Jose Bautista

[DOUGHBOYS]

A worthy conversation was begun in the 'Early Draft Results thread that was interesting enough to continue...


Numbers are squarely on the side of Bautista. Since changing from a puny utility player in 2009 to the game's most prodigious power hitter in 2010, he has never hit below 27 home runs. Even in injured seasons.
Last year, his numbers were .250/108/40/110/8
Those are first round numbers, folks.
Yet, he is going in the first three rounds.

In the meantime, Giancarlo Stanton is taken in the first round of nearly every draft. Track record is clearly on Bautista's side when putting the two side by side.
Stanton, even at his yound age, gets hurt more than Bautista. In six seasons, Stanton has only reached 150 games, one time.
Stanton has never hit 40 homers, yet drafted like he does it regularly.
He's only stolen more than five bases, just once. No advantage there.
Over the last five years, Stanton has hit as low as .249, as high as .290
Over the last five years, Bautista has hit as low as .241, as high as .302
No advantage there.

With numbers history and injury history on Bautista's side, why is Stanton taken in the first round of every draft, while Bautista wonders?
Let's go away from history.
Stanton is a highlight machine. His struck balls are among the hardest in the game. Some can seemingly go through a fence.
He is the Aroldis Chapman of hitters miles per hour.
That visual of Stanton hitting balls so hard, may stay in drafters minds.
It shouldn't. At least in fantasy terms.
We don't get extra points for a ball off the bat at more miles per hour.
This is where the Chapman comp fails.
Chapman can throw harder than any other pitcher, consistently
Stanton does not square the ball up more than other hitters.
A fence scratching homer is the same as a 460 foot bomb in real and fantasy baseball.

Maybe, it's that Stanton was leading the league in homers before getting injured last year?
Or the sexiness of owning a 26 year old over a 35 year old?
Mostly, I believe Stanton is taken in the first round because drafters like betting on the come.
Bautista, in most minds, has had his peak years.
Stanton, in most minds has a huge season, or two, or five still in him.
Getting back to the Numerish, Stanton had 27 homers in 74 games, before hurt.
Even if just doubling those numbers, Stanton matches Bautista's best ever home run output.

Have I answered why Bautista is taken from rounds one through three?
No.
Every drafter has a different thought on Bautista.
Possible steroids, age, possible injury, lack of sexiness, the want for speed, batting average, and roster construction all conspire to work against Bautista.
His lineup, ball park, division, protection in the lineup, and past numbers all working for him.

It does make for great conversation.