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With DC drafts in full swing, could there be a changing of the guard at the top spot in drafts? Is Bryce Harper on the way up and Mike Trout on the way down? Stats over the last year appear to be heading that way, and with Mike Trout having little to no support in the Angels lineup with Pujols recovering, will his numbers suffer even more?

All I know is, I am drafting in the 2 year DHDC at the #1 position tomorrow (oddly enough) and I am contemplating my pick, giving serious consideration to Bryce Harper. I realize it was just one year for Harper, but does Trout or Harper have more upside? Steals are down. Batting average is down. (Plus I have Trout in the 2nd year draft)

Thoughts?

None of the above? I currently like Goldschmidt as my number one guy this year. I think he is the safest of the three and contributes positively in all five hitting categories. I had Trout ranked second and Harper ranked third, but am revisiting that and starting to lean the other way. The Angels lineup scares me. Trout has little protection in the lineup and may have far fewer RBI opportunities than Harper. His SB advantage over Harper also is shrinking. With Revere and Murphy, the Nats lineup has improved modestly, and I don't see the Angels doing much to their lineup. Thus, I'm starting to wonder why anyone would pitch to Trout these days. I may go back-and-forth a few more times on these rankings, but that's how I currently see things.

Mike

Trout is not a clear cut number one pick anymore. He only hs himself to blame. If attempting more stolen bases, he would be that number one guy. He can. He hasn't lost speed. He is just not interested.
Harper does not have Trout's speed. And it seems like his interest in stealing bases has also waned.
So, with a little bit of edge in that department to Trout, because he CAN steal a lot more bases than Harper, we move on to the other four categories.
Who is hitting behind Trout or Harper is of little consequence. There is nobody besides those two, to fear in either lineup.
It is the power categories in which Harper has a clear cut advantage over Trout. Trout hits most of his homers on pitches below the belt. There isn't a better low ball power hitter from the right side in baseball.
That said, Harper isn't that picky. He can take any location of a pitch over any wall.

Harper looked like Barry Bonds last year. Like Rogers Hornsby once said, "I feel sorry for pitchers that have to throw to me."
I felt the same way when Harper hit last year.
Harper has figured it out.
His star is on the rise, while Trout's is plateauing a bit.
Without Trout running, his reliability is the only edge Trout has over Harper.
Trout plays defense under control. Harper improved in that area last year. But still, scares the bejeezus out of his owners with some dives and fence play.

Goldschmidt is the opposite of both Trout and Harper on the bases. He's a supreme opportunist, even though not blessed with the speed of either outfielder.
Speed means a lot in real baseball. To fantasy players, it only means something if stealing bases.
To put it bluntly, Goldschmidt will LOOK to steal a base. Trout and Harper do not.
Goldschmidt has less power than Harper, but matches Trout.
Except for one injury a couple of years ago, Goldschmidt is as sturdy as Trout and deemed reliable as they come.

For me, if 'shooting for the moon' and wanting a man who probably has not reached his peak, Harper is the man.
If wanting reliability and still want 15-20 stolen bases with power, Goldy is your guy.
If wanting reliability and the POSSIBILITY of stolen bases to go with power, Trout is your guy.
It'll be fun revisiting this next year. One of these three may make this conversation moot.
Or somebody from the supposed next tier may make it an even harder choice.

I was always under the impression that Pujols hates it when guys try to steal bags while he is at the plate. With Albert out to begin the year we may see a big jump in early swipes for Mr Trout

EA Sports wrote:I was always under the impression that Pujols hates it when guys try to steal bags while he is at the plate. With Albert out to begin the year we may see a big jump in early swipes for Mr Trout

Shh

EA Sports wrote:I was always under the impression that Pujols hates it when guys try to steal bags while he is at the plate. With Albert out to begin the year we may see a big jump in early swipes for Mr Trout

I thought about this too.
But Trout was on first base 212 times with other batters up besides Pujols, and never attempted a stolen base either.
Yes, I made that up.
But, the point is made.

He only attempted 18 stolen bases.
There had to have been many more opportunities, Pujols aside.

40/40

Gekko wrote:40/40

Stop with the craziness. At best he is a 55/30 player in 2016.

BK METS wrote:With DC drafts in full swing, could there be a changing of the guard at the top spot in drafts? Is Bryce Harper on the way up and Mike Trout on the way down? Stats over the last year appear to be heading that way, and with Mike Trout having little to no support in the Angels lineup with Pujols recovering, will his numbers suffer even more?

All I know is, I am drafting in the 2 year DHDC at the #1 position tomorrow (oddly enough) and I am contemplating my pick, giving serious consideration to Bryce Harper. I realize it was just one year for Harper, but does Trout or Harper have more upside? Steals are down. Batting average is down. (Plus I have Trout in the 2nd year draft)

Thoughts?

You really want to put your faith in a player that dies his hair platinum?

http://www.foxsports.com/buzzer/story/b ... mlb-011216

Gekko wrote:40/40

40/40
40/10
40/15
55/30
35/12
Anybody can throw out numbers in January.
And any, can be right.
But mostly, wrong.

If you cant decide between Harper Trout & Goldie just take Kershaw

Trout not near as quick as he was when he was lighter. That is why he was so elite stealing bases. Speed still there. Quickness getting up to that speed is not what it once was. Simply stating that he can do this or that like he once did, is not accurate IMO. That being said, he could certainly steal more than he has of late.

I think the Pujols narrative jumped the shark a few years ago. The 1.000 OPS guy had the cache to dictate whatever he wants -- the .785 guy? Not so much.

FOr me, even more troublesome than 11 steals for Trout is 7 caught stealing. Most teams are aware of the 75 percent success rate necessary for an attempted steal to be a positive play. The good thing is before 2015, Trout's success rate was much better - or Chad is right and the quickness/first step is costing him, which makes sense.

I also have a non-numerish theory that unless it is your teams business model to just run and run, steals are proportional to how well the team (or player) is performing in general. Years Texas is competing, Elvis runs. The other years - not so much.

FWIW - my #1 is Goldschmidt.

ToddZ wrote:I think the Pujols narrative jumped the shark a few years ago. The 1.000 OPS guy had the cache to dictate whatever he wants -- the .785 guy? Not so much.

FOr me, even more troublesome than 11 steals for Trout is 7 caught stealing. Most teams are aware of the 75 percent success rate necessary for an attempted steal to be a positive play. The good thing is before 2015, Trout's success rate was much better - or Chad is right and the quickness/first step is costing him, which makes sense.

I also have a non-numerish theory that unless it is your teams business model to just run and run, steals are proportional to how well the team (or player) is performing in general. Years Texas is competing, Elvis runs. The other years - not so much.

FWIW - my #1 is Goldschmidt.

So, if the steals are proportional to team success logic holds then does that mean Goldschmidt stops running this year with Arizona playing more meaningful games? Because if he drops to 8-10 SB then how much better is he than Abreu that can be had 20 picks later.

Teufel Hunden wrote:
So, if the steals are proportional to team success logic holds then does that mean Goldschmidt stops running this year with Arizona playing more meaningful games? Because if he drops to 8-10 SB then how much better is he than Abreu that can be had 20 picks later.

No the opposite -- or at least maintains current level.

Again, just a goofy theory but steals are an effort thing so unless you're into padding personal stats (Dee Gordon) then winning teams are in a better frame of mind and will be more willing to extend the effort.

Guys like Mark Reynolds and Curtis Granderson had an inordinate number of steals in a year where they were playing well in general - again a mental thing.

I think it's a combination of things for Trout that concern me. Biggest is, his batting average is way down over the past two years and although the steals are concerning, he has no lineup support and that leads to more walks and less run production both in runs scored and RBIs. He is still a top 3 pick, but going on what i saw last year from Harper, he is my number one. Trout is number two and Goldy (less steals this year) number three. Kershaw not in my top 10. No pitchers deserve to be there. Over abundance of pitching this year.

A big thing is the WANT to steal. Harper and Trout just plain don't seem that interested.
And their teams certainly are not going to push them to steal bases.

DOUGHBOYS wrote:A big thing is the WANT to steal. Harper and Trout just plain don't seem that interested.
And their teams certainly are not going to push them to steal bases.

... or maybe team desire ... is it worth the injury risk for middle-of-the-order power bat to run unless game situation calls for it?

DOUGHBOYS wrote:A big thing is the WANT to steal. Harper and Trout just plain don't seem that interested.
And their teams certainly are not going to push them to steal bases.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5764/bryce-harper