Are Closers The Fantasy Baseball Equivalent Of The RB?

[COZ]

As I get deeper into my first DC, I am kicking myself for not getting one of the elite closers early. Once the top guys are off the board there is a HUGE drop-off. With the Yankees (go figure!) hoarding 3 elite guys now and with Chapman rendering Batances/Miller as mere set-up guys presumably, there are a lot of shitty pitchers being annoited with the "Closer" tag. Whereas I once thought Power (read:HR's) to be at a premium, I now see Closers, who will not destroy your ratios and who will not lose their role mere weeks into the season, as an endangered fantasy baseball species.

After years of playing the FAAB wad-blowing weekly exercise of guess-this-week's-closer, and, after last year drafting two elite closers and not having to blow FAAB to chase the flavor of the week, I have come to value the peace of mind, the FAAB savings, the ratio preservation, and....oh yeah, the actual SAVES that an elite closer provides. As a guy who used to think I was smart enough to play the Closer-roulette game, I have completely flip-flopped my thoughts on the "value" of truly elite Closers, and now feel elite Closers are not respected enough in our crazy game; not just for the saves or ratio preservation, but almost as importantly for the opportunity cost of FAAB savings and bench-space savings. Anyone else seen the light when it comes to drafting Closers?






For those who wish to view the full-length version of this great movie scene: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7ATBbrfmzc0

COZ

[KJ Duke]

Good analogy. But the strategy flipside, like with drafting RBs ... if you instead go heavy WR in the early rounds and pickup the right RBs late (or in FAAB), you can end up with a more beastly team. Ditto with waiting on the closer. If you draft to achieve the warm feeling of a top RB or closer, it comes at a price.

[Gekko]

One way or another, u need a top closer to compete. Securing one on draft day is a good strategy

[COZ]

Good analogy. But the strategy flipside, like with drafting RBs ... if you instead go heavy WR in the early rounds and pickup the right RBs late (or in FAAB), you can end up with a more beastly team. Ditto with waiting on the closer. If you draft to achieve the warm feeling of a top RB or closer, it comes at a price.

Excellent points. And as a guy who went with the so-called elite RB contrarian play for the most part this year, thinking I could get enough quality mid-tier WR's to compete, I was summarily burned this year in fantasy football. Maybe I'm just getting too cute and trying to be contrarian, but I think this year especially with Chapman going to the Yankees, I am learning the drop-off from top closers comes quick and fast.

COZ

[Bjs2025]

I landed Doolittle, Will Smith and Carter "Walk back to the dugout" Capps in rounds 9, 13 and 21 of a DC and am pretty happy with it.

[Edwards Kings]

Sorry. Not that easy. Ask those who drafted top 10 or 11 "elite" closers last year like ADP darlings like Holland, Betances, Cisek, and Storen.

Or ask those who picked Boxberger, Tolleson, or Familia. Thirty to forty percent of the closers will loose their jobs and the carnage is not limited to the top 10. This position is probably most reliant research and contingencies. And a healthy dose of FAAB.

[Bjs2025]

Sorry. Not that easy. Ask those who drafted top 10 or 11 "elite" closers last year like ADP darlings like Holland, Betances, Cisek, and Storen.

Or ask those who picked Boxberger, Tolleson, or Familia. Thirty to forty percent of the closers will loose their jobs and the carnage is not limited to the top 10. This position is probably most reliant research and contingencies. And a healthy dose of FAAB.

This is why I'd rather get a few of the "lesser" closers and get on skills over roles. I'm not going to be a puppet for Dusty Baker's decision making. Usually if your team drafted enough value finishing 8th of 15 in saves isn't going to kill you.

[JohnP]

Coz - interesting subject! It got me thinking about NFBC and closers. Here are the top 10 closers drafted in each of the last 5 years, their adp, and their year end player rating.

2011 adp pr
marmol 81 149
bell 87 46
soria 88 169
wilson 90 122
feliz 95 102
rivera 101 19
papelbon 110 48
rodriguez 120 124
axford 121 25
thornton 133 465

ave adp of top 10 = 102.6

2012 adp pr
kimbrel 66 44
rivera 92 680
papelbon 95 66
axford 101 86
bell 115 230
storen 123 565
putz 126 157
valverde 127 135
hanrahan 128 99
wilson 131 920

ave adp of top 10 = 110.4

2013 adp pr
kimbrel 46 33
chapman 72 60
papelbon 88 147
rodney 107 74
soriano 115 86
motte 122 325
rivera 124 56
nathan 125 50
johnson 133 52
romo 135 88

ave adp of top 10 = 106.7

2014 adp pr
kimbrel 46 63
jansen 62 59
holland 67 64
rosenthal 75 62
chapman 88 111
uehara 93 126
nathan 94 108
robertson 108 68
perkins 111 115
romo 116 160

ave adp of top 10 = 86.0

2015 adp pr
chapman 39 72
kimbrel 50 62
holland 57 128
robertson 75 68
melancon 81 39
jansen 86 100
allen 90 97
betances 96 185
cishek 104 519
rosenthal 106 40

ave adp of top 10 = 78.4

I don't know that you can read too much into all of this but the data points to a trend of closers being drafted earlier. Not only are more being drafted earlier, the elite are going so much earlier than in early years. In 2011 you wouldn't think about taking a closer until the 6th round. Last year Chapman was going in the third. Yikes - 2012 was a bad year to be drafting closers! Kind of fun seeing some of those names. Oh Carlos Marmol....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sometimes, adp is a mirage. When drafting early, I believe the top Closers are at more of a premium. They are the only Closers assured of a job come April.
As seen with Luke Gregerson and possibly Roberto Osuna, the average or marginal Closers can be stripped of their jobs with the stroke of a trade.
Early drafters also do not have 30 Closers to pick from.
Clarification is yet to be determined in places like San Diego, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Colorado.
And drafters of Cishek, Boxberger, Ziegler, Casilla, Doolittle, and Tolleson all have to hold their collective breaths hoping for no change.
When jobs are clarified in March, Closers tend to get drafted later in the 'Big Drafts'.

[Gekko]

It's crystal clear to anyone who relies on actual data, in order to draft a top 10 closer, u need to do so earlier than ever before. This is what the data indicates