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I have been looking at the top 6 rounds of ADP and seeing if any guys are going on a consistent basis that I wouldn't draft in those rounds. The only two guys that stick out in my mind are Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. I have already posted on Lindor and I can see the argument. I am just wondering why Corey Seager is going before Bogaerts?

Corey Seager is 22 years old and a promising young player. I am curious what kind of stat line people drafting him in the 4th round are expecting from him? Corey really doesn't have much speed to speak of. I think he will hit for some power, but how much of it will be this year. Where will the Dodgers hit him in that lineup? I just don't see much room for profit drafting him in the 4th round.

I would rather take my chances with Bogaerts taking another step forward. Bogaerts is 23 and has a couple of years under his belt. I believe he hits in a better ballpark and a better lineup. I think we could see a power spike from him this year.

These are tough posts for folks to respond. We are done with half of our off/season, meaning that study and drafts are getting serious. In other words, folks don't want to tip their hands!
I can though as I have taken all three players mentioned in your post.


NFBC players LOVE the next big thing. Most don't want to miss out. So, they will overdraft for the thrill of having that player.
We can call this 'Harpering'.
Drafters 'harped' on Bryce Harper for a few years before he finally figured it out last year.
The first three years of his drafters were disappointed.
BUT, they had thrill of what COULD BE.
Same with Seager.

I love Seager, much as most liked Harper when he came to the Bigs.
But, the only time I drafted him, I got him in the fifth round.
Feeling that where he is going now, the 4th round, is too high of a price to pay for somebody who could struggle over a full year.
What is contributing to Seager being taken high is last year's rookies.
Bryant, Correa, and Schwarber were instant hits.
Seager's drafters are hoping for the same.

I feel Bogaerts and Lindor are similar. You extol Bogaerts surroundings more than Bogaerts himself.
Lindor, in less time, had more homers and stolen bases than Bogaerts.
THAT is what a lot of drafters are seeing.
Will Bogaerts be a better player than Lindor or Seager this year?
Cover more categories?
You may think he does.
But drafters tend to seek the moon to go with their stars.
Seager and Lindor offer a little more pizazz than Bogaerts.
At the same time, I consider Bogaerts as being more stable and less prone to slumps or being sent down as Seager or Lindor are prone to be.
I can understand why all three are being selected at their ADP.

ChipChopChip wrote:I have been looking at the top 6 rounds of ADP and seeing if any guys are going on a consistent basis that I wouldn't draft in those rounds. The only two guys that stick out in my mind are Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. I have already posted on Lindor and I can see the argument. I am just wondering why Corey Seager is going before Bogaerts?

Corey Seager is 22 years old and a promising young player. I am curious what kind of stat line people drafting him in the 4th round are expecting from him? Corey really doesn't have much speed to speak of. I think he will hit for some power, but how much of it will be this year. Where will the Dodgers hit him in that lineup? I just don't see much room for profit drafting him in the 4th round.

I would rather take my chances with Bogaerts taking another step forward. Bogaerts is 23 and has a couple of years under his belt. I believe he hits in a better ballpark and a better lineup. I think we could see a power spike from him this year.

Exactly WHICH categories do you see Bogaerts beating Seager?
Bogaerts doesn't have a lot of "speed to speak of either" but yes he might have a few more steals than Seager
Bogaerts taking another step forward? Where in BAvg? He hit .320 last year but what did he hit in 2014?

Just a P.S......

I have scorekept for the Rockies rookie league for a few years.
Heads and shoulders above every kid that has passed through here is Corey Seager.
David Dahl, Jonathon Gray, and others I saw for a full year.
I only got to see Seager for six games.
There was nothing else like him before or since.
I fully believe he will be one of the best players in baseball.
Will it be this year?
I don't know.
BUT, like Harper, you know it's going to happen.

I wonder if Seager isn't going to to be the guy who flies up the board until it's impossible to extract any profit from him. I took him mid-fifth round in the first DC in October and felt some flashbacks to chasing Heyward and Hosmer into the third round before their respective ill-fated sophomore seasons. And both of those guys were coming off excellent rookie seasons with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

Corey had just 113 outstanding plate appearances last year. Now, it's easy to talk yourself into reasons why that doesn't matter. His outstanding pedigree and Major League bloodlines; the way he made a mockery of the minor leagues; Vin Scully's man-crush on him; hell, just the way the ball sounds coming off his bat. I think people are contrasting Seager's quick success to Xander's less impressive rookie season and they're projecting a higher ceiling off that scant data. They may be forgetting that Xander made his debut with some very poised AB's in the 2013 post season. Early success is not unusual for young players, be they top prospects or future journeymen.

The league will make adjustments to Seager this year, as they do every player and he'll need to make the proper counter adjustments when he starts getting a steady diet of pitches that trouble him. Just like Xander got eaten alive by sliders in 2014. Pitchers were eager to exploit that weakness again last year, but it wasn't a weakness anymore because Xander put in the hard work to get better and he had the natural pitch recognition skills to refine in the first place.

Captain Hook wrote:

ChipChopChip wrote:I have been looking at the top 6 rounds of ADP and seeing if any guys are going on a consistent basis that I wouldn't draft in those rounds. The only two guys that stick out in my mind are Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager. I have already posted on Lindor and I can see the argument. I am just wondering why Corey Seager is going before Bogaerts?

Corey Seager is 22 years old and a promising young player. I am curious what kind of stat line people drafting him in the 4th round are expecting from him? Corey really doesn't have much speed to speak of. I think he will hit for some power, but how much of it will be this year. Where will the Dodgers hit him in that lineup? I just don't see much room for profit drafting him in the 4th round.

I would rather take my chances with Bogaerts taking another step forward. Bogaerts is 23 and has a couple of years under his belt. I believe he hits in a better ballpark and a better lineup. I think we could see a power spike from him this year.

Exactly WHICH categories do you see Bogaerts beating Seager?
Bogaerts doesn't have a lot of "speed to speak of either" but yes he might have a few more steals than Seager
Bogaerts taking another step forward? Where in BAvg? He hit .320 last year but what did he hit in 2014?

Bogaerts hit .240 in 2014. Also, in 2015, his BABIP was .372, which many (or at least me) think is unsustainable, especially for a guy without great speed. I would be surprised if his batting average does not drop 30-40 points or maybe more. After that, you are looking at a guy who may go 10 HR/10 SB unless he takes a major step up in one department. Also, his counting stats (R, RBI) benefitted last year by getting moved up in the order (seemed like he hit third for a large chunk of the second half of the year). Will he continue to hit that high in the order? If so, his counting stats still should be pretty strong.

I have not drafted Correa, Lindor, C. Seager or Bogaerts this year. I doubt that they would be drafted this high but for the fact that they play SS and that is a particularly weak position. Thus, most drafters are faced with a choice of using a high draft pick for one of the better SS or waiting on the position. So far, I've been waiting on SS.

Last year, Bogaerts went 7/84/81/10/.320. In the last two drafts that I did, Bogaerts went in Rounds 4 and 5. In both of those drafts, I wound up with boring Asdrubal Cabrera in Rounds 18 and 19. Last year, Cabrera went 15/66/58/6/.265. I think Bogaerts batting average is coming down, and am not confident that either his HR or SB will increase materially (although I suspect he will grow into some more power). I also think Cabrera's counting stats will improve modestly, with health, because the Mets lineup should score more runs than the Rays last year (reasonable minds could differ on this). Who would I rather have? Bogaerts, of course. But do I think the difference is worth 14-15 rounds? At this time, I do not.

If I was going to invest a fifth round pick on a SS, I would rank them: Seager, Bogaerts, Lindor. I think Seager has by far the biggest upside of the three. I am not convinced that the power and speed that Lindor showed last year will show again at the same rate over a full season. I also do not like the Indians lineup.

Just my two cents.

Mike

I agree that people are not wanting to show their hands with drafting season coming up. I am just curious what kind of stat line people are thinking seager is going to put up for their fourth round selection. The more I think about it, the more I think I am going to wait in future drafts until later to grab a SS.

ChipChopChip wrote:I agree that people are not wanting to show their hands with drafting season coming up. I am just curious what kind of stat line people are thinking seager is going to put up for their fourth round selection. The more I think about it, the more I think I am going to wait in future drafts until later to grab a SS.

well you can find lots of projections out there but let's look at what Bill James thinks
21/88/93/6/289
Higher on some and lower on some than Todd

Still how many shortstops do you think will exceed that?

Steamer
17,69,67,5,.265

If he hits the Bill James projections it is a solid pick. I will invest in someone else with my 4th round pick. I guess I am willing to miss out on the breakout year.