else...

God Our Team Sucks · Post by **God Our Team Sucks** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 5:46 am

Mr. Lajolla,

I think the crux of Shandler's message was that outfielders are the easiest hitters to fill late in the draft, and by loading up on them early, you put yourself in a position of taking less than ideal players late.

His points did bear some fruit, however, when your team ended up with Chad Moeller and Einar Diaz as starting catchers, and a choice of Todd Walker (who'd be good if Grudz goes down) or Willie Harris (eventually, if he keeps up his batting eye) as a starting mid-fielder. Whether the rest of your team can make up for those shortfalls remains to be seen.

But you do have Soriano, and you've obviuosly got the strongest outfield.

Perhaps Shandler should have been more careful with his wording not to offend any current client. I think perhaps he blended two separate thoughts -- that there was one guy who obviously sucked with his picks, and another guy (you) who chose possibly too many OF's early. On the other hand, there are six reserve slots in this league, and that does change the draft a bit. So it wasn't that you couldn't select another outfielder. You just couldn't select an outfielder for a while, even if that guy was the best value at the time.

Personally, I don't think you have a weak team, although I think the Puffins team and the f-scubba team are stronger in your league. But I applaud your courage for speaking your mind.

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:21 am

I'm sure these posts have already gotten back to Ron and in hind sight he no doubt wishes he would have tread a little more softly, however we all know that in every league we would look at some guys at the table and think to ourselves "dead money". Problem is those guys are sitting there looking at you and thinking the same thing

. Will Ron's guys do well in the contest? Probably. Knowledge of players at the end of the draft is what usually seperates the so-called experts from the local bar league guys and guarantees a top half league finish.

It might be interesting if Ron used his projections (which are projections so can't be counted on as gospel) on his guys teams to see where they fall point wise.

Hojin and Aram averaged 80% in each category on their way to last years championship. You can go higher in some and lower in some but when all is said and done you'll need around 1560 points.

This is what you'll need to accumulate in each category in order to get an 80% score.

Ba. Avg. = .281

HR = 282

RBI = 1091

R = 1117

SB = 140

W = 104

SV = 93

ERA = 3.72

SO = 1197

RAT = 1.269

45 teams is a small sample size but it's the only one we have played under identical rules.

In conclusion I think Ron's comments were pretty much what we all think before the first pitch is thrown and that is we like our chances and those teams who took players we didn't like are up $hit creek. It did leave him open for criticism and might not have been a good business move but if you don't strongly believe what you are saying is the best way to do things, then why would anyone pay $90 a year for your oppinions.

[ March 29, 2004, 01:24 PM: Message edited by: Leaderboard Sports ]

Fantasy Jungle · Post by **Fantasy Jungle** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 7:47 am

Say what you want, Shandler is a jackass.

Its so tired and old to hear all of these self proclaimed "experts" make comments like this when they dont have the stones to compete in any of the contests themselves. Instead, they all join in the same "experts" leagues with the same people every year, and then they tout themselves as winners of Expert League 6000, 2nd place champs of of the Baseball HQ Experts Leagues, 7th Annual Burger King Arizona Fall League champ blah blah blah.

The fact of the matter is this. Most of these so called experts are too cheap to get into contests whether they are live drafts or contests on the net. Put your money where your mouth is, and play the game. Fronting someones team for 30% is the chicken #%$@ way out in case, god forbid, one of these experts doesnt win. Baseball, of all fantasy sports, is the most wide open for strategies and different player evals because there are so many teams and so many games. Were there some teams that may have drafted bad??? Of course, but at least everyone had the balls to pay their money and take a shot. The real "experts" are all of the people that are playing, not the ones who talk and write about it, case closed.

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:03 am

Ron's Christmas Card list is getting smaller with each post - or so it seems.

My team has a subscription to his site and I read his comments. I think he was a bit harsh although I did think think teams would be a bit better prepared. NY#4 had several teams that were definitely less prepared but no team was as bad as Ron seems to indicate. Our draft was well-paced and picks seemed to be about how they should be. Speed was easily the premium category but I think that was an overall situation.

He is a bit fixated on his concepts in drafting. The team from his site is in one of the NY leagues and I know that got Pujols at the 4th pick. I suspect they used his concepts in drafting so it will be interesting to see how they fare.

If nothing else, he is faithful to his beliefs.

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:36 am

Originally posted by Fantasy Jungle:

Say what you want, Shandler is a jackass.

Its so tired and old to hear all of these self proclaimed "experts" make comments like this when they dont have the stones to compete in any of the contests themselves. Instead, they all join in the same "experts" leagues with the same people every year, and then they tout themselves as winners of Expert League 6000, 2nd place champs of of the Baseball HQ Experts Leagues, 7th Annual Burger King Arizona Fall League champ blah blah blah.

The fact of the matter is this. Most of these so called experts are too cheap to get into contests whether they are live drafts or contests on the net. Put your money where your mouth is, and play the game. Fronting someones team for 30% is the chicken #%$@ way out in case, god forbid, one of these experts doesnt win. Baseball, of all fantasy sports, is the most wide open for strategies and different player evals because there are so many teams and so many games. Were there some teams that may have drafted bad??? Of course, but at least everyone had the balls to pay their money and take a shot. The real "experts" are all of the people that are playing, not the ones who talk and write about it, case closed. Perfectly stated!

To be honest, though, I don't believe these guys don't join general public leagues because they are too cheap. Rather, they don't join them because the risk of failure would put their "strategies" and "expert opinions" at risk. I mean, who would buy Shandlers book if he were to finish 79th in this thing?

Mind you, I don't wish to make a blanket statement, as many industry types have chosen to take this risk and have indeed entered themselves into this contest. For those, many kudos.

But in the end, the reality of it all, is that, contrary what the Shandlers of the world want to sell you, there is no "book" on fantasy baseball. It's a simple game, made complicated by those who wish to profit from it. I've seen people have success by taking pitchers early, pitchers late, outfielders in the middle...whatever. The only constant is that to succeed, one must have an opinion, and a strong, educated one at that. Without an opinion of your own, you become a disciple of those trying to sell you their own opinions.

Funny part is, whoever wins this thing could probably go out, write a book, describe how he drafted his players, and he himself will have disciples as well. If he happens to have drafted outfielders in the first 8 rounds, you can be certain outfielders will go damn quick at next years NFBC.

To me, its about one thing. An opinion. I enter this contest with the belief that my knowledge of baseball will allow me to have more accurate opinions than most. I could be right, I could be wrong. But I'm willing to put in my $1250 to prove as such. And even so, I still wouldn't dare put down a strategy that differs from my own.

[ March 29, 2004, 02:41 PM: Message edited by: Rey ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:43 am

In the twenty years I have been doing fantasy baseball (Gee, tell me how you used to do it when YOU were young, Grampa! :rolleyes: ), the draft takes the most work and is the most fun. After that (yes, you have to manage the waiver wires) it is the luck of the turned ankle or two that will separate most of the teams. Especially without trades. I was not unprepared, but did toss out two names that had already been taken (a pox upon me). In general, my league seemed to be having fun ($100k would be great, but I think we all had it in perspective) and we all had our separate strategies, which by and large were the same as any number of experts...to make calculated risks once the low-hanging fruit were gone (I mean, anyone can pick A-Rod, right). Yes, I am one of those that closed out my UT position a little earlier than normal with my 6th outfielder, but in my mind Dmitri Young is a good pick in the twelfth round. My whole strategy was to lock down offense, try to finish in the middle of the pack with saves, and get my other pitchers from mostly 2nd and 3rd starters who will not kill my ERA and WHIP. For the most part, I was successful and am planning on having fun all year, not matter what anyone says about my strategy or lack of strategy. If I win, I am a genius (

). If I don't, I guess I am just one of the 194 losers (

).

SoxFan · Post by **SoxFan** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 8:43 am

This sounds a little like how everyone was all up-in-arms at Billy Packer's comments re: St. Joe's not deserving a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Many people act like he was advocating that they should be a #8 or something, when in actuality all he said was that he felt that OSU should have been a #1 and St. Joe's a #2. Seems like much ado about nothing, IMO.

Regarding the NFBC, I think that Ron's comments were generally on the mark, if not maybe a little harsh. I think everyone saw some examples of folks who did not seem very prepared - I certainly did in NYC. However, I also saw a ton of very astute owners at our draft site, which Ron also mentioned. I certainly expected everyone to fit into the latter category, but not necessarily the former.

And like others have said in previous posts, there is no one "guaranteed" strategy. Some focused on scarcity (positional or categorical), some focused on best player available, some focused on pitching, etc. Any one of these strategies can win, as this is just a foundation. The rest is up to luck, FAAB bids, roster cut decisions, luck and luck.

Guest · Post by **Guest** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:15 am

For a bunch of people who now claim to have no respect for Mr. Shandler you sure are wasting a lot of your time bickering about him.

The article that he posted was intended for the readers of his site. It was not intended for all of you to read. He has every right to express his opinion about things to his subscribers FROM A PERSPECTIVE meant for his subscribers. He is not ignorant enough to believe that one strategy is the end-all be-all of fantasy baseball. In fact, he routinely tests different strategies in his experts leagues just to comment on them to his readers. He can and does believe that some strategies are better than others - and don't we all? He preaches about what he thinks is the right way to play because he and others have had continued success playing that way. Agree or disagree but stop wetting your bed because you are one of the people he is referring to. Have confidence in what you are doing and if you succeed then great.

Bashing someone because they expressed an opinion to subscribers who expect (and respect) his opinion is ridiculous.

viper · Post by **viper** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 9:26 am

Good point. We may not agree with everything he writes but I admit that the first articles I read each day are from his site. I don't agree with everything but I am a statistically driven player and his stuff seems to be the best out there in this area.

I think this thread has about gone about as far as it should.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:02 am

Originally posted by :

For a bunch of people who now claim to have no respect for Mr. Shandler you sure are wasting a lot of your time bickering about him.

The article that he posted was intended for the readers of his site. It was not intended for all of you to read. He has every right to express his opinion about things to his subscribers FROM A PERSPECTIVE meant for his subscribers. He is not ignorant enough to believe that one strategy is the end-all be-all of fantasy baseball. In fact, he routinely tests different strategies in his experts leagues just to comment on them to his readers. He can and does believe that some strategies are better than others - and don't we all? He preaches about what he thinks is the right way to play because he and others have had continued success playing that way. Agree or disagree but stop wetting your bed because you are one of the people he is referring to. Have confidence in what you are doing and if you succeed then great.

Bashing someone because they expressed an opinion to subscribers who expect (and respect) his opinion is ridiculous. Yeah, he's allowed freedom of speech but we aren't?

Welcome to America, brother... freedom to have an opinion only belongs to people who have your opinion, right?

Friggin fascist,

Dyv

p.s. You may not understand this, but as baseball enthusiasts - we ARE his audience... whether we pay him for subscriptions or not. It's funny that one of the guys he mocked is one of his subscribers.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:11 am

What is this??

Is this not america?

This is not china!

This is not russia!

This is not the place where they brought down the wall, this is america!

We have the right to say what we want to say

We have the right to do what we want to do

We have the freedom of expression!

We have the freedom of choice!

And you, chinese, black, green, purple, jew,

You have the right to listen to whoever you want to, and even the Gekko crew!

So all you right-wingers, left-wingers, bigots, communists,

There is a place for you in this world!

Because this is the land of the free and the home of the brave!

- by you know who...

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:13 am

So being that somebody spends $1,250 bucks to join a league means they have to be Very prepared or have 6,000 players on there list , or they have to draft MI , then Catchers then Outfeilders and so on ......to some people this is still FUN and $1,250 is not alot to them(it is to me dont get me wrong)but my point is some people Join these leagues to HAVE FUN>........They may not be the most prepared or follow every god name # in the game ...BUT just join to have fun meet some new folks and enhance there baseball season .....i see know need to judge somebody by the money they spend on the a league or by the positions they draft heavy or light on with there 1st 10 picks. give it a break

Karch Adonis · Post by **Karch Adonis** » Mon Mar 29, 2004 10:26 am

It's a simple game, made complicated by those who wish to profit from it.

Funny part is, whoever wins this thing could probably go out, write a book, describe how he drafted his players, and he himself will have disciples as well.It's just going to take time. If the NFBC survives and grows (and other tournies appear that follow the same rules and offer large payouts, etc.) then there will be no place to hide - this will either be revealed as:

1) Essentially a game of luck (Craps, etc.), where an "expert player" is someone who consistently finishes in the top half of any given field, simply because he fields a functional team each year (in other words, doesn't play the field and hard-ways). In that case guys who make a living touting will never play, since all it can do is hurt one's reputation in the field.

or

2) A true test of skill (Hold 'Em, etc.) where the same cast of characters are always in the hunt - not in 'expert leagues', but in 'real' competition against hundreds of participants. In this case touts will have to play, since the game itself will create 'stars' and that's who will be selling books.

Having just finished a draft over the weekend, and reading all of the hair-splitting arguments up here about who won this thing with their 29th pick, I'm leaning towards option (1). Outside of the 'homers' present in every draft (guys who will load up on Yankees, even if they are out for the year), I don't see enough difference in the majority of starting lineups to indicate that the order of the top 100 teams will be decided by anything other than 'luck' (injury, unpredicted breakout season, trade to a better/worse situation, etc.)